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Article

Economic Evaluation of Mental Health Effects of Flooding Using Bayesian Networks

1
Centre for Environmental and Agricultural Informatics, School of Water, Energy and Environment (SWEE), Cranfield University, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK
2
Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, UCL, London WC1E 6BT, UK
3
Centre for Sustainable Business Practices, University of Northampton, Northampton NN1 5PH, UK
4
Research Centre for Computational Science and Mathematical Modelling, School of Computing, Electronics and Mathematics, Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Howard H. Chang
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(14), 7467; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18147467
Received: 7 June 2021 / Revised: 6 July 2021 / Accepted: 9 July 2021 / Published: 13 July 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Data Science for Environment and Health Applications)
The appraisal of appropriate levels of investment for devising flooding mitigation and to support recovery interventions is a complex and challenging task. Evaluation must account for social, political, environmental and other conditions, such as flood state expectations and local priorities. The evaluation method should be able to quickly identify evolving investment needs as the incidence and magnitude of flood events continue to grow. Quantification is essential and must consider multiple direct and indirect effects on flood related outcomes. The method proposed is this study is a Bayesian network, which may be used ex-post for evaluation, but also ex-ante for future assessment, and near real-time for the reallocation of investment into interventions. The particular case we study is the effect of flood interventions upon mental health, which is a gap in current investment analyses. Natural events such as floods expose people to negative mental health disorders including anxiety, distress and post-traumatic stress disorder. Such outcomes can be mitigated or exacerbated not only by state funded interventions, but by individual and community skills and experience. Success is also dampened when vulnerable and previously exposed victims are affected. Current measures evaluate solely the effectiveness of interventions to reduce physical damage to people and assets. This paper contributes a design for a Bayesian network that exposes causal pathways and conditional probabilities between interventions and mental health outcomes as well as providing a tool that can readily indicate the level of investment needed in alternative interventions based on desired mental health outcomes. View Full-Text
Keywords: Bayesian network; cost-effectiveness intervention; evaluation; flood risk management; mental health impacts; QALY Bayesian network; cost-effectiveness intervention; evaluation; flood risk management; mental health impacts; QALY
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MDPI and ACS Style

Sedighi, T.; Varga, L.; Hosseinian-Far, A.; Daneshkhah, A. Economic Evaluation of Mental Health Effects of Flooding Using Bayesian Networks. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 7467. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18147467

AMA Style

Sedighi T, Varga L, Hosseinian-Far A, Daneshkhah A. Economic Evaluation of Mental Health Effects of Flooding Using Bayesian Networks. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(14):7467. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18147467

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sedighi, Tabassom, Liz Varga, Amin Hosseinian-Far, and Alireza Daneshkhah. 2021. "Economic Evaluation of Mental Health Effects of Flooding Using Bayesian Networks" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 14: 7467. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18147467

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