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Sensors
  • Article
  • Open Access

4 August 2021

Deep Q-Learning and Preference Based Multi-Agent System for Sustainable Agricultural Market

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1
BISITE Research Group, University of Salamanca, Edificio Multiusos I+D+i, Calle Espejo 2, 37007 Salamanca, Spain
2
Air Institute, IoT Digital Innovation Hub, 37188 Salamanca, Spain
3
GECAD—Research Group on Intelligent Engineering and Computing for Advanced Innovation and Development, Institute of Engineering, Polytechnic of Porto, 4200-072 Porto, Portugal
4
Department of Electronics, Information and Communication, Faculty of Engineering, Osaka Institute of Technology, Osaka 535-8585, Japan
This article belongs to the Special Issue Edge Computing Architectures in Industry 4.0

Abstract

Yearly population growth will lead to a significant increase in agricultural production in the coming years. Twenty-first century agricultural producers will be facing the challenge of achieving food security and efficiency. This must be achieved while ensuring sustainable agricultural systems and overcoming the problems posed by climate change, depletion of water resources, and the potential for increased erosion and loss of productivity due to extreme weather conditions. Those environmental consequences will directly affect the price setting process. In view of the price oscillations and the lack of transparent information for buyers, a multi-agent system (MAS) is presented in this article. It supports the making of decisions in the purchase of sustainable agricultural products. The proposed MAS consists of a system that supports decision-making when choosing a supplier on the basis of certain preference-based parameters aimed at measuring the sustainability of a supplier and a deep Q-learning agent for agricultural future market price forecast. Therefore, different agri-environmental indicators (AEIs) have been considered, as well as the use of edge computing technologies to reduce costs of data transfer to the cloud. The presented MAS combines price setting optimizations and user preferences in regards to accessing, filtering, and integrating information. The agents filter and fuse information relevant to a user according to supplier attributes and a dynamic environment. The results presented in this paper allow a user to choose the supplier that best suits their preferences as well as to gain insight on agricultural future markets price oscillations through a deep Q-learning agent.

