Next Article in Journal
European Bank’s Performance and Efficiency
Next Article in Special Issue
Is One Diagnostic Test for COVID-19 Enough?
Previous Article in Journal
Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates with Dynamic Constrained Smoothing B-Splines
Previous Article in Special Issue
Suspending Classes Without Stopping Learning: China’s Education Emergency Management Policy in the COVID-19 Outbreak
 
Search for Articles:
Title / Keyword
Author / Affiliation
Journal
Article Type
 
 
Advanced Search
 
Section
Special Issue
Volume
Issue
Number
Page
Journals
JRFM
Volume 13
Issue 4
10.3390/jrfm13040066
jrfm-logo
Submit to this Journal Review for this Journal Edit a Special Issue
► Article Menu

Article Menu

share announcement question_answer thumb_up
...
textsms
...
Article

Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy

by
Xiao-Guang Yue
1,2,3,
Xue-Feng Shao
4,*,
Rita Yi Man Li
5,
M. James C. Crabbe
6,7,8,
Lili Mi
9,
Siyan Hu
10,*,
Julien S Baker
11,
Liting Liu
12 and
Kechen Dong
13
1
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, School of Sciences, European University Cyprus, Nicosia 1516, Cyprus
2
Center for Research and Innovation in Business Sciences and Information Systems, Polytechnic Institute of Porto, 4610-156 Felgueiras, Portugal
3
Rattanakosin International College of Creative Entrepreneurship, Rajamangala University of Technology Rattanakosin, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand
4
Discipline of International Business, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
5
Department of Economics and Finance, HKSYU Real Estate and Economics Research Lab, Sustainable Real Estate Research Center, Hong Kong Shue Yan University, Hong Kong 999077, China
6
Wolfson College, Oxford University, Oxford OX2 6UD, UK
7
Institute of Biomedical and Environmental Science and Technology, University of Bedfordshire, Luton LU1 3JU, UK
8
School of Life Science, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China
9
Department of Business Strategy and Innovation, Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD 4111, Australia
10
International Engineering and Technology Institute, Hong Kong 999077, China
11
Centre for Health and Exercise Science Research, Department of Sport, Physical Education and Health, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong 999077, China
12
Department of Soil Science, University of Saskatchewan, 51 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A8, Canada
13
Adelaide Business School, the University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia
 
add Show full affiliation list
 
remove Hide full affiliation list
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13(4), 66; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13040066
Received: 13 February 2020 / Revised: 23 March 2020 / Accepted: 30 March 2020 / Published: 3 April 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19’s Risk Management and Its Impact on the Economy)
View Full-Text Download PDF
Browse Figures

Abstract

This study first analyzes the national and global infection status of the Coronavirus Disease that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19). It then uses the trend comparison method to predict the inflection point and Key Point of the COVID-19 virus by comparison with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) graphs, followed by using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model, Autoregressive Moving Average model, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average with Exogenous Regressors, and Holt Winter’s Exponential Smoothing to predict infections, deaths, and GDP in China. Finally, it discusses and assesses the impact of these results. This study argues that even if the risks and impacts of the epidemic are significant, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady development. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; China’s economy; severe acute respiratory syndrome; GDP; autoregressive moving average model; autoregressive integrated moving average model; seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average with exogenous regressors; Holt Winter’s exponential smoothing COVID-19; China’s economy; severe acute respiratory syndrome; GDP; autoregressive moving average model; autoregressive integrated moving average model; seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average with exogenous regressors; Holt Winter’s exponential smoothing
►▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited
SciFeed

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Yue, X.-G.; Shao, X.-F.; Li, R.Y.M.; Crabbe, M.J.C.; Mi, L.; Hu, S.; Baker, J.S.; Liu, L.; Dong, K. Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy. J. Risk Financial Manag. 2020, 13, 66. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13040066

AMA Style

Yue X-G, Shao X-F, Li RYM, Crabbe MJC, Mi L, Hu S, Baker JS, Liu L, Dong K. Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy. Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 2020; 13(4):66. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13040066

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yue, Xiao-Guang, Xue-Feng Shao, Rita Y.M. Li, M. J.C. Crabbe, Lili Mi, Siyan Hu, Julien S. Baker, Liting Liu, and Kechen Dong. 2020. "Risk Prediction and Assessment: Duration, Infections, and Death Toll of the COVID-19 and Its Impact on China’s Economy" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 13, no. 4: 66. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13040066

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Metrics

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop