Predicting Spatial Patterns of Sindbis Virus (SINV) Infection Risk in Finland Using Vector, Host and Environmental Data

Uusitalo, Ruut; Siljander, Mika; Culverwell, C. Lorna; Hendrickx, Guy; Lindén, Andreas; Dub, Timothée; Aalto, Juha; Sane, Jussi; Marsboom, Cedric; Suvanto, Maija T.; Vajda, Andrea; Gregow, Hilppa; Korhonen, Essi M.; Huhtamo, Eili; Pellikka, Petri; Vapalahti, Olli

doi:10.3390/ijerph18137064

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Predicting Spatial Patterns of Sindbis Virus (SINV) Infection Risk in Finland Using Vector, Host and Environmental Data

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Olli Vapalahti

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Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland

Department of Virology, University of Helsinki, Haartmaninkatu 3, P.O. Box 21, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland

Department of Veterinary Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Agnes Sjöberginkatu 2, P.O. Box 66, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland

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Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW5 7BD, UK

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AVIA-GIS, Risschotlei 33, 2980 Zoersel, Belgium

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Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), P.O. Box 2, FI-00791 Helsinki, Finland

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Department of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, P.O. Box 30, FI-00271 Helsinki, Finland

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Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland

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Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 4, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland

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Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, FI-00014 Helsinki, Finland

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Virology and Immunology, Diagnostic Center, HUSLAB, Helsinki University Hospital, P.O. Box 400, FI-00029 Helsinki, Finland

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Academic Editor: Paul B. Tchounwou

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(13), 7064; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18137064

Received: 26 May 2021 / Revised: 27 June 2021 / Accepted: 28 June 2021 / Published: 1 July 2021

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Abstract

Pogosta disease is a mosquito-borne infection, caused by Sindbis virus (SINV), which causes epidemics of febrile rash and arthritis in Northern Europe and South Africa. Resident grouse and migratory birds play a significant role as amplifying hosts and various mosquito species, including Aedes cinereus, Culex pipiens, Cx. torrentium and Culiseta morsitans are documented vectors. As specific treatments are not available for SINV infections, and joint symptoms may persist, the public health burden is considerable in endemic areas. To predict the environmental suitability for SINV infections in Finland, we applied a suite of geospatial and statistical modeling techniques to disease occurrence data. Using an ensemble approach, we first produced environmental suitability maps for potential SINV vectors in Finland. These suitability maps were then combined with grouse densities and environmental data to identify the influential determinants for SINV infections and to predict the risk of Pogosta disease in Finnish municipalities. Our predictions suggest that both the environmental suitability for vectors and the high risk of Pogosta disease are focused in geographically restricted areas. This provides evidence that the presence of both SINV vector species and grouse densities can predict the occurrence of the disease. The results support material for public-health officials when determining area-specific recommendations and deliver information to health care personnel to raise awareness of the disease among physicians. View Full-Text

Keywords: Pogosta disease; vector-borne disease; Sindbis virus infection; mosquitoes; predictive mapping; disease modelling

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MDPI and ACS Style

Uusitalo, R.; Siljander, M.; Culverwell, C.L.; Hendrickx, G.; Lindén, A.; Dub, T.; Aalto, J.; Sane, J.; Marsboom, C.; Suvanto, M.T.; Vajda, A.; Gregow, H.; Korhonen, E.M.; Huhtamo, E.; Pellikka, P.; Vapalahti, O. Predicting Spatial Patterns of Sindbis Virus (SINV) Infection Risk in Finland Using Vector, Host and Environmental Data. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 7064. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18137064

AMA Style

Uusitalo R, Siljander M, Culverwell CL, Hendrickx G, Lindén A, Dub T, Aalto J, Sane J, Marsboom C, Suvanto MT, Vajda A, Gregow H, Korhonen EM, Huhtamo E, Pellikka P, Vapalahti O. Predicting Spatial Patterns of Sindbis Virus (SINV) Infection Risk in Finland Using Vector, Host and Environmental Data. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(13):7064. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18137064

Chicago/Turabian Style

Uusitalo, Ruut, Mika Siljander, C. Lorna Culverwell, Guy Hendrickx, Andreas Lindén, Timothée Dub, Juha Aalto, Jussi Sane, Cedric Marsboom, Maija T. Suvanto, Andrea Vajda, Hilppa Gregow, Essi M. Korhonen, Eili Huhtamo, Petri Pellikka, and Olli Vapalahti. 2021. "Predicting Spatial Patterns of Sindbis Virus (SINV) Infection Risk in Finland Using Vector, Host and Environmental Data" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 13: 7064. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18137064

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