1. Introduction

Environmental factors such as the consequences of climate change [1] directly affect producers in the agricultural price setting process [2]. Agricultural trade is expected to grow at roughly half the rate of the past ten years [3]. Nevertheless, for most commodities, the share of total production that is being traded on global markets will remain relatively constant. Technology will also be more important in guaranteeing global food security, due to natural resource constraints in many countries [3]. In this regard, the concept of bioeconomy is gaining importance within the European Union objectives for the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals, and new indicators to measure the performance of bioeconomy sectors are emerging [4]. Globalization and the possibility of exporting and importing, as well as competing on a larger market, have led to a paradigm in which agricultural products are a financial indicator of the economy and take part in the prices of future markets. Agricultural commodity prices also tend to correlate with trends on energy markets, with oil prices experiencing unusual rises and falls in recent years [5]. Although agricultural inputs, production, storage, and transportation have long been influenced by energy prices, the rapid growth of the biofuels sector has created new types of relationships between agricultural and energy markets [5]. Moreover, in periods of financial crises, the volatility of the agricultural market has been very high [6,7]. Those fluctuations on commodity futures markets [8] contribute to the agricultural price oscillations for the farmers. However, not all agricultural products are affected by the same factors, the agricultural market is very diverse in terms of product attributes and particularities which are subject to external factors. For instance, corn futures prices may be determined by certain factors (such as location, transportation costs, contamination, warehouses, weather conditions, etc.) in comparison to wheat prices, that are less sensitive to weather. The changes in climate are something that has been more accentuated in recent years due to the greenhouse effect [9]. Analysis of greenhouse emissions as well as limited resource expenditures or energy consumption is becoming more widespread in precision agriculture (PA) [10] and smart agriculture (SA) [11].
PA is a term that has been coined in recent years. It refers to the concept of using new technologies to increase the yield and profitability of crops while reducing the resources needed for cultivation [12,13]. Thanks to technological advances, farms in developed and developing countries can benefit from the application of low-cost technologies. In this regard, the Internet of Things (IoT) and, more specifically, the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), is presented as a key enabling technology for implementing and monitoring resource management solutions in various scenarios in Industry 4.0, including smart agriculture environments [11]. The monitoring of all these values can be carried out with sensors, using new paradigms such as edge computing which enable monitoring while reducing the cost of data analysis in the cloud [14,15] increase the efficiency of agricultural processes [16]. The application of multi-agent systems to monitor agricultural processes is common, especially to achieve the efficient use of land in terms of investment and production [17], to manage resources [18], to increase the efficiency of irrigation systems [19,20], to optimize energy use [21], or predict the prices of agricultural products [22]. Moreover, in the field of selecting suppliers, Valluri and Croson [23] conducted a research towards best supply selection through a game theory approach with agents, in a scenario where reward and punishment were complicated by incomplete information. Over the last years, the number of processes oriented to sustainability objectives [24] and to developed tools [25] is growing. For instance, it has become more popular to integrate environmental, economic, and social attributes when selecting a supplier and sourcing process [26,27,28]. There are many differences in price setting in terms of requirements and the most important attributes for which each model can be built. Most models rely on historical data; however, others focus on the buyer, in which there are sales quotas, decision history polynomials, probabilities, and regressions of the potential prices that might be accepted [29]. In the literature, other approaches have been found, such as agent-based modeling with reinforcement learning conditioned by inventory [30,31]. When product pricing strategies are connected to estimations of price allocation and real-time reporting is taken into account, the relationship between data and price allocation parameters can be modeled dynamically, as demonstrated in the multi-agent supply chain [32]. In the context of a market, goods are exchanged and there are two main players. One of the basic rules in a price system is that goods can be exchanged according to the relative prices of the goods in question. Twenty years ago, Wellman and Wurman [33] already developed the first market-based multi-agent paradigm at a theoretical level.
The above examples demonstrate that multi-agent systems are applied in cases where a single agent is not capable of carrying out all the processes, as several agents and objectives interact in real-time [34]. Although currently there are different MAS focused on price forecast [35] or choice of suppliers [26,27,28], to this day, there is still no MAS in which a buyer can have information on the sustainability of a supplier or a product by monitoring the greenhouse emissions involved in production, the use of pesticides or the consumption of natural resources and having access to information on prices on the futures market. Considering that these needs cannot be fulfilled with a single agent, a MAS has been built [36]. The proposed system consists of MAS that helps choose a supplier through decision-making based on certain attributes. These attributes measure the sustainability of a supplier and also have prices of agricultural futures markets. The different attributes that have been considered are agri-environmental indicators (AEIs) [37]. These parameters consist of water consumption, greenhouse emissions, energy consumption, as well as the use of edge computing technologies that represent an improvement in terms of data transfer costs to the cloud. More concisely, the MAS consists of a preference-based multi-objective optimization problem that is open to real implementation, and therefore each user can fix the desired threshold and input requirements. Although not all products are comparable at the world level, the developed MAS is intended to give an indication of the most recent price developments. Futures markets are an important source of price information for farmers, but only a small percentage of farmers directly trade futures. The availability of high-frequency (intraday) data can help market participants make quicker decisions compared to low-frequency data, such as daily or monthly data. Having high-frequency data allows to better forecast the stock prices [38] so that farmers can sell according to trends in agricultural futures market real prices without having to wait to learn of the effects of selling products.
The rest of this paper is structured as follows. Section 2 consists of a revision of the state of the art of technologies involved in the system. Section 2.1 introduces the edge computing technologies as they play a significant role in monitoring and cost reduction in agriculture and identifying the most important trends in the application of those paradigms in smart farming scenarios. Then, in Section 2.2, state-of-the-art MAS are described, specifically those designated for agriculture scenarios, and finally, in Section 2.3 the deep Q-learning concept is introduced. Section 3 describes the MAS architecture and the data that have been used to conduct the experiment. Section 4 describes the experiments that have been conducted and the results. Finally, Section 5 discusses the solution, implementation fields, conclusions, and future work.

3. Case Study

This section describes the MAS that has been designed and how it has been conducted. This section has two main parts: first, the architecture of the MAS is defined in Section 3.1, and second, the different types of data used to perform the experiment are described in Section 3.2.

