Search Results (3,592)

Rotating compressors are foundational in various industrial processes, particularly in the oil-and-gas sector, where reliable fault detection is crucial for maintaining operational continuity. While Graph Attention Network (GAT) frameworks are widely available, this study advances the state of the art by introducing a Bayesian GAT method specifically tailored for vibration-based compressor fault diagnosis. The approach integrates domain-specific digital-twin simulations built with Rotordynamic software (1.3.0), and constructs dual adjacency matrices to encode both physically informed and data-driven sensor relationships. Additionally, a hybrid forecasting-and-reconstruction objective enables the model to capture short-term deviations as well as long-term waveform fidelity. Monte Carlo dropout further decomposes prediction uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components, providing a more robust and interpretable model. Comparative evaluations against conventional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based autoencoder and forecasting methods demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves superior fault-detection performance across multiple fault types, including misalignment, bearing failure, and unbalance. Moreover, uncertainty analyses confirm that fault severity correlates with increasing levels of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, reflecting heightened noise and reduced model confidence under more severe conditions. By enhancing GAT fundamentals with a domain-tailored dual-graph strategy, specialized Bayesian inference, and digital-twin data generation, this research delivers a comprehensive and interpretable solution for compressor fault diagnosis, paving the way for more reliable and risk-aware predictive maintenance in complex rotating machinery. Full article

Forestry carbon sinks play a crucial role in mitigating climate change and protecting ecosystems, significantly contributing to the development of carbon trading systems. Remote sensing technology has become increasingly important for monitoring carbon sinks, as it allows for precise measurement of carbon storage and ecological changes, which are vital for forecasting carbon prices. Carbon prices fluctuate due to the interaction of various factors, exhibiting non-stationary characteristics and inherent uncertainties, making accurate predictions particularly challenging. To address these complexities, this study proposes a method for predicting carbon trading prices influenced by multiple factors. We introduce a Decomposition (DECOMP) module that separates carbon price data and its influencing factors into trend and cyclical components. To manage non-stationarity, we propose the KAN with Multi-Domain Diffusion (KAN-MD) module, which efficiently extracts relevant features. Furthermore, a Wave-MH attention module, based on wavelet transformation, is introduced to minimize interference from uncertainties, thereby enhancing the robustness of the model. Empirical research using data from the Hubei carbon trading market demonstrates that our model achieves superior predictive accuracy and resilience to fluctuations compared to other benchmark methods, with an MSE of 0.204% and an MAE of 0.0277. These results provide reliable support for pricing carbon financial derivatives and managing associated risks. Full article

We introduce a novel portfolio optimization framework—Distributionally Robust Multivariate Stochastic Cone Order (DR-MSCO)—which integrates partial orders on random vectors with Wasserstein-metric ambiguity sets and adaptive cone structures to model multivariate investor preferences under distributional uncertainty. Grounded in measure theory and convex analysis, DR-MSCO employs data-driven cone selection calibrated to market regimes, along with coherent tail-risk operators that generalize Conditional Value-at-Risk to the multivariate setting. We derive a tractable second-order cone programming reformulation and demonstrate statistical consistency under empirical ambiguity sets. Empirically, we apply DR-MSCO to 23 Borsa Istanbul equities from 2021–2024, using a rolling estimation window and realistic transaction costs. Compared to classical mean–variance and standard distributionally robust benchmarks, DR-MSCO achieves higher overall and crisis-period Sharpe ratios (2.18 vs. 2.09 full sample; 0.95 vs. 0.69 during crises), reduces maximum drawdown by 10%, and yields endogenous diversification without exogenous constraints. Our results underscore the practical benefits of combining multivariate preference modeling with distributional robustness, offering institutional investors a tractable tool for resilient portfolio construction in volatile emerging markets. Full article

Transmission towers are particularly vulnerable to extreme wind events, which can lead to structural damage or collapse, thereby compromising the stability of power transmission systems. Enhancing the wind-resistant capacity of these towers is therefore critical for improving the reliability and resilience of electrical infrastructure. This study utilizes finite element analysis (FEA) to evaluate the structural response of a 220 kV transmission tower subjected to fluctuating wind loads, effectively capturing the dynamic characteristics of wind-induced forces. A comprehensive dynamic analysis is conducted to account for uncertainties in wind loading and variations in wind direction. Through this approach, this study identifies the most critical wind angle and local structural weaknesses, as well as determines the threshold wind speed that precipitates structural collapse. To improve structural resilience, a concurrent multi-scale modeling strategy is adopted. This allows for localized analysis of vulnerable components while maintaining a holistic understanding of the tower’s global behavior. To mitigate failure risks, the traditional perforated plate reinforcement technique is implemented. The reinforcement’s effectiveness is evaluated based on its impact on load-bearing capacity, displacement control, and stress redistribution. Results reveal that the critical wind direction is 45°, with failure predominantly initiating from instability in the third section of the tower leg. Post-reinforcement analysis demonstrates a marked improvement in structural performance, evidenced by a significant reduction in top displacement and stress intensity in the critical leg section. Overall, these findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the wind-induced fragility of transmission towers and offer practical reinforcement strategies that can be applied to enhance their structural integrity under extreme wind conditions. Full article

