Next Article in Journal
Development of an Ex-Ante Sustainability Assessment Methodology for Municipal Solid Waste Management Innovations
Next Article in Special Issue
Energy Efficient Deployment of a Service Function Chain for Sustainable Cloud Applications
Previous Article in Journal
Does Seeing “Mind Acts Upon Mind” Affect Green Psychological Climate and Green Product Development Performance? The Role of Matching Between Green Transformational Leadership and Individual Green Values
Previous Article in Special Issue
An Empirical Study on the Design of Digital Content Products from a Big Data Perspective
Article Menu
Issue 9 (September) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Sustainability 2018, 10(9), 3207; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093207

Risk Scenario Generation Based on Importance Measure Analysis

School of Reliability & Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 23 June 2018 / Revised: 3 September 2018 / Accepted: 5 September 2018 / Published: 7 September 2018
Full-Text   |   PDF [6698 KB, uploaded 7 September 2018]   |  

Abstract

A risk scenario is a combination of risk events that may result in system failure. Risk scenario analysis is an important part of system risk assessment and avoidance. In engineering activity-based systems, important risk scenarios are related to important events. Critical activities, meanwhile, mean risk events that may result in system failure. This article proposes these definitions of risk event and risk scenario based on the characteristics of risk in engineering activity-based systems. Under the proposed definitions, a risk scenario framework generated based on importance measure analysis is given, in which critical activities analysis, risk event identification, and risk scenario generation are the three main parts. Important risk events are identified according to activities’ uncertain importance measure and important risk scenarios are generated on the basis of a system’s critical activities analysis. In the risk scenario generation process based on importance analysis, the importance degrees of network activities are ranked to identify the subject of risk events, so that risk scenarios can be combined and generated by risk events and the importance of scenarios is analyzed. Critical activities are analyzed by Taguchi tolerance design, mathematical analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation methods. Then the degrees of uncertain importance measure of activities are solved by the three methods and these results are compared. The comparison results in the example show that the proposed method of uncertain importance measure is very effective for distinguishing the importance level of activities in systems. The calculation and simulation results also verify that the risk events composed of critical activities can generate risk scenarios. View Full-Text
Keywords: risk scenario; importance measure; uncertain importance measure; Monte Carlo simulation risk scenario; importance measure; uncertain importance measure; Monte Carlo simulation
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Pan, X.; Hu, L.; Xin, Z.; Zhou, S.; Lin, Y.; Wu, Y. Risk Scenario Generation Based on Importance Measure Analysis. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3207.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Sustainability EISSN 2071-1050 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top