The EU–Mercosur Agreement: An Opportunity or a Threat to the Sustainability of the European and Polish Fruit and Vegetable Sector?

Abstract

This study examines the potential implications of the EU–Mercosur free trade agreement for the Polish horticultural sector, with particular emphasis on sustainability, trade competitiveness, and structural complementarities between the regions. Drawing on production, trade, and demographic data for the EU, Poland, and Mercosur countries, the analysis evaluates the alignment of horticultural supply and demand structures, the degree of intra-industry exchange, and the economic conditions shaping bilateral trade. The research applies the Grubel–Lloyd index and a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) gravity model to assess the determinants of Poland’s horticultural exports to Mercosur. The results indicate that trade remains predominantly inter-industry, reflecting substantial differences in agricultural specialisation and regulatory frameworks. At the same time, rising income levels in Mercosur, together with selected product-level complementarities, indicate emerging export opportunities for Poland. Poland’s trade with the Southern Common Market remains mainly as inter-industry, with the greatest export potential concentrated in high-value-added processed goods. Divergent sustainability standards, particularly in pesticide use, environmental regulation, and carbon-intensive transport, pose structural challenges that may affect the competitiveness and environmental footprint of expanded trade. Overall, the findings provide evidence that closer integration with Mercosur may support export diversification, but requires careful alignment with the EU’s sustainability objectives to ensure resilient and environmentally responsible development of the horticultural sector.

1. Introduction

During the latter half of the twentieth century, global trade underwent profound structural changes. The increasing dominance of manufactured products in exchanges among developed economies reduced the relative weight of agricultural and food products, even as their absolute trade volumes continued to expand [1,2,3]. Simultaneously, the global agri-food market became more diversified than ever before, creating new incentives for region-specific trade agreements whose outcomes depend on the economic, institutional, and regulatory configurations of the partners involved [4,5].

In this evolving global context, the European Union and Mercosur countries concluded negotiations on the trade pillar of the EU–Mercosur Agreement in 2019, followed by agreements on the political and cooperation components in 2020. Subsequent political consensus was achieved in 2024, and in 2025 the European Commission proposed the formal signing of the EU–Mercosur Partnership Agreement (EMPA) and the interim Trade Agreement (iTA) [6,7,8]. The agreement is designed to enhance bilateral trade and investment flows, strengthen supply-chain stability, mitigate climate change—particularly through commitments to reduce deforestation—and promote sustainable development and labour and environmental standards. A bilateral safeguard clause aims to protect vulnerable EU sectors in the event of disruptive import surges [9,10].

Despite the strategic ambitions of the EU–Mercosur Agreement, its potential implications for individual Member States and specific agri-food sectors remain unevenly examined. This is particularly relevant for countries such as Poland, where the fruit and vegetable sector operates under conditions of stagnant domestic consumption, increasing production costs, and recurring production surpluses, especially in temperate-zone fruits and vegetables [11]. In such a context, export expansion is not merely a growth opportunity but a structural necessity for maintaining economic viability and sustainability. However, existing studies on the EU–Mercosur relationship tend to focus on aggregate trade effects, highly competitive Southern European producers, or primary agricultural commodities, while largely overlooking how global trade reconfiguration and sustainability asymmetries interact with the export potential of Central and Eastern European horticulture [12,13]. This creates a research gap concerning the extent to which the agreement may alleviate surplus pressures and support value-added exports from countries like Poland, while remaining consistent with the EU’s environmental and sustainability objectives.

At the same time, trade liberalisation between economies that differ markedly in production structures, cost levels, and regulatory and sustainability frameworks presents important challenges. Mercosur’s competitive advantage is shaped by favourable agro-climatic conditions, economies of scale, and more flexible regulatory approaches to pesticides and land-use, whereas EU producers operate under increasingly stringent sustainability, food safety, and traceability requirements [10,13,14,15,16]. These asymmetries may generate competitive pressures in liberalised markets and complicate the alignment of trade expansion with environmental objectives central to EU policy frameworks such as the European Green Deal.

At the same time, Mercosur represents a large and demographically dynamic market. The region’s growing population and comparatively younger age structure support rising demand for fruits, vegetables, and processed horticultural products, even as persistent socio-economic inequalities and food insecurity challenges remain [1,2,3,4,16,17]. For Poland—a major EU producer of temperate-zone fruits and vegetables—stagnating domestic consumption, rising production costs, and the need to manage seasonal surpluses increase the strategic importance of export markets. Strengthening trade relations with Mercosur may therefore create new opportunities for diversification, higher value-added exports, and improved utilisation of production potential.

However, expanding trade with Mercosur also raises concerns related to the sustainability of global agri-food systems, including differences in pesticide use, environmental regulation, carbon-intensive transport, and risks associated with deforestation and biodiversity loss [13,14,15]. Understanding how these dynamics intersect with the competitiveness and resilience of the Polish horticultural sector is crucial for ensuring that trade integration supports—rather than undermines—the EU’s sustainability objectives.

Against this background, the central research problem of this study is to assess whether the prospective EU–Mercosur free trade agreement can simultaneously enhance the competitiveness of the Polish horticultural sector while remaining compatible with the sustainability goals of the European Green Deal. Accordingly, the following research question is posed: To what extent can this agreement enhance the competitiveness of the Polish horticultural sector while remaining consistent with the sustainability objectives of the European Green Deal, given the structural trade, production, and regulatory conditions and their environmental implications? This requires assessing the degree of structural complementarity between Poland and Mercosur, evaluating the extent of intra-industry versus inter-industry trade, and analysing the economic and sustainability-related factors shaping Poland’s horticultural export potential.

Accordingly, the aim of this study is to examine the production and trade structures of the EU, Poland, and Mercosur; assess bilateral trade intensity using the Grubel–Lloyd index; and identify the determinants of Poland’s exports of horticultural products using a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) gravity model. By integrating economic and sustainability perspectives, the study seeks to provide a comprehensive evaluation of whether deeper integration with Mercosur represents an opportunity or a threat to the long-term sustainable development of the Polish fruit and vegetable sector.

2. Materials and Methods

This study examines the potential positive impacts of the European Union–Mercosur Trade Agreement on the Polish horticultural sector. Following the accession of Bolivia to Mercosur in 2024, the analysis covers five member states: Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

The methodological framework is grounded in the New Trade Theory (NTT) and the conceptual logic of the gravity model. Both approaches represent modern extensions of classical trade theories such as Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage and the Heckscher–Ohlin model, and they allow for a more realistic explanation of trade patterns among economies with similar structures [18,19]. Although these theoretical frameworks were not initially developed for agriculture, numerous studies have demonstrated their relevance for agri-food trade analysis [20,21].

The New Trade Theory, developed largely by Paul Krugman, highlights increasing returns to scale, monopolistic competition, and product differentiation as key determinants of international trade [22]. From this perspective, trade between Poland and Mercosur economies may arise not only from cost advantages typical of Mercosur producers but also from Poland’s ability to supply differentiated, specialised, or processed horticultural products suited to diverse consumer preferences. The gradual rise in GDP per capita in Mercosur countries further supports demand for such goods.

The gravity model framework, widely applied in empirical trade research, posits that bilateral trade intensifies with economic size and declines with increasing geographical distance. It also captures the role of institutional and policy factors, such as trade agreements or tariffs [20,23,24]. Although this study does not estimate a classical structural gravity model, the analysis is conceptually grounded in this framework, particularly in assessing trade patterns, market structure, and export potential between Poland and Mercosur countries.

The study uses data from several databases: FAOSTAT in scope of fruit and vegetable production. FAOSTAT production data combine officially reported national statistics with model-based estimates in cases of incomplete reporting. To enhance reliability, the analysis prioritised multi-year averages (three-year periods) rather than single-year observations, and cross-checked FAOSTAT trends against Eurostat data (for the EU and Poland) and national statistics where available. This approach reduces the influence of short-term reporting inconsistencies and estimation error. UN Comtrade and Eurostat in scope of international trade flows and World Bank in scope of macroeconomic indicators. The time frame covers the years 2012–2024, with production data analysed until 2023 due to reporting schedules. With respect to UN Comtrade data, the issue of product aggregation affected different segments of the analysis to varying degrees. In the case of fresh fruits and vegetables, aggregation was of limited importance, as the majority of analysed products are reported at the six-digit HS level, allowing for a relatively precise identification of individual species. Greater aggregation-related constraints applied to processed fruit and vegetable products, which are often reported under broader HS categories. To address this limitation, the analysis of processed products was conducted at the level of product groups, while taking into account their internal product structure, as identified through complementary trade statistics from Eurostat based on eight-digit Combined Nomenclature codes. This approach allowed for a more informed interpretation of aggregated trade flows and reduced the risk of misclassification bias.

