Analysis of the Future Land Use Land Cover Changes in the Gaborone Dam Catchment Using CA-Markov Model: Implications on Water Resources
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Description of the Study Area
2.2. LULC Data Sources and Classification
2.3. A Model Approach
2.4. LULC Modelling with CA-Markov Model
2.5. CA-Markov Model Validation
3. Results
3.1. CA-Markov Model Validation
3.2. Past LULC Changes and Markovian Probability Transition Matrices
3.3. Simulation of LULC Changes for 2035
4. Discussion
4.1. CA-Markov Model Validation
4.2. Simulation of LULC Changes for 2035
4.3. Implications of LULC Changes on Water Resources
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Year | Sensor | Spatial Resolution | Path/Row | No. of Bands | Date of Aquisition | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1984, 1995 and 2005 | TM | 30m | p172 and r077/078 | 7 | 6 July 1984 5 July 1995 5 June 2005 | USGS |
2015 | OLI | 30m | p172 and r077/078 | 11 | 12 July 2015 | USGS |
Factors | Membership Function Shape | Membership Function | Control Points |
---|---|---|---|
Distance to road (m) | Monotonically increasing | Linear | a = 0, b = 4000 |
Distance to river (m) | Monotonically increasing | Sigmoidal | a = 0, b = 4000 |
Distance to built-up areas (m) | Symmetric | Linear | a = 1, b = 20 c = 30, d = 1700 |
Elevation (m) | Monotonically decreasing | Sigmoidal | c = 1000, d = 1400 |
Slope (°) | Monotonically decreasing | Linear | c = 0, d = 15 |
Kappa Index | Definitions of the Kappa Index Agreement |
---|---|
Kno | Indicates the proportion classified correctly relative to the expected proportion classified correctly by simulation, with no ability to specify the quantity of location accurately |
Klocation | Measures the validation between the classified maps and the simulated map based on a specified location |
Kstandard | The proportion assigned correctly versus the proportion that is correct by chance |
Classified LULC 2015 (km2) | Simulated LULC 2015 (km2) | LULC Differences (km2) | LULC Differences (%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cropland | 1007.77 | 805.55 | −202.21 | −20.066 |
Bare land | 179.79 | 136.67 | −43.11 | −23.981 |
Shrubland | 2600.35 | 2505.80 | −94.55 | −3.636 |
Built-up | 227.15 | 193.66 | −33.49 | −14.742 |
Tree savanna | 326.85 | 699.99 | 373.14 | 114.164 |
Water body | 6.77 | 6.99 | 0.23 | 3.344 |
Total | 4348.66 | 4348.66 |
Transition Years | Cropland | Bare Land | Shrubland | Built-Up | Tree Savanna | Water Body | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cropland | 1984–1995 | 0.668 | 0.0053 | 0.2944 | 0.0042 | 0.028 | 0.0001 |
1995–2005 | 0.6242 | 0.0097 | 0.3345 | 0.0141 | 0.0175 | 0 | |
2005–2015 | 0.7085 | 0.0403 | 0.1821 | 0.0644 | 0.0039 | 0.0007 | |
Bare land | 1984–1995 | 0.1288 | 0.0597 | 0.7106 | 0.0282 | 0.0091 | 0.0637 |
1995–2005 | 0.1222 | 0.2309 | 0.5912 | 0.0424 | 0.0132 | 0.0001 | |
2005–2015 | 0.0988 | 0.2531 | 0.5414 | 0.0484 | 0.0534 | 0.0048 | |
Shrubland | 1984–1995 | 0.1265 | 0.0128 | 0.6795 | 0.0155 | 0.1629 | 0.0027 |
1995–2005 | 0.1211 | 0.0406 | 0.6858 | 0.0354 | 0.1168 | 0.0003 | |
2005–2015 | 0.1976 | 0.0695 | 0.6355 | 0.0446 | 0.0523 | 0.0005 | |
Built-up | 1984–1995 | 0.039 | 0.0086 | 0.237 | 0.7069 | 0.0069 | 0.0015 |
1995–2005 | 0.0695 | 0.0034 | 0.1718 | 0.7474 | 0.0079 | 0 | |
2005–2015 | 0.0877 | 0.0442 | 0.046 | 0.8149 | 0.0071 | 0.0001 | |
Tree savanna | 1984–1995 | 0.0074 | 0.0005 | 0.3661 | 0.0011 | 0.623 | 0.0019 |
1995–2005 | 0.0082 | 0.0045 | 0.4839 | 0.0034 | 0.4997 | 0.0002 | |
2005–2015 | 0.0269 | 0.0073 | 0.703 | 0.008 | 0.2545 | 0.0002 | |
Water body | 1984–1995 | 0.0032 | 0 | 0.1323 | 0 | 0.0683 | 0.7962 |
1995–2005 | 0.0089 | 0.0876 | 0.3678 | 0.0016 | 0.0302 | 0.5038 | |
2005–2015 | 0.0065 | 0.5933 | 0.037 | 0.0028 | 0.0067 | 0.3538 |
2015 | 2035 | LULC Changes between 2015–2035 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LULC Type | Area (km2) | Area (%) | Area (km2) | Area (%) | Area (km2) | Area (%) |
Cropland | 1007.77 | 23.17 | 1270.67 | 29.22 | 262.91 | 26.09 |
Bare land | 179.79 | 4.13 | 280.07 | 6.44 | 100.29 | 55.78 |
Shrubland | 2600.35 | 59.80 | 2183.51 | 50.21 | −416.84 | −16.03 |
Built-up | 227.15 | 5.22 | 376.29 | 8.65 | 149.13 | 65.65 |
Tree savanna | 326.85 | 7.52 | 232.84 | 5.35 | −94.01 | −28.76 |
Water body | 6.77 | 0.16 | 5.28 | 0.12 | −1.48 | −21.89 |
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Matlhodi, B.; Kenabatho, P.K.; Parida, B.P.; Maphanyane, J.G. Analysis of the Future Land Use Land Cover Changes in the Gaborone Dam Catchment Using CA-Markov Model: Implications on Water Resources. Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 2427. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13132427
Matlhodi B, Kenabatho PK, Parida BP, Maphanyane JG. Analysis of the Future Land Use Land Cover Changes in the Gaborone Dam Catchment Using CA-Markov Model: Implications on Water Resources. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13(13):2427. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13132427
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatlhodi, Botlhe, Piet K. Kenabatho, Bhagabat P. Parida, and Joyce G. Maphanyane. 2021. "Analysis of the Future Land Use Land Cover Changes in the Gaborone Dam Catchment Using CA-Markov Model: Implications on Water Resources" Remote Sensing 13, no. 13: 2427. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13132427