3.1. Architecture

The architecture that has been designed for this case study is represented in Figure 1. A MAS architecture has been used as a MAS can be defined as a collection of, possibly heterogeneous, computational entities, having their own problem-solving capabilities and which are able to interact in order to reach an overall goal. In the case of this investigation, each agent has a role [73]. As shown in Figure 1, there are three agents that communicate to provide the best option according to user preferences; it is a closely collaborating agent system in which every agent has its own specialized capabilities and knowledge, and no single agent has full knowledge of the world. The main functions include agricultural futures market information retrieval, deep Q-learning for lowest price setting, and preference based weight system for users’ preferences. The architecture designed for the MAS has been implemented with SPADE library [74].
Figure 1. Proposed multi-agent system.
In this case, to test the MAS, one agent collects information from the period described in Section 3.2. Then, the preference-based utility functions retrieve information from the historical database and also the preferences of the user in terms of weights for each attribute. In the case of this study, as the approach is preference-oriented and there are some weights according to each attribute, the Equation is represented as in Equation (5). For the values of the other attributes, the equivalence is shown in Equation (6).
( w 2 , , w n ) ( w 2 , , w n )
( y 1 , w ) < ( x 1 , w ) : ( z 1 , w ) >
Next, the deep Q-learning agent is responsible for modeling nonlinear trends of stock price time series, by predicting values and identifying the lowest prices.

3.2. Data

The data that have been chosen for testing the MAS can be modified and adapted to other products or markets. To implement the case study, information has been taken from a specific time-period, but as mentioned above the presented architecture is adaptable to any market. For the development of the model, two main datasets have been used; on the one hand real data from agricultural futures market and on the other hand a synthetic dataset for potential suppliers. The synthetic dataset has been built with different agri-environmental indicators (AEIs) [37] as main attributes for each supplier. AEIs track the integration of environmental concerns in the common agricultural policy (CAP) at EU, national and regional levels. The different attributes that have been considered are in Table 1 as follows:
Table 1. Supplier attributes.
In the case of the qualitative values, such as the edge computing attribute, the values were converted into the following values [ 0 , 1 ] . The other data that are considered in the study are the data from the agricultural futures market. To evaluate the model and to see how it works, information has been collected from the corn agricultural futures market, which has the CZ symbol. The period for which the data has been collected is from 2017 till 2019, because the 2020 and 2021 values are very irregular due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The attributes that are usually collected from the stock market are the ones defined in Table 2; nevertheless, the most commonly used inputs for next-day stock price prediction in the literature are the stock index opening or closing prices [75], and those are the values have been gathered for the case study, as represented in Figure 2.
Table 2. Stock market price variation. Source: Stock market for the symbol CZ.
Figure 2. CZ symbol price variation.