To assess the determinants of Poland’s horticultural exports to Mercosur countries, a gravity-type econometric model was estimated using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator. PPML is widely used in trade research due to its robustness to heteroskedasticity and suitability for modelling trade values in levels, especially in the presence of zero trade flows.

A balanced panel dataset was constructed for five Mercosur countries (2012–2024). Variables included GDP per capita (USD), agricultural share in GDP, and rural population share for partner countries. Corresponding structural variables for Poland were included to capture domestic conditions affecting export supply. Bilateral geographical distance (km) between Warsaw and the respective Mercosur capitals was used as a trade resistance proxy.

To account for unobserved heterogeneity and common shocks, the specification incorporates partner-country and year fixed effects. Partner fixed effects absorb all time-invariant bilateral attributes, while year fixed effects capture global macroeconomic or policy changes. As a result, variables constant within countries or across years are absorbed by fixed effects and omitted from estimation—an expected and methodologically sound outcome. The PPML specification is given by [20,24]:

$$\mathit{E}\left({\mathrm{Export}}_{\mathit{i}\mathit{t}}\right)=\mathbf{e}\mathbf{x}\mathbf{p}\left({\mathit{\beta }}_{\mathbf{1}}\mathbf{l}\mathbf{o}\mathbf{g}\right({\mathrm{GDPpc}}_{\mathit{i}\mathit{t}})+{\mathit{\beta }}_{\mathbf{2}}{\mathrm{RuralShare}}_{\mathit{i}\mathit{t}}+{\mathit{\beta }}_{\mathbf{3}}{\mathrm{AgriGDPshare}}_{\mathit{i}\mathit{t}}+{\mathit{\alpha }}_{\mathit{i}}+{\mathit{\gamma }}_{\mathit{t}}),$$

where

-

${\mathrm{Export}}_{it}$—value of horticultural exports from Poland to country i in year t;

-

$\mathrm{l}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{g}\left({\mathrm{GDPpc}}_{it}\right)$—GDP per capita of partner i;

-

${\mathrm{RuralShare}}_{\mathit{i}\mathit{t}}$—rural population share;

-

${\mathrm{AgriGDPshare}}_{it}$—agricultural share in partner-country GDP;

-

${\alpha }_i$—partner fixed effects;

-

${\gamma }_t$—year fixed effects.

In the estimated PPML gravity model, the dependent variable represents the value of Polish exports of fruit and vegetable products to individual Mercosur countries. Explanatory variables include the economic size and purchasing power of trading partners, proxied by GDP per capita, which captures demand-side effects relevant for higher-quality and processed products. Geographic distance reflects transport costs and logistical barriers associated with long-distance trade. The share of agriculture in the importing country’s GDP serves as an indicator of domestic production capacity and potential competition with imports. Time fixed effects control for common shocks affecting all trading partners, while country fixed effects capture unobserved, time-invariant characteristics influencing bilateral trade flows. The model was estimated using the fepois() function from the fixest package in R, which is designed for efficient estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects.

To assess the alignment between Poland’s export structure and Mercosur import demand, trade complementarity indices were calculated following [25]:

$${\mathit{C}}_{\mathit{j}\mathit{k}}=\mathbf{1}-{\displaystyle \frac{\mathbf{\sum }\left|{\mathit{m}}_{\mathit{i}\mathit{k}}-{\mathit{x}}_{\mathit{i}\mathit{j}}\right|}{\mathbf{2}}},$$

where

-

$m_{ik}$—share of product i in total agri-food imports of country k;

-

$x_{ij}$—share of product i in Poland’s agri-food exports to market k;

-

$i$—product category at the six-digit HS level.

The index ranges between 0 and 1. Values close to 0 indicate complementary trade structures, while values close to 1 suggest structural similarity [17].

The intensity of intra-industry trade in temperate-zone fruits, vegetables, and processed products was evaluated using the Grubel–Lloyd index [26]:

$$\mathit{G}{\mathit{L}}_{\mathit{i}}=\mathbf{1}-{\displaystyle \frac{\left|{\mathit{X}}_{\mathit{i}}-{\mathit{M}}_{\mathit{i}}\right|}{{\mathit{X}}_{\mathit{i}}+{\mathit{M}}_{\mathit{i}}}},$$

where

${\mathit{X}}_{\mathit{i}}$ and ${\mathit{M}}_{\mathit{i}}$ represent Poland’s exports and imports of product group i to and from Mercosur countries.

Higher values denote a predominantly intra-industry trade structure, indicating mutual exchange of similar product categories and reflecting advanced trade linkages.

To assess Poland’s export potential in the Mercosur market, a SWOT analysis was conducted. This tool allowed systematic identification of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats affecting competitiveness. The analysis drew upon scientific literature, Eurostat and GUS statistics, UN Comtrade data, and EU policy documents. The results supported the formulation of recommendations for enhancing Poland’s horticultural export performance.

Several limitations were encountered during the study. High aggregation levels in UN Comtrade restricted detailed product-level analysis, while some FAOSTAT figures were based on estimates, which may introduce uncertainty. Moreover, incomplete data for selected Mercosur countries constrained the depth of cross-country comparisons. Despite these limitations, the consistency of results across multiple analytical tools (production analysis, trade complementarity indices, intra-industry trade measures, and PPML estimation) supports the robustness of the main conclusions.

3. Results

3.1. Economic Potential of the European Union, Mercosur, and Poland

Although Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay are among the countries with stronger economies in the Latin American region, poverty, and particularly rural poverty, is still widespread in all Mercosur countries, with the exception of Uruguay. According to some estimates, the incidence of rural poverty is particularly high in Brazil [24], but, according to newest data the situation has been improved.

When incorporated into the analytical framework, World Bank data indicate that the average GDP per capita in Mercosur countries in 2024 represented only 27.1% of the corresponding level in the European Union and 46.7% of that in Poland (

Table 1. Selected parameters of general economic characteristics in years 2012–2024.

	2012–2014	2015–2017	2018–2020	2021–2023	2024
	GDP Per Capita in USD
Argentina	12,715.5	13,637.4	10,081.5	12,953.7	13,858.2
Bolivia	2829.0	3112.7	3368.2	3571.7	4001.2
Brazil	12,418.5	9284.3	8468.2	9210.5	10,280.3
Paraguay	6243.4	5935.6	5815.0	6160.8	6416.1
Uruguay	17,639.1	17,773.4	17,774.4	20,573.3	23,906.5
Mercosur	10,369.1	9948.7	9101.5	10,494.0	11,692.5
European Union	34,576.6	31,874.5	35,375.8	39,523.1	43,145.2
Poland	13,657.2	13,005.0	15,894.6	19,890.7	25,022.7
	The share of agriculture in GDP in %
Argentina	6.18	5.55	5.40	6.62	5.98
Bolivia	9.84	11.00	12.57	12.95	13.30
Brazil	4.33	4.60	4.78	6.12	5.58
Paraguay	11.56	10.11	10.12	11.25	10.71
Uruguay	7.49	6.07	6.51	6.91	6.42
Mercosur	7.88	7.47	7.88	8.77	8.40
European Union	1.68	1.61	1.58	1.62	1.59
Poland	3.06	2.70	2.45	2.61	2.60

Source: https://databank.worldbank.org/home (accessed on 15 November 2025).

). Among the Mercosur member states, the lowest GDP per capita in that year was recorded in Bolivia (9.3% of the EU-27 level in 2024), while the highest was observed in Uruguay (55.4% of the EU-27 level in 2024). It is noteworthy that in 2024, the GDP per capita in the EU-27 was 24.8% higher than in the years 2012–2014. The largest increase over this period was recorded in Poland (83.2%), Bolivia (41.4%), and Uruguay (35.5%). A decline of 17.2% occurred only in Brazil, whereas the average GDP per capita for the entire Mercosur group rose by 12.8% during this period. Based on the above analysis, it can be concluded that the average level of wealth and economic development in Mercosur countries remains lower than in both the European Union and Poland. At the same time, the growth rate of this indicator during the analysed period was significantly lower than that observed in Poland.

