Search Results (11)

This study presents a probabilistic seismic fragility assessment of a jointed rock slope by integrating field characterization, incremental dynamic analysis (IDA), and numerical modeling. Dominant joint sets are identified through field mapping, and key discontinuity parameters are estimated for the Barton–Bandis non-linear shear strength criterion. Dynamic simulations are performed using the distinct element method with the continuously yielding (C-Y) joint model to capture progressive shear degradation. Twenty real earthquake ground-motion records are scaled incrementally to perform IDA, with critical block displacement and cumulative joint slip adopted as engineering demand parameters (EDPs). A probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM) is developed to correlate peak ground acceleration (PGA) with EDPs. Kinematic analysis indicates that planar failure along joint set 1 is the most likely failure mechanism (90% probability), followed by wedge failure along the intersection of joint sets 1 and 2 (52%). Fragility curves are derived for three displacement-based damage states: minor (1 cm), moderate (5 cm), and severe (15 cm). The results demonstrate that seismic deformation is strongly controlled by discontinuity geometry and progressive joint slip, with the slope exceeding the severe damage state at PGA levels as low as 0.4 g, indicating high seismic vulnerability. This highlights the importance of integrating field characterization with dynamic numerical modeling for reliable seismic stability assessment of such discontinuous rock mass. Future work should incorporate larger datasets, in situ testing, and 3D modeling to enhance assessment reliability. Full article

This study re-examines two geologically and geotechnically similar geosynthetic-reinforced soil walls with modular block facings (GRS-MBs) that exhibited markedly different seismic performances during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (M_L = 7.3). Integrating a multi-wedge failure mechanism that captures soil–facing–reinforcement interactions with a nonlinear hyperbolic soil model representing shear stress–displacement behavior along the slip surface, the Force–equilibrium-based Finite Displacement Method (FFDM) provides consistent and robust displacement evaluations over a wide range of input seismic inertial forces. A systematic sensitivity investigation confirms that the FFDM framework responds to parameter variations in a physically meaningful manner, and that displacement predictions remain stable with respect to reasonable uncertainties in soil, reinforcement, and facing properties. The analysis clarifies why two similar GRS-MBs responded so differently during strong shaking and demonstrates the broader applicability of FFDM for displacement-based seismic assessment, including under shaking levels (e.g., k_h ≈ 0.3) that would drive conventional limit–equilibrium calculations to F_s < 1.0, a physically impossible state requiring shear resistance greater than the soil’s ultimate strength. A comparative evaluation of seismic displacement predictions using the Newmark method and FFDM shows that FFDM successfully generates displacement-based seismic resisting curves and reproduces field-observed displacements. In contrast, the Newmark method yields order-of-magnitude variability in predicted movements and may be unsuitable for displacement-sensitive engineered slopes where deformations on the order of several 10⁻³–10⁻² m are practically significant. For interaction-rich GRS-MBs with high values of k_hc, beyond the predictive capability of Newmark’s equation, FFDM offers a practical and physically grounded tool for seismic displacement assessment of reinforced soil structures. Full article

The spatiotemporal distribution of major earthquakes in the study area (1600–2024) is analyzed to tentatively recognize the possible connections with the short-term (from decades to centuries) evolution of the ongoing tectonic processes. This study suggests that during the period considered, seismic activity has been predominantly related to the shortening processes accommodating the convergence of northwestern Nubia with the Iberian and Moroccan plates that mainly involve the westward escape of the Alboran wedge and the NNE-ward escape of the Iberian block. This deformation pattern is inferred from the seismic activity in the North Atlantic domain, the Rif and Betics belts, the western Iberian fault system (onshore and offshore), the Transmoroccan fault system and the Pyrenean thrust front. Seismic activity in the Tell is mainly driven by the Nubia–Eurasia convergence, even though it can be also influenced by the major westward displacements of the Anatolian–Aegean–Adriatic–Pelagian system. This hypothesis could explain the marked increase in seismic activity that occurred in the Tell in the last decades, when that zone may have been affected by the perturbation triggered by the large post-1939 westward displacement of Anatolia. The pieces of evidence and the arguments reported in this study might provide insights into the possible spatial distribution of major earthquakes in the next decades. Full article

It is hypothesized that the present tectonic setting of the Anatolian, Aegean and Balkan regions has been deeply influenced by the different deformation styles of the inner and outer belts which constituted the Oligocene Tethyan system. Stressed by the Arabian indenter, this buoyant structure has undergone a westward escape and strong bending. The available evidence suggests that in the Plio–Pleistocene time frame, the inner metamorphic core mainly deformed without undergoing major fragmentations, whereas the orogenic belts which flanked that core (Pontides, Balkanides, Dinarides and Hellenides) behaved as mainly brittle structures, undergoing marked fractures and fragmentations. This view can plausibly explain the formation of the Eastern (Crete–Rhodes) and Western (Peloponnesus) Hellenic Arcs, the peculiar time-space features of the Cretan basins, the development of the Cyprus Arc, the North Aegean strike-slip fault system, the southward escapes of the Antalya and Peloponnesus wedges and the complex tectonic setting in the Balkan zone. These tectonic processes have mostly developed since the late Late Miocene, in response to the collision of the Tethyan belt with the Adriatic continental domain, which accelerated the southward bending of the Anatolian and Aegean sectors, at the expense of the Levantine and Ionian oceanic domains. The proposed interpretation may help us to understand the connection between the ongoing tectonic processes and the spatio-temporal distribution of major earthquakes, increasing the chances of estimating the long-term seismic hazard in the study area. In particular, it is suggested that seismic activity in the Serbo–Macedonian zone may be favored by the post-seismic relaxation that develops after seismic crises in the Epirus thrust front and inhibited/delayed by the activations of the North Anatolian fault system. Full article

Slope failures along road cuts and highways, occurring due to heavy rainfalls or earthquakes, pose significant threats to people, vehicles, and emergency plans. In the present study, a methodology to assess the stability of rock slopes at a regional scale is proposed using a kinematic analysis and a probabilistic limit equilibrium analysis for plane sliding and wedge failure modes. The workflow adopted is described through its implementation along the main road network of the island of Thasos, located in northern Greece. On-site investigations and measurements along the island’s road network formed the basis of the present study. The results of the kinematic analysis showed that the joint sets, which were identified during the on-site investigations, formed critical intersections that could lead to wedge and plane sliding failures. The on-site measurements and the results of the kinematic analysis were utilized to perform limit equilibrium back-analyses at sites of identified failures due to the water pressure effects to probabilistically estimate the material strength properties of the joints. Subsequently, numerous limit equilibrium analyses were executed within a Monte Carlo simulation framework to produce representative fragility curves of rock slopes against plane sliding and wedge failures along the main road network, due to earthquake loading and water pressures. Full article

Accretionary wedge earthquakes usually occur in the overriding crust close to the trench or above the cold nose of the mantle wedge. However, the mechanism and temperature properties related to the slab dip angle remain poorly understood. Based on 3D thermal models to estimate the subduction wedge plate temperature and structure, we investigate the distribution of wedge earthquakes in Alaska, which has a varying slab dip angle along the trench. The horizontal distance of wedge-earthquake hypocenters significantly increases from the Aleutian Islands to south–central Alaska due to a transition from steep subduction to flat subduction. Slab dehydration inside the subducted Pacific plate indicates a simultaneous change in the distances between the intraslab metamorphic fronts and the Alaskan Trench at various depths, which is associated with the flattening of the Pacific plate eastward along the strike. The across-arc width of the wedge-earthquake source zone is consistent with the across-arc width of the surface high topography above the fully dehydrated megathrust, and the fluid upwelling spontaneously influences wedge seismotectonics and orogenesis. Full article

In this paper, we propose a method for the analysis of tectonic movement and crustal deformation by using GNSS baseline length change rates or baseline linear strain rates. The method is applied to daily coordinate solutions of continuous GNSS stations of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC). The results show that: (a) The baseline linear strain rates are uneven in space, which is prominent in the Tianshan, Sichuan-Yunnan, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and Yanjing areas, with a maximum value of 1 × 10⁻⁷ a⁻¹, and about two orders smaller in the South China block, the Northeast block, and the inner area of the Tarim basin, where the average baseline linear strain rates are 1.471 × 10⁻⁹ a⁻¹, 2.242 × 10⁻⁹ a⁻¹, and 3.056 × 10⁻⁹ a⁻¹, respectively; (b) Active crustal deformation and strong earthquakes in the Xinjiang area are mainly located in the north and south sides of the Tianshan block; the compression deformations both inside the Tarim block and in the southern Tianshan fault zone are all increasing from east to west, and the Tarim block is not a completely “rigid block”, with the shrinkage rate in the west part at about 1~2 mm/a; (c) The principal directions of crustal deformation in the Xinjiang, Tibet, and Sichuan-Yunnan regions are generally in the north—south compression and east—west extension, indicating that the collision and wedging between the Indian and Eurasian plates are still the main source of tectonic movements in mainland China. Full article

Here, we investigated the crustal structure beneath eastern Anatolia, an area of high seismicity and critical significance for earthquake hazards in Turkey. The study was based on the local tomography method using data from earthquakes that occurred in the study area provided by the Turkiye Cumhuriyeti Ministry of Interior Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate Earthquake Department Directorate of Turkey. The dataset used for tomography included the travel times of 54,713 P-waves and 38,863 S-waves from 6355 seismic events. The distributions of the resulting seismic velocities (Vp, Vs) down to a depth of 60 km demonstrate significant anomalies associated with the major geologic and tectonic features of the region. The Arabian plate was revealed as a high-velocity anomaly, and the low-velocity patterns north of the Bitlis suture are mostly associated with eastern Anatolia. The upper crust of eastern Anatolia was associated with a ~10 km thick high-velocity anomaly; the lower crust is revealed as a wedge-shaped low-velocity anomaly. This kind of seismic structure under eastern Anatolia corresponded to the hypothesized existence of a lithospheric window beneath this collision zone, through which hot material of the asthenosphere rises. Thus, the presented results help to clarify the deep structure under eastern Anatolia. Full article

The metastable olivine (Ol) wedge hypothesis assumes that Ol may exist as a metastable phase at the P conditions of the mantle transition zone (MTZ) and even deeper regions due to inhibition of the phase transitions from Ol to wadsleyite and ringwoodite caused by low T in the cold subducting slabs. It is commonly invoked to account for the stagnation of the descending slabs, deep focus earthquakes and other geophysical observations. In the last few years, several new structures with the forsterite (Fo) composition, namely Fo-II, Fo-III and Fo-IV, were either experimentally observed or theoretically predicted at very low T conditions. They may have important impacts on the metastable Ol wedge hypothesis. By performing first-principles calculations, we have systematically examined their crystallographic characteristics, elastic properties and dynamic stabilities from 0 to 100 GPa, and identified the Fo-III phase as the most likely metastable phase to occur in the cold slabs subducted to the depths equivalent to the lower part of the MTZ (below the ~600 km depth) and even the lower mantle. As disclosed by our theoretical simulations, the Fo-III phase is a post-spinel phase (space group Cmc2₁), has all cations in sixfold coordination at P < ~60 GPa, and shows dynamic stability for the entire P range from 0 to 100 GPa. Further, our static enthalpy calculations have suggested that the Fo-III phase may directly form from the Fo material at ~22 GPa (0 K), and our high-T phase relation calculations have located the Fo/Fo-III phase boundary at ~23.75 GPa (room T) with an averaged Clapeyron slope of ~−1.1 MPa/K for the T interval from 300 to 1800 K. All these calculated phase transition pressures are likely overestimated by ~3 GPa because of the GGA method used in this study. The discrepancy between our predicted phase transition P and the experimental observation (~58 GPa at 300 K) can be explained by slow reaction rate and short experimental durations. Taking into account the P-T conditions in the cold downgoing slabs, we therefore propose that the Fo-III phase, rather than the Ol, highly possibly occurs as the metastable phase in the cold slabs subducted to the P conditions of the lower part of the MTZ (below the ~600 km depth) and even the lower mantle. In addition, our calculation has showed that the Fo-III phase has higher bulk seismic velocity, and thus may make important contributions to the high seismic speeds observed in the cold slabs stagnated near the upper mantle-lower mantle boundary. Future seismic studies may discriminate the effects of the Fo-III phase and the low T. Surprisingly, the Fo-III phase will speed up, rather than slow down, the subducting process of the cold slabs, if it metastably forms from the Ol. In general, the Fo-III phase has a higher density than the warm MTZ, but has a lower density than the lower mantle, as suggested by our calculations. Full article

The PARSIFAL (Probabilistic Approach to pRovide Scenarios of earthquake-Induced slope FAiLures) approach was applied in the basin of Alcoy (Alicante, South Spain), to provide a comprehensive scenario of earthquake-induced landslides. The basin of Alcoy is well known for several historical landslides, mainly represented by earth-slides, that involve urban settlement as well as infrastructures (i.e., roads, bridges). The PARSIFAL overcomes several limits existing in other approaches, allowing the concomitant analyses of: (i) first-time landslides (due to both rock-slope failures and shallow earth-slides) and reactivations of existing landslides; (ii) slope stability analyses of different failure mechanisms; (iii) comprehensive mapping of earthquake-induced landslide scenarios in terms of exceedance probability of critical threshold values of co-seismic displacements. Geotechnical data were used to constrain the slope stability analysis, while specific field surveys were carried out to measure jointing and strength conditions of rock masses and to inventory already existing landslides. GIS-based susceptibility analyses were performed to assess the proneness to shallow earth-slides as well as to verify kinematic compatibility to planar or wedge rock-slides and to topples. The experienced application of PARSIFAL to the Alcoy basin: (i) confirms the suitability of the approach at a municipality scale, (ii) outputs the main role of saturation in conditioning slope instabilities in this case study, (iii) demonstrates the reliability of the obtained results respect to the historical data. Full article

Describing the moment rotation (M/θ) behavior of reinforced concrete (RC) hinges is essential in predicting the behavior of RC structures under severe loadings, such as under cyclic earthquake motions and blast loading. The behavior of RC hinges is defined by localized slip or partial interaction (PI) behaviors in both the tension and compression region. In the tension region, slip between the reinforcement and the concrete defines crack spacing, crack opening and closing, and tension stiffening. While in the compression region, slip along concrete to concrete interfaces defines the formation and failure of concrete softening wedges. Being strain-based, commonly-applied analysis techniques, such as the moment curvature approach, cannot directly simulate these PI behaviors because they are localized and displacement based. Therefore, strain-based approaches must resort to empirical factors to define behaviors, such as tension stiffening and concrete softening hinge lengths. In this paper, a displacement-based segmental moment rotation approach, which directly simulates the partial interaction behaviors in both compression and tension, is developed for predicting the M/θ response of an RC beam hinge under cyclic loading. Significantly, in order to develop the segmental approach, a partial interaction model to predict the tension stiffening load slip relationship between the reinforcement and the concrete is developed. Full article