4. Results

The problem that the presented MAS overcomes is the difficulty of choosing a supplier according to sustainability parameters, as well as having transparent market information. The MAS presented helps potential buyers to identify a supplier according to their preferences in terms of sustainability as well as efficient use of resources. It also combines the selection of the supplier according to certain preferences, as well as seeing the actual price differences with the quotations of the products and being able to buy at the most optimal times. The designed MAS has two main results that are presented below. The first result is related to the supplier selection ranking, and the second one to price forecasting.
To achieve the first goal, different values have been assigned to the attributes, in terms of user preferences. To test the model, different cases have been tested with the following preferences as represented in Table 3.
Table 3. Case study combinations according to weights assigned [1,10] for the attributes of each supplier.
Then, a value between [0,10] is assigned to each supplier, where value is understood as the total sum of the weights of different attributes, assigned according to the attribute, and attribute importance. The outputs and the values of each of the parameters are represented in the Figure 3, Figure 4 and Figure 5, in which three dimensions are represented; the value according to the different weights for each of the parameters.
Figure 3. Case 1, according to the preferences described in Table 3.
Figure 4. Case 2, according to the preferences described in Table 3.
Figure 5. Case 3, according to the preferences described in Table 3.
As can be seen from Figure 3, Figure 4 and Figure 5, the different suppliers’ selection would vary according to the preferences set by the user. Once the different suppliers have been ranked, the results are sent to the Q-learning agent. The deep Q-learning agent’s goal is to maximize the total amount of reward it receives. In this case, the agent’s goal is to buy at the lowest price given a certain amount of money. Therefore, the user should fix an initial amount of money, which in this case has been 20,000. To build the agent, the different parameters have been fixed as shown in Table 4. Then, different hyperparameters have been changed to identify the best agent performance. The set hyperparameters are shown in Table 4, and then the other hyperparameters have been compared, as represented in Table 5.
Table 4. Fixed hyperparameters that have been used for the different case combinations in the deep Q-learning agent.
Table 5. Parameters used for each case comparison related to the different cases.
The Q-learning agent has one hidden layer with 256 neurons and the activation function is the rectified linear unit (ReLU) [76]. In the learning process, DL optimizes the weights, θ , to minimize the error estimated by the loss function. Therefore, the error or loss are measured as the difference between the predicted result and the actual result. The loss function for the different cases which are described in Table 5, is represented in Figure 6.
Figure 6. Loss function comparison on cases from Table 5 with different iterations.
As can be seen in Figure 6, cases 3 and 4 are the ones achieving the best results in all Figure 6a–c, while, for instance, case 1 has the worst results in Figure 6a but then has better results in Figure 6b. Moreover, in Figure 7 and Figure 8, all the marked values are placed in the real price variation line.
Figure 7. Lowest price identification with different iterations on the basis of the parameters described in Table 5 for each case.
Figure 8. Table 5 for three selected cases.
To view the comparisons of cases 1, 3, and 4 in more detail, the results are represented in Figure 7, where all the different cases are compared and represented according to the number of iterations in Figure 7a–c. Has been collected the different cases that were performing better according to the loss functions of Figure 6.
The conclusion that can be drawn from Figure 6 and Figure 7 is that the best options can be chosen by basing the decision-making on hyperparameters, either case 1, 2, or 3, so this case’s comparisons have been compared in Figure 8. As can be seen in Figure 8a, case 1 presents good results either in case of 1200 iterations and 2400. Therefore, the option that included in the MAS is the one with the above-mentioned hyperparameters. Thus, the buyer is at last presented with a potential list of suppliers and the lowest market prices at a given moment, which allows them to identify the most suitable suppliers for them as well as the best times to buy the products and also to identify the trends in specific products.

5. Discussion

The use of new technologies as well as the reduction of natural resource consumption or the generation of greenhouse effect impacts is becoming a more important element when choosing a supplier [77]. In the agricultural market, wholesalers purchase and store products in a well-controlled environment in the harvest season, and then recover selected quantities to sell in the market. The amount that is purchased in the harvest season, as well as the amount that is recovered in each selling period, have a strong impact on a wholesaler’s profit [78]. The proposed MAS allow to buy agricultural products sustainably thanks to the use of technologies such as edge computing, which reduces agricultural costs and help to make efficient use of resources [16] such as water [20,79] or energy optimization [21], as well as monitoring harmful emissions. According to the work in [78], an optimal selling policy can increase the expected profit. Therefore, being able to combine and obtain real-time price information allows adjusting purchase prices in anticipation of the problem of making strategic sales decisions [80]. In the current case, a paradigm in which each stakeholder (i.e., direct FMCG chains, wholesalers, etc.) acts individually is proposed. For a further evaluation of the model, a pool of suppliers will be contacted in order to include location as another interesting factor when determining prices and creating a reality between the requirements of potential buyers and suppliers.

Author Contributions

M.E.P.-P. and R.S.A. designed and developed the MAS architecture. M.E.P.-P., R.S.A., and O.G. reviewed the state-of-the-art and conducted the case study. G.M. and J.M.C. formalized the problem and reviewed the work. All the authors contributed to the redaction of the paper. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research has been supported by the project “INTELFIN: Artificial Intelligence for investment and value creation in SMEs through competitive analysis and business environment”, Reference: RTC-2017-6536-7, funded by the Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (Challenges-Collaboration 2017), the State Agency for Research (AEI) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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