Evaluating risk in complex systems relies heavily on human auditors whose subjective assessments can be compromised by knowledge gaps and varying interpretations. This subjectivity often results in inconsistent risk evaluations, even among auditors examining identical systems, owing to differing pattern recognition processes. In this study, we propose a causality model that can improve the comprehension of risk levels by breaking down the risk factors and creating a layout of risk events and consequences in the system. To do so, the initial step is to define the risk event blocks, each comprising two distinct components: the agent and transfer mechanism. Next, we construct a causal map that outlines all risk event blocks and their logical connections, leading to the final consequential risk. Finally, we assess the overall risk based on the cause-and-effect structure. We conducted real-world illustrative examples comparing risk-level assessments with traditional experience-based auditor judgments to evaluate our proposed model. This new methodology offers several key benefits: it clarifies complex risk factors, reduces reliance on subjective judgment, and helps bridge the gap between subjective and objective uncertainty. The illustrative examples demonstrate the potential value of the model by revealing discrepancies in risk levels compared to traditional assessments. Full article

Background: Citrinin (CIT) is a mycotoxin produced by various fungi contaminating stored cereals and fruits. While biomonitoring and food occurrence data indicate widespread exposure, its public health risks remain unclear due to the lack of human toxicokinetic (TK) data. Methods: A UHPLC-MS/MS method was validated for CIT quantification in capillary blood (VAMS Mitra^® tips), feces, and urine obtaining LLOQs ≤ 0.05 ng/mL. A human TK study was conducted following a single oral bolus of 200 ng/kg bw CIT. Individual capillary blood (VAMS Mitra^® tips), feces, and urine samples were collected for 48 h after exposure. Samples were analyzed to determine CIT’s TK profile. Results: TK modeling was performed using a multi-compartmental structure with a hierarchical Bayesian population approach, allowing robust parameter estimation despite the lack of standards for CIT metabolites. Conclusions: The derived TK parameters align with preliminary human data and significantly advance CIT exposure assessment via biomonitoring. A human inter-individual toxicokinetic variability (HK_AF) of 1.92 was calculated based on the derived AUC, indicating that EFSA’s current default uncertainty factor for TK variability is adequately protective for at least 95% of the population. Full article

In Taiwan, hydro-meteorological data are fragmented across multiple agencies, limiting the effectiveness of coordinated flood response. To address this challenge and the increasing uncertainty associated with extreme rainfall, a real-time disaster prevention platform has been developed. This system integrates multi-source data and geospatial information through a cluster-based architecture to enhance pluvial flood management. Built on a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) and incorporating Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, AI-based convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and 3D drone mapping, the platform enables automated alerts by linking sensor thresholds with real-time environmental data, facilitating synchronized operational responses. Deployed in New Taipei City over the past three years, the system has demonstrably reduced flood risk during severe rainfall events. Region-specific action thresholds and adaptive strategies are continually refined through feedback mechanisms, while integrated spatial and hydrological trend analyses extend the lead time available for emergency response. Full article

Accurate prediction of landslide-induced displacement is essential for the structural integrity and operational safety of buildings and infrastructure situated in geologically unstable regions. This study introduces a novel hybrid predictive framework that synergistically integrates Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with Temporal Convolutional Neural Networks (TCNs), herein referred to as the GTCN model, to forecast displacement at building monitoring points subject to landslide activity. The proposed methodology is validated using time-series monitoring data collected from the slope adjacent to the Zhongliang Reservoir in Wuxi County, Chongqing, an area where slope instability poses a significant threat to nearby structural assets. Experimental results demonstrate the GTCN model’s superior predictive performance, particularly under challenging conditions of incomplete or sparsely sampled data. The model proves highly effective in accurately characterizing both abrupt fluctuations within the displacement time series and capturing long-term deformation trends. Furthermore, the GTCN framework outperforms comparative hybrid models based on Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and GPR, with its advantage being especially pronounced in data-limited scenarios. It also exhibits enhanced capability for temporal feature extraction relative to conventional imputation-based forecasting strategies like forward-filling. By effectively modeling both nonlinear trends and uncertainty within displacement sequences, the GTCN framework offers a robust and scalable solution for landslide-related risk assessment and early warning applications. Its applicability to building safety monitoring underscores its potential contribution to geotechnical hazard mitigation and resilient infrastructure management. Full article

With the increasing penetration of distributed generation (DG), integrated main-distribution networks (IMDNs) face challenges in rapidly and effectively performing comprehensive operational risk assessments under multiple uncertainties. Thereby, using the traditional hierarchical economic scheduling method makes it difficult to accurately find the optimal scheduling operating point. To address this problem, this paper proposes a multi-objective dispatch decision-making optimization model for the IMDN with static security region (SSR) constraints. Firstly, the non-sequential Monte Carlo sampling is employed to generate diverse operational scenarios, and then the key risk characteristics are extracted to construct the risk assessment index system for the transmission and distribution grid, respectively. Secondly, a hyperplane model of the SSR is developed for the IMDN based on alternating current power flow equations and line current constraints. Thirdly, a risk assessment matrix is constructed through optimal power flow calculations across multiple load levels, with the index weights determined via principal component analysis (PCA). Subsequently, a scheduling optimization model is formulated to minimize both the system generation costs and the comprehensive risk, where the adaptive grid density-improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization (AG-MOPSO) algorithm is employed to efficiently generate Pareto-optimal operating point solutions. A membership matrix of the solution set is then established using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to identify the optimal compromised operating point for dispatch decision support. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are validated using an integrated IEEE 9-bus and IEEE 33-bus test system. Full article

The growing density of space objects in low Earth orbit (LEO), driven by the deployment of large satellite constellations, has elevated the risk of orbital collisions and the need for high-precision conjunction analysis. Traditional methods based on Two-Line Element (TLE) data suffer from limited accuracy and insufficient uncertainty modeling. This study proposes a hybrid collision assessment framework that combines Monte Carlo simulation, spline-based refinement of the time of closest approach (TCA), and a multi-stage deterministic refinement process. The methodology begins with probabilistic sampling of TLE uncertainties, followed by a coarse search for TCA using the SGP4 propagator. A cubic spline interpolation then enhances temporal resolution, and a hierarchical multi-stage refinement computes the final TCA and minimum distance with sub-second and sub-kilometer accuracy. The framework was validated using real-world TLE data from over 2600 debris objects and active satellites. Results demonstrated a reduction in average TCA error to 0.081 s and distance estimation error to 0.688 km. The approach is computationally efficient, with average processing times below one minute per conjunction event using standard hardware. Its compatibility with operational space situational awareness (SSA) systems and scalability for high-volume screening make it suitable for integration into real-time space traffic management workflows. Full article

Detection of surface defects can significantly elongate mechanical service time and mitigate potential risks during safety management. Traditional defect detection methods predominantly rely on manual inspection, which suffers from low efficiency and high costs. Some machine learning algorithms and artificial intelligence models for defect detection, such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), present outstanding performance, but they are often data-dependent and cannot provide guarantees for new test samples. To this end, we construct a detection model by combining Mask R-CNN, selected for its strong baseline performance in pixel-level segmentation, with Conformal Risk Control. The former evaluates the distribution that discriminates defects from all samples based on probability. The detection model is improved by retraining with calibration data that is assumed to be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) with the test data. The latter constructs a prediction set on which a given guarantee for detection will be obtained. First, we define a loss function for each calibration sample to quantify detection error rates. Subsequently, we derive a statistically rigorous threshold by optimization of error rates and a given guarantee significance as the risk level. With the threshold, defective pixels with high probability in test images are extracted to construct prediction sets. This methodology ensures that the expected error rate on the test set remains strictly bounded by the predefined risk level. Furthermore, our model shows robust and efficient control over the expected test set error rate when calibration-to-test partitioning ratios vary. Full article

Under the “dual carbon” goals and rapid clean energy development, power grids face challenges including rapid load growth, uneven power flow distribution, and limited transmission capacity. This paper proposes a novel FACTS device with fault tolerance and switchable topology that maintains power flow control over multiple lines during N-1 faults, enhancing grid safety and economy. The paper establishes a steady-state mathematical model based on additional virtual nodes and provides power flow calculation methods to accurately reflect the device’s control characteristics. An entropy-weighted TOPSIS method was employed to establish a quantitative evaluation system for assessing the grid performance improvement after FACTS device integration. To address interaction issues among multiple flexible devices, an optimization planning model considering th3e coordinated effects of UPFC and VSC-HVDC was constructed. Multi-objective particle swarm optimization obtained Pareto solution sets, combined with the evaluation system, to determine the optimal configuration schemes. Considering wind power uncertainty and fault risks, we propose a system-level coordinated operation strategy. This strategy constructs probabilistic risk indicators and introduces topology switching control constraints. Using particle swarm optimization, it achieves a balance between safety and economic objectives. Simulation results in the Jiangsu power grid scenarios demonstrated significant advantages in enhancing the transmission capacity, optimizing the power flow distribution, and ensuring system security. Full article

This study aims to estimate the carbon footprint and relative uncertainties for design components of conventional and geopolymer concrete. All the design components of alkaline-activated geopolymer concrete, such as fly ash, ground granulated blast furnace slag, sodium hydroxide (NaOH), sodium silicate (Na₂SiO₃), superplasticizer, and others, are assessed to reflect the actual scenarios of the carbon footprint. The conjugate application of the life cycle assessment (LCA) tool SimPro 9.4 and @RISK Monte Carlo simulation justifies the variations in carbon emissions rather than a specific determined value for concrete binders, precursors, and filler materials. A reduction of 43% in carbon emissions has been observed by replacing cement with alkali-activated binders. However, the associative uncertainties of chemical admixtures reveal that even a slight increase may cause significant environmental damage rather than its benefit. Pearson correlations of carbon footprint with three admixtures, namely sodium silicate (r = 0.80), sodium hydroxide (r = 0.52), and superplasticizer (r = 0.19), indicate that the shift from cement to alkaline activation needs additional precaution for excessive use. Therefore, a suitable method of manufacturing chemical activators utilizing renewable energy sources may ensure long-term sustainability. Full article

Evapotranspiration (ET) crucially regulates water storage dynamics and is an essential component of the terrestrial water cycle. Understanding ET dynamics is fundamental for sustainable water resource management, particularly in regions facing increasing drought risks under climate change. In regions like southwestern China, where extreme drought events are prevalent due to complex terrain and climate warming, ET becomes a key factor in understanding water availability and drought dynamics. Using the SWAT model, this study investigates ET dynamics and influencing factors in the Jizi Basin, Yunnan Province, a small basin with over 71% forest coverage. The model calibration and validation results demonstrated a high degree of consistency with observed discharge data and ERA5, confirming its reliability. The results show that the annual average ET in the Jizi Basin is 573.96 mm, with significant seasonal variations. ET in summer typically ranges from 70 to 100 mm/month, while in winter, it drops to around 20 mm/month. Spring ET exhibits the highest variability, coinciding with the occurrence of extreme hydrological events such as droughts. The monthly anomalies of ET effectively reproduce the spring and early summer 2019 drought event. Notably, ET variation exhibits significant uncertainty under scenarios of +1 °C temperature and −20% precipitation. Furthermore, although land use changes had relatively small effects on overall ET, they played crucial roles in promoting groundwater recharge through enhanced percolation, especially forest cover. The study highlights that, in addition to climate and land use, soil moisture and groundwater conditions are vital in modulating ET and drought occurrence. The findings offer insights into the hydrological processes of small forested basins in southwestern China and provide important support for sustainable water resource management and effective climate adaptation strategies, particularly in the context of increasing drought vulnerability. Full article

In the past decade, agricultural biogas plants have become one of the key tools driving the energy transition in rural areas. Nevertheless, their development in Poland still lags behind that in Western European countries, suggesting the existence of barriers that go beyond technological or regulatory issues. This study aims to examine how Polish farmers perceive the risks and expected benefits associated with investing in biogas plants and which of these perceptions influence their willingness to invest. The research was conducted in the second quarter of 2025 among farmers planning to build micro biogas plants as well as owners of existing biogas facilities. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were also used in selecting respondents and identifying potential investment sites, helping to pinpoint areas with favorable spatial and environmental conditions. The findings show that both current and prospective biogas plant operators view complex legal requirements, social risk, and financial uncertainty as the main obstacles. However, both groups are primarily motivated by the desire for on-farm energy self-sufficiency and the environmental benefits of improved agricultural waste management. Owners of operational installations—particularly small and medium-sized ones—tend to rate all categories of risk significantly lower than prospective investors, suggesting that practical experience and knowledge-sharing can effectively alleviate perceived risks related to renewable energy investments. Full article