Search Results (152)

In recent years, large-scale linear infrastructure developments have been developed across hundreds of kilometers of permafrost regions on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The implementation of major engineering projects, including the Qinghai–Tibet Highway, oil pipelines, communication cables, and the Qinghai–Tibet Railway, has spurred intensified research into permafrost dynamics. Climate warming has accelerated permafrost degradation, leading to a range of geological hazards, most notably widespread thermokarst landslides. This study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution patterns and influencing factors of thermokarst landslides in Qinghai Province through an integrated approach combining field surveys, remote sensing interpretation, and statistical analysis. The study utilized multi-source datasets, including Landsat-8 imagery, Google Earth, GF-1, and ZY-3 satellite data, supplemented by meteorological records and geospatial information. The remote sensing interpretation identified 1208 cryogenic hazards in Qinghai’s permafrost regions, comprising 273 coarse-grained soil landslides, 346 fine-grained soil landslides, 146 thermokarst slope failures, 440 gelifluction flows, and 3 frost mounds. Spatial analysis revealed clusters of hazards in Zhiduo, Qilian, and Qumalai counties, with the Yangtze River Basin and Qilian Mountains showing the highest hazard density. Most hazards occur in seasonally frozen ground areas (3500–3900 m and 4300–4900 m elevation ranges), predominantly on north and northwest-facing slopes with gradients of 10–20°. Notably, hazard frequency decreases with increasing permafrost stability. These findings provide critical insights for the sustainable development of cold-region infrastructure, environmental protection, and hazard mitigation strategies in alpine engineering projects. Full article

Urban and regional ecosystems are increasingly challenged by the compounded effects of climate change and intensive land use. In this study, a predictive assessment framework for ecosystem resilience in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region was developed by integrating multi-source remote sensing data, with the aim of quantitatively evaluating the coupled effects of climate change and land use change on future ecosystem resilience. In the first stage of the study, the SD-PLUS coupled modeling framework was employed to simulate land use patterns for the years 2030 and 2060 under three representative combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Building upon these simulations, ecosystem resilience was comprehensively evaluated and predicted on the basis of three key attributes: resistance, adaptability, and recovery. This enabled a quantitative investigation of the spatio-temporal dynamics of ecosystem resilience under each scenario. The results reveal the following: (1) Temporally, ecosystem resilience exhibited a staged pattern of change. From 2020 to 2030, an increasing trend was observed only under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, whereas, from 2030 to 2060, resilience generally increased in all scenarios. (2) In terms of scenario comparison, ecosystem resilience typically followed a gradient pattern of SSP1-2.6 > SSP2-4.5 > SSP5-8.5. However, in 2060, a notable reversal occurred, with the highest resilience recorded under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. (3) Spatially, areas with high ecosystem resilience were primarily distributed in mountainous regions, while the southeastern plains and coastal zones consistently exhibited lower resilience levels. The results indicate that climate and land use changes jointly influence ecosystem resilience. Rainfall and temperature, as key climate drivers, not only affect land use dynamics but also play a crucial role in regulating ecosystem services and ecological processes. Under extreme scenarios such as SSP5-8.5, these factors may trigger nonlinear responses in ecosystem resilience. Meanwhile, land use restructuring further shapes resilience patterns by altering landscape configurations and recovery mechanisms. Our findings highlight the role of climate and land use in reshaping ecological structure, function, and services. This study offers scientific support for assessing and managing regional ecosystem resilience and informs adaptive urban governance in the face of future climate and land use uncertainty, promotes the sustainable development of ecosystems, and expands the applicability of remote sensing in dynamic ecological monitoring and predictive analysis. Full article

Vegetation is a fundamental component of terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how vegetation changes and what drives these evolutions is crucial for developing a high-quality ecological environment and addressing global climate change. Extensive evidence has shown that China has undergone substantial vegetation changes, characterized primarily by greening. To quantify vegetation dynamics in China and assess the contributions of various drivers, we explored the spatiotemporal variations in the kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) from 2001 to 2020, and quantitatively separated the influences of climate and human factors. The kNDVI time series were generated from the MCD19A1 v061 dataset based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. We employed the Theil-Sen trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, and the Hurst index to analyze the historical patterns and future trajectories of kNDVI. Residual analysis was then applied to determine the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation dynamics across China. The results show that from 2001 to 2020, vegetation in China showed a fluctuating but predominantly increasing trend, with a significant annual kNDVI growth rate of 0.002. The significant greening pattern was observed in over 48% of vegetated areas, exhibiting a clear spatial gradient with lower increases in the northwest and higher amplitudes in the southeast. Moreover, more than 60% of vegetation areas are projected to experience a sustained increase in the future. Residual analysis reveals that climate change contributed 21.89% to vegetation changes, while human activities accounted for 78.11%, being the dominant drivers of vegetation variation. This finding is further supported by partial correlation analysis between kNDVI and temperature, precipitation, and the human footprint. Vegetation dynamics were found to respond more strongly to human influences than to climate drivers, underscoring the leading role of human activities. Further analysis of tree cover fraction and cropping intensity data indicates that the greening in forests and croplands is primarily attributable to large-scale afforestation efforts and improved agricultural management. Full article

Rubber Tree (Hevea brasiliensis) phenology critically influences tropical plantation productivity and carbon cycling, yet topography and climate impacts remain unclear. By integrating multi-sensor remote sensing (2001–2020) and Google Earth Engine, this study analyzed spatiotemporal dynamics in Hainan Island, China. Results reveal that both the start (SOS occurred between early and late March: day of year, DOY 60–81) and end (EOS occurred late January to early February: DOY 392–406, counted from the previous year) of the growing season exhibit progressive delays from the southeast to northwest, yielding a 10–11 month growing season length (LOS). Significantly, LOS extended by 4.9 days per decade (p < 0.01), despite no significant trends in SOS advancement (−1.1 days per decade) or EOS delay (+3.7 days per decade). Topographic modulation was evident: the SOS was delayed by 0.27 days per 100 m elevation rise (p < 0.01), while the EOS was delayed by 0.07 days per 1° slope increase (p < 0.01). Climatically, a 100 mm precipitation increase advanced SOS/EOS by approximately 1.0 day (p < 0.05), preseasonally, a 1 °C February temperature rise advanced the SOS and EOS by 0.49 and 0.53 days, respectively, and a 100 mm January precipitation increase accelerated EOS by 2.7 days (p < 0.01). These findings advance our mechanistic understanding of rubber phenological responses to climate and topographic gradients, providing actionable insights for sustainable plantation management and tropical forest ecosystem adaptation under changing climatic conditions. Full article

As a crucial manifestation of ecosystem water regulation and supply functions, water conservation plays a vital role in regional ecosystem development and sustainable water resource management. This study investigates nine major Chinese river basins (Songliao, Haihe, Huaihe, Yellow, Yangtze, Pearl, Southeast Rivers, Southwest Rivers, and Inland Rivers) through integrated application of the InVEST model and geographical detector model. We systematically examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of water conservation capacity and its driving mechanisms from 1990 to 2020. The results reveal a distinct northwest–southeast spatial gradient in water conservation across China, with lower values predominating in northwestern regions. Minimum conservation values were recorded in the Inland River Basin (15.88 mm), Haihe River Basin (42.07 mm), and Yellow River Basin (43.55 mm), while maximum capacities occurred in the Pearl River Basin (483.68 mm) and Southeast Rivers Basin (517.21 mm). Temporal analysis showed interannual fluctuations, peaking in 2020 at 130.98 mm and reaching its lowest point in 2015 at 113.04 mm. Precipitation emerged as the dominant factor governing spatial patterns, with higher rainfall correlating strongly with enhanced conservation capacity. Land cover analysis revealed superior water retention in vegetated areas (forests, grasslands, and cultivated land) compared to urbanized and bare land surfaces. Our findings demonstrate that water conservation dynamics result from synergistic interactions among multiple factors rather than single-variable influences. Accordingly, we propose that future water resource policies adopt an integrated management approach addressing climate patterns, land use optimization, and socioeconomic factors to develop targeted conservation strategies. Full article

Cyanobacterial blooms and aquatic vegetation dynamics are critical indicators of freshwater ecosystem health, increasingly shaped by climate change, nutrient enrichment, and ecological restoration efforts. Here, we present an automated monitoring system optimized for small- and medium-sized lakes. This system integrates phenology-based algorithms with Sentinel-2 MSI imagery, leveraging the AI Earth (AIE) platform developed by Alibaba DAMO Academy. Applied to monitor 12 ecologically sensitive lakes and reservoirs in Jiangsu Province, China, the system enables multi-year tracking of spatiotemporal changes from 2019 to 2024. A clear north-south gradient in cyanobacterial bloom intensity was observed, with southern lakes exhibiting higher bloom levels. Although bloom intensity decreased in lakes such as Changdang, Yangcheng, and Dianshan, Ge Lake displayed fluctuating patterns. In contrast, ecological restoration efforts in Cheng and Yuandang Lakes led to substantial increases in bloom intensity in 2024, with affected areas reaching 33.16% and 33.11%, respectively. Although bloom intensity remained low in northern lakes, increases were recorded in Hongze, Gaoyou, and Luoma Lakes after 2023, particularly in Hongze Lake, where bloom coverage surged to 3.29% in 2024. Aquatic vegetation dynamics displayed contrasting trends. In southern lakes—particularly Cheng, Dianshan, Yuandang, and Changdang Lakes—vegetation coverage significantly increased, with Changdang Lake reaching 44.56% in 2024. In contrast, northern lakes, including Gaoyou, Luoma, and Hongze, experienced a long-term decline in vegetation coverage. By 2024, compared to 2019, coverage in Gaoyou, Luoma, and Hongze Lakes decreased by 11.28%, 16.02%, and 47.32%, respectively. These declines are likely linked to increased grazing pressure following fishing bans, which may have disrupted vegetation dynamics and reduced their ability to suppress cyanobacterial blooms. These findings provide quantitative evidence supporting adaptive lake restoration strategies and underscore the effectiveness of satellite-based phenological monitoring in assessing freshwater ecosystem health. Full article

Against the backdrop of global climate change and rapid urbanization, understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is critical for ensuring regional ecological security and achieving carbon neutrality goals. This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration (YRDUA) and integrates multi-source remote sensing data with socioeconomic statistics. By combining interpretable machine learning (XGBoost-SHAP) with multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), and incorporating Theil–Sen trend analysis and Mann–Kendall significance testing, we systematically analyze the spatiotemporal variations in NPP and its multiscale driving mechanisms from 2001 to 2020. The results reveal the following: (1) Total NPP in the YRDUA shows an increasing trend, with approximately 24.83% of the region experiencing a significant rise and only 2.75% showing a significant decline, indicating continuous improvement in regional ecological conditions. (2) Land use change resulted in a net NPP loss of 2.67 TgC, yet ecological restoration and advances in agricultural technology effectively mitigated negative impacts and became the main contributors to NPP growth. (3) The results from XGBoost and MGWR are complementary, highlighting the scale-dependent effects of driving factors—at the regional scale, natural factors such as elevation (DEM), precipitation (PRE), and vegetation cover (VFC) have positive impacts on NPP, while the human footprint (HF) generally exerts a negative effect. However, in certain areas, a dose–response effect is observed, in which moderate human intervention can enhance ecological functions. (4) The spatial heterogeneity of NPP is mainly driven by nonlinear interactions between natural and anthropogenic factors. Notably, the interaction between DEM and climatic variables exhibits threshold responses and a “spatial gradient–factor interaction” mechanism, where the same driver may have opposite effects under different geomorphic conditions. Therefore, a well-balanced combination of land use transformation and ecological conservation policies is crucial for enhancing regional ecological functions and NPP. These findings provide scientific support for ecological management and the formulation of sustainable development strategies in urban agglomerations. Full article

Understanding the interplay between climate change, landscape patterns, and carbon sequestration is critical for sustainable ecosystem management. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and landscape patterns in Inner Mongolia, China, from 2000 to 2020, and evaluates their implications for carbon sink capacity under climate change. Using remote sensing data, meteorological records, and landscape metrics (CONTAG, SPLIT, IJI), we quantified the relationships between vegetation productivity, landscape connectivity, and fragmentation. Results reveal a northeast-to-southwest gradient in NPP, with high values concentrated in forested regions of the Greater Khingan Range and low values in arid western deserts. Over two decades, NPP increased by 73% in high-productivity zones, driven by rising temperatures and ecological restoration policies. Landscape aggregation (CONTAG) and patch connectivity showed strong positive correlations with NPP, while higher fragmentation values (SPLIT, IJI) negatively impacted carbon sequestration. Climate factors, particularly precipitation variability, emerged as critical drivers of NPP fluctuations, with human activities amplifying regional disparities. We propose targeted strategies—enhancing landscape connectivity, regional differentiation management, and optimizing patch structure—to bolster climate-resilient carbon sinks. These findings underscore the necessity of integrating climate-adaptive landscape planning into regional carbon neutrality frameworks, offering feasible alternatives for mitigating climate impacts in ecologically vulnerable regions. Full article

Improving forest carbon sink efficiency (FCSE) is the key to mitigating climate change and achieving sustainable forest resource management in China. However, current research on FCSE remains predominantly focused on static perspectives and singular linear effects. Based on panel data from 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2008 to 2022, this study integrated the super-efficiency Slack-Based Measure (SBM)-Malmquist–Luenberger (ML) model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and dynamic fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to reveal the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of FCSE and the multi-factor synergistic driving mechanism. The results showed that (1) the average value of the FCSE in China was 1.1. Technological progress (with an average technological change of 1.21) is the core growth driver, but the imbalance of technological efficiency change (EC) among regions restricts long-term sustainability. (2) The spatial distribution exhibited a U-shaped gradient pattern of “eastern—southwestern”, and the synergy effect between nature and economy is significant. (3) The dynamic fsQCA identified three sustainable improvement paths: the “precipitation–economy” collaborative type, the multi-factor co-creation type, and “precipitation–industry-driven” type; precipitation was the universal core condition. (4) Regional differences exist in path application; the eastern part depends on economic coordination, the central part is suitable for industry driving, and the western part requires multi-factor linkage. By introducing a dynamic configuration perspective, analyzing FCSE’s spatiotemporal drivers. We propose a sustainable ‘Nature–Society–Management’ interaction framework and region-specific policy strategies, offering both theoretical and practical tools for sustainable forestry policy design. Full article

Grassland productivity is crucial for sustainable alpine livestock farming, yet the combined effects of climate change and topography remain unclear. Using long-term time series data of grassland NPP derived from Landsat imagery, along with meteorological and DEM data, this study employed correlation analysis and SEM to quantify climate-driven grassland NPP dynamics and topography-mediated regulatory effects in the Three-River Headwaters Region between 1990 and 2020. Significant spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland NPP were found in response to climate change over the past thirty years. Grassland NPP declined before 1994 and then grew significantly after 1995 at an average rate of 0.88 gC·m⁻²·a⁻¹ (p < 0.01). Spatially, NPP increased in 69% of the region, with significant and highly significant growth in 9.5% (p < 0.05) and 35.7% (p < 0.01), mainly in the southeast. Driven by general warming and wetting, topographic modulation of hydrothermal conditions had intensified a mismatch in both time and space between grassland NPP and climate change, particularly in temperature sensitivity. The positive effect of temperature on NPP shifted to higher elevations (4000–5000 m) and lower slopes (5–25°), with NPP at higher elevations exhibiting greater sensitivity to temperature changes. However, the most substantial contributions to the overall rise in NPP occurred at altitudes of 3000–4000 m and slopes of 0–25°. The key mechanism is that NPP growth above 4000 m was constrained by precipitation scarcity despite thermal limitation alleviation from warming. Overall, the direct effects of climate change outweighed those of various topographic factors, with both showing slight declines since 2010. These findings highlight the need for differentiated governance, restoration, and adaptive management of grasslands across diverse topographic gradients. Full article

Forest ecosystems are vital for biodiversity, climate regulation, and ecosystem services. Their resilience depends not only on species diversity but also on intraspecific variation—the genetic and phenotypic differences within species—which underpins adaptive capacity to environmental change. However, large-scale, continuous monitoring of intraspecific variation remains challenging. Here, we present a remote sensing approach using Sentinel-2 time series of five vegetation indices as proxies for pigment content, canopy structure, and water content to detect intraspecific variation in seven tree species across a broad environmental gradient in Switzerland. Using pure-species plot data from the Swiss National Forest Inventory, we decomposed variation into spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal components. We found that spatial variation dominated in evergreen species (48–86%), while temporal variation was more pronounced in deciduous species (56–82%), reflecting their stronger seasonality. These findings demonstrate that species-specific Sentinel-2 time series can effectively track intraspecific variation, providing a scalable method for forest monitoring. This approach opens new pathways for studying forest adaptation, informing management strategies, and guiding species selection for conservation under changing climate conditions. Full article

Under the global climate governance framework, advancing China’s “Dual Carbon” goals within the context of sustainable development requires detailed, micro-level research. While existing studies predominantly focus on national or provincial macro scales, there remains a critical gap in county-level analyses that account for regional heterogeneity—particularly in geographically and economically transitional provinces like Shaanxi. This study focuses on 107 counties in Shaanxi Province, using land-use data from 2000 to 2022 to construct carbon emission and carbon compensation accounting models. We measure horizontal carbon compensation standards, examine spatiotemporal patterns of carbon emissions, delineate compensation zones, and propose regional low-carbon development strategies to inform sustainable development planning. The results show the following: (1) They reveal a steady increase in CO₂ emissions over the period (from 940 million tons in 2000 to 2.089 billion tons in 2022), highlighting an ongoing challenge for sustainability, with a spatial pattern of “high in the north, low in the south, and outward expansion from the center.” (2) In 2022, carbon payments across the province totaled CNY 1.068 billion, while compensation reached CNY 670 million, with significant spatial heterogeneity: 87 counties identified as payers (66 heavy) and 20 as receivers (17 heavy). (3) By integrating the Economic Contribution Coefficient, Ecological Support Coefficient, and Carbon Offset Rate with Major Function-oriented Zoning, we classify the counties into 12 carbon compensation subregions and recommend gradient-based development strategies. This refined zoning framework provides a clear operational framework for formulating differentiated low-carbon land-use optimization strategies and regional carbon compensation policies tailored to the characteristics of different functional zones. The research findings offer differentiated compensation standards and low-carbon land-use planning guidelines to support Shaanxi Province’s transition towards sustainable development, serving as a reference for carbon governance and sustainable development practices in China’s provinces with transitional geographical features and promoting the realization of China’s “Dual Carbon” targets as integral components of national sustainable development. Full article

Carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) act as pivotal regulators of biogeochemical cycles, steering organic matter decomposition and carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems through the stoichiometric properties of photosynthetic organs. Deciphering their multi-scale spatiotemporal dynamics is central to unraveling plant nutrient strategies and their coupling mechanisms with global element cycling. In the current study, we modeled biogeochemical parameters (C/N/P contents, stoichiometry, and pools) in plant aboveground parts by using the growing mean temperature, total precipitation, total radiation, and maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVImax) across nine models (i.e., random forest model, generalized boosting regression model, multiple linear regression model, artificial neural network model, generalized linear regression model, conditional inference tree model, extreme gradient boosting model, support vector machine model, and recursive regression tree) in Xizang grasslands. The results showed that the random forest model had the highest predictive accuracy for nitrogen content, C:P, and N:P ratios under both grazing and fencing conditions (training R² ≥ 0.61, validation R² ≥ 0.95). Additionally, the random forest model had the highest predictive accuracy for C:N ratios under fencing conditions (training R² = 0.84, validation R² = 1.00), as well as for C pool and P content and pool under grazing conditions (training R² ≥ 0.62, validation R² ≥ 0.90). Therefore, the random forest algorithm based on climate data and/or the NDVImax demonstrated superior predictive performance in modeling these biogeochemical parameters. Full article

Developing data-driven models for spatiotemporal hydrological prediction presents challenges in managing complexity, capturing fine spatial and temporal resolution, and ensuring model resilience across diverse regions. This study introduces an innovative surrogate deep learning (SDL) architecture designed to predict daily soil moisture (DSM) and daily actual evapotranspiration (DAE) by integrating climate data and geophysical insights, with a focus on mountainous areas such as the Adige catchment. The proposed framework aims to enhance the parameter-calibration quality. The process begins by mapping the statistical characteristics of DAE and DSM across the whole region using an unsupervised fusion technique. Model accuracy is assessed by comparing the similarity of Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clusters before and after fusion, providing a metric for feature reduction. A data transformation technique using Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR) is then applied to each homogeneous subregion identified by the Random Forest classifier (RFC), based on elevation parameters (Wflow_dem). Furthermore, Kernel density estimation is used to ensure the reproducibility of the RFC-GBR process across large-scale applications. A comparative analysis is conducted across multiple SDL architectures, including LSTM, GRU, TCN, and ConvLSTM, over 50 epochs to better evaluate the beneficial effect of the transformed parameters on model performance and accuracy. Results indicate that adjusted parameter calibration improves model performance in all cases, with better alignment to Wflow ground truth during both wet and dry periods. The proposed model increases the accuracy by 20% to 42% when using simpler SDL models like LSTM and GRU, even with fewer epochs. Full article

Mountain forests in biodiversity hotspots show complex responses to climate and topographic gradients. However, the effect of synergistic controls of elevation and climate on Net Primary Productivity (NPP) dynamics remain insufficiently quantified in complex mountains. Southwest China’s mountains are Asia’s most biodiverse temperate region with pronounced vertical ecosystem stratification, representing a critical continental carbon sink. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of NPP in Southwest China’s typical mountain ecosystems over the past three decades using a high-resolution modeling framework integrated with relative importance analysis, a Geodetector, and an elevation-dependent model. The results showed that (1) NPP revealed a significant increasing trend, rising from 634 ± 325 to 748 ± 348 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ (mean rate 4 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) from 1990 to 2018. Spatially, the most rapid increases occurred in eastern regions. (2) Rising CO₂ and climate warming (dominate 17% regions) drove interannual NPP growth, with elevation thresholds dictating driver dominance. The CO₂ governed low elevation, while temperature controlled higher elevation (>4800 m). (3) The elevation-dependent model revealed a more complex and nonlinear relationship between NPP and elevation, identifying three distinct phases: the saturation phase (<500 m) with negligible decay of NPP; the transition phase (500–3500 m) with linear decline (NPP loss of 29 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ per 100 m); and the collapse phase (>3500 m) with continuously attenuated NPP losses (NPP average loss of 10.5 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ per 100 m) reflecting high-elevation vegetation adaptation to extreme conditions. (4) Land cover dominated NPP spatial heterogeneity and was amplified by interactions with elevation and temperature, highlighting a vegetation–climate–topography coupling mechanism that critically shapes productivity patterns. Biodiversity-rich widespread mixed forests underpinned the region’s high productivity. Mountain protection should focus on protecting existing evergreen forests from fragmentation, while forestation should prioritize the establishment of biodiversity-rich mixed forest. These findings established a comprehensive framework for spatiotemporal analysis of driving mechanisms and enhanced the understanding of NPP dynamics in complex mountain ecosystems, informing sustainable management priorities in mountain regions. Full article