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Keywords = weather-based traffic prediction

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12 pages, 874 KB  
Proceeding Paper
Smart Pavement Systems with Embedded Sensors for Traffic and Environmental Monitoring
by Wai Yie Leong
Eng. Proc. 2025, 120(1), 12; https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2025120012 - 29 Jan 2026
Viewed by 86
Abstract
The evolution of next-generation urban infrastructure necessitates the deployment of intelligent pavement systems capable of real-time data acquisition, adaptive response, and predictive analytics. This article presents the design, implementation, and performance evaluation of the smart pavement system incorporating multimodal embedded sensors for traffic [...] Read more.
The evolution of next-generation urban infrastructure necessitates the deployment of intelligent pavement systems capable of real-time data acquisition, adaptive response, and predictive analytics. This article presents the design, implementation, and performance evaluation of the smart pavement system incorporating multimodal embedded sensors for traffic density analysis, structural health monitoring, and environmental surveillance. SPS integrates piezoelectric transducers, micro-electro-mechanical system accelerometers, inductive loop coils, fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensors, and capacitive moisture and temperature sensors within the asphalt and sub-base layers, forming a distributed sensor network that interfaces with an edge-AI-enabled data acquisition and control module. Each sensor node performs localized pre-processing using low-power microcontrollers and transmits spatiotemporal data to a centralized IoT gateway over an adaptive mesh topology via long-range wide-area network or 5G-Vehicle-to-Everything protocols. Data fusion algorithms employing Kalman filters, sensor drift compensation models, and deep convolutional recurrent neural networks enable accurate classification of vehicular loads, traffic, and anomaly detection. Additionally, the system supports real-time air pollutant detection (e.g., NO2, CO, and PM2.5) using embedded electrochemical and optical gas sensors linked to mobile roadside units. Field deployments on a 1.2 km highway testbed demonstrate the system’s capability to achieve 95.7% classification accuracy for vehicle type recognition, ±1.5 mm resolution in rut depth measurement, and ±0.2 °C thermal sensitivity across dynamic weather conditions. Predictive analytics driven by long short-term memory networks yield a 21.4% improvement in maintenance planning accuracy, significantly reducing unplanned downtimes and repair costs. The architecture also supports vehicle-to-infrastructure feedback loops for adaptive traffic signal control and incident response. The proposed SPS architecture demonstrates a scalable and resilient framework for cyber-physical infrastructure, paving the way for smart cities that are responsive, efficient, and sustainable. Full article
(This article belongs to the Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Knowledge Innovation and Invention)
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18 pages, 15384 KB  
Article
Electric Vehicle Route Optimization: An End-to-End Learning Approach with Multi-Objective Planning
by Rodrigo Gutiérrez-Moreno, Ángel Llamazares, Pedro Revenga, Manuel Ocaña and Miguel Antunes-García
World Electr. Veh. J. 2026, 17(1), 41; https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj17010041 - 13 Jan 2026
Viewed by 220
Abstract
Traditional routing algorithms optimizing for distance or travel time are inadequate for electric vehicles (EVs), which require energy-aware planning considering battery constraints and charging infrastructure. This work presents an energy-optimal routing system for EVs that integrates personalized consumption modeling with real-time environmental data. [...] Read more.
Traditional routing algorithms optimizing for distance or travel time are inadequate for electric vehicles (EVs), which require energy-aware planning considering battery constraints and charging infrastructure. This work presents an energy-optimal routing system for EVs that integrates personalized consumption modeling with real-time environmental data. The system employs a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to predict State-of-Charge (SoC) consumption from real-world driving data, learning directly from spatiotemporal features including velocity, temperature, road inclination, and traveled distance. Unlike physics-based models requiring difficult-to-obtain parameters, this approach captures nonlinear dependencies and temporal patterns in energy consumption. The routing framework integrates static map data, dynamic traffic conditions, weather information, and charging station locations into a weighted graph representation. Edge costs reflect predicted SoC drops, while node penalties account for traffic congestion and charging opportunities. An enhanced A* algorithm finds optimal routes minimizing energy consumption. Experimental validation on a Nissan Leaf shows that the proposed end-to-end SoC estimator significantly outperforms traditional approaches. The model achieves an RMSE of 36.83 and an R2 of 0.9374, corresponding to a 59.91% reduction in error compared to physics-based formulas. Real-world testing on various routes further confirms its accuracy, with a Mean Absolute Error in the total route SoC estimation of 2%, improving upon the 3.5% observed for commercial solutions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Propulsion Systems and Components)
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19 pages, 784 KB  
Article
For Autonomous Driving: The LGAT Model—A Method for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
by Guoyu Qi, Jiaqi Kang, Yufeng Sun and Guangle Song
Electronics 2026, 15(2), 305; https://doi.org/10.3390/electronics15020305 - 9 Jan 2026
Viewed by 247
Abstract
Time series forecasting plays a critical role in a wide range of applications, including energy load forecasting, traffic flow management, weather prediction, and vision-based state prediction for autonomous driving. In the context of autonomous vehicles, accurate forecasting of sequential visual information—such as traffic [...] Read more.
Time series forecasting plays a critical role in a wide range of applications, including energy load forecasting, traffic flow management, weather prediction, and vision-based state prediction for autonomous driving. In the context of autonomous vehicles, accurate forecasting of sequential visual information—such as traffic participant trajectories, road condition variations, and obstacle motion trends perceived by onboard sensors—is a fundamental prerequisite for safe and reliable decision-making. To overcome the limitations of existing long-term time series forecasting models, particularly their insufficient capability in temporal feature extraction, this paper proposes a Local–Global Adaptive Transformer (LGAT) for long-term time series forecasting. The proposed model incorporates three key innovations: (1) a period-aware positional encoding mechanism that embeds intrinsic periodic patterns of time series into positional representations and adaptively adjusts encoding parameters according to data-specific periodicity; (2) a temporal feature enhancement module based on gated convolution, which effectively suppresses noise in raw inputs while emphasizing discriminative temporal characteristics; and (3) a local–global adaptive attention layer that combines sliding window–based local attention with importance-aware global attention to simultaneously capture short-term local variations and long-term global dependencies. Experimental results on five public benchmark datasets demonstrate that LGAT consistently outperforms most baseline models, indicating its strong potential for time series forecasting applications in autonomous driving scenarios. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Deep Perception in Autonomous Driving, 2nd Edition)
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25 pages, 6071 KB  
Article
Prediction of Rear-End Collision Risk in Urban Expressway Diverging Areas Under Rainy Weather Conditions
by Xiaomei Xia, Tianyi Zhang, Jiao Yao, Pujie Wang, Chenke Zhu and Chenqiang Zhu
Systems 2026, 14(1), 56; https://doi.org/10.3390/systems14010056 - 6 Jan 2026
Viewed by 248
Abstract
To mitigate the frequent occurrence of rear-end collisions on urban expressways under rainy weather conditions, firstly, accident risk levels were classified using traffic conflict indicators. Secondly, three machine learning models were employed to predict the accident severity across different scenarios. Furthermore, key influencing [...] Read more.
To mitigate the frequent occurrence of rear-end collisions on urban expressways under rainy weather conditions, firstly, accident risk levels were classified using traffic conflict indicators. Secondly, three machine learning models were employed to predict the accident severity across different scenarios. Furthermore, key influencing factors of rear-end collisions were identified and analyzed based on SHAP values. Case studies were conducted by simulating vehicle trajectory data under light, moderate, and heavy rain scenarios, using an open urban expressway dataset and car-following parameters for rainy conditions. Next, the Modified Time-to-Collision (MTTC) metric was calculated. Risk thresholds for low-, medium-, and high-risk levels were established for each rainfall category using percentile-based cumulative distribution analysis. Finally, real-time risk prediction under the three rainfall scenarios was conducted using XGBoost, LightGBM, and Random Forest models. The model performances were evaluated in terms of accuracy, recall, precision, and AUC. Overall, the study finds that the LightGBM model achieves the highest predictive capability, with AUC values exceeding 0.78 under all weather conditions. Moreover, the study concludes that factors ranked by SHAP values reveal that the minimum distance has the greatest influence in light rain scenarios. As rainfall intensity increases, the influences of minimum headway time and average vehicle speed are found to grow, highlighting an interaction pattern characterized by “speed-distance-flow” coupling. Full article
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22 pages, 1366 KB  
Systematic Review
Inspection and Evaluation of Urban Pavement Deterioration Using Drones: Review of Methods, Challenges, and Future Trends
by Pablo Julián López-González, David Reyes-González, Oscar Moreno-Vázquez, Rodrigo Vivar-Ocampo, Sergio Aurelio Zamora-Castro, Lorena del Carmen Santos Cortés, Brenda Suemy Trujillo-García and Joaquín Sangabriel-Lomelí
Future Transp. 2026, 6(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/futuretransp6010010 - 4 Jan 2026
Viewed by 445
Abstract
The rapid growth of urban areas has increased the need for more efficient methods of pavement inspection and maintenance. However, conventional techniques remain slow, labor-intensive, and limited in spatial coverage, and their performance is strongly affected by traffic, weather conditions, and operational constraints. [...] Read more.
The rapid growth of urban areas has increased the need for more efficient methods of pavement inspection and maintenance. However, conventional techniques remain slow, labor-intensive, and limited in spatial coverage, and their performance is strongly affected by traffic, weather conditions, and operational constraints. In response to these challenges, it is essential to synthesize the technological advances that improve inspection efficiency, coverage, and data quality compared to traditional approaches. Herein, we present a systematic review of the state of the art on the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for monitoring and assessing pavement deterioration, highlighting as a key contribution the comparative integration of sensors (photogrammetry, LiDAR, and thermography) with recent automatic damage-detection algorithms. A structured review methodology was applied, including the search, selection, and critical analysis of specialized studies on UAV-based pavement evaluation. The results indicate that UAV photogrammetry can achieve sub-centimeter accuracy (<1 cm) in 3D reconstructions, LiDAR systems can improve deformation detection by up to 35%, and AI-based algorithms can increase crack-identification accuracy by 10% to 25% compared with manual methods. Finally, the synthesis shows that multi-sensor integration and digital twins offer strong potential to enhance predictive maintenance and support the transition towards smarter and more sustainable urban infrastructure management strategies. Full article
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27 pages, 1033 KB  
Article
A Deep Dive into AI-Based Network Traffic Prediction Using Heterogeneous Real Datasets
by Jungyun Kim and Intae Ryoo
Appl. Sci. 2026, 16(1), 367; https://doi.org/10.3390/app16010367 - 29 Dec 2025
Viewed by 364
Abstract
Recent studies have highlighted that network traffic may be influenced by various external factors such as weather conditions and user behavior, making it challenging to achieve precise predictions using only historical traffic data. To address this limitation, this study proposes a multivariate time [...] Read more.
Recent studies have highlighted that network traffic may be influenced by various external factors such as weather conditions and user behavior, making it challenging to achieve precise predictions using only historical traffic data. To address this limitation, this study proposes a multivariate time series prediction model that incorporates environmental variables, such as meteorological information, to improve the accuracy of network traffic forecasting. Five deep learning models—RNN, GRU, LSTM, CNN, and Transformer—were evaluated under the same experimental conditions. Performance was assessed using metrics such as MSE, RMSE, MAE, R2, and MAPE. In addition, ANOVA and Tukey HSD post hoc tests were conducted to analyze the statistical significance of performance differences between models, and the contribution of each environmental variable was evaluated using the Permutation Importance method, which demonstrated a significant impact on model performance. Experimental results indicated that the GRU and RNN models achieved the best overall prediction accuracy. Additionally, some weather variables, such as temperature and sunlight duration, positively impacted performance improvement. This study empirically demonstrates the generalization capabilities of simple recurrent architectures and the effectiveness of integrating environmental variables. Furthermore, it suggests future research directions, including cross-domain model adaptation and the application of large language model (LLM)-based time series forecasting frameworks. Full article
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27 pages, 26736 KB  
Article
A Lightweight Traffic Sign Small Target Detection Network Suitable for Complex Environments
by Zonghong Feng, Liangchang Li, Kai Xu and Yong Wang
Appl. Sci. 2026, 16(1), 326; https://doi.org/10.3390/app16010326 - 28 Dec 2025
Viewed by 373
Abstract
With the increasing frequency of traffic safety issues and the rapid development of autonomous driving technology, traffic sign detection is highly susceptible to adverse weather conditions such as changes in light intensity, fog, rain, snow, and partial occlusion, which places higher demands on [...] Read more.
With the increasing frequency of traffic safety issues and the rapid development of autonomous driving technology, traffic sign detection is highly susceptible to adverse weather conditions such as changes in light intensity, fog, rain, snow, and partial occlusion, which places higher demands on the accurate recognition of traffic signs. This paper proposes an improved DAYOLO model based on YOLOv8n, aiming to balance detection accuracy and model complexity. First, the Bottleneck in the C2f module of the YOLOv8n backbone network is replaced with Bottleneck DAttention. Introducing DAttention allows for more effective feature extraction, thereby improving model performance. Second, an ultra-lightweight and efficient upsampler, Dysample, is introduced into the neck network to further improve performance and reduce computational overhead. Finally, a Task-Aligned Dynamic Detection Head (TADDH) is introduced. TADDH enhances task interaction through a dynamic mechanism and utilizes shared convolutional modules to reduce parameters and improve efficiency. Simultaneously, an additional Layer2 detection head is added to the model to strengthen the extraction and fusion of features at different scales, thereby improving the detection accuracy of small traffic signs. Furthermore, replacing SlideLoss with NWDLoss can better handle prediction results with more complex distributions and more accurately measure the distance between predicted and ground truth boxes in the feature space during object detection. Experimental results show that DAYOLO achieves 97.2% mAP on the SDCCVP dataset, which is 5.3 higher than the baseline model YOLOv8n; the frame rate reaches 120, which is 37.8% higher than YOLOv8; and the number of parameters is reduced by 6.2%, outperforming models such as YOLOv3, YOLOv5, YOLOv6, and YOLOv7. In addition, DAYOLO achieves 80.8 mAP on the TT100K dataset, which is 9.2% higher than the baseline model YOLOv8n. The proposed method achieves a balance between model size and detection accuracy, meets the needs of traffic sign detection, and provides new ideas and methods for future research in the field of traffic sign detection. Full article
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36 pages, 5490 KB  
Article
Urban Medical Emergency Logistics Drone Base Station Location Selection
by Hongbin Zhang, Liang Zou, Yongxia Yang, Jiancong Ma, Jingguang Xiao and Peiqun Lin
Drones 2026, 10(1), 17; https://doi.org/10.3390/drones10010017 - 28 Dec 2025
Viewed by 564
Abstract
In densely populated and traffic-congested major cities, medical emergency rescue incidents occur frequently, making the use of drones for emergency medical supplies delivery a new emergency distribution method. However, establishing drone transportation networks in urban areas requires balancing spatiotemporal fluctuations in emergency needs, [...] Read more.
In densely populated and traffic-congested major cities, medical emergency rescue incidents occur frequently, making the use of drones for emergency medical supplies delivery a new emergency distribution method. However, establishing drone transportation networks in urban areas requires balancing spatiotemporal fluctuations in emergency needs, meeting hospitals’ mandatory constraints on response time, and addressing factors like airspace restrictions and weather impacts. By analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of medical emergency logistics in large cities, this study constructs a drone base station location optimization model integrating dynamic and static factors. The model combines multi-source data including emergency needs, geographic information, and airspace limitations. It employs kernel density estimation to identify hotspot areas, uses DBSCAN clustering to detect long-term stable demand hotspots, and applies LSTM methods to predict short-term and sudden demand fluctuations. The model optimizes coverage rate, response time, and cost budget control for drone transportation networks through a multi-objective genetic algorithm. Using Guangzhou as a case study, the results demonstrate that through “dynamic-static” collaborative deployment and multi-model drone coordination, the network achieves 96.18% demand coverage with an average response time of 673.38 s, significantly outperforming traditional vehicle transportation. Sensitivity analysis and robustness testing further validate the model’s effectiveness in handling demand fluctuations, weather changes, and airspace restrictions. This research provides theoretical support and decision-making basis for scientific planning of urban medical emergency drone transportation networks, offering practical significance for enhancing urban emergency rescue capabilities. Full article
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19 pages, 3961 KB  
Article
Risk-Aware Multi-Horizon Forecasting of Airport Departure Flow Using a Patch-Based Time-Series Transformer
by Xiangzhi Zhou, Shanmei Li and Siqing Li
Aerospace 2025, 12(12), 1107; https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace12121107 - 15 Dec 2025
Viewed by 298
Abstract
Airport traffic flow prediction is a basic requirement for air traffic management. Building an effective airport traffic flow prediction model helps reveal how traffic demand evolves over time and supports short-term planning. At the same time, a large amount of air traffic data [...] Read more.
