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Forests 2017, 8(9), 307; https://doi.org/10.3390/f8090307

A Markov Chain Model for Simulating Wood Supply from Any-Aged Forest Management Based on National Forest Inventory (NFI) Data

Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Economics and Society, Yliopistokatu 6, FI-80100 Joensuu, Finland
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Academic Editors: Thomas J. Straka and Timothy A. Martin
Received: 13 July 2017 / Revised: 11 August 2017 / Accepted: 18 August 2017 / Published: 23 August 2017
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Abstract

Markov chain models have been applied for a long time to simulate forest dynamics based on transitions in matrices of tree diameter classes or areas of forest size and structure types. To date, area-based matrix models have been applied assuming either even-aged or uneven-aged forest management. However, both management systems may be applied simultaneously due to land-use constraints or the rationality of combining the systems, which is called any-aged management. We integrated two different Markov chain models, one for even-aged and another for uneven-aged forest management, in an area-based approach to analyze wood supply from any-aged forest management. We evaluate the impacts of parameterizing the model based on available data sets, namely permanent and temporary Finnish National Forest Inventory (NFI) sample plots and a plot-level simulator to determine transitions due to different types of thinning treatments, and present recommendations for the related methodological choices. Our overall observation is that the combined modelling chain simulated the development of both the even- and uneven-aged forest structures realistically. Due to the flexibility of the implementation, the approach is very well suited for situations where scenario assumptions need to be varied according to expected changes in silvicultural practices or land-use constraints, for example. View Full-Text
Keywords: European forestry dynamics model (EFDM); forest resource projection; integrated forest management; harvesting target; scenario analysis European forestry dynamics model (EFDM); forest resource projection; integrated forest management; harvesting target; scenario analysis
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Vauhkonen, J.; Packalen, T. A Markov Chain Model for Simulating Wood Supply from Any-Aged Forest Management Based on National Forest Inventory (NFI) Data. Forests 2017, 8, 307.

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