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Development of a Model for Predicting Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost for the Early Stage of Public-Office Construction

1
Department of Architectural Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul 02504, Korea
2
Research and Development Center, PMPgM Co., Ltd., Seoul 02504, Korea
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2019, 11(14), 3828; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11143828
Received: 5 June 2019 / Revised: 24 June 2019 / Accepted: 10 July 2019 / Published: 12 July 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Engineering and Science)
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Abstract

Decisions made in the early stages of construction projects significantly influence the costs incurred in subsequent stages. Therefore, such decisions must be based on the life-cycle cost (LCC), which includes the maintenance, repair, and replacement (MRR) costs in addition to construction costs. Furthermore, as uncertainty is inherent during the early stages, it must be considered in making predictions of the LCC more probabilistic. This study proposes a probabilistic LCC prediction model developed by applying the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to an LCC prediction model based on case-based reasoning (CBR) to support the decision-making process in the early stages of construction projects. The model was developed in two phases: first, two LCC prediction models were constructed using CBR and multiple-regression analysis. Through k-fold validation, one model with superior prediction performance was selected; second, a probabilistic LCC model was developed by applying the MCS to the selected model. The probabilistic LCC prediction model proposed in this study can generate probabilistic prediction results that consider the uncertainty of information available at the early stages of a project. Thus, it can enhance reliability in actual situations and be more useful for clients who support both construction and MRR costs, such as those in the public sector. View Full-Text
Keywords: cost prediction; probabilistic model; early stage; life-cycle cost; case-based reasoning; Monte Carlo simulation cost prediction; probabilistic model; early stage; life-cycle cost; case-based reasoning; Monte Carlo simulation
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Jin, Z.; Kim, J.; Hyun, C.-T.; Han, S. Development of a Model for Predicting Probabilistic Life-Cycle Cost for the Early Stage of Public-Office Construction. Sustainability 2019, 11, 3828.

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