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Open AccessArticle

China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend

1
School of Banking & Finance, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3
Academy of Macroeconomic Research, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China
4
NCMIS, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
5
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
6
Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2019, 11(14), 3928; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11143928
Received: 19 June 2019 / Revised: 13 July 2019 / Accepted: 15 July 2019 / Published: 19 July 2019
The growth of vehicle ownership not only brings opportunity for the economy, but also brings environment and transport problems, which is not good for sustainable transportation. It is of great significance to build supporting infrastructure and other services based on accurate forecasts of vehicle ownership in various provinces because of the variance of economic development stages, the carrying capacity of resources, and different degrees of transport planning in each province. We used the Gompertz model in order to predict China’s provincial vehicle ownership from 2018 to 2050. Considering the impact of the population structure, we summed up the growth rate of GDP per labor, the growth rate of population and the growth rate of employment rate to get the growth rate of GDP and then the GDP per capita of each province. We found that the vehicle ownership in each province will grow rapidly in the next 30 years; however, the change in the ranking of vehicle ownership among provinces varies. The ranking of some provinces with high or middle ranking now will decline in the following years, especially Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Xinjiang. While the ranking of some provinces that locates in the middle and low ranking now will increase, such as Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Hunan and Guangxi. We also investigate the reasons that affect the trend in each province and we find that the suitable vehicle growth pattern of each province, the stage of economic development and government policy, which are related to the growth rate of GDP per labor, employment rate, and GDP per capita, can affect vehicle ownership in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: vehicle ownership forecast; Gompertz model; GDP per capita; trends comparison; cause analysis vehicle ownership forecast; Gompertz model; GDP per capita; trends comparison; cause analysis
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ma, L.; Wu, M.; Tian, X.; Zheng, G.; Du, Q.; Wu, T. China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend. Sustainability 2019, 11, 3928. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11143928

AMA Style

Ma L, Wu M, Tian X, Zheng G, Du Q, Wu T. China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend. Sustainability. 2019; 11(14):3928. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11143928

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ma, Lin; Wu, Manhua; Tian, Xiujuan; Zheng, Guanheng; Du, Qinchuan; Wu, Tian. 2019. "China’s Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend" Sustainability 11, no. 14: 3928. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11143928

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