Integrating Nighttime Light and Household Survey Data to Monitor Income Inequality: Implications for China’s Socioeconomic Sustainability

Accurate monitoring of income inequality is critical for sustainable socioeconomic development and realizing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, assessing inequality for counties continues to be challenging because of the high cost of household surveys and the limited accuracy of traditional nighttime light (NTL) proxies. To address this gap, we develop the Distribution Matching-based Individual Income Inequality Estimation Model (DM-I3EM), which integrates NTL data with household surveys. The model employs a three-stage workflow: logarithmic transformation of NTL data, estimation of Gini coefficients through Weibull distribution fitting, and selection of region-specific regression models, enabling high-resolution mapping and spatiotemporal analysis of county-level income inequality across China. Results show that DM-I3EM achieves superior performance, with an R² of 0.76 in China’s Eastern region (outperforming conventional NTL-based methods, R ≈ 0.5). By overcoming the spatiotemporal gaps of survey data, the model enables full-coverage estimation, revealing a regional divergence in income inequality across China from 2013 to 2022: inequality is intensifying in northern and western counties while stabilizing in the developed southern coastal regions. Furthermore, spatial agglomeration of inequality has strengthened, particularly in coastal urban clusters. These findings highlight emerging risks to socioeconomic sustainability. This study provides a robust, replicable framework for estimating inequality in data-scarce regions, offering policymakers actionable evidence to identify high-risk areas and design targeted strategies for advancing SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities).