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Open AccessArticle

Predicting the Potential Global Geographical Distribution of Two Icerya Species under Climate Change

by Yang Liu and Juan Shi *
Sino-France Joint Laboratory for Invasive Forest Pests in Eurasia, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forests 2020, 11(6), 684; https://doi.org/10.3390/f11060684
Received: 28 April 2020 / Revised: 13 June 2020 / Accepted: 14 June 2020 / Published: 17 June 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Control and Management of Invasive Species in Forest Ecosystems)
Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including insects. Icerya aegyptiaca (Douglas) and I. purchasi Maskell are two polyphagous and invasive pests in the genus Icerya Signoret (Hemiptera: Monophlebidae) and cause serious damage to many landscape and economic trees. However, the global habitats suitable for these two Icerya species are unclear. The purpose of this study is to determine the potentially suitable habitats of these two species, then to provide scientific management strategies. Using MaxEnt software, the potential risk maps of I. aegyptiaca and I. purchasi were created based on their occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors. The results suggested that under current climate conditions, the potentially habitable area of I. aegyptiaca would be much larger than the current distribution and there would be small changes for I. purchasi. In the future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitats of these two insect species will display an increasing trend. Africa, South America and Asia would be more suitable for I. aegyptiaca. South America, Asia and Europe would be more suitable for I. purchasi. Moreover, most of the highly habitat suitability areas of I. aegyptiaca will become concentrated in Southern Asia. The results also suggested that “min temperature of coldest month” was the most important environmental factor affecting the prediction models of these two insects. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policies to manage and control these two invasive pests of the genus Icerya. View Full-Text
Keywords: Icerya aegyptiaca; Icerya purchasi; MaxEnt ecological niche models; geographical information system; geographical distribution; climate change Icerya aegyptiaca; Icerya purchasi; MaxEnt ecological niche models; geographical information system; geographical distribution; climate change
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Liu, Y.; Shi, J. Predicting the Potential Global Geographical Distribution of Two Icerya Species under Climate Change. Forests 2020, 11, 684.

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