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Open AccessArticle

Probabilistic Approach to Provide Scenarios of Earthquake-Induced Slope Failures (PARSIFAL) Applied to the Alcoy Basin (South Spain)

Dpt. Scienze della Terra and Centro di Ricerca per i Rischi Geologici—CERI, “Sapienza” University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro, 5, 00185 Roma, Italy
Dpt. Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Alicante, Carretera San Vicente del Raspeig s/n, 03690 San Vicente del Raspeig, Spain
Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, L’energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile (ENEA), Via Enrico Fermi, 45, 00044 Frascati, Roma, Italy
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Geosciences 2018, 8(2), 57;
Received: 30 November 2017 / Revised: 29 January 2018 / Accepted: 31 January 2018 / Published: 6 February 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural Hazards and Risks Assessment)
The PARSIFAL (Probabilistic Approach to pRovide Scenarios of earthquake-Induced slope FAiLures) approach was applied in the basin of Alcoy (Alicante, South Spain), to provide a comprehensive scenario of earthquake-induced landslides. The basin of Alcoy is well known for several historical landslides, mainly represented by earth-slides, that involve urban settlement as well as infrastructures (i.e., roads, bridges). The PARSIFAL overcomes several limits existing in other approaches, allowing the concomitant analyses of: (i) first-time landslides (due to both rock-slope failures and shallow earth-slides) and reactivations of existing landslides; (ii) slope stability analyses of different failure mechanisms; (iii) comprehensive mapping of earthquake-induced landslide scenarios in terms of exceedance probability of critical threshold values of co-seismic displacements. Geotechnical data were used to constrain the slope stability analysis, while specific field surveys were carried out to measure jointing and strength conditions of rock masses and to inventory already existing landslides. GIS-based susceptibility analyses were performed to assess the proneness to shallow earth-slides as well as to verify kinematic compatibility to planar or wedge rock-slides and to topples. The experienced application of PARSIFAL to the Alcoy basin: (i) confirms the suitability of the approach at a municipality scale, (ii) outputs the main role of saturation in conditioning slope instabilities in this case study, (iii) demonstrates the reliability of the obtained results respect to the historical data. View Full-Text
Keywords: earthquake-induced landslide; landslide hazard; analysis of scenario; Spain earthquake-induced landslide; landslide hazard; analysis of scenario; Spain
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Martino, S.; Battaglia, S.; Delgado, J.; Esposito, C.; Martini, G.; Missori, C. Probabilistic Approach to Provide Scenarios of Earthquake-Induced Slope Failures (PARSIFAL) Applied to the Alcoy Basin (South Spain). Geosciences 2018, 8, 57.

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