Next Article in Journal
The Effect of Tree Crown Allometry on Community Dynamics in Mixed-Species Stands versus Monocultures. A Review and Perspectives for Modeling and Silvicultural Regulation
Next Article in Special Issue
Web-Based Forest Resources Management Decision Support System
Previous Article in Journal
Differential Responses and Controls of Soil CO2 and N2O Fluxes to Experimental Warming and Nitrogen Fertilization in a Subalpine Coniferous Spruce (Picea asperata Mast.) Plantation Forest
Previous Article in Special Issue
Using Machine Learning to Assess Site Suitability for Afforestation with Particular Species
Open AccessArticle

Spatial Pattern of Climate Change Effects on Lithuanian Forestry

1
Agriculture Academy, Vytautas Magnus University, Studentų Str. 11, Akademija LT-53361, Kaunas dstr., Lithuania
2
Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sundsvägen 3, Alnarp SE-23053, Sweden
3
Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, Saulėtekio ave. 3, Vilnius LT-10297, Lithuania
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forests 2019, 10(9), 809; https://doi.org/10.3390/f10090809
Received: 16 July 2019 / Accepted: 15 September 2019 / Published: 17 September 2019
Research Highlights: Validating modelling approach which combines global framework conditions in the form of climate and policy scenarios with the use of forest decision support system to assess climate change impacts on the sustainability of forest management. Background and Objectives: Forests and forestry have been confirmed to be sensitive to climate. On the other hand, human efforts to mitigate climate change influence forests and forest management. To facilitate the evaluation of future sustainability of forest management, decision support systems are applied. Our aims are to: (1) Adopt and validate decision support tool to incorporate climate change and its mitigation impacts on forest growth, global timber demands and prices for simulating future trends of forest ecosystem services in Lithuania, (2) determine the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change effects on Lithuanian forests and forest management in the future, supposing that current forestry practices are continued. Materials and Methods: Upgraded version of Lithuanian forestry simulator Kupolis was used to model the development of all forests in the country until 2120 under management conditions of three climate change scenarios. Selected stand-level forest and forest management characteristics were aggregated to the level of regional branches of the State Forest Enterprise and analyzed for the spatial and temporal patterns of climate change effects. Results: Increased forest growth under a warmer future climate resulted in larger tree dimensions, volumes of growing stock, naturally dying trees, harvested assortments, and also higher profits from forestry activities. Negative impacts were detected for the share of broadleaved tree species in the standing volume and the tree species diversity. Climate change effects resulted in spatially clustered patterns—increasing stand productivity, and amounts of harvested timber were concentrated in the regions with dominating coniferous species, while the same areas were exposed to negative dynamics of biodiversity-related forest attributes. Current forest characteristics explained 70% or more of the variance of climate change effects on key forest and forest management attributes. Conclusions: Using forest decision support systems, climate change scenarios and considering the balance of delivered ecosystem services is suggested as a methodological framework for validating forest management alternatives aiming for more adaptiveness in Lithuanian forestry. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; mitigation efforts; forestry; ecosystem services; simulation; spatial statistics climate change; mitigation efforts; forestry; ecosystem services; simulation; spatial statistics
Show Figures

Graphical abstract

MDPI and ACS Style

Mozgeris, G.; Brukas, V.; Pivoriūnas, N.; Činga, G.; Makrickienė, E.; Byčenkienė, S.; Marozas, V.; Mikalajūnas, M.; Dudoitis, V.; Ulevičius, V.; Augustaitis, A. Spatial Pattern of Climate Change Effects on Lithuanian Forestry. Forests 2019, 10, 809.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop