1. Introduction
The idea of sustainable and balanced development is currently a valid postulate, a way of human activity in all developed and developing countries of the world.
According to [
1], sustainable and balanced development aims to permanently improve the quality of life of present and future generations by properly shaping the proportions between the different types of capital: economic, human, and natural. One of the basic tenets of this concept is the principle: “think globally—act locally”.
The paradigm of sustainable development—equal treatment of the economic, social, environmental, and cultural spheres—is the basis of the development strategy and current economic policy of the European Union as well [
2].
Currently, the aspect of eco-friendliness, i.e., the necessity to reduce the negative impact on the environment, is the main factor leading to the development of techniques and technologies and organizations in all fields of economy, including especially transport.
This is of great importance, since among the sectors of the economy, transport has the greatest adverse impact on the environment, and within the transport sector itself, road transport is the significant source responsible for greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the European Environment Agency, transport, together with the energy and industrysectors, has for many years been the main source of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union (
Figure 1) and accounted for 25% of GHG emissions in 2018 (
Figure 2).
Its negative impact on the environment is mainly related to [
3]:
- ✓
Greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change;
- ✓
Emission of air pollutants with negative impact on human health and natural environment;
- ✓
Occupation of valuable natural areas and cutting their continuity (fragmentation) with newlybuilt technical infrastructure routes, contributing to the loss of biodiversity;
- ✓
Emission of noise hazardous to human health.
Hence, the 21st century brings many questions about the future of the automotive industry. The last three decades have provided a rapid development in internal combustion engine technology. This was a consequence of improved manufacturing techniques and the introduction of electronics to the automotive industry. While manufacturers previously focused on improving engine performance and efficiency, growing environmental awareness and new regulatory requirements have resulted in a focus on technology to optimize performance and economy. As a result, modern combustion units have an increasingly low environmental impact and reduced noise emissions, while maintaining excellent engine characteristics.
According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, noise from passenger cars has been reduced by 90% since 1970 [
4]. Ninety-five percent of vehicle components are recovered for use as spare parts, recyclable materials, or in energy production. In addition, road transport has seen a greater reduction in emissions compared to other modes of transport. One car in 1970 produced as much pollution as 100 cars do today. The emission limits for gaseous and particulate pollutants laid down in the European Euro 6 standard are many times lower than those previously in force. Today, particulate matter filters can reduce particulate emissions from diesel vehicles by more than 99%. In 1995, 89% of new cars emitted more than 161 g/km of CO2, and only 3% of vehicles emitted 140 g/km or less. In 2008, already 42% of new cars emitted less than 140 g/km of CO
2 and only 31% more than 161 g/km. Due to stringent regulations, the exhaust gas emitted by new vehicles is already cleaner than the ambient air in some urban environments [
4].
Figure 3 shows the average of CO
2 emissions generated by newly sold cars in the European Union [
5].
However, on a sectoral basis, the impact remains significant, due in part to the ever-increasing number of vehicles on the road [
6] (
Figure 4). The continuous growth in demand for transport therefore requires further measures to limit its negative effects.
As a result, car manufacturers are, among other things, looking for other sources of propulsion than the internal combustion engine. It should not be forgotten that oil resources—the raw material for the production of fuels used in cars—are limited, and most deposits are present in politically unstable areas. Both of these factors carry the threat of an automotive crisis. Vehicle manufacturers are aware that the one who comes up with an alternative solution that is cheaper and no less reliable than the internal combustion vehicle can become the leader of the automotive industry.
Currently, apart from the threats posed by the oil market, the ecological brand image is also very important and has a direct impact on sales results. This is due to increasing public awareness and effective lobbying by environmental organizations. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) seem to be an alternative to internal combustion engines, especially when electricity is obtained from renewable sources [
7,
8,
9,
10].
According to the transport policy currently being implemented by the European Union, such cars are to be the most important means of transport in the future. According to the most optimistic forecasts [
11], in 2035 all new passenger cars sold at that time will be fully electric (
Figure 5). This is to be driven primarily by the fulfilment of specific objective 1 of the White Paper 2011, which aims to halve the number of conventionally fueled cars in urban transport by 2030 and eliminate them from cities by 2050, and to achieve essentially CO
2-free logistics in major urban centers by 2030 [
12].
More cautious assumptions were made by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, which assumes that electric vehicles will account for 3–10% of new car sales in 2020–2025. However, the European Environment Agency, analyzingcurrent market data, predicts that the market share of such vehicles in those years will be at the level of 2–8%.
Electrification of the transport sector is also one of the priorities of transport policy in Poland—a member of the European Union.
To meet the high expectations towards the transport sector, the Ministry of Energy in cooperation with the Ministry of Development presented the “Package for Clean Transport”, a set of three documents that define the strategy for electromobility development in Poland [
13,
14,
15,
16], namely:
- −
The Electromobility Development Plan;
- −
A national policy framework for alternative fuel infrastructure development;
- −
The Low-Emission Transport Fund.
Complementing the cited regulations is the project adopted in September 2019 entitled “Sustainable Transport Development Strategy until 2030”, which indicates, in particular, modern solutions facilitating the functioning of the entire transport sector and reducing its negative impact on the environment and climate, so as to be able to create a sustainable transport system of the country by 2030. The strategy anticipates that the number of passenger cars will remain at 26–27 million units from 2022 onwards, but the structure will change, i.e., the electric vehicle fleet will grow to reach over 600,000 units in 2030 [
17].
At present, the share of BEVs on the automotive market in Poland is insignificant, amounting to 0.03% (6556 units) in 2020 (
Figure 6).
At present, the factors that particularly impede the development of the electric vehicle market in Poland are the relatively poorly developed charging infrastructure available widely for such vehicles, long battery charging time, and a large variety of connectors.
In addition, concerns of potential BEV users relate to the potential cost and location of vehicle servicing. At present, there are no independent service points for electric cars as a result of the lack of access to service procedures for this category of vehicles. This situation may give rise to consumer concerns about increasing the price of BEV service.
The development of electromobility is also affected by the limited number of electric vehicle models that potential buyers have at their disposal, e.g., in 2020, consumers in Poland had a choice of only forty-two BEV models [
18], which, in addition, could often not be seen at a car showroom and, once purchased, had to reckon with a longer waiting time for collection. In addition, not all dealers sell such cars. For example, a Volkswagen with an electric drive can be bought in Poland and then serviced only in 4 out of 85 dealerships of this concern [
19].
However, the most important factors impeding the development of zero-emission transport remain the high purchase costs of electric cars compared with their combustion-ignition counterparts [
20,
21,
22,
23,
24,
25,
26]. The catalogue purchase price of a new electric car is about 80% higher than a similarly equipped model offered with an internal combustion engine within each brand. This is some averaging because depending on the brands, the price difference can range from about 40% to as much as 140%.
Table 1 compares the prices of BEVs with conventionally powered cars of similar power and equipment.
Meanwhile, the automotive market in Poland is dominated by internal combustion vehicles (
Figure 7) [
27]), of which only 8% were at most 3 years old in 2019. Cars between 10 and 20 years old constituted at that time 43% of the total number of passenger cars, and cars over 20 years old—38%, i.e., the total number of passenger cars over 10 years old constituted 81% of the total number of passenger cars in Poland (
Figure 8) [
28].
The average age of a car on Polish roads is about 14 years [
29]. In 2019, about twice as many used passenger cars were bought in Poland as new ones, and this proportion has remained the case since Poland joined the European Union, as the price of the vehicle and the significant decrease in the initial value of new vehicles over time are the most important factors for the buyer.
