Search Results (3,376)

Severe and unpredictable wind conditions significantly disrupt flight safety, mission planning, and scheduling. Traditional wind forecasting methods rely on low-resolution mesoscale models or resource-intensive instrumentation. This study evaluates the accuracy of 40 m Large-Eddy Simulations (LESs), nested within a mesoscale framework, to better resolve hazardous wind phenomena over GrandSKY, North Dakota, the first large-scale commercial Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) test park in the United States, serving as a hub for UAS innovation and Beyond Visual Line of Sight operations. Using low-altitude airborne observations from Meteodrone flights, satellite data, and ground-based measurements, we assess the model’s accuracy in predicting wind speed and direction during both summer and winter. Results demonstrate that the 40 m LES provides improved predictions of wind gust variability compared to the 1 km forecast, and the impact on flight safety is quantified. The LES also reveals notable discrepancies in UAS flyability predictions, which result in up to a 17% reduction in operational windows during the summer. This study’s novelty lies in using a 40 m resolution LES nested within a 1 km WRF simulation, combined with multi-source observations, to resolve low-altitude turbulence and quantify its impact on UAS operations. A 10–18% correction factor can be applied to TKE (or derived wind variability) in coarser WRF runs to better estimate maximum wind speeds without LES. The findings highlight the potential of high-resolution LES modeling to support reliable UAS operations in weather-sensitive environments, laying the groundwork for broader integration of advanced simulation techniques in national airspace management systems. Full article

The accuracy of numerical weather prediction largely depends on the quality of the initial conditions. Global Navigation Satellite System radio occultation (GNSS-RO) observations, with their high vertical resolution, play an important role in reducing initial condition errors. In this study, multiple simulations with different initialization times were conducted during the development of Typhoon BEBINCA using the WRF-GSI assimilation system to evaluate the impact of YunYao GNSS-RO observations on improving extreme weather simulation performance and to investigate the sensitivity of refractivity assimilation to different cloud microphysics parameterization schemes. The results show that assimilating YunYao GNSS-RO data significantly improves the consistency between the model initial fields and observations and enhances the analysis quality in the middle and upper troposphere. Compared with ERA5 reanalysis data, the assimilation experiments better reproduce the spatial and temporal evolution of key atmospheric variables, and the improvements persist from 36 h to 120 h forecast lead time. Statistical results from multiple initializations show that the maximum RMSE reductions exceed 0.2 K for temperature, 0.1 m s⁻¹ for wind speed, and geopotential height shows consistent improvements throughout the entire atmosphere. In addition, the assimilation experiments improve the simulation of Typhoon BEBINCA’s track and intensity. Statistical results from multiple initializations indicate that the 84 h track error is reduced by approximately 30 km on average, and the minimum central pressure bias is also reduced. Sensitivity experiments further show that the WSM6 microphysics scheme performs better in track forecasting, while the Thompson scheme is more suitable for intensity forecasting. Overall, YunYao GNSS-RO assimilation effectively improves typhoon forecast accuracy and demonstrates strong potential for operational applications. Full article

Climate-related extremes such as floods and droughts have been the main causes of natural disasters in southern Africa in recent years, with noticeable trends in climate extremes being observed. The Limpopo Province in South Africa has been especially prone to these extremes. The extreme precipitation in Limpopo is mainly caused by a mix of intense tropical weather systems and La Niña conditions, both exacerbated by climate change. Climate change exacerbates current water challenges across the province by affecting precipitation patterns, distribution, timing and intensity, leading to extreme climate events such as floods and drought. The historical and future trends of precipitation and relevant extreme indices using observed data from the South African Weather Service and CORDEX ensemble model simulations under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were examined. An analysis of all precipitation data suitable for the study of long-term variability and trends indicates that most areas underwent drying to various degrees over the last century, especially the central and western parts. Drier conditions over the eastern parts have become more prevalent over the last 50 years. Also, more extremes on a sub-seasonal basis were experienced. Regarding future scenarios, three projected time periods compared to the baseline period (1976–2005) were examined: Current climatology (2006–2035), near-future (2036–2065), and far-future (2066–2095). Most areas will experience a further decrease in precipitation under both emission scenarios, especially in the south-east, central and extreme northern parts. In addition, these areas are expected to experience a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation days for all periods under both RCP scenarios, mainly due to drying. Consecutive dry days are expected to increase significantly. Transitioning to renewable energy and enhancing natural carbon sinks can reduce emissions, while prioritizing resilience through renewable energy, water management, and climate-smart agriculture will help address climate change challenges in the province. Full article

In this study, we evaluated the use of five different ML algorithms (CatBoost, XGBoost, random forest, gradient boosting, and support vector regression [SVR]) to estimate daily ET₀ based only on four independent variables: 2 m air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, 10 m wind speed, and sunshine duration. We used a total of 9132 daily values (2000–2025) from the Open-Meteo Historical Weather API (2000–2025) at 10 stations in the Tlemcen province of northwest Algeria. The dataset was divided into training, validation, and testing sets using a chronological split of 70/15/15. We estimated the performance of each algorithm by using several statistics (RMSE, MAE, R², NSE, RSR, and Willmott Index) as well as some statistics to evaluate the potential of overfitting and the ability to reproduce the behavior observed during the training phase. CatBoost had the highest overall accuracy and the most generalized performance, with an RMSE of approximately 0.292 mm day⁻¹, MAE of approximately 0.208 mm day⁻¹, R² of 0.971, and NSE of 0.971 in the test set, suggesting an extremely low risk of overfitting. The optimal CatBoost model was also used to estimate the spatial and temporal variations of monthly ET₀. The results showed high interannual variability (changes from year to year from −12.815 to +8.707 mm month⁻¹) in the semi-arid region of Tlemcen but no significant long-term trends (cumulative net change of approximately −0.021 mm month⁻¹ over 2000–2025). Therefore, the use of CatBoost is recommended as a robust, efficient, and reliable emulator of the FAO-56 Penman–Monteith equation (ET₀) for estimating ET₀ in semi-arid environments with limited climate data availability, and could be particularly useful in northwestern Algeria and other semi-arid Mediterranean regions. Full article

In evaluating energy consumption in building complexes, the influence of urban microclimate variations—primarily driven by the urban heat island (UHI) effect—is often overlooked, leading to modeling inaccuracies. This study develops a numerical simulation framework integrating Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and EnergyPlus to assess the energy consumption of university dormitories while accounting for regional microclimate conditions. This is because university dormitories serve as a key indicator for measuring the type of high-density residential buildings in China. The model incorporates dynamic microclimate variables, including ambient temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and cloud cover, to simulate dormitory energy consumption profiles. Simulation results are validated against measured data, yielding an annual energy consumption error of −1.03%. Quantitative analysis indicates that ignoring the microclimate effect and directly using data from nearby meteorological stations or TMY data has a limited impact on the annual total energy consumption but has a significant impact on seasonal results. To improve the simulation accuracy of building complexes, more attention should be paid to temperature and relative humidity. Moreover, for areas with low occupant density and a high shape coefficient, energy consumption simulation should also consider the local microclimate factors. Full article

The Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS) onboard the FengYun-4B weather satellite provides critical upwelling atmospheric infrared radiance. To address the limitations of the previous sounder (FY-4A/GIIRS) in terms of spatial resolution and spectral coverage, FY-4B/GIIRS has increased the spatial resolution to 12 km and added more spectral channels in the long-wave band to enhance the observation details and information content of weather systems. To evaluate its baseline performance, a comprehensive preflight test campaign—encompassing spectral and radiometric assessments—was conducted in a thermal vacuum (TVAC) chamber. Spectral characterization via laser measurements confirmed the instrument spectral response function (ISRF) is highly consistent with the theoretical cardinal sine function (sinc). Gas-cell tests demonstrated that, after correcting for off-axis effect, the spectral calibration errors are on average less than 5 ppm, validated against Line-By-Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM) simulations. The radiometric calibration employed temperature-variable blackbodies for noise performance and radiometric accuracy assessments. The radiometric sensitivity, characterized by Noise Equivalent differential Radiance (NEdR), is less than 0.5 and 0.1 mW/(m²·sr·cm⁻¹) in the long-wave infrared (LWIR) and mid-wave infrared (MWIR) bands, respectively. To address the LWIR detector nonlinearity, an iterative polynomial fitting algorithm based on spectral responsivity invariance was implemented. This correction reduces the radiometric deviation from >1.0 K to ~0.2 K, meeting the 0.7 K accuracy requirement across a 180–315 K dynamic range. Conversely, the MWIR band exhibits high linearity but is limited by noise when observing low-temperature scenarios and can only meet the 0.7 K requirement within the range of 250 to 315 K. Full article

Vision-based navigation systems (VINS) are increasingly utilised as an alternative to GNSS for UAVs operating in urban environments, but they suffer from performance degradation under visual fault conditions like illumination variation, rapid motion, texture-less environments, and weather effects. While hybrid architecture incorporating Kalman filters and machine learning (ML) improves performance, they often lack evidence of providing contingency for non-Gaussian error distributions, limiting operational safety. To address these shortcomings, an enhanced hybrid VINS architecture is proposed, featuring a Bayesian GRU-based error correction network (B-GRU) to provide a contingency while compensating model errors. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to estimate uncertainty using a B-GRU compensator while addressing data uncertainty for VINS applications. The system architecture integrates an Error-State Kalman Filter (ESKF) and the B-GRU, compensating for position errors with uncertainty prediction. The proposed approach is validated using datasets from MATLAB incorporated in an Unreal Engine simulated environment, replicating the complex fault conditions. The ML model is trained on various visual failure modes to adapt the variability in the signal patterns during flights with simulated datasets and tested across varied flight paths and lighting scenarios. The results demonstrate that the fusion strategy effectively corrects erroneous measurements arising from corrupted sensor data and imperfect models and achieves an improvement of 78.06% compared to SOTA hybrid VIO on the horizontal axis while capturing complex flight dynamics in an unseen environment. A comparative analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of B-GRU in mitigating failure modes with a predictive error boundary, achieving a 72% improvement in performance compared to the architecture that integrates GRU-based error compensation. This approach shows a step forward in enhancing positioning accuracy and contingency in challenging urban environments. Full article

Morocco is among the regions in the Mediterranean basin most exposed to the impacts of climate variability and change. This increasing exposure requires a detailed and rigorous analysis of regional atmospheric dynamics to better understand the mechanisms behind recent climate trends. This study aims to examine the variability of circulation weather types (CWTs) at a regional scale over the period 1980–2019, within a geographical area bounded by latitudes 20° to 40° N and longitudes 10° to 22.5° W. The analysis is based on data from the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2, including mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500), with a spatial resolution of 2.5° in both latitude and longitude. The adopted methodology identifies daily CWT using a principal component analysis (PCA) in S-mode with Varimax rotation (PCAV), followed by the evaluation of their monthly distributions and temporal trends. The analysis highlights a marked trend toward increased atmospheric configurations conducive to hot conditions during the dry season, associated with the intensification and northward shift in the Saharan thermal low. This dynamic is reinforced by the increased frequency of ridges or high geopotential heights at 500 hPa, which transport warm tropical air toward the region. Moreover, the study reveals a notable decrease in the frequency of upper-level troughs at 500 hPa during the wet season. These upper-level troughs play a crucial role in cyclogenesis and the delivery of precipitation. These findings indicate a shift toward a regional atmospheric dynamic unfavorable to Morocco’s hydric balance, characterized by more frequent and intense summer heat and worsening winter drought. Full article

Self-contained local forecasting of wind and solar series can improve operational planning of wind farms and photovoltaic (PV) plant day-cycles in addition to numerical models, which are mostly behind time due to high simulation costs. Unstable electricity production requires balancing the availability of renewable energy (RE) with unpredictable user consumption to achieve effective usage. Artificial intelligence (AI) predictive modelling can minimise the intermittent uncertainty in wind and solar resources by trying to eliminate specific problems in RE-detached system reliability and optimal utilisation. The proposed 24 h day-training and prediction scheme comprises the starting detection and the following similarity re-assessment of sampling day-series intervals. Two-point professional weather stations record standard meteorological variables, of which the most relevant are selected as optimal model inputs. Automatic two-layer altitude observation captures key relationships between hill- and lowland-level data, which comply with pattern progress. New biologically inspired differential learning (DfL) is designed and developed to integrate adaptive neurocomputing (evolving node tree components) with customised numerical procedures of operator calculus (OC) based on derivative transforms. DfL enables the representation of uncertain dynamics related to local weather patterns. Angular and frequency data (wind azimuth, temperature, irradiation) are processed together with the amplitudes to solve simple 2-variable partial differential equations (PDEs) in binomial nodes. Differentiated data provide the fruitful information necessary to model upcoming changes in mid-term day horizons. Additional PDE components in periodic form improve the modelling of hidden complex patterns in cycle data. The DfL efficiency was proved in statistical experiments, compared to a variety of elaborated AI techniques, enhanced by selective difference input preprocessing. Successful LSTM-deep and stochastic tree learning shows little inferior model performances, notably in day-ahead estimation of chaotic 24 h wind series, and slightly better approximation of alterative 8 h solar cycles. Free parametric C++ software with the applied archive data is available for additional comparative and reproducible experiments. Full article

The Mediterranean Basin faces increasing risks from extreme weather events, particularly heat stress, which severely threatens the productivity of sensitive crops, like processing tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.). This study evaluated the agronomic, physiological, quality, and economic performance of using Mater-Bi^®-based biodegradable mulch films—varying in color (black and White/Black) and thickness (12 µm and 15 µm)—in two distinct Southern Italian pedoclimatic sites: Sicily and Campania. The aim was to define site-specific optimization strategies by comparing three biodegradable mulch film treatments, 12 µm (BDM12), 15 µm (BDM15), and Black/White (BDBW), against bare soil (BS). The results confirmed that biodegradable mulching enhances plant physiological status, such as chlorophyll and nitrogen balance index (NBI), and marketable yield compared to BS. The effectiveness of the films depended significantly on the environment. In Sicily, the BDBW (White/Black) film provided the maximum marketable yield (804.7 q ha⁻¹), confirming its crucial role in mitigating high soil temperatures through radiation reflection. Conversely, in the more favorable Campanian environment, the thicker black film (BDN15) achieved the highest yield (867.3 q ha⁻¹), indicating that microclimate stability is prioritized over heat mitigation under optimal conditions. Quality analysis showed high variability; while the Sicilian site generally favored color and antioxidant capacity, total soluble solids (°Brix) exhibited a trade-off. BDBW achieved the highest °Brix (6.1) in Sicily, while BS yielded the highest (6.03) in Campania, suggesting that slight water stress can concentrate sugars at the expense of total yield. The economic analysis demonstrated that the °Brix increase achieved with biodegradable films provided a net additional economic return superior to BS in both sites (up to +52.92% with BDBW). These findings suggest that the adoption of biodegradable mulching represents a key strategy for the sustainable intensification of processing tomato. Future cultivation strategies must mandatorily integrate the personalized selection of film color and thickness as a key element to synergistically maximize yield, quality, and economic return, tailored to the specific pedoclimatic conditions of each production site. Full article

Accurate wind speed forecasting is essential for the efficient integration of wind energy into power systems, as it directly influences generation scheduling, grid stability, and energy market operations. Forecast errors can lead to significant economic losses, including increased balancing costs, inefficient dispatch of backup generation, and penalties in electricity markets. However, wind behaviour is highly complex due to the influence of synoptic weather systems, terrain variability, and turbulence, which makes accurate prediction particularly challenging. This paper proposes a hybrid modelling framework that combines a linear regression mean model with Gaussian process (GP) residual modelling to improve forecast accuracy. Monitoring stations were grouped based on geographic coordinates and elevation, with cluster validation using the Hopkins statistic and silhouette analysis. The results show that for high-elevation inland stations (cluster 2), GP residual modelling improves forecast accuracy by up to 16.3%. In contrast, for low-elevation coastal stations (cluster 1), the GP approach does not yield improvements, indicating that its effectiveness depends strongly on the underlying wind regime. Full article

Silicon is increasingly applied in agriculture to improve plant productivity under both abiotic and biotic stress constraints. Nevertheless, its mechanisms of action are often studied separately at the soil, plant, or microbiome levels, limiting a comprehensive understanding of its overall impact on agroecosystem functioning. This review proposes an integrated perspective of the soil–plant–microbiome continuum, linking silicon chemistry in soil solutions with the effects of silicon amendments on soil properties and the processes of uptake, transport, and deposition in the plants. We show that silicon bioavailability depends on maintaining a pool of dissolved silicon dominated by orthosilicic acid, regulated by mineral weathering, adsorption–desorption dynamics, polymerization, pH, iron and aluminum oxides, and organic matter. In soils, silicon inputs can improve structure, modulate acidity and cation exchange balances, influence nutrient availability, and reduce the mobility of certain metals. They may also affect enzymatic activities and microbial community composition. In plants, silicon uptake and transport, mediated by specific transporters, contribute to tissue silicification, the maintenance of leaf architecture, and the regulation of water, ionic, and redox homeostasis. These processes provide a basis for enhanced tolerance to drought, salinity, and metal toxicity, as well as biotic stress caused by pathogens and pests. Finally, we discuss key limitations to the agronomic application of silicon, including the diagnosis of the silicic status of soils, the choice of source and mode of application, and the genotypic variability of acquisition, as well as the need for multi-site tests and more robust mechanistic validations. This synthesis provides a coherent mechanistic framework to better define the conditions under which silicon can serve as a reliable tool for sustainable crop management under climate change. Full article

Accurately forecasting the weighted mean temperature (Tm) is critical for converting the zenith wet delay (ZWD) into global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-based precipitable water vapor (PWV) for real-time sensing and forecasting applications. The forecast Vienna Mapping Function 1 (VMF1-FC) is a global forecast product developed by TU Wien based on numerical weather prediction models and can provide grid-wise Tm one day ahead. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy of VMF1-FC-forecasted Tm using observations from 319 global radiosonde (RS) sites during 2019–2021. The results indicate that VMF1-FC-forecasted Tm shows a relatively low RMSE but a relatively large bias (0.75 K) relative to the widely used Global Pressure and Temperature 3 (GPT3) model. To improve the accuracy of VMF1-FC-forecasted Tm, three refined models, XTm, LTm, and CTm, are developed using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), and Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), respectively, based on observations from 319 RS sites. The models use longitude, latitude, ellipsoidal height, floating day of year (fdoy), and VMF1-FC Tm as input features, and RS Tm as the target variable. Validation using RS data from 2022 that are not involved in model development shows that the refined models significantly reduce bias, with biases of 0 K, 0 K, and −0.03 K for XTm, LTm, and CTm, respectively. Benefiting from the effective reduction in bias, the root mean square error (RMSE) is correspondingly reduced. The RMSEs of XTm, LTm, and CTm are 1.45 K, 1.45 K, and 1.46 K, respectively, achieving improvements of 18.50%/64.93%, 18.44%/64.91%, and 18.11%/64.76% compared with the VMF1-FC and GPT3 models. In addition, three refined models demonstrate higher accuracy and improve stability across different latitude bands, ellipsoidal height ranges, and temporal scales. The refined models provide more accurate global-scale Tm and offer strong potential for GNSS meteorological applications, particularly real-time GNSS-based PWV sensing and weather forecasting. Full article

To improve solar irradiance simulation accuracy for precise photovoltaic power forecasting, we developed a hybrid framework combining WRF-Solar numerical simulation and random forest (RF) machine learning for a PV plant in Guangdong, China. Weather conditions were objectively classified into clear, intermittent cloudy, and overcast using the Daily Variability Index (DVI) and Daily Clear-sky Index (DCI). We calibrated the WRF-Solar model’s microphysics and radiative transfer schemes via sensitivity tests to optimize overcast-sky performance, then applied RF correction to the simulated irradiance. Results show that RF correction significantly reduces simulation errors for intermittent and overcast conditions, while the original WRF-Solar outperforms the corrected results under clear skies due to RF overfitting. Full article

Atmospheric equatorial Kelvin waves—convective disturbances that manipulate tropical wind and rainfall patterns—can propagate eastward at speeds ranging from nearly stationary to 30 m/s, with variability determined by moist processes and advection by the background wind. Current studies on Kelvin waves lack a comprehensive climatology that explains how their structure and propagation speeds change in different background states. Thus, this work builds a variable regression model that uses ERA5 reanalysis data to reconstruct Kelvin waves during different background wind shear conditions and phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the Pacific. Overall, Kelvin waves tend to speed up during background conditions that generate upper-tropospheric westerlies and slow down during upper-tropospheric easterlies. East Pacific Kelvin waves are faster than West Pacific Kelvin waves because of climatological westerly shear in the former and easterly shear in the latter. However, strong westerly shear over the East Pacific allows extratropical Rossby waves to impede on the Kelvin wave, while strong easterly shear over the West Pacific distorts classical Kelvin wave structure. The results provide references for weather prediction models to accurately resolve the interaction between Kelvin waves and background circulation. Full article