Presenting these indicators in a simplified tabular and graphical form facilitates a clear comparison of structural differences between Poland, the EU, and Mercosur countries, which is essential for interpreting subsequent trade and competitiveness results. It is noteworthy, and consistent with the theory of economic development, that the highest share of agriculture in the creation of gross domestic product (GDP) occurs in countries with lower levels of wealth, characterised by relatively low GDP per capita. Among the Mercosur countries, the agricultural sector had the greatest significance in Paraguay and Bolivia; however, even in the remaining member states, the share of agriculture in GDP was approximately twice as high as in Poland. On average, in 2024, the contribution of agriculture to GDP in the Mercosur group was more than five times higher than in the EU-27. This suggests that the economies of the Mercosur countries are characterised by a lower degree of diversification.

This structural feature also has implications for trade relations and competitiveness. Mercosur enjoys comparative advantages in the production and export of agricultural raw materials [27], whereas the European Union’s strengths lie primarily in processed food products [28]. Consequently, the trade between these two blocs can be expected to exhibit an asymmetric character.

However, according to The Economist Group [29], which developed the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) assessing food security across 113 countries based on four key dimensions—affordability, availability, quality and safety, and sustainability and adaptation—the situation regarding food security and affordability in Mercosur countries has shown signs of improvement (

Table 2. 2022 GFSI overall rankings table Weighted total of all pillar scores, and the score changes (0–100 where 100 = most favourable).

Country	Rank (Score)	The Change Versus 2012
Poland	21 (75.5)	+7.0
Uruguay	34 (71.8)	+10.9
Brazil	51 (65.1)	+1.3
Bolivia	52 (65.0)	+12.2
Argentina	54 (64.8)	+1.3
Paraguay	70 (58.6)	+4.6

Source: Global Food Security Index 2022. http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com (accessed on 15 November 2025).

). This positive trend has been partly driven by the dynamic inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) into and across Latin America (including Mercosur) over the past few decades. In parallel, many countries in the region have actively participated in regional trade agreements (RTAs) and bilateral investment treaties [30].

On the other hand, in the Mercosur countries, the number of people unable to afford high-quality food remains relatively large. According to FAO data [16], in the years 2021–2023, the share of individuals belonging to this group amounted to approximately 25% in Brazil and Paraguay, and as much as 36% in Uruguay. The situation was slightly better in Bolivia, where this indicator reached around 9%.

The observed economic development of the Mercosur member states, particularly in Uruguay, but also in Brazil and Argentina, constitutes a significant factor contributing to the growing demand for food products in these countries. A second factor is the increase in population size and the favourable age structure of the population, especially when compared with that of the European Union. Both of these aspects represent opportunities for expanding the involvement of Polish producers of fruits and vegetables, as well as enterprises offering fruit and vegetable preserves, in the markets of the Mercosur countries.

3.2. Fruit and Vegetables Production Potential of the European Union, Mercosur, and Poland

Over the past forty years, the EU-27’s share in global fruit and vegetable production has gradually declined. According to FAO data, the share of this group in global vegetable and fruit harvests fell from 16.4% and 21.4% in 1982–1984 to 4.6% and 5.7% in 2021–2023, respectively. During the same periods, the Mercosur countries’ share also decreased from 2.1% and 8.4% to 1.1% and 5.7%. Despite this long-term downward trend in the global context, the total production volumes in both the EU-27 and Mercosur have remained relatively stable. In this context, a comparative analysis of the production potential of Mercosur, the EU-27, and Poland was conducted to identify the most important fruit and vegetable species, ranked by production volume. In line with the New Trade Theory, it can be assumed that species of major production importance—thus benefiting from economies of scale—may stimulate trade between Poland and Mercosur countries, enabling Polish producers and exporters to access new, prospective markets. From the perspective of competitiveness, the coexistence of stable production volumes with declining global shares implies growing pressure on EU producers to shift away from volume-based competition towards strategies based on value added, processing, and compliance with sustainability requirements.

Total fruit production in the EU-27 increased from an average of 64.2 million tonnes in 2012–2014 to 64.9 million tonnes in 2021–2023, i.e., by about 1%. In Mercosur, the corresponding increase was from 51.4 to 52.3 million tonnes (almost 2%). Fruit production in the EU-27 during 2012–2014 was 25.1% higher than in Mercosur, while in 2021–2023 the difference narrowed slightly to 23.9% (

Table 3. Production of fruits in Mercosur, EU-27 and Poland in thousand tons in 2012–2023.

	MERCOSUR	EU-27	Poland	MERCOSUR	EU-27	Poland
	2012–2014			2021–2023
Fruit Total	51,362.1	64,229.5	4120.1	52,335.0	64,865.2	5113.3
Oranges	18,978.2	6088.6	NS	18,507.5	6063.0	NS
Bananas	7361.6	398.6	NS	7546.3	666.1	NS
Lemons and limes	2531.4	1277.8	NS	3778.8	1621.1	NS
Grapes	4191.5	24,332.8	NS	3660.0	24,209.3	5.4
Pineapples	2683.3	1.2	NS	2523.5	NS	NS
Other tropical fruits	832.6	56.8	NS	2347.6	811.4	NS
Watermelons	2423.8	2709.6	NS	2268.9	2870.2	NS
Mangoes, guavas and mangosteens	1557.1	NS	NS	2249.8	NS	NS
Tangerines, mandarins, clementines	1664.8	3156.5	NS	1811.5	3043.1	NS
Apples	2279.4	11,481.9	3052.6	1716.6	12,343.1	4074.9
Papayas	1593.0	NS	NS	1227.0	NS	NS
Cashewapple	1784.3	NS	NS	1074.0	NS	NS
Cantaloupes and other melons	691.9	1973.8	NS	838.5	1745.9	0.3
Pears	842.5	2371.3	71.3	648.0	1930.4	76.1
Plantains and cooking bananas	382.1	NS	NS	484.7	NS	NS
Peaches and nectarines	493.5	3799.4	9.8	432.4	3208.8	5.4
Avocados	185.7	77.7	NS	386	146.2	NS
Strawberries	169.0	1065.9	181.8	240.1	1202.8	185.6
Plums and sloes	167.3	1376.2	103.7	94.7	1520.7	125.9
Cherries	7.7	538.1	45.6	8.3	575.7	68.2
Sour cherries	0.2	301.5	180.1	0.1	299.3	173.0
Currants	NS	239.1	185.2	NS	194.4	142.5
Raspberries	NS	169.2	124.7	NS	207.4	101.6
Other berries	NS	140.2	54.4	NS	146.2	84.4
Blueberries	NS	56.6	12.2	NS	192.9	60.4

Source: Faostat. https://www.fao.org/statistics/en (accessed on 15 November 2025); NS—Not significant, or not existing.

). During this period, Poland’s fruit output grew from 4.1 to 5.1 million tonnes. This relatively dynamic growth, combined with stagnant domestic consumption, translates into structural surplus pressures, making export competitiveness a key condition for maintaining economic viability under sustainability constraints. Despite the comparable production volumes between the two blocs, there are significant differences in species composition. In Mercosur, citrus fruits, including oranges, lemons, and limes, which dominate the production structure. Orange production showed no upward trend, remaining at around 19.0 million tonnes in both analysed subperiods. Other major fruits include bananas, grapes, pineapples, and tropical fruits. The expansion of Brazilian plantations, partly at the expense of rainforests, has contributed to this growth, with production also developing in Argentina and Paraguay. Among fruits cultivated in Mercosur that could potentially compete with Polish products are apples, plums, and strawberries. However, analysis indicates that apple production in Mercosur declined by nearly 25.0% between 2012–2014 and 2021–2023, while plum output dropped by 43.4%. The contraction of Mercosur production in key temperate-zone fruits reduces direct production-side competition and strengthens Poland’s relative competitive position, particularly in segments suitable for processed and long-distance trade. In contrast, strawberry production rose by 42.0%, though other berry crops remained of marginal importance.

Within the EU-27, grapes constitute the most important fruit species, with production remaining stable at around 24.0 million tonnes over the study period. Citrus production plays a smaller role than in Mercosur, though oranges remain the leading species within this group. The EU’s production structure there has also been growth in crops with higher thermal requirements, such as avocados and bananas. From among temperate climate zone fruits, total apple production in the EU-27 rose from 11.5 million tones in 2012–2014 to 12.3 million tones in 2021–2023—an increase of over 7%. Plum harvests increased by more than 10%, reaching 1.5 million tones, while pear production declined by about 19%, to 1.9 million tones. Unfavourable weather conditions and frequent climate anomalies in specialised production regions were key factors behind these declines, also contributing to reduced yields of peaches and nectarines. The EU-27 also shows significantly higher production levels of cherries and sour cherries compared to Mercosur. Moreover, the EU recorded a clear upward trend in berry production, particularly of highbush blueberries, whose output reached 193.0 thousand tones in 2021–2023, almost 3.5 times higher than in 2012–2014. Over the same period, raspberry production rose by 22.6% and strawberry production by 12.8%.