According to companies selling used passenger cars, the average purchase price of such a vehicle in Poland in 2019 was PLN 17,000 [
30], the median price of a used car was PLN 18,900 [
31,
32].
Meanwhile, analyzing the prices of electric cars on the secondary market, the average price of an accident-free BEV in Poland, with no damage, is currently PLN 140,982, while the median price is PLN 122,900. The cost of purchasing the BEVs most frequently bought in Poland has been presented in
Table 2.
However, enthusiasts of such vehicles believe that the high purchase price is offset by the relatively small costs associated with operating a BEV. They argue that a simplistic approach to cost-effectiveness, emphasizing purchase cost, may lead to the conclusion that a more expensive electric vehicle a priori will not be worthwhile at this time. According to them, this simplification is unjustified and may lead to wrong conclusions as it does not take into account the numerous cost components other than purchasing. Therefore, they propose a holistic approach, reflected in total cost of ownership (TCO), which takes into account the actual, total costs associated with buying, commissioning, using, maintaining, and selling assets. This was the approach chosen as the most reliable and appropriate for the purposes of this research. As a result, one of the first comparisons in Poland was made of the economics of an electric passenger car relative to a conventional vehicle under conditions of long-term, everyday use. In determining the TCO, the actual total purchase cost, fuel cost, insurance, maintenance and repairs, taxes, and surcharges were considered (
Figure 9).
The analysis made it possible to determine whether the electric passenger car can currently compete with a combustion engine car in common use in Polish conditions. Similar analyses have already been conducted by authors in other countries. However, the results of individual calculations differ even when the analyses are carried out for vehicles of the same type and, as a consequence, they arrive at divergent conclusions that favor electric vehicles to various degrees [
33]. Authors make different initial assumptions and use different methods to calculate total vehicle operating costs. In addition, economic and political conditions significantly affect the results of calculations; therefore, the results of analyses with the same initial assumptions made for different countries may differ (the presence and amount of subsidies, different electricity and fuel rates, different regulations on allowances for electric vehicles, depreciation charges, and taxes).
In their analyses, authors usually compare the TCO of vehicles with different propulsion types from one market segment (mini, city, compact, or premium cars). For each segment, the total cost of ownership curves for the multi-year analysis are different. For example, for an analysis performed under Belgian conditions, vehicles were divided into three classes: city cars, mid-range cars, and premium cars [
34]. According to the results of this analysis, electric city cars are not economically attractive without enabling battery leasing, which only select manufacturers’ offers. In the remaining vehicle classes, the differences in TCO are smaller, but again, the TCO of electric vehicles does not equal that of conventionally powered vehicles after the assumed analysis period (7 years). Another analysis, conducted for Swedish conditions, showed that the electric vehicle analyzed could be cost-effective with appropriately chosen amounts of government subsidies [
35]. By subsidizing the purchase of an electric car with 22% of the initial price, the TCO of an electric car can be more than 5% lower than a conventional or hybrid car after just 3 years of use.
The authors of another publication [
36] demonstrate that plug-in hybrid cars are the most cost-effective type of vehicles in Germany because the variable costs related to their operation are relatively low and the purchase price is not as high as for electric cars. According to another study, the profitability of electric cars strongly depends on the distance traveled per year. According to the authors, electric cars are a cost-effective solution when considering urban vehicles that travel at least 41.6 km per day. Vehicles from other segments of the market may be worthwhile for covering a greater daily distance of 77.9 km [
37].
4. Conclusions
The future of the automotive market is linked to the use of electric motor technology. Due to increasing restrictions on CO2 emissions and the growing uncertainty of the oil market, manufacturers are forced to look for alternative automotive solutions. An electric motor seems to be the best solution.
At present, the market of electric passenger vehicles in Poland is poorly developed, which is undoubtedly related to their purchase price. It is such that despite the lower costs associated with their use compared to their internal combustion engine counterparts, the total cost of ownership is higher than for conventional vehicles. Therefore, in order for electric cars to be economically competitive with their combustion counterparts, appropriate steps need to be taken to lower the TCO. Admittedly, there are already privileges that reduce the costs associated with operating a BEV, but the reduction is insignificant.
Electric cars are exempt from fees in paid parking zones. Assuming daily parking in the paid parking zone for 1 h, the annual saving will be about PLN 750. For those who are forced to leave their vehicle in such a zone for the time of work (8 h), the annual saving may amount to about PLN 6000.
According to the Act on Electromobility and Alternative Fuels, drivers of conventionallypropelled vehicles are required to pay a fee, which may be up to PLN 2.50 per hour, to be able to drive in the Clean Transport Zone. Assuming the maximum possible rate, it will cost PLN 1260 per year for a combustion car to stay in this zone for an average of two hours per day. With this assumption, using an electric car will also bring an additional financial benefit. However, in Poland, so far the only city that has introduced a clean transport zone was Krakow, and it was in force in the required form for only two months. It was protested by inhabitants and entrepreneurs conducting business in its area, and as a result it was replaced with a limited traffic zone, which made it practically meaningless. The local authority has extended access to the zone for suppliers to 10 h a day, and will allow access from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. to any vehicle whose driver indicates that they are a customer or contractor of any business operating in the zone.
Electric vehicles have the advantage of using bus lanes. This enables more efficient mobility in conurbations with heavy traffic and can reduce the energy consumption of an electric vehicle, thus reducing charging costs. Meanwhile, in Poland, electric car drivers enjoy the privilege of driving on bus lanes, as long as they drive in the four largest cities, namely Warsaw, Krakow, Wroclaw, and Lodz.
So, in order to encourage consumers to buy an electric car it seems reasonable to introduce:
- −
Subsidies for their purchase regardless of their price;
- −
Tax relief, i.e., a significant reduction in the price of the vehicle already at the time of purchase
So that their purchase price is leveled out, compensating to a degree approaching the purchase price of a conventional car. This is very important considering the fact that after 8 years or 160,000 km it is recommended to replace the battery in an electric car, which generates an additional cost of PLN 86,000 to 100,000.
Such subsidies for electric vehicles are being successfully implemented, among others, in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, where electromobility is also in its initial phase of development. One example is Romania, where under the “Rabla Plus” program (2017) subsidies for fully electric cars amount to approximately PLN 40,000. According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, in 2018 the country recorded the largest (at over 220% y/y) increase in electric car registrations of all EU member states, apart from Denmark.
Buyers of electric cars are supported financially in other countries of the community, including those where the electromobility market is at a much higher level of development than in Poland. For example, there are currently over 300,000 electrically powered cars on the road in Germany, compared to 40 times less in Poland. Despite this fact, they decided to increase subsidies for zero- and low-emission vehicles there in November 2019. In the case of BEV models costing less than PLN 171,000, the support was increased to PLN 26,000, while for BEV models costing more than PLN 171,000 it was decided to increase the subsidies to PLN 21,000.
In addition, electric cars in Germany registered before 31 December 2020 are exempt from motor vehicle tax for 10 years.
A similarly expansive benefits package is available to EV buyers in France, which for the first nine months of 2019 ranked third in terms of EV registrations in the European Union. Since 2008, a bonus-malus system has been in force in France, under which the purchase of vehicles with the highest emission levels is charged with additional fees exceeding PLN 43,000. On the other hand, buyers of electric cars can count on environmental bonus at the level of about PLN 26,000, which, however, cannot exceed 27% of the value of subsidized vehicle. Additionally, those who decide to scrap their old car with a petrol or diesel engine and replace it with an EV are entitled to PLN 11,000. As a result, the total amount of subsidies that buyers of electric vehicles can count on may be as high as PLN 36,000. Taking into account the fees charged to combustion models, buying an EV in France becomes even more profitable, which is reflected in the dynamic development of the electromobility market there.