Search Results (2,147)

This study investigates the seasonal effectiveness of high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) purifiers and window-opening behaviors in three London nurseries, using continuous indoor and outdoor PM_2.5 monitoring, window state and air purifier use, and occupant questionnaire data collected from March 2021 to February 2022. Of the approximately 40–50 nurseries contacted, only three agreed to participate. Results show that HEPA purifiers substantially reduced indoor particulate matter (PM_2.5), with the greatest effect observed during the heating season when windows remained closed for longer periods. Seasonal and behavioral analysis indicated more frequent and longer window opening in the non-heating season (windows were open 41.5% of the time on average, compared to 34.2% during the heating season) driven by both ventilation needs and heightened COVID-19 concerns. Predictive modeling identified indoor temperature as the main driver of window opening, while carbon dioxide (CO₂) had a limited effect. In addition, window opening often increased indoor PM_2.5 under prevailing outdoor air quality conditions, with mean concentrations rising from 2.73 µg/m³ (closed) to 3.45 µg/m³ (open), thus reducing the apparent benefit of air purifiers. These findings underscore the complex interplay between mechanical purification and occupant-controlled ventilation, highlighting the need to adapt indoor air quality (IAQ) strategies to both seasonal and behavioral factors in educational settings. Full article

In this study, we consider monthly load forecasting, which is an essential decision for energy infrastructure planning and investment. This study focuses on the Texas power grid, where electricity consumption has surged due to rising industrial activity and the increased construction of data centers driven by growing demand for AI. Based on an extensive exploratory data analysis, we identify key characteristics of monthly electricity demand in Texas, including an accelerating upward trend, strong seasonality, and temperature sensitivity. In response, we propose a regression-based forecasting model that incorporates a carefully designed set of input features, including a nonlinear trend, lagged demand variables, a seasonality-adjusted month variable, average temperature of a representative area, and calendar-based proxies for industrial activity. We adopt a rolling forecasting approach, generating 12-month-ahead forecasts for both 2023 and 2024 using monthly data from 2013 onward. Comparative experiments against benchmarks including Holt–Winters, SARIMA, Prophet, RNN, LSTM, Transformer, Random Forest, LightGBM, and XGBoost show that the proposed model achieves superior performance with a mean absolute percentage error of approximately 2%. The results indicate that a well-designed regression approach can effectively outperform even the latest machine learning methods in monthly load forecasting. Full article

Climate change is disrupting marine ecosystems, necessitating a deeper understanding of environmental and fishing-related impacts on exploited species. This study examines the effects of physical factors (temperature, thermal anomalies, salinity, seabed conditions), biogeochemical elements (pH, oxygen levels, nutrients, primary production), and fishing pressure on the biomass of commercially important species in the Alboran Sea from 1999 to 2022. Data were sourced from the Copernicus observational program, focusing on the geographical sub-area 1 (GSA-1) zone across three depth ranges. Generalized Additive Models were applied for analysis. Rising temperatures and seasonal anomalies have largely negative effects, disrupting species’ physiological balance. Changes in water quality, including improved nutrient and oxygen concentrations, have yielded complex ecological responses. Fishing indices highlight the vulnerability of small pelagic fish to climate change and overfishing, underscoring their economic and ecological significance. These findings stress the urgent need for ecosystem-based management strategies that integrate climate change impacts to ensure sustainable marine resource management. Full article

Produce supply chains play a critical role in ensuring fruits and vegetables reach consumers efficiently, affordably, and at optimal freshness. In recent decades, hub-and-spoke network models have emerged as valuable tools for optimizing sustainable cold food supply chains. Traditional optimization efforts typically focus on removing inefficiencies, minimizing lead times, refining inventory management, strengthening supplier relationships, and leveraging technological advancements for better visibility and control. However, the majority of models rely on deterministic approaches that overlook the inherent uncertainties of crop yields, which are further intensified by climate variability. Rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, along with shifting temperature patterns and extreme weather events, have a substantial effect on crop productivity and availability. Such uncertainties can prompt distributors to seek alternative sources, increasing costs due to supply chain reconfiguration. This research introduces a stochastic hub-and-spoke network optimization model specifically designed to minimize transportation expenses by determining optimal distribution routes that explicitly account for climate variability effects on crop yields. A use case involving a cold food supply chain (CFSC) was carried out using several weather scenarios based on climate models and real soil data for California. Strawberries were selected as a representative crop, given California’s leading role in strawberry production. Simulation results show that scenarios characterized by increased rainfall during growing seasons result in increased yields, allowing distributors to reduce transportation costs by sourcing from nearby farms. Conversely, scenarios with reduced rainfall and lower yields require sourcing from more distant locations, thereby increasing transportation costs. Nonetheless, supply chain configurations may vary depending on the choice of climate models or weather prediction sources, highlighting the importance of regularly updating scenario inputs to ensure robust planning. This tool aids decision-making by planning climate-resilient supply chains, enhancing preparedness and responsiveness to future climate-related disruptions. Full article

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) numerical simulation methodology was implemented to model transient heating processes in steel industry reheating furnaces, targeting combustion efficiency optimization and carbon emission reduction. The effects of oxygen concentration (O₂%) and different fuel types on the flow and heat transfer characteristics were investigated under both oxygen-enriched combustion and MILD oxy-fuel combustion. The results indicate that MILD oxy-fuel combustion promotes flue gas entrainment via high-velocity oxygen jets, leading to a substantial improvement in the uniformity of the furnace temperature field. The effect is most obvious at O₂% = 31%. MILD oxy-fuel combustion significantly reduces NOx emissions, achieving levels that are one to two orders of magnitude lower than those under oxygen-enriched combustion. Under MILD conditions, the oxygen mass fraction in flue gas remains below 0.001 when O₂% ≤ 81%, indicating effective dilution. In contrast, oxygen-enriched combustion leads to a sharp rise in flame temperature with an increasing oxygen concentration, resulting in a significant increase in NOx emissions. Elevating the oxygen concentration enhances both thermal efficiency and the energy-saving rate for both combustion modes; however, the rate of improvement diminishes when O₂% exceeds 51%. Based on these findings, MILD oxy-fuel combustion using mixed gas or natural gas is recommended for reheating furnaces operating at O₂% = 51–71%, while coke oven gas is not. Full article

Oil spill simulation models are essential for predicting the oil spill behavior and movement in marine environments. In this study, we comprehensively reviewed a large and diverse body of peer-reviewed literature obtained from Scopus and Web of Science. Our initial analysis phase focused on examining trends in scientific publications, utilizing the complete dataset derived after systematic screening and database integration. In the second phase, we applied elements of a systematic review to identify and evaluate the most influential contributions in the scientific field of oil spill simulations. Our analysis revealed a steady and accelerating growth of research activity over the past five decades, with a particularly notable expansion in the last two. The field has also experienced a marked increase in collaborative practices, including a rise in international co-authorship and multi-authored contributions, reflecting a more global and interdisciplinary research landscape. We cataloged the key modeling frameworks that have shaped the field from established systems such as OSCAR, OIL-MAP/SIMAP, and GNOME to emerging hybrid and Lagrangian approaches. Hydrodynamic models were consistently central, often integrated with biogeochemical, wave, atmospheric, and oil-spill-specific modules. Environmental variables such as wind, ocean currents, and temperature were frequently used to drive model behavior. Geographically, research has concentrated on ecologically and economically sensitive coastal and marine regions. We conclude that future progress will rely on the real-time integration of high-resolution environmental data streams, the development of machine-learning-based surrogate models to accelerate computations, and the incorporation of advanced biodegradation and weathering mechanisms supported by experimental data. These advancements are expected to enhance the accuracy, responsiveness, and operational value of oil spill modeling tools, supporting environmental monitoring and emergency response. Full article

This study investigates the effectiveness of passive design in low-rise residential buildings located in arid desert climates, using the Dubai Solar Decathlon Middle East (SDME) competition as a case study. This full-scale experiment offers a unique opportunity to evaluate design solutions under controlled, realistic conditions; prescriptive, modeled performance; and monitored performance assessments. The prescriptive assessment reviews geometry, orientation, envelope thermal properties, and shading. Most houses adopt compact forms, with envelope-to-volume and envelope-to-floor area ratios averaging 1 and 3.7, respectively, and window-to-wall ratios of approximately 17%, favoring north-facing openings to optimize daylight while reducing heat gain. Shading is strategically applied, horizontal on south façades and vertical on east and west. The thermal properties significantly exceed the local code requirements, with wall performance up to 80% better than that mandated. The modeled assessment uses Building Energy Models (BEMs) to simulate the impact of prescriptive measures on energy performance. Three variations are applied: assigning minimum local code requirements to all the houses to isolate the geometry (baseline); removing shading; and applying actual envelope properties. Geometry alone accounts for up to 60% of the variation in cooling intensity; shading reduces loads by 6.5%, and enhanced envelopes lower demand by 14%. The monitored assessment uses contest-period data. Indoor temperatures remain stable (22–25 °C) despite outdoor fluctuations. Energy use confirms that houses with good designs and airtightness have lower cooling loads. Airtightness varies widely (avg. 14.5 m³/h/m²), with some well-designed houses underperforming due to construction flaws. These findings highlight the critical role of passive design as the first layer for improving the energy performance of the built environment and advancing toward net-zero targets, specifically in arid desert climates. Full article

Relict fern species, confined to microhabitats with stable historical conditions, are especially vulnerable to climate change. The Alboran Arc hosts a unique relict fern flora, including Culcita macrocarpa, Diplazium caudatum, and Pteris incompleta, and functions as a major Pleistocene refuge. This study assesses the population trends and climate sensitivity of these species in Los Alcornocales Natural Park using annual abundance time series for a decade, empirical survival projections, and principal component analysis to identify key climatic drivers. Results reveal distinct climate response clusters among populations, though intra-specific variation highlights the importance of local conditions. Climate change is already impacting population viability, especially for P. incompleta, which shows high sensitivity to rising maximum temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. Climate-driven models forecast more severe declines than empirical ones, particularly for C. macrocarpa and P. incompleta, with the latter showing a projected collapse by the mid-century. In contrast, D. caudatum exhibits moderate vulnerability. Crucially, the divergence between models underscores the impact of conservation efforts: without reinforcement and reintroduction actions, projected declines would likely be more severe. These results project a decline in the populations of the studied ferns, highlighting the urgent need to continue implementing both in situ and ex situ conservation measures. Full article

The growth of urban and industrial areas is accompanied by an increase in vehicle traffic, resulting in rising concentrations of various air pollutants. This is a global issue that causes environmental damage and risks to human health. The dataset presented in this research contains records with measurements of the air pollutants ozone (O₃) and carbon monoxide (CO), as well as meteorological parameters such as temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), and barometric pressure (BP). This dataset was collected using a set of low-cost sensors over a four-month study period (March to June) in 2024. The monitoring of air pollutants and meteorological parameters was conducted in a city with high industrial activity, heavy traffic, and close proximity to a petrochemical refinery plant. The data were subjected to a series of statistical analyses for visualization using plots that allow for the identification of their behavior. Finally, the dataset can be utilized for air quality studies, public health research, and the development of prediction models based on mathematical approaches or artificial intelligence algorithms. Full article

Understanding alpine plants’ survival and reproduction is crucial for their conservation in climate change. Based on 423 valid distribution points, this study utilizes the MaxEnt model to predict the potential habitat and distribution dynamics of Leontopodium nanum under both current and future climate scenarios, while clarifying the key factors that influence its distribution. The primary ecological drivers of distribution are altitude (2886.08 m–5576.14 m) and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (−6.60–1.55 °C). Currently, the suitable habitat area is approximately 520.28 × 10⁴ km², covering about 3.5% of the global land area, concentrated mainly in the Tibetan Plateau, with smaller regions across East and South Asia. Under future climate scenarios, low-emission (SSP126), suitable areas are projected to expand during the 2050s and 2070s. High-emission (SSP585), suitable areas may decrease by 50%, with a 66.07% reduction in highly suitable areas by the 2070s. The greatest losses are expected in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau. Regarding dynamic habitat changes, by the 2050s, newly suitable areas will account for 51.09% of the current habitat, while 68.26% of existing habitat will become unsuitable. By the 2070s, newly suitable areas will rise to 71.86% of the current total, but the loss of existing areas will exceed these gains, particularly under the high-emission scenario. The centroid of suitable habitats is expected to shift northward, with migration distances ranging from 23.94 km to 342.42 km. The most significant shift is anticipated under the SSP126 scenario by the 2070s. This study offers valuable insights into the distribution dynamics of L. nanum and other alpine species under the context of climate change. From a conservation perspective, it is recommended to prioritize the protection and restoration of vegetation in key habitat patches or potential migration corridors, restrict overgrazing and infrastructure development, and maintain genetic diversity and dispersal capacity through assisted migration and population genetic monitoring when necessary. These measures aim to provide a robust scientific foundation for the comprehensive conservation and sustainable management of the grassland ecosystem on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Full article

Deep marine shale is the primary carrier of shale gas resources in Southwestern China. Because the occurrence and gas content of methane vary with burial conditions, understanding the microscopic mechanism of methane occurrence in deep marine shale is critical for effective shale gas exploitation. The temperature and pressure conditions in deep shale exceed the operating limits of experimental equipment; thus, few studies have discussed the microscopic occurrence mechanism of shale gas in deep marine shale. This study applies molecular simulation technology to reveal the methane’s microscopic occurrence mechanism, particularly the main controlling factor of adsorbed methane in deep marine shale. Two types of simulation models are also proposed. The Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) method is used to simulate the adsorption behavior of methane molecules in these two models. The results indicate that the isosteric adsorption heat of methane in both models is below 42 kJ/mol, suggesting that methane adsorption in deep shale is physical adsorption. Adsorbed methane concentrates on the pore wall surface and forms a double-layer adsorption. Furthermore, adsorbed methane can transition to single-layer adsorption if the pore size is less than 1.6 nm. The total adsorption capacity increases with rising pressure, although the growth rate decreases. Excess adsorption capacity is highly sensitive to pressure and can become negative at high pressures. Methane adsorption capacity is determined by pore size and adsorption potential, while accommodation space and adsorption potential are influenced by pore size and mineral type. Under deep marine shale reservoir burial conditions, with burial depth deepening, the effect of temperature on shale gas occurrence is weaker than pressure. Higher temperatures inhibit shale gas occurrence, and high pressure enhances shale gas preservation. Smaller pores facilitate the occurrence of adsorbed methane, and larger pores have larger total methane adsorption capacity. Deep marine shale with high formation pressure and high clay mineral content is conducive to the microscopic accumulation of shale gas in deep marine shale reservoirs. This study discusses the microscopic occurrence state of deep marine shale gas and provides a reference for the exploration and development of deep shale gas. Full article

To address the freezing damage to tunnel lining caused by frost heaving of the surrounding rock in water-rich tunnels in cold regions, a numerical thermo-mechanical coupling model for tunnel-surrounding rock that considers the anisotropy of frost heave deformation was established by examining overall frost heaves in a freeze–thaw cycle. Using a COMSOL Multiphysics 6.0 platform and the sequential coupling method, the temperature field evolution of tunnel-surrounding rock, freezing cycle development, and distribution characteristics of the frost heaving force of a tunnel lining under different minimum temperatures, numbers of negative temperature days, frost heave ratios, and anisotropy coefficients of frost heave deformation were systematically simulated. The results revealed that the response of the temperature field of tunnel-surrounding rock to the external temperature varies spatially with time lags, the shallow surface temperatures and the area around the lining fluctuate with the climate, and the temperature of the deep surrounding rock is dominated by the geothermal gradient. The extent of the freezing cycle and the frost heaving force increase significantly when lowering the minimum temperature. The maximum frost heaving force usually occurs in the region of the side wall and the spring line, and tensile stress is prone to be generated at the spring line; the influence of slight fluctuations in the minimum temperature or the short shift in the coldest day on the frost heaving force is limited. A substantial increase in frost heaving force is observed with higher frost heave ratios; for example, an increase from 0.25% to 2.0% results in a 116% rise at the sidewall. Although the increase in the anisotropy coefficient of frost heave deformation does not change the overall distribution pattern of frost heaving force, it can exacerbate the directional concentration of frost heave strain, which can increase the frost heaving force at the periphery of the top arch of the lining. This study revealed the distribution pattern and key influencing factors of the freezing cycle and frost heaving force for tunnels, providing a theoretical basis and data reference for the frost resistance design of tunnels in cold regions. Full article

