Search Results (3,156)

This study presents a hybrid approach to hydrological forecasting by integrating the physically based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with Prophet time-series modeling and machine learning–based multi-output regression. Applied to the Cahaba watershed, the objective is to predict key environmental variables (precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and snowmelt) and their influence on hydrological responses (surface runoff, groundwater flow, soil water, sediment yield, and water yield) under present (2010–2022) and future (2030–2042) climate scenarios. Using SWAT outputs for calibration, the integrated SWAT-Prophet-ML model predicted ET and PET with RMSE values between 10 and 20 mm. Performance was lower for high-variability events such as precipitation (RMSE = 30–50 mm). Under current climate conditions, R² values of 0.75 (water yield) and 0.70 (surface runoff) were achieved. Groundwater and sediment yields were underpredicted, particularly during peak years. The model’s limitations relate to its dependence on historical trends and its limited representation of physical processes, which constrain its performance under future climate scenarios. Suggested improvements include scenario-based training and integration of physical constraints. The approach offers a scalable, data-driven method for enhancing monthly water balance prediction and supports applications in watershed planning. Full article

Air pollution threatens human health and ecosystems, making timely forecasting essential. The spatiotemporal dynamics of pollutants, shaped by various factors, challenge traditional methods. Therefore, spatiotemporal graph-based deep learning has gained attention for its ability to capture spatial and temporal dependencies within monitoring networks. However, many existing models, despite their high predictive accuracy, face computational complexity and scalability challenges. This study introduces clustered and lightweight spatio-temporal graph convolutional network with gated recurrent unit (ClusLite-STGCN-GRU), a hybrid model that integrates spatial clustering based on pollutant time series for graph construction, Copula-based dependency analysis for selecting relevant pollutants to predict PM_2.5, and graph convolution combined with gated recurrent units to extract spatiotemporal features. Unlike conventional approaches that require learning or dynamically updating adjacency matrices, ClusLite-STGCN-GRU employs a fixed, simple cluster-based structure. Experimental results on Tehran air quality data demonstrate that the proposed model not only achieves competitive predictive performance compared to more complex models, but also significantly reduces computational cost—by up to 66% in training time, 83% in memory usage, and 84% in number of floating-point operations—making it suitable for real-time applications and offering a practical balance between accuracy, interpretability, and efficiency. Full article

The increasing penetration of photovoltaic solar energy has intensified the need for accurate production forecasting to ensure efficient grid operation. This study presents a critical comparison of traditional statistical methods and machine learning approaches for forecasting solar irradiance using the benchmark Folsom PLC dataset. Two primary research questions are addressed: whether machine learning models outperform traditional techniques, and whether time series modelling improves prediction accuracy. The analysis includes an evaluation of a range of models, including statistical regressions (OLS, LASSO, ridge), regression trees, neural networks, LSTM, and random forests, which are applied to physical modelling and time series approaches. The results reveal that although machine learning methods can outperform statistical models, particularly with the inclusion of exogenous weather features, they are not universally superior across all forecasting horizons. Furthermore, pure time series approach models yield lower performance. However, a hybrid approach in which physical models are integrated with machine learning demonstrates significantly improved accuracy. These findings highlight the value of hybrid models for photovoltaic forecasting and suggest strategic directions for operational implementation. Full article

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) has been innovated with a series of models in the last two decades, ranging from traditional statistical approaches to RNN-based models. However, recent contributions from deep learning to time series problems have made huge progress with a series of Transformer-based models. Despite the breakthroughs by attention mechanisms applied to deep learning areas, many challenges remain to be solved with more sophisticated models. Existing Transformers known as attention-based models outperform classical models with abilities to capture temporal dependencies and better strategies for learning dependencies among variables as well as in the time domain in an efficient manner. Aiming to solve those issues, we propose a novel Transformer—SegmentedCrossformer (SCF), a Transformer-based model that considers both time and dependencies among variables in an efficient manner. The model is built upon the encoder–decoder architecture in different scales and compared with the previous state of the art. Experimental results on different datasets show the effectiveness of SCF with unique advantages and efficiency. Full article

Machine learning modeling is a valuable tool for gap-filling or prediction, and its performance is typically evaluated using standard metrics. To enable more precise assessments for time-series data, this study emphasizes the importance of considering time-series consistency, which can be evaluated through amplitude—specifically, the interquartile range and the lower bound of the band in gap-filled time series. To test this hypothesis, a gap-filling technique was applied using long-term (~6 years) high-frequency flux and meteorological data collected at four different levels (1.5, 60, 140, and 300 m above sea level) on a ~300 m tall flux tower. This study focused on turbulent kinetic energy among several variables, which is important for estimating sensible and latent heat fluxes and net ecosystem exchange. Five ensemble machine learning algorithms were selected and trained on three different datasets. Among several modeling scenarios, the stacking model with a dataset combined with derivative data produced the best metrics for predicting turbulent kinetic energy. Although the metrics before and after gap-filling reported fewer differences among the scenarios, large distortions were found in the consistency of the time series in terms of amplitude. These findings underscore the importance of evaluating time-series consistency alongside traditional metrics, not only to accurately assess modeling performance but also to ensure reliability in downstream applications such as forecasting, climate modeling, and energy estimation. Full article

Relict fern species, confined to microhabitats with stable historical conditions, are especially vulnerable to climate change. The Alboran Arc hosts a unique relict fern flora, including Culcita macrocarpa, Diplazium caudatum, and Pteris incompleta, and functions as a major Pleistocene refuge. This study assesses the population trends and climate sensitivity of these species in Los Alcornocales Natural Park using annual abundance time series for a decade, empirical survival projections, and principal component analysis to identify key climatic drivers. Results reveal distinct climate response clusters among populations, though intra-specific variation highlights the importance of local conditions. Climate change is already impacting population viability, especially for P. incompleta, which shows high sensitivity to rising maximum temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. Climate-driven models forecast more severe declines than empirical ones, particularly for C. macrocarpa and P. incompleta, with the latter showing a projected collapse by the mid-century. In contrast, D. caudatum exhibits moderate vulnerability. Crucially, the divergence between models underscores the impact of conservation efforts: without reinforcement and reintroduction actions, projected declines would likely be more severe. These results project a decline in the populations of the studied ferns, highlighting the urgent need to continue implementing both in situ and ex situ conservation measures. Full article

Accurately predicting how quickly people will adopt electric vehicles (EVs) is vital for planning charging stations, managing supply chains, and shaping climate policy. We present a forecasting model that uses three separate Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) branches—one for past EV sales, one for infrastructure and policy signals, and one for economic trends. An attention mechanism first highlights the most important weeks in each branch, then decides which branch matters most at any point in time. Trained end-to-end on publicly available data, the model beats traditional statistical methods and newer deep learning baselines while remaining small enough to run efficiently. An ablation study shows that every branch and both attention steps improve accuracy, and that adding policy and economic data helps more than relying on EV history alone. Because the network is modular and its attention weights are easy to interpret, it can be extended to produce confidence intervals, include physical constraints, or forecast adoption of other clean-energy technologies. Full article

The highly stochastic nature of rainfall presents significant challenges for the accurate prediction of its time series. To enhance the prediction performance of non-stationary rainfall time series, this study proposes a hybrid deep learning forecasting framework—VMD-IWMA-BiLSTM—that integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Improved Whale Migration Algorithm (IWMA), and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network (BiLSTM). Firstly, VMD is employed to decompose the original rainfall series into multiple modes, extracting Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) with more stable frequency characteristics. Secondly, IWMA is utilized to globally optimize multiple hyperparameters of the BiLSTM model, enhancing its ability to capture complex nonlinear relationships and long-term dependencies. Finally, experimental validation is conducted using daily rainfall data from 2020 to 2024 at the Xinzheng National Meteorological Observatory. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms traditional models such as LSTM, ARIMA, SVM, and LSSVM in terms of prediction accuracy. This research provides new insights and effective technical pathways for improving rainfall time series prediction accuracy and addressing the challenges posed by high randomness. Full article

Financial market forecasting remains challenging due to complex nonlinear dynamics and regime-dependent behaviors that traditional models struggle to capture effectively. This research introduces the Adaptive Financial Reservoir Network with Hypernetwork Flow (AFRN–HyperFlow) framework, a novel ensemble architecture integrating Echo State Networks, temporal convolutional networks, mixture density networks, adaptive Hypernetworks, and deep state-space models for enhanced financial time-series prediction. Through comprehensive feature engineering incorporating technical indicators, spectral decomposition, reservoir-based representations, and flow dynamics characteristics, the framework achieves superior forecasting performance across diverse market conditions. Experimental validation on 26,817 balanced samples demonstrates exceptional results with an F1-score of 0.8947, representing a 12.3% improvement over State-of-the-Art baseline methods, while maintaining robust performance across asset classes from equities to cryptocurrencies. The adaptive Hypernetwork mechanism enables real-time regime-change detection with 2.3 days average lag and 95% accuracy, while systematic SHAP analysis provides comprehensive interpretability essential for regulatory compliance. Ablation studies reveal Echo State Networks contribute 9.47% performance improvement, validating the architectural design. The AFRN–HyperFlow framework addresses critical limitations in uncertainty quantification, regime adaptability, and interpretability, offering promising directions for next-generation financial forecasting systems incorporating quantum computing and federated learning approaches. Full article

Amidst the escalating demand for high-precision structural health monitoring in large-scale engineering applications, carbon fiber-reinforced polymer fiber Bragg grating (CFRP-FBG) sensors have emerged as a pivotal technology for fatigue life evaluation, owing to their exceptional sensitivity and intrinsic immunity to electromagnetic interference. A time-series predictive architecture based on long short-term memory (LSTM) networks is developed in this work to facilitate intelligent fatigue life assessment of structures subjected to complex cyclic loading by capturing and modeling critical spectral characteristics of CFRP-FBG sensors, specifically the side-mode suppression ratio and main-lobe peak-to-valley ratio. To enhance model robustness and generalization, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to isolate the most salient spectral features, followed by data preprocessing via normalization and model optimization through the integration of the Adam optimizer and Dropout regularization strategy. Relative to conventional Backpropagation (BP) neural networks, the LSTM model demonstrated a substantial improvement in predicting the side-mode suppression ratio, achieving a 61.62% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) and a 34.99% decrease in root mean squared error (RMSE), thereby markedly enhancing robustness to outliers and ensuring greater overall prediction stability. In predicting the peak-to-valley ratio, the model attained a notable 24.9% decrease in mean absolute error (MAE) and a 21.2% reduction in root mean squared error (RMSE), thereby substantially curtailing localized inaccuracies. The forecasted confidence intervals were correspondingly narrower and exhibited diminished fluctuation, highlighting the LSTM architecture’s enhanced proficiency in capturing nonlinear dynamics and modeling temporal dependencies. The proposed method manifests considerable practical engineering relevance and delivers resilient intelligent assistance for the seamless implementation of CFRP-FBG sensor technology in structural health monitoring and fatigue life prognostics. Full article

In recent years, Transformer-based methods have shown full potential in power load forecasting problems. However, their computational cost is high, while it is difficult to capture the global characteristics of the time series. When the forecasting time length is long, the overall shift of the forecasting trend often occurs. Therefore, this paper proposes a gray relation analysis–frequency-enhanced decomposition transformer (GRA-FEDformer) method for forecasting power loads in power systems. Firstly, considering the impact of different weather factors on power loads, the correlation between various factors and power loads was analyzed using the GRA method to screen out the high-correlation factors as model inputs. Secondly, a frequency decomposition method for long short-time-scale components was utilized. Its combination with the transformer-based model can give the deep learning model an ability to simultaneously capture the fluctuating behavior of the short time scale and the overall trend of changes in the long time scale in power loads. The experimental results show that the proposed method had better forecasting performance than the other methods for a one-year dataset in a region of Morocco. In particular, the advantages of the proposed method were more obvious in the forecasting task with a longer forecasting length. Full article

Wind power output sequences exhibit strong randomness and intermittency characteristics; traditional single forecasting models struggle to capture the internal features of sequences and are highly susceptible to interference from high-frequency noise and predictive accuracy is still notably poor at the peaks where the power curve undergoes abrupt changes. To address the poor fitting at peaks, a short-term wind power forecasting method based on the improved Informer model is proposed. First, the temporal convolutional network (TCN) is introduced to enhance the model’s ability to capture regional segment features along the temporal dimension, enhancing the model’s receptive field to address wind power fluctuation under varying environmental conditions. Next, a discrete cosine transform (DCT) is employed for adaptive modeling of frequency dependencies between channels, converting the time series data into frequency domain representations to extract its frequency features. These frequency domain features are then weighted using a channel attention mechanism to improve the model’s ability to capture peak features and resist noise interference. Finally, the Informer generative decoder is used to output the power prediction results, this enables the model to simultaneously leverage neighboring temporal segment features and long-range inter-temporal dependencies for future wind-power prediction, thereby substantially improving the fitting accuracy at power-curve peaks. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model; compared with other models, the proposed approach reduces MAE by 9.14–42.31% and RMSE by 12.57–47.59%. Full article

Accurate prediction of landslide-induced displacement is essential for the structural integrity and operational safety of buildings and infrastructure situated in geologically unstable regions. This study introduces a novel hybrid predictive framework that synergistically integrates Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with Temporal Convolutional Neural Networks (TCNs), herein referred to as the GTCN model, to forecast displacement at building monitoring points subject to landslide activity. The proposed methodology is validated using time-series monitoring data collected from the slope adjacent to the Zhongliang Reservoir in Wuxi County, Chongqing, an area where slope instability poses a significant threat to nearby structural assets. Experimental results demonstrate the GTCN model’s superior predictive performance, particularly under challenging conditions of incomplete or sparsely sampled data. The model proves highly effective in accurately characterizing both abrupt fluctuations within the displacement time series and capturing long-term deformation trends. Furthermore, the GTCN framework outperforms comparative hybrid models based on Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and GPR, with its advantage being especially pronounced in data-limited scenarios. It also exhibits enhanced capability for temporal feature extraction relative to conventional imputation-based forecasting strategies like forward-filling. By effectively modeling both nonlinear trends and uncertainty within displacement sequences, the GTCN framework offers a robust and scalable solution for landslide-related risk assessment and early warning applications. Its applicability to building safety monitoring underscores its potential contribution to geotechnical hazard mitigation and resilient infrastructure management. Full article

This study introduces a robust global time-series forecasting model developed to estimate CO₂ emissions across diverse regions worldwide. The model employs a deep learning architecture with multiple hidden layers, ensuring both high predictive accuracy and temporal stability. Our methodology integrates innovative training strategies and advanced optimization techniques to effectively handle heterogeneous time-series data. Emphasis is placed on the critical role of accurate and stable forecasts in supporting evidence-based policy-making and promoting environmental sustainability. This work contributes to global efforts to monitor and mitigate climate change, in alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Full article

The Panama Canal, inaugurated in 1914, continues to play a pivotal role in global maritime connectivity. In 2016, the Canal underwent a significant expansion, reshaping maritime transit by accommodating larger vessels and reinforcing its strategic importance in international trade. The objective of this study is to identify a suitable time series statistical model to forecast the number of vessels transiting the Panama Canal. The three approaches employed were the following: the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, the Holt–Winters (HW) exponential smoothing method, and the Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) model. The models were compared based on forecasting errors to evaluate their predictive accuracy. Overall, the NNAR model exhibited slightly better predictive performance than the SARIMA (1,0,1) (0,1,1) model in terms of error, with both outperforming the Holt–Winters model by a significant margin. Full article