Airport traffic flow prediction is a basic requirement for air traffic management. Building an effective airport traffic flow prediction model helps reveal how traffic demand evolves over time and supports short-term planning. At the same time, a large amount of air traffic data supports using deep learning to learn traffic patterns with stable and accurate performance. In practice, airports need forecasts at short time intervals and need to know the departure flow and its uncertainty 1–2 h in advance. To meet this need, we treat airport departure flow prediction as a multi-step probabilistic forecasting problem on a multi-airport dataset that is organized by airport and time. Scheduled departure counts, recent taxi-out time statistics (P50/P90 over 30- and 60-minute windows), and calendar variables are put on the same time scale and standardized separately for each airport. Based on these data, we propose an end-to-end multi-step forecasting method built on PatchTST. The method uses patch partitioning and a Transformer encoder to extract temporal features from the past 48 h of multivariate history and directly outputs the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile forecasts of departure flow for each 10 min step in the next 120 min. In this way, the model provides both point forecasts and prediction intervals. Experiments were conducted on 80 airports with the highest departure volumes, using April–July for training, August for validation, September for testing, and October for robustness evaluation. The results show that at a 10 min interval, the model achieves an MAE of 0.411 and an RMSE of 0.713 on the test set. The error increases smoothly with the forecast horizon and remains stable within the 60–120 min range. When the forecasts are aggregated to 1 h intervals in time or aggregated by airport clusters in space, the point forecast errors decrease further, and the average empirical coverage is 0.78 and the width of the percentile-based intervals is 1.29, which can meet the risk-awareness requirements of tactical operations management. The proposed method is relatively simple and also provides a unified modeling framework for later including external factors such as weather, runway configuration, and operational procedures, and for applications across different airports and years. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue AI, Machine Learning and Automation for Air Traffic Control (ATC))
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25 pages, 2492 KB  
Article
Distant and Recent Historical Data Fusion for Improving Short- and Medium-Term Traffic Forecasting
by Metin Usta, H. Irem Turkmen and M. Amac Guvensan
Appl. Sci. 2025, 15(24), 13130; https://doi.org/10.3390/app152413130 - 13 Dec 2025
Viewed by 238
Abstract
Traffic became a major issue in large and crowded metropolitan cities and might cause people to waste in the order of days within a year. It is notable that traffic speed estimation problems were addressed in three main horizons: short term, medium term, [...] Read more.
Traffic became a major issue in large and crowded metropolitan cities and might cause people to waste in the order of days within a year. It is notable that traffic speed estimation problems were addressed in three main horizons: short term, medium term, and long term. In this paper, we both introduce a novel network feeding strategy improving short- and medium-term traffic forecasting and define the aforementioned horizons by evaluating the prediction results up to 6 h. We combined the advantages of both distant and recent historical data by developing two different Recurrent Neural Network (RNN)-based methods, H-LSTM and H-GRU, that employ Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks. The proposed Historical Average Long Short-Term Memory (H-LSTM) model demonstrates superior performance compared to traditional methods, as it is capable of integrating both the typical long-term traffic patterns observed in a specific location and the daily fluctuations, such as accidents, unanticipated events, weather conditions, and human activities on particular days. We achieve up to 20% improvement, especially for rush hours, compared to the traditional approach, i.e., exploiting only recent historical data. H-LSTM could make predictions with an average of ±7.5 km/h error margin up to 6 h for a given location. Full article
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18 pages, 1606 KB  
Article
Remaining Track Miles Estimation: Evaluating Current Operation and AI Assistance Potential
by Jonas Spoor, Ole Bunde, Ricardo Reinke, Alexander Heise and Peter Hecker
Aerospace 2025, 12(12), 1098; https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace12121098 - 10 Dec 2025
Viewed by 433
Abstract
In commercial aviation, accurate estimation of the remaining track miles (RTM) during descent is essential for energy-efficient trajectory management. Currently, pilots often rely on heuristics and experience due to the lack of consistent RTM information, which can result in suboptimal decisions. This study [...] Read more.
In commercial aviation, accurate estimation of the remaining track miles (RTM) during descent is essential for energy-efficient trajectory management. Currently, pilots often rely on heuristics and experience due to the lack of consistent RTM information, which can result in suboptimal decisions. This study investigates the accuracy of RTM estimations made by commercial pilots through a structured survey involving scenario-based assessments across seven European airports. Results show a consistent underestimation bias, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.69 NM. To quantify the potential of data-driven alternatives, a machine learning model based on gradient boosting was developed using ADS-B surveillance and weather data. The model achieved significantly lower prediction errors, with an RMSE of 5.43 NM, particularly outperforming pilots in early descent segments. Feature importance analysis revealed that spatial and trajectory-related variables were key to accurate predictions. The findings suggest that integrating predictive models into flight management systems or pilot decision support tools could improve descent planning and operational efficiency. This study provides an empirical comparison between human and AI-based RTM estimations, highlighting the potential for machine learning to complement pilot expertise in future air traffic operations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Aeronautics)
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18 pages, 2759 KB  
Article
Research on Real-Time Operational Risk Prediction for New Energy Vehicles Based on Multi-Source Feature Fusion
by Yilong Shi, Shubing Huang, Beichen Zhao, Liang Peng and Chongming Wang
World Electr. Veh. J. 2025, 16(11), 626; https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj16110626 - 18 Nov 2025
Viewed by 385
Abstract
With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles (NEVs), the number of NEV-related traffic accidents has risen sharply. To address the challenge of low accuracy in real-time risk assessment caused by the coupling of multi-source heterogeneous data, this paper proposes a real-time risk [...] Read more.
With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles (NEVs), the number of NEV-related traffic accidents has risen sharply. To address the challenge of low accuracy in real-time risk assessment caused by the coupling of multi-source heterogeneous data, this paper proposes a real-time risk prediction method for NEV operations based on multi-source feature fusion. First, considering issues such as signal loss and bias in NEV operation data and accident records, a fused accident operation dataset is constructed through data matching, imputation, and Kalman smoothing. Then, this study analyzes the influence of external factors (e.g., weather, road type, and lighting) and internal factors (e.g., speed, acceleration, and driving duration) on accident risk and develops a normalized representation method for NEV accident risk features. Based on the coupling of internal and external parameters, a real-time accident risk prediction model is established based on the XGBoost algorithm, enabling accurate prediction of NEV accidents. Vehicle data tests show that the proposed method achieves an average accident risk prediction accuracy of 69.60%, outperforming the traditional Analytic Hierarchy Process and Support Vector Machine models. Finally, application effect demonstrates that the method reduces the NEV accident rate to 0.83%, effectively assisting traffic management departments in identifying and warning high-risk vehicles, thereby improving road traffic safety. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Vehicle and Transportation Systems)
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28 pages, 547 KB  
Article
State-DynAttn: A Hybrid State-Space and Dynamic Graph Attention Architecture for Robust Air Traffic Flow Prediction Under Weather Disruptions
by Fei Yan and Huawei Wang
Mathematics 2025, 13(20), 3346; https://doi.org/10.3390/math13203346 - 21 Oct 2025
Viewed by 712
Abstract
We propose State-DynAttn, a hybrid architecture for robust air traffic flow prediction under weather disruptions, which integrates state-space models (SSMs) with dynamic graph attention to address the challenges of long-range dependency modeling and adaptive spatial–temporal relationship learning. The increasing complexity of air traffic [...] Read more.
We propose State-DynAttn, a hybrid architecture for robust air traffic flow prediction under weather disruptions, which integrates state-space models (SSMs) with dynamic graph attention to address the challenges of long-range dependency modeling and adaptive spatial–temporal relationship learning. The increasing complexity of air traffic systems, exacerbated by unpredictable weather events, demands methods that can simultaneously capture global temporal patterns and localized disruptions; existing approaches often struggle to balance these requirements efficiently. The proposed method employs two parallel branches: an SSM branch for continuous-time recurrent modeling of long-range dependencies with linear complexity, and a dynamic graph attention branch that adaptively computes node-pair weights while incorporating weather severity features through sparsification strategies for scalability. These branches are fused via a data-dependent gating mechanism, enabling the model to dynamically prioritize either global temporal dynamics or localized spatial interactions based on input conditions. Moreover, the architecture leverages memory-efficient attention computation and HiPPO initialization to ensure stable training and inference. Experiments on real-world air traffic datasets demonstrate that State-DynAttn outperforms existing baselines in prediction accuracy and robustness, particularly under severe weather scenarios. The framework’s ability to handle both gradual traffic evolution and abrupt disruption-induced changes makes it suitable for real-world deployment in air traffic management systems. Furthermore, the design principles of State-DynAttn can be extended to other spatiotemporal prediction tasks where long-range dependencies and dynamic relational structures coexist. This work contributes a principled approach to hybridizing state-space models with graph-based attention, offering insights into the trade-offs between computational efficiency and modeling flexibility in complex dynamical systems. Full article
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14 pages, 2184 KB  
Article
Neural Network-Based Prediction of Traffic Accidents and Congestion Levels Using Real-World Urban Road Data
by Baraa A. Alfasi, Khaled R. M. Mahmoud, Al-Hussein Matar and Mohamed H. Abdelati
Future Transp. 2025, 5(4), 138; https://doi.org/10.3390/futuretransp5040138 - 7 Oct 2025
Viewed by 1713
Abstract
This study presents a machine learning framework for predicting traffic accident occurrence and congestion intensity using artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on real-world traffic data collected from a central urban corridor in Egypt. The research aims to enhance proactive traffic management by providing [...] Read more.
This study presents a machine learning framework for predicting traffic accident occurrence and congestion intensity using artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on real-world traffic data collected from a central urban corridor in Egypt. The research aims to enhance proactive traffic management by providing reliable, data-driven forecasts derived from temporal and environmental road features. Sixty-seven traffic observations were recorded over three months, capturing variations across vehicle flow, speed, weather, holidays, and road conditions. Two predictive models were developed: a binary accident detection classifier and a multi-class congestion level estimation classifier. Both models employed Bayesian optimization for hyperparameter tuning and were evaluated under three validation strategies—5-fold cross-validation, 10-fold cross-validation, and resubstitution—combined with different train/test splits. The results demonstrated that the model using 10-fold cross-validation and a 75/25 split achieved the highest accuracy in accident prediction (93.8% on test data), with minimal variance between validation and testing phases. In contrast, resubstitution validation yielded artificially high training accuracy (up to 100%) but lower generalization performance, confirming overfitting risks. Congestion prediction showed similarly strong classification trends, with the optimized model effectively distinguishing between congestion levels under dynamic traffic conditions. These findings validate the use of ANN-based prediction in real-world traffic scenarios and highlight the critical role of validation design in developing robust forecasting models. The proposed approach holds promise for integrating intelligent transportation systems, enabling anticipatory interventions, and enhancing road safety. Full article
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19 pages, 3159 KB  
Article
Optimizing Traffic Accident Severity Prediction with a Stacking Ensemble Framework
by Imad El Mallahi, Jamal Riffi, Hamid Tairi, Nikola S. Nikolov, Mostafa El Mallahi and Mohamed Adnane Mahraz
World Electr. Veh. J. 2025, 16(10), 561; https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj16100561 - 1 Oct 2025
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1108
Abstract
Road traffic crashes (RTCs) have emerged as a major global cause of fatalities, with the number of accident-related deaths rising rapidly each day. To mitigate this issue, it is essential to develop early prediction methods that help drivers and riders understand accident statistics [...] Read more.
Road traffic crashes (RTCs) have emerged as a major global cause of fatalities, with the number of accident-related deaths rising rapidly each day. To mitigate this issue, it is essential to develop early prediction methods that help drivers and riders understand accident statistics relevant to their region. These methods should consider key factors such as speed limits, compliance with traffic signs and signals, pedestrian crossings, right-of-way rules, weather conditions, driver negligence, fatigue, and the impact of excessive speed on RTC occurrences. Raising awareness of these factors enables individuals to exercise greater caution, thereby contributing to accident prevention. A promising approach to improving road traffic accident severity classification is the stacking ensemble method, which leverages multiple machine learning models. This technique addresses challenges such as imbalanced datasets and high-dimensional features by combining predictions from various base models into a meta-model, ultimately enhancing classification accuracy. The ensemble approach exploits the diverse strengths of different models, capturing multiple aspects of the data to improve predictive performance. The effectiveness of stacking depends on the careful selection of base models with complementary strengths, ensuring robust and reliable predictions. Additionally, advanced feature engineering and selection techniques can further optimize the model’s performance. Within the field of artificial intelligence, various machine learning (ML) techniques have been explored to support decision making in tackling RTC-related issues. These methods aim to generate precise reports and insights. However, the stacking method has demonstrated significantly superior performance compared to existing approaches, making it a valuable tool for improving road safety. Full article
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