In Poland, fruit cultivation focuses on species with low thermal requirements, typical of temperate climates. Total harvests increased from 4.1 million tones in 2012–2014 (by a 24%) to 5.1 million tones in 2021–2023. Consequently, Poland’s share in EU fruit production grew from 6.4% to 7.9%. Apples dominate the country’s fruit structure, with production increasing from 3.1 to 4.1 million tones during the analysed period. According to estimates by IERiGŻ-PIB [31], approximately 70% of Polish apple production is used for juice processing—both concentrated (CAJ) and not-from-concentrate (NFC)—a large portion of which is exported. A high share of processing enhances export resilience, limits post-harvest losses, and supports a sustainability-oriented competitiveness model focused on value creation rather than raw output expansion. Other fruit species with significant production potential include plums, sour cherries, and berries such as strawberries, raspberries, blackcurrants, and chokeberries. It is noteworthy that Poland’s plum production, averaging 125.9 thousand tones in 2021–2023, was 21.4% higher than in 2012–2014, while Mercosur’s plum output decreased by 43.4% to 94.7 thousand tones. Poland also maintains a clear production advantage in sour cherries, which, when exported as frozen products or juices, represent promising export commodities. Moreover, Poland is among the leading global producers of blackcurrants and chokeberries, and the high level of production concentration and market organisation in these sectors provides favourable conditions for exporters seeking to expand into emerging Mercosur markets.

The conducted analysis indicates that while both Mercosur and the European Union are developing fruit production, their species composition differs substantially, shaped by distinct climatic conditions. Mercosur focuses primarily on tropical and citrus fruits, whereas the EU and Poland specialise in temperate-zone crops. This structural differentiation creates potential opportunities for trade exchange between the regions. From a developmental perspective, Poland could expand its exports to Mercosur countries by offering high-quality, long-shelf-life fruits, such as apples, pears, and plums, as well as processed berry products, particularly frozen strawberries and raspberries. Given their nutritional value, sensory qualities, and health-promoting properties, these products could become an important complement to the fruit supply in South American markets.

Vegetable production in Mercosur countries increased from nearly 12.8 million tonnes on average in 2012–2014 to 13.5 million tonnes in 2021–2023, representing a rise of 5.6%. During the same period, vegetable harvests in the EU-27 declined from 58.5 million tonnes to 54.1 million tonnes, i.e., by 7.6%, although they remained four times higher than in Mercosur (

Table 4. Production of vegetables in Mercosur, EU-27 and Poland in thousand tonnes in 2012–2023.

	MERCOSUR	EU-27	Poland	MERCOSUR	EU-27	Poland
	2012–2014			2021–2023
Vegetables Total	12,758.6	58,519.6	5594.3	13,477.0	54,083.2	4802.6
Tomatoes	5182.0	15,943.9	799.7	5452.2	16,492.1	828.7
Onions and shallots	2381.7	5642.6	614.8	2502.3	6645.0	634.8
Carrots and turnips	332.0	4805.0	799.9	430.7	4680.6	611.8
Green garlic	252.7	306.9	NS	336.6	397.3	21.7
Pumpkins, squash and gourds	333.2	1503.9	57.2	319.2	2647.4	385.4
Chillies and peppers	176.1	2214.7	NS	184.0	3050.0	346.1
Peas, green	48.4	767.1	35.9	51.6	834.2	48.9
Broad beans and horse beans, green	51.2	161.1	11.9	39.1	204.7	59.5
Lettuce and chicory	14.9	2739.3	32.6	18.4	3485.3	63.5
Asparagus	10.3	271.8	2.7	10.6	301.3	19.7
Cabbages	7.9	4965.3	1146.6	8.7	3748.3	693.4
Other beans, green	5.6	709.9	3.0	5.7	1021.7	60.0
Cucumbers and gherkins	2.7	2804.0	521.9	4.8	2742.6	464.4
Cauliflowers and broccoli	0.9	2173.7	301.1	0.8	2018.3	213.3
Mushrooms and truffles	NS	1427.6	247.5	NS	1131.0	292.0
Leeks and other alliaceous vegetables	NS	814.6	109.8	NS	728.6	50.9

Source: Faostat. https://www.fao.org/statistics/en (accessed on 15 November 2025); NS—Not significant, or not existing.

). In Poland, average vegetable production in 2021–2023 amounted to 4.8 million tonnes, which was 14.2% lower than in 2012–2014, while the share of Polish vegetable output in total EU production decreased from 9.6% to 8.9%. The decline in vegetable harvests across EU-27 countries has been significantly influenced by rising labour and production costs, as well as by structural adjustments in cultivation patterns responding to market needs shaped by demographic changes. Unfavourable demographic changes cause the drop in fruit and vegetables consumption in many European countries, including Poland. That raises the issue of efficient harvests management, and drive a lot attention to new market acquisition. In contrast, the growth of vegetable production in Mercosur countries results primarily from population increase and rising household incomes.

In the Mercosur member states, as well as in the EU-27 and in Poland, tomatoes constitute the dominant crop in the vegetable production structure. In 2021–2023, their share in total vegetable production exceeded 40% in Mercosur countries, while in the EU-27 and Poland it amounted to over 30% and 17%, respectively. It is worth noting that, on average, tomato harvests in Mercosur countries in 2021–2023 were about 5% higher than in 2012–2014, whereas in the EU-27 and Poland they increased by approximately 3%. The second most important vegetable in terms of cultivated area is onion; its harvests in Mercosur countries rose from nearly 2.4 million tonnes in 2012–2014 to 2.5 million tonnes in 2021–2023 (an increase of 5%), while in the EU-27 they grew by 17.8% to 6.6 million tonnes, and in Poland by only 3.3% to 634.8 thousand tonnes.

Other significant crops in the structure of Mercosur vegetable production during the analysed period included carrots, garlic, and cucurbits. In 2021–2023, carrots accounted for 3.2% of the total cultivated area, with harvests reaching 430.7 thousand tonnes compared to 332.0 thousand tonnes in 2012–2014. Over the same periods, garlic production increased from 252.7 thousand tonnes to 336.6 thousand tonnes, with its share rising to 2.5%, while cucurbit production decreased by 4.2% to 319.2 thousand tonnes. Despite this growth, the production volume of both carrots and cucurbits in Mercosur countries in 2021–2023 remained relatively low—approximately ten and eight times lower, respectively, than in the EU. At the same time, the production of other vegetable species commonly cultivated in the EU-27 remained marginal in Mercosur and did not play a significant role in the region’s horticultural structure.

The structure of vegetable production in the EU-27 is characterised by considerable species diversity and substantial market potential. Besides tomatoes and onions, carrots also represent an important share of production, with average harvests in 2021–2023 reaching nearly 4.7 million tonnes, or 8.5% of total EU vegetable output. Due to their wide use in processing—particularly in the production of vegetable juices and baby food—carrots can be considered a product with notable export potential [32]. The production of brassica vegetables (especially white cabbage) is also relatively high in the EU-27; however, its importance showed a downward trend in the analysed period, mainly due to evolving dietary patterns among EU consumers. Among the vegetable crops with the highest production volumes in the EU-27, significant growth between 2012–2014 and 2021–2023 was observed for pumpkins (up 76.0%, to 2.6 million tonnes), peppers (up 37.7%, to nearly 3.1 million tonnes), and leafy vegetables (up 27.2%, to 3.5 million tonnes). In contrast, production declined for cucumbers and gherkins (by 2.2%), cauliflowers and broccoli (by 7.1%), and mushrooms and truffles (by 20.8%). Given the high level of varietal diversity and the consequently balanced production structure, it can be concluded that the EU has the capacity both to meet its internal market needs and to maintain a competitive export position vis-à-vis other regions, including Mercosur.

Despite the decline in total harvest volumes, Poland remains one of the leading vegetable producers in the EU-27. In addition to tomatoes and onions, cabbage and carrots also play an important role in the country’s crop structure. In 2021–2023, their harvests amounted to 693.4 thousand tonnes and 611.8 thousand tonnes, respectively, which was 39.5% and 23.5% less than in 2012–2014. Nevertheless, the production levels of these crops—particularly cabbage—remain higher in Poland than in all Mercosur countries combined. Poland also demonstrates relatively high production potential for cucumbers and peppers. These are thermophilic species predominantly cultivated under cover, with harvests primarily intended for the domestic market. Between 2012–2014 and 2021–2023, the production volume of cucurbits increased substantially—by nearly sevenfold—whereas a slight decline was recorded for cauliflower and broccoli. Notably, Poland is among the largest mushroom producers in the EU-27. Mushrooms, as a high-quality product, are successfully marketed on numerous foreign markets. Consequently, Polish producers and exporters have developed a well-organised and efficient supply chain, which could potentially be applied to South American markets.

The data indicate that vegetable cultivation in Mercosur countries focuses primarily on thermophilic species such as tomatoes, onions, garlic, and pumpkins. In contrast, the vegetable production structure in the EU-27 is considerably more diversified but, due to the widespread use of protected cultivation, is characterised by high capital intensity. Unlike in Mercosur, vegetable production in the EU commonly employs advanced technologies that are systematically introduced through successive Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) frameworks. A similar trend is observed in Poland, where the share of technologically demanding vegetables—such as peppers, lettuce, and mushrooms—is gradually increasing, accompanied by a decline in the production of traditional species, particularly brassicas. The observed shift towards technologically demanding and capital-intensive vegetable production strengthens competitiveness through quality differentiation and efficiency gains, while simultaneously aligning production structures with environmental and resource-use objectives.

In the context of intensifying trade relations, Poland’s export offer to Mercosur countries could rely on vegetables distinguished by high quality and relatively long post-harvest shelf life, such as carrots and cabbage. However, processed products—especially frozen vegetables, canned goods, pickles, and homogenised vegetable preparations—would likely play a key role. The relatively low supply of certain vegetable species in Mercosur countries, combined with rising income levels and shifting consumer preferences toward healthier diets, may generate increasing import demand for these products. Consequently, the observed production structure may provide a favourable starting point for European export expansion, particularly regarding vegetable species with limited availability in the Mercosur region. In the longer term, trade cooperation in this area could contribute both to the diversification of EU exports and to enhancing the availability of a wider range of vegetable products on South American markets.

The conducted analysis indicates that the structure of Poland’s export offer in agri-food products, including fruits, vegetables, and their processed forms, is relatively poorly aligned with the import demand structure of Mercosur countries. It should be noted that trade complementarity and intra-industry trade capture conceptually different dimensions of bilateral trade relations. Trade complementarity reflects the degree to which the export structure of one partner matches the import demand structure of the other, whereas the intra-industry trade index measures the simultaneous exchange of similar product groups. Consequently, low complementarity does not preclude relatively high intra-industry trade. Due to the negligible supply of these products from Poland to the markets of Paraguay and Bolivia during the analysed period, it was not possible to determine the value of the matching index for these countries. These results imply that the EU–Mercosur Agreement is unlikely to generate broad-based export expansion for Poland, but may instead produce selective trade effects concentrated in product niches where export supply and import demand structures are more closely aligned. Between 2012 and 2024, the value of the index ranged from 0.21 to 0.36 for Argentina, from 0.34 to 0.59 for Brazil, and from 0.44 to 0.62 for Uruguay, reaching its highest levels in 2017–2018 and, in the case of Uruguay, also in 2023 (

Table 5. Indicators of the degree of alignment between the export supply structure of temperate-zone fruits, vegetables, and their processed products, and the import demand structure of selected MERCOSUR countries.

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Argentine	0.24	0.26	0.21	0.27	0.28	0.30	0.36	0.31	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.32	0.30
Brazil	0.53	0.40	0.36	0.34	0.51	0.59	0.59	0.56	0.56	0.40	0.57	0.56	0.43
Uruguay	0.45	0.46	0.45	0.44	0.46	0.62	0.61	0.44	0.44	0.56	0.55	0.60	N.D.

Source: Own calculations on UN Comtrade data; N.D.—no data.

). These fluctuations may have resulted from changes in the overall economic situation as well as from political and administrative decisions affecting Polish exports. The Russian embargo imposed in 2014 may also have played a role, as it forced Polish exporters to acquire new sales markets. From a competitiveness perspective, the moderate values of the matching index indicate that export potential is selective rather than broad-based, suggesting that gains from the EU–Mercosur Agreement are most likely to arise in well-aligned niches, particularly processed products that also exhibit lower environmental intensity.

3.3. Trade in Fruits, Vegetables, and Their Processed Products Between Mercosur Countries and Poland

The values of the Grubel–Lloyd index calculated for Poland’s trade with Mercosur countries in temperate-zone fruits, vegetables, and their processed products indicate generally low levels of intra-industry integration, although notable differences emerge across individual partners. In the case of Argentina, a gradual increase in structural similarity can be observed—from near-zero values at the beginning of the period to 0.59 in 2023 (

Table 6. Indicator of Intra-Industry Trade (Grubel–Lloyd Index) in Temperate-Zone Fruits, Vegetables, and Processed Fruit and Vegetable Products.

	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Argentina	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.19	0.25	0.37	0.23	0.13	0.14	0.39	0.32	0.59	0.35
Bolivia	N.D	0.00	0.00	N.D	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Brazil	0.23	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.10	0.27	0.09	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.10
Paraguay	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	N.D	0.10	0.00	0.24	0.00	0.00
Uruguay	0.00	0.69	0.90	0.46	0.14	0.73	0.89	0.17	0.94	0.91	0.98	0.00	0.78
Mercosur	0.21	0.07	0.06	0.07	0.11	0.29	0.11	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.07	0.09	0.13

Source: Own calculations on UN Comtrade data; N.D.—no data.

). This pattern suggests that, in certain years, the export and import structure of horticultural products has become more aligned, although the decline to 0.35 in 2024 confirms the instability of this trend. Bolivia remains a marginal trading partner in this product group, which is reflected in consistently zero index values. For Brazil, a major exporter of agricultural commodities, the index fluctuates at low levels (0.04–0.11), indicating that trade is dominated by inter-industry rather than intra-industry exchange. Paraguay shows only occasional increases in the index (e.g., 0.24 in 2022), while in most years the intra-industry component of trade is negligible, demonstrating strong asymmetry in bilateral flows. In contrast, Uruguay stands out with persistently high index values (0.69–0.98 in numerous years), suggesting the most balanced trade structure with Poland, as both sides participate in exporting and importing similar categories of horticultural products. This pattern reflects a narrow but specialised structure of bilateral trade, where limited overall structural complementarity coexists with higher intra-industry exchange within selected product groups. From the perspective of the EU–Mercosur Agreement, the predominance of inter-industry trade one can conclude that liberalisation is more likely to reinforce a vertical division of labour rather than intensify direct competitive pressures between Polish and Mercosur producers.

When aggregated for Mercosur as a whole, the index remains low, though a slight upward trend is visible—from approximately 0.06–0.07 in the early years to 0.13 in 2024. These results indicate that Poland’s trade with Mercosur in temperate-zone fruits, vegetables, and processed products continues to be predominantly inter-industry in nature, characteristic of exchanges between economies with differing agricultural specialisations. At the same time, the rising values observed for Argentina and the consistently high levels for Uruguay may point to a gradual expansion of mutual complementarity and the emergence of product niches in which trade structures are becoming more symmetrical.

According to the trade data, the total import volume of fresh vegetables and fruits (excluding nuts, bananas, and citrus fruits) and their processed products to Mercosur countries in the years 2012–2024 amounted to approximately 2 million tonnes, of which 75–80% of the supply volume was directed to Brazil (

Table 7. Imports of selected fruits, vegetables and their preserves to Mercosur countries in thousand tons in 2012–2024.

Products	2012–2014	2015–2017	2018–2020	2021–2023	2024
Frozen processed vegetables	300.0	369.2	400.9	400.0	348.9
Onion and shallots	224.0	214.1	222.6	186.4	331.9
Pears	211.2	170.0	162.1	147.0	176.8
Garlic	170.5	169.6	181.4	126.5	151.6
Apples	124.4	155.1	138.2	148.5	263.5
Dried leguminous	321.1	278.8	192.2	170.2	73.8
Including dry peas	251.2	213.0	116.0	77.0	22.6
Vegetables preserved or processed	147.7	145.6	170.4	160.8	129.0
Tomatoes preserved	73.9	97.1	102.1	75.8	92.5
Canned vegetables	72.2	62.6	47.5	38.1	30.5
Plums	36.1	32.9	26.1	34.5	37.0
Frozen vegetables	22.6	26.5	31.6	33.4	38.6
Dry vegetables	24.2	18.3	27.5	33.9	40.4
Jams, fruit jellies, marmalades	24.7	22.5	25.4	24.4	19.0
Fresh tomatoes	10.5	20.6	23.8	18.2	36.2
Peaches and nectarines	24.7	24.0	20.1	14.1	16.5
Peaches and nectarines preserved	32.0	26.2	20.7	11.1	6.4

Source: UN Comtrade data. https://comtradeplus.un.org/.

). It should be emphasised that Mercosur has not, thus far, constituted a significant export destination for this group of products originating from the European Union.

Frozen vegetable preparations hold the largest share in the imports of vegetables, fruits, and their processed products into Mercosur countries, although their import volume in 2024 was 12.8% lower than the average recorded in 2021–2023. Conversely, a notable increase in import volumes was observed for fresh products, particularly onions, apples, and pears. Onion imports in 2024 reached 331.9 thousand tonnes, representing a 78.1% increase compared with 2021–2023. During the same period, imports of apples and pears rose by 77.4% and 20.3%, respectively. The growing demand for these three products may serve as a positive signal for Poland in terms of its potential to strengthen engagement in Mercosur markets. In 2024, the import of garlic and tomatoes to Mercosur also exceeded the average level observed in 2021–2023; however, Poland’s production potential in these commodities remains insufficient to support export expansion beyond the EU market. Over the analytical period 2012–2024, a slight upward trend was recorded in the imports of frozen and dried vegetables as well as fresh plums, while imports of dried leguminous crops and vegetables preserved or processed showed a gradual decline.

In the context of trade liberalisation between the European Union and Mercosur countries, the observed changes in import structure may create favourable conditions for expanding export opportunities for EU producers, including those from Poland. The gradual removal of non-tariff barriers and the simplification of phytosanitary procedures could enhance the competitiveness of European fruits, vegetables, and their processed products in South American markets. In particular, for high-quality products with a diversified assortment, Poland could strengthen its export presence by leveraging the growing demand among Mercosur consumers for EU-origin products, which are perceived as safe and compliant with high food production standards.

According to UN Comtrade trade data, the import of fresh produce from Mercosur countries to Poland has so far remained marginal, fluctuating between 0.1 and 1.6 thousand tonnes during the period 2012–2024. In the same period, imports of vegetable products to Poland ranged from 0.5 to 5.9 thousand tonnes, with canned vegetables—particularly canned corn—playing the most significant role. The total import of fresh fruit to Poland originating directly from Mercosur increased from 34.1 thousand tonnes in 2012–2014 to 37.9 thousand tonnes in 2015–2017 and 35.6 thousand tonnes in 2021–2023. In 2024, total deliveries of fresh fruit declined to 30 thousand tonnes. The largest share within this product group consisted of citrus fruits, particularly lemons, oranges, and clementines, as well as bananas and pineapples. Based on the available data, it can be concluded that during the analysed period, imports of temperate-zone fruits to Poland did not exceed 0.5 thousand tonnes. Meanwhile, imports of processed fruit products primarily comprised orange juice concentrate. Total deliveries of this product to Poland amounted to 40.3 thousand tonnes in 2024, compared to 60.9 thousand tonnes in 2021–2023 and 44.8 thousand tonnes in 2012–2014. Thus, the available data indicate that imports of fruit, vegetables, and their processed products from Mercosur to Poland are primarily intended to supplement and expand the domestic market supply of these products, rather than posing direct competition to Polish producers.

The conducted analysis reveals that during 2012–2024, Poland’s exports of fruit, vegetables, and their processed products to Mercosur underwent notable changes in their assortment structure. The examined period shows a clear differentiation in export dynamics among individual product groups. This may stem from evolving demand patterns in target markets, as well as from adaptation strategies undertaken by Polish agri-food processing enterprises to meet competitive conditions in South American markets. Between 2012 and 2017, exports of most product groups increased, particularly in the category of frozen products. After 2020, however, the export dynamics of certain products—especially frozen canned vegetables and processed fruit—began to slow down (

Table 8. Export selected fruits, vegetables and their preserves from Poland to Mercosur in tons in 2012–2024.

	2012–2014	2015–2017	2018–2020	2021–2023	2024
Frozen vegetable preserves	1832.0	2266.4	1675.5	265.3	131.0
Frozen vegetables, including	104.9	663.7	625.1	806.5	1156.1
Vegetables mixed	7.6	0.0	130.8	125.9	139.6
Frozen other: peppers, mushrooms, tomatoes	24.1	52.9	220.5	175.0	543.6
Frozen fruits, including:	144.9	362.5	241.0	276.0	496.0
Frozen raspberries, currants and gooseberries	103.5	181.6	212.2	233.2	434.4
Frozen strawberries	18.3	150.8	43.2	62.7	61.6
Jams, fruit jellies, marmalades, fruit purees and pastes	324.9	290.3	261.6	131.9	88.0
Vegetables, temporarily preserved	140.5	703.6	121.2	137.3	0.0
Canned champignons	52.0	67.2	36.6	11.0	0.0
Other vegetables prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozen	62.3	41.2	29.3	20.4	11.9
Vegetable marinades, including	28.5	2.1	22.5	12.8	18.9
Cucumbers and gherkins	1.9	1.6	21.1	5.2	17.7
Dry vegetables	3.3	9.5	28.9	2.0	0.0

Source: UN Comtrade data. https://comtradeplus.un.org/.

). In 2024, exports of these products amounted to 131 tonnes and 88 tonnes, respectively, representing decreases of over 92% and 66% compared to the 2021–2023 average. During the same periods, a collapse in exports was observed in the case of temporarily preserved vegetables, canned champignons, and dry vegetables. In 2024, the structure of Polish exports was dominated by frozen vegetables and fruit, which are characterised by high added value, long shelf life, and relatively low risk of quality deterioration during intercontinental transport. The largest increase in export volume during the analysed period was recorded for frozen vegetables—from an average of 104.9 tonnes in 2012–2014 to over 1.1 thousand tonnes in 2024. Within this group, other vegetables, primarily mushrooms, accounted for a significant share. The second group of products with growing export significance consisted of frozen fruits, particularly raspberries and blackcurrants. Frozen strawberries, on the other hand, played a lesser role, as their production in Poland has become less competitive compared to that of countries competing in this market. The observed trends may be influenced by rising transport costs, the limited durability of certain processed products, and price competition from South American producers [33]. These cost and logistics constraints also translate into higher transport-related emissions, indicating that the environmental footprint of expanded EU–Mercosur trade will depend not only on trade volumes, but also on the composition of exports and the efficiency of cold-chain logistics. Additionally, according to the FAO report [34], a global increase in demand for frozen and semi-processed products has been observed, as these better align with the needs of the food industry and the HoReCa sector in developing countries.

The PPML gravity model results indicate that the value of Poland’s horticultural exports to Mercosur countries is strongly related to the level of economic development and the socio-economic structure of the partner economies. The coefficient on the logarithm of the importer’s GDP per capita (log(gdp_pc)) is positive, very large (around 1.95), and statistically significant, implying that a 1% increase in GDP per capita in a Mercosur country is associated, on average, with approximately a 1.95% increase in Polish horticultural exports (

Table 9. Estimation Results of the PPML Gravity Model for Poland’s Horticultural Exports to Mercosur Countries.

Variable	b	SE	z	p
log(gdp_pc)	1.951	0.006	348.58	<0.001
rural_pop_share	0.958	0.002	582.50	<0.001
agri_gdp_share	−0.214	0.001	−155.41	<0.001

Notes: Observations: 41, Adjusted pseudo R² = 0.961, Squared correlation = 0.984. Variables removed due to collinearity with fixed effects: log(gdp_pc_pl), rural_pop_share_pl, agri_gdp_share_pl, distance_km. All results estimated using PPML with heteroskedasticity-robust IID standard errors. Source: Own study.

). This points to a more-than-proportional response of import demand to rising income levels and suggests that Polish exports are concentrated in relatively wealthier markets. Notably, similar conclusions have also been reached by other scholars investigating this issue [35]. The positive and significant coefficient on the rural population share in the importing country (rural_pop_share) indicates that a higher share of rural population is associated with higher imports from Poland: an increase of one percentage point in this variable is linked, on average, to almost a 1% increase in export value. This may reflect the greater importance of horticultural products in the food consumption basket of rural populations and the presence of distribution channels connected to local processing. By contrast, the negative and statistically significant coefficient on the agricultural share in GDP (agri_gdp_share) suggests that the stronger the role of agriculture in the partner country’s economy, the lower its propensity to import horticultural products from Poland: a one-percentage-point increase in this share reduces exports by roughly 0.21% on average. This result indicates that countries with a more developed agricultural sector tend to meet domestic demand from their own production, thereby limiting the scope for Polish exports. The inclusion of country and year fixed effects implies that variables characterising Poland (GDP per capita, rural population share, agricultural share in GDP) as well as geographical distance are absorbed by the fixed effects and therefore not identified in the model, which is consistent with standard PPML-based gravity specifications. This indicates that the potential benefits of the EU–Mercosur Agreement for Polish horticultural exports will be uneven across member countries, favouring wealthier and more structurally compatible markets rather than the bloc as a whole. From an environmental standpoint, this suggests that trade expansion is more likely to concentrate in markets capable of absorbing higher-standard, sustainability-compliant products, rather than triggering widespread displacement of local production.

Model diagnostics confirm the adequacy of the PPML specification. The estimation converged without numerical issues, and the signs and magnitudes of coefficients are consistent with theoretical expectations. Robust (sandwich) standard errors were applied to account for potential heteroskedasticity. In addition, alternative specifications excluding individual explanatory variables did not materially affect the direction or statistical significance of the main coefficients, indicating the stability of the results. The PPML estimation provides important insights into the determinants of Poland’s horticultural exports to Mercosur countries; however, the results must be interpreted with caution due to the limited number of observations (34), which constrains the statistical power of the model and reduces the generalisability of the findings. The strong positive elasticity of exports with respect to partner-country income suggests that horticultural imports from Poland behave as normal goods, with demand rising as consumer purchasing power increases. The negative coefficient associated with the agricultural share of GDP reflects the structural substitution effect: countries with a larger agricultural base tend to satisfy domestic demand through local production, thereby reducing their reliance on processed horticultural imports. At the same time, the removal of several variables due to collinearity indicates that macroeconomic characteristics of Poland and Mercosur countries evolve in highly correlated ways, which limits the model’s ability to disentangle their separate effects.

Potential endogeneity concerns should also be acknowledged. First, reverse causality may arise if increased trade flows contribute to economic growth in partner countries, thereby influencing variables such as GDP per capita used as regressors. Second, omitted variable bias may occur if institutional quality, logistics performance, or non-tariff measures—factors not included in the model—affect both trade volumes and the explanatory variables. Third, simultaneity between regulations and trade flows may distort estimates if environmental or phytosanitary regulations are tightened in response to increasing imports. Although the inclusion of partner and year fixed effects mitigates some of these concerns by capturing unobserved heterogeneity and time-specific shocks, it does not fully eliminate endogeneity risks. Future research incorporating instrumental variables or panel data extensions with larger sample sizes would provide more robust evidence.

The structure of Poland’s exports of fruit and vegetables to Mercosur countries evolved—already prior to the entry into force of the free trade agreement—toward products with higher added value. This shift appears beneficial in the context of ensuring the sustainable development of the Polish food industry. At the same time, it confirms the sector’s capacity to adapt to changing market preferences and growing international competition. In the context of sustainable development, it is worth noting that an increasing share of frozen products in exports may contribute to reducing food losses within the supply chain and to more efficient use of agricultural raw materials. The freezing process preserves nutritional value while extending product durability, which aligns with the objectives of the European Green Deal and the principles of the circular economy. Moreover, enhanced transport and processing efficiency, as well as the adoption of modern refrigeration technologies with lower energy consumption, may support the reduction in the carbon footprint of agri-food exports from Poland to Mercosur countries. From a sustainability perspective, the growing share of frozen and semi-processed products implies lower food losses, more efficient use of raw materials, and more predictable logistics, partially offsetting the environmental burden associated with long-distance transport.

The SWOT analysis indicates that the potential benefits of the EU–Mercosur Agreement include export diversification, as well as improvements in competitiveness and opportunities for the development of sustainable production technologies (

Table 10. SWOT analysis of the possibilities of increasing Poland’s export involvement in the fruit, vegetable and processed fruit market in the context of trade liberalisation between the EU and Mercosur.

Strengths	Weaknesses
Strengths include Poland’s strong position in processed horticultural products, particularly frozen fruits and vegetables and apple juice concentrates, which dominate export flows to Mercosur and are better suited to long-distance trade due to their longer shelf life and stable quality. - Wide range of high-quality fruit and vegetable products, including niche and regional varieties (e.g., berries, apples, processed vegetables). - Access to domestic raw material base ensuring product traceability and lower transport emissions. - Modern and efficient processing lines ensuring compliance with EU environmental and quality standards. - Strong reputation of EU agri-food products and high food safety standards. - Increasing adaptation of production to sustainable and circular economy principles (e.g., waste reduction, renewable energy use).	Key weaknesses include high transport and logistics costs associated with intercontinental shipments, as well as limited brand recognition of Polish horticultural products in Mercosur markets, which constrains price competitiveness, particularly for less processed goods. - High production and labour costs compared to Mercosur countries. - Fragmentation of production and weak vertical integration among producers. - Need for costly promotional campaigns and branding to enter new markets. - Limited experience of Polish exporters in long-distance markets (logistics, documentation, cultural differences). - Small producers face difficulties meeting uniform quality and phytosanitary requirements for export. - The requirements in the EU-27 concerning sustainable production and environmental standards contribute to rising production costs.
Opportunities	Threats
Opportunities arise from growing demand in Mercosur for frozen and semi-processed horticultural products, driven by the food industry and the HoReCa sector, which aligns with Poland’s export specialisation in value-added products. - Opportunity to utilise surplus production and diversify export destinations beyond the EU market - Access to a large and growing market (over 270 million consumers) with increasing demand for diversified and processed food. - Potential for technological and knowledge exchange in sustainable agriculture and logistics - Possibility to strengthen the position of Polish and EU producers in global agri-food value chains. - Development of green and digital trade channels (e-commerce, blockchain-based traceability).	Threats include intensified price competition from low-cost producers in Mercosur, particularly in product segments where climatic advantages reduce production costs (e.g., citrus fruits in Brazil), as well as regulatory asymmetries related to environmental and phytosanitary standards, which may undermine the competitive position of EU producers. - Competitive pressure from low-cost Mercosur producers may reduce EU producers’ profitability. - Lower income levels in Mercosur countries may limit demand for premium EU products. - Divergences in environmental and sanitary standards may create non-tariff barriers. - A significantly greater availability and diversity of plant protection products approved for use in Mercosur countries - Increased carbon footprint from intercontinental transport may undermine sustainability goals. - Changes in consumer preferences or protectionist policies may limit import demand.

Source: Own study.

). At the same time, risks associated with cost pressures, differences in environmental standards, and increased transport-related emissions may limit long-term alignment with the European Union’s climate neutrality objectives. The potential absorptive capacity of the developing Mercosur market represents an opportunity for Polish producers and exporters; however, due to the still relatively low income levels of the South American population, achieving the intended goals related to expansion into these markets may prove challenging.

Taken together, the empirical findings indicate that the EU–Mercosur Agreement should be assessed not as a uniform liberalisation shock, but as a conditional instrument whose trade effects depend on structural complementarity, income levels, and the capacity to supply value-added products consistent with sustainability objectives. Overall, the environmental implications of the Agreement will be shaped less by aggregate trade growth and more by product composition, regulatory alignment, and the balance between processed and raw-product flows.

4. Discussion

The discussion below synthesises results obtained from a multi-stage analytical framework, including comparative production analysis, trade structure indicators, and econometric estimation using a PPML gravity model. The comparative production analysis demonstrates that the Mercosur countries possess significant potential for the development of crop production, arising from both the availability of natural resources and growing domestic demand. However, it should be noted that agriculture in this region is predominantly extensive in nature, which translates into high yield variability. The use of more yield-enhancing inputs could not only reduce this variability and increase productivity but also accelerate production dynamics within a relatively short period [17]. According to FAO analysts [33,34], in the coming years, the growth of agricultural production will be concentrated mainly in emerging and developing countries, supported by increased investment and the process of narrowing the technological gap. A crucial role in this process will be played by the availability of resources (especially in Latin America) and the growing consumption demand in other developing regions, such as India and Africa.

At the same time, it should be observed that the potentially strong competitive pressure, identified through the comparative analysis of production and trade structure from suppliers of high-quality agri-food products from the European Union, including Poland, may limit the development of fruit and vegetable crops characteristic of the temperate zone in the Mercosur countries [36]. Conversely, as noted by Bułkowska [20], in North America and Europe the growth rate of agricultural production may slow down, as yield levels and productivity are already very high, while environmental protection policies constrain further intensification of production. Meanwhile, Filipiak [37] and Wicka [38] emphasise that in the Polish fruit and vegetable market—given the stable level of domestic consumption—difficulties may arise in managing production surpluses, which, in fresh or processed form, will have to be allocated for export.

In this context, trade cooperation between the Mercosur countries and the European Union gains particular importance. The values of the Grubel–Lloyd index and trade complementarity indicators presented in Table 5 and Table 6 confirm that trade relations between the EU and Mercosur retain a predominantly North–South character—Brazil primarily exports agricultural raw materials and primary products, while the European Union supplies goods with high added value. Although significant trade barriers between Mercosur and EU countries still exist, the potential benefits of concluding an agreement extend beyond purely economic aspects. Deepening trade cooperation between these regions may also contribute to improving social and environmental conditions, supporting sustainable development and the protection of human rights [39].

Economic relations between the EU and Mercosur confirm the significant role of these groupings in global trade. In 2021, the European Union was the second most important export destination for Mercosur (14%), after China (29%) and ahead of the United States (11%). At the same time, the EU accounted for 19% of Mercosur’s total imports [40]. Given the growing population and increasing levels of affluence, Mercosur countries can be regarded as an attractive and promising market for many types of fruit and vegetables and their processed products.

At the same time, the liberalisation of trade in agricultural products between the EU and Mercosur entails important environmental consequences. In the absence of appropriate legal frameworks, it may negatively affect the climate and biodiversity. However, it also provides an opportunity to export European environmental standards, which are generally more ambitious than those currently in force in the Mercosur countries [41]. Some of the researchers draw attention, that trade liberalisation brings about mirroring selection effects among domestic producers and foreign exporters and focusing only on import variety and domestic productivity gains amounts to cherry-picking only the positive parts [42,43]. Balogh [44] points out, that the states should support the most competitive companies in the agricultural sector, thus strengthening the agricultural.

Differences between the Mercosur and EU markets are also highlighted by other researchers, who indicate that these discrepancies concern not only the production structure and level of technological development but also the categories of products available in online sales (e-retail) [4]. In this context, the application of geographical indications (GIs) may become particularly important, as they represent one of the oldest tools for the protection and promotion of products with unique regional characteristics [38]. Research findings confirm that significant differences exist between the EU and Mercosur in terms of the number, diversity, and representativeness of products protected by GIs, which, in turn, influence institutional mechanisms conducive to achieving economic benefits. A major challenge also lies in the divergent approaches of the EU and Mercosur with respect to sustainable production. It is therefore noteworthy that the use of plant protection products in the EU in 2023 was 20% lower than in 2015. By contrast, global consumption of active substances contained in plant protection products increased during the same period by 12.3%, reaching 3.7 million tonnes. In individual countries, the upward trend was even more pronounced: for example, Brazil recorded an increase of 60.9%, the United States 1.4%, and Argentina 28.8% [45].

The Southern Cone of South America, encompassing countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, has become a leading supplier of agricultural commodities, like: soybeans, maize, wheat, and meat. Meanwhile, other subregions of the area focus on the production of higher value-added goods, including fruit and vegetables, both fresh and processed [46]. The growing awareness that the consumption of raw materials in the European Union may contribute to the expansion of agricultural land in other countries at the expense of natural vegetation and biodiversity is reflected in European public opinion and in the debate concerning the EU–Mercosur trade negotiations [47].

Econometric analyses indicate that achieving sustainable economic competitiveness requires maintaining high levels of yield productivity while pursuing a well-designed foreign trade policy. In particular, economies should prioritise the export of processed agri-food products with higher added value rather than raw materials with limited processing. Monitoring value chain flows remains a key element in ensuring long-term economic competitiveness [48].

As Bułkowska emphasises, the value of Polish agri-food exports is positively and significantly influenced by the difference in GDP between Poland and its trading partners. An increase in this difference promotes higher trade turnover. In contrast, when considering GDP per capita, the relationship is negative, indicating that income disparities between trading countries may foster an increase in trade exchange. In the contemporary global economy, physical distance between countries is no longer a decisive barrier to international exchange, and thus distance in the gravity model can be interpreted as a proxy for the degree of similarity between trading economies. The ongoing process of globalisation is reflected in the long-term intensification of linkages among countries, exemplified in the economic sphere by the progressive integration of national economies. Consequently, an important factor that may further strengthen bilateral trade flows is the participation of trading partners in free trade areas [43].

In recent years, the economic situation in the Mercosur countries has been systematically improving [49,50]. Data indicate that in Latin America and the Caribbean, levels of hunger and food insecurity have decreased, driven by the implementation of social protection programmes and post-COVID-19 economic recovery. Nevertheless, the region continues to face significant inequalities, particularly among women, rural populations, and vulnerable groups. Despite these positive trends, achieving most nutritional goals remains unlikely, and a healthy diet continues to be unaffordable for many consumers.

5. Conclusions

Based on the combined evidence from structural comparisons, quantitative trade indicators, and PPML econometric results, this study examined the potential implications of the EU–Mercosur Agreement for the Polish horticultural sector, with particular emphasis on competitiveness, sustainability, and structural complementarities between the trading partners. By combining production data, trade indicators, and econometric analysis, the paper contributes to the literature by providing a country- and sector-specific assessment of an agreement that is often analysed at an aggregate level.

The empirical results indicate that Poland’s horticultural trade with Mercosur countries remains predominantly inter-industry in nature. This reflects substantial differences in production specialisation, income levels, and regulatory frameworks. Trade complementarity between Poland and Mercosur is generally low, while intra-industry trade remains limited, with the notable exception of Uruguay, where a more balanced exchange is observed in selected product groups. These findings suggest that the trade effects of the EU–Mercosur Agreement are likely to be selective and conditional rather than uniform across products and partner countries.

An analysis of export structure highlights the growing importance of processed and frozen fruit and vegetable products in Poland’s exports to Mercosur. These products are better suited to long-distance trade due to their higher value added, longer shelf life, and lower risk of quality deterioration during intercontinental transport. At the same time, recent declines in exports of certain processed product categories indicate the sensitivity of trade flows to cost pressures, logistics constraints, and competitive conditions in South American markets.

The PPML gravity model confirms the importance of income levels, market size, and distance-related trade costs in shaping Poland’s export performance. Export potential in Mercosur markets appears to be concentrated in higher-income and structurally compatible segments rather than driven by broad-based demand expansion. These results reinforce the conclusion that competitiveness in Mercosur markets is more likely to be achieved through product differentiation and processing intensity than through price-based competition.

From a sustainability perspective, the results indicate that the environmental implications of expanded EU–Mercosur trade will depend less on aggregate trade growth and more on export composition, regulatory alignment, and supply-chain efficiency. Processed and frozen products, while associated with transport-related emissions, may offer a more predictable environmental profile when supported by efficient cold-chain logistics and compliance with EU sustainability standards. Whether the EU–Mercosur Agreement strengthens or undermines the objectives of the European Green Deal therefore depends critically on how sustainability commitments are implemented and enforced in practice.

The findings suggest several clear practical implications. Trade and export-support policies should prioritise selective market integration rather than broad-based export expansion, focusing on product segments in which Poland holds a demonstrated competitive advantage, particularly processed and frozen horticultural goods. Export promotion strategies should be differentiated across Mercosur markets, reflecting differences in income levels and demand structures identified in the econometric analysis. Ensuring consistency with sustainability objectives requires that trade liberalisation be accompanied by enforceable regulatory alignment mechanisms, especially in areas related to environmental standards, pesticide use, and traceability. For producers and agri-food enterprises, long-term competitiveness in Mercosur markets is most likely to be achieved through value-added strategies, quality differentiation, and supply-chain efficiency rather than through price competition. These conclusions are derived from a triangulated analytical framework rather than from descriptive observation of individual data series.