In order to study the problem of obvious wall thinning in the wellbore caused by proppant backflow and sand production under throttling conditions in tight gas wells. Based on the gas-phase control equation, particle motion equation, and erosion model, the wellbore erosion model is established. The distribution law of pressure, temperature, and velocity trace fields under throttling conditions is analyzed, and the influences of different throttling pressures, particle diameters, and particle mass flows on wellbore erosion are analyzed. The flow field at the nozzle changes drastically, and there is an obvious pressure drop, temperature drop, and velocity rise. When the surrounding gas is completely mixed, the physical quantity gradually stabilizes. The erosion shape of the wellbore outlet wall has a point-like distribution. The closer to the throttle valve outlet, the more intense the erosion point distribution is. Increasing the inlet pressure and particle mass flow rate will increase the maximum erosion rate, and increasing the particle diameter will reduce the maximum erosion rate. The particle mass flow rate has the greatest impact on the maximum erosion rate, followed by the particle diameter. The erosion trend was predicted using multiple regression model fitting of the linear interaction term. The research results can provide a reference for the application of downhole throttling technology and wellbore integrity in tight gas exploitation. Full article

Effective postharvest cooling of olive fruit is increasingly critical under rising harvest temperatures driven by climate change. This study models passive cooling dynamics using a trait-based, mixed-effects statistical framework. Ten olive groups—representing seven cultivars and different ripening or size stages—were subjected to controlled cooling conditions. Surface temperature was recorded using infrared thermal imaging, and morphological and compositional traits were quantified. Temperature decay was modeled using Newton’s Law of Cooling, extended with a quadratic time term to capture nonlinear trajse thectories. A linear mixed-effects model was fitted to log-transformed, normalized temperature data, incorporating trait-by-time interactions and hierarchical random effects. The results confirmed that fruit weight, specific surface area (SSA), and specific heat capacity (SHC) are key drivers of cooling rate variability, consistent with theoretical expectations, but quantified here using a trait-based statistical model applied to olive fruit. The quadratic model consistently outperformed standard exponential models, revealing dynamic effects of traits on temperature decline. Residual variation at the group level pointed to additional unmeasured structural influences. This study demonstrates that olive fruit cooling behavior can be effectively predicted using interpretable, trait-dependent models. The findings offer a quantitative basis for optimizing postharvest cooling protocols and are particularly relevant for maintaining quality under high-temperature harvest conditions. Full article

The design of aircraft electrical wiring interconnection systems (EWISs) is central to ensuring the safe and reliable operation of aircraft. The calculation of the temperature rise characteristics of aircraft wire harnesses is one of the key technologies in EWIS design, directly affecting the safety margin of the system. However, existing calculation methods generally face a bottleneck in the balance between speed and accuracy, failing to meet the requirements of actual engineering applications. In this paper, we conduct an in-depth study on this issue. Firstly, a finite element harness model is established to accurately obtain the convective heat transfer coefficients of wires and harnesses. Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of the thermal network model for a single wire, an improved thermal resistance hierarchical wire thermal network model is proposed. A structure consisting of series thermal resistance within layers and iterative parallel algorithms between layers is proposed to equivalently integrate and iteratively calculate the mutual thermal influence relationship between each layer of the harness, thereby constructing a hierarchical harness thermal network model. This model successfully achieves a significant improvement in calculation speed while effectively ensuring useable temperature rise results, providing an effective method for EWIS design. Full article