Search Results (135)

Intense thunderstorms known as Nor’westers develop in the Eastern and North Eastern parts of India and Bangladesh before the monsoon season (March to May). The associated severe weather can cause extensive damage to property and livestock. This study uses the pre-monsoon volumetric data of S-band radar from 2013 to 2018 located in Kolkata to investigate the diurnal variation in the characteristics of the storms over Gangetic West Bengal. The cell initiation, echo top heights, maximum reflectivity, and core convective area are determined by using a flexible feature tracking algorithm (PyFLEXTRKR). The variation of the parameters in diurnal scale is examined from 211,503 individual cell tracks. The distribution of the severe weather phenomena based on radar based thresholds in spatial and temporal scale is also determined. The results show that new cell initiation peaks in the late evening and early morning, displaying bimodal variability. Most of these cells have a short lifespan of 0 to 3 h, with fewer than 5 percent of storms lasting beyond 3 h. The occurrence of hail is much greater in the afternoon due to intense surface heating than at other times. In contrast, the occurrence of lightning is higher in the late evening hours when the cell initiation reaches its peak. The convective rains are generally accompanied by lightning, exhibiting a similar diurnal temporal variability but are more widespread. The findings will assist operational weather forecasters in identifying locations that need targeted observation at certain times of the day to enhance the accuracy of severe weather nowcasting. Full article

High-resolution numerical weather prediction requires accurate cloud microphysical initial conditions to enhance forecasting capabilities for high-impact severe weather events such as convective storms. This study integrated Fengyun-2 (FY-2) geostationary satellite data (equivalent blackbody temperature and total cloud cover) and next-generation 3D weather radar reflectivity from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to construct cloud microphysical initial fields and evaluate their impact on the CMA-MESO 3 km regional model. An analysis of the catastrophic rainfall event in Henan on 20 July 2021, and a 92-day continuous experiment (May–July 2024) revealed that assimilating cloud microphysical variables significantly improved precipitation forecasting: the equitable threat scores (ETSs) for 1 h forecasts of light, moderate, and heavy rain increased from 0.083, 0.043, and 0.007 to 0.41, 0.36, and 0.217, respectively, with average hourly ETS improvements of 21–71% for 2–6 h forecasts and increases in ETSs for light, moderate, and heavy rain of 7.5%, 9.8%, and 24.9% at 7–12 h, with limited improvement beyond 12 h. Furthermore, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the 2 m temperature forecasts decreased across all 1–72 h lead times, with a 4.2% reduction during the 1–9 h period, while the geopotential height RMSE reductions reached 5.8%, 3.3%, and 2.0% at 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively. Additionally, synchronized enhancements were observed in 10 m wind prediction accuracy. These findings underscore the critical role of cloud microphysical initialization in advancing mesoscale numerical weather prediction systems. Full article

Lightning is one of the most severe natural disasters, characterized by its sudden onset, short duration, and significant damage. Existing quality control (QC) schemes for millisecond-level lightning observation data from a single source are primarily limited by the instrument and equipment, leading to inadequate monitoring, forecasting, and early warning accuracy in severe convective weather. This study proposes a comprehensive QC scheme for lightning location data from the China Meteorological Administration ground-based National Lightning Detection Network (CMA-LDN). The scheme integrates radar composite reflectivity (CREF) and FY-4A cloud-top brightness temperature (TBB), exploring the coupled relationship between lightning activity and severe weather processes. Through experimental analysis of convective processes over different time periods, QC thresholds are established based on the CREF, TBB, and area ratio. In this research, CREF ≥ 10 dBZ, TBB ≤ 270 K, and an 80% area ratio are tuned to filter false signals. Based on the regional threshold and area ratio results, gross error elimination and spatiotemporal clustering are combined to achieve an overall QC rate of 28.7%. The most effective quality control (QC) method is spatial-temporal clustering, achieving a QC efficiency of 20.9%. The processed lightning data are further merged with CREF and generated a 1 km and 6 min resolution lightning location dataset, which significantly improves the accuracy of ground-based lightning detection and supports operational forecasting of severe convective weather. Full article

Weather forecasting is essential for agriculture, yet current methods often lack the localized accuracy required to manage extreme weather events and optimize irrigation. The MAGDA Horizon Europe/EUSPA project addresses this gap by developing a modular system that integrates novel European space-based, airborne, and ground-based technologies. Unlike conventional forecasting systems, MAGDA enables precise, field-level predictions through the integration of cutting-edge technologies: Meteodrones provide vertical atmospheric profiles where traditional data are sparse; GNSS-reflectometry offers real-time soil moisture insights; and all observations feed into convection-permitting models for accurate nowcasting of extreme events. By combining satellite data, GNSS, Meteodrones, and high-resolution meteorological models, MAGDA enhances agricultural and water management with precise, tailored forecasts. Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, hail, and droughts, threatening both crop yields and water resources. Improving forecast reliability requires better observational data to refine initial atmospheric conditions. Recent advancements in assimilating reflectivity and in situ observations into high-resolution NWMs show promise, particularly for convective weather. Experiments using Sentinel and GNSS-derived data have further improved severe weather prediction. MAGDA employs a high-resolution cloud-resolving model and integrates GNSS, radar, weather stations, and Meteodrones to provide comprehensive atmospheric insights. These enhanced forecasts support both irrigation management and extreme weather warnings, delivered through a Farm Management System to assist farmers. As climate change increases the frequency of floods and droughts, MAGDA’s integration of high-resolution, multi-source observational technologies, including GNSS-reflectometry and drone-based atmospheric profiling, is crucial for ensuring sustainable agriculture and efficient water resource management. Full article

Deep convective clouds, such as towering cumulus and Cumulonimbus, can endanger lives and property, also being a major hazard to aviation. This study presents the convective index (IndexCON) used operationally at the Portuguese Meteorological Watch Office. Moreover, IndexCON is evaluated against lightning and precipitation data for two years, between January 2022 and December 2023, over mainland Portugal and its surrounding areas. This index combines several European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) prognostic variables, such as stability indices, cloud water content, relative humidity and vertical velocity, