The EU–Mercosur Agreement: An Opportunity or a Threat to the Sustainability of the European and Polish Fruit and Vegetable Sector?

This study examines the potential implications of the EU–Mercosur free trade agreement for the Polish horticultural sector, with particular emphasis on sustainability, trade competitiveness, and structural complementarities between the regions. Drawing on production, trade, and demographic data for the EU, Poland, and Mercosur countries, the analysis evaluates the alignment of horticultural supply and demand structures, the degree of intra-industry exchange, and the economic conditions shaping bilateral trade. The research applies the Grubel–Lloyd index and a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) gravity model to assess the determinants of Poland’s horticultural exports to Mercosur. The results indicate that trade remains predominantly inter-industry, reflecting substantial differences in agricultural specialisation and regulatory frameworks. At the same time, rising income levels in Mercosur, together with selected product-level complementarities, indicate emerging export opportunities for Poland. Poland’s trade with the Southern Common Market remains mainly as inter-industry, with the greatest export potential concentrated in high-value-added processed goods. Divergent sustainability standards, particularly in pesticide use, environmental regulation, and carbon-intensive transport, pose structural challenges that may affect the competitiveness and environmental footprint of expanded trade. Overall, the findings provide evidence that closer integration with Mercosur may support export diversification, but requires careful alignment with the EU’s sustainability objectives to ensure resilient and environmentally responsible development of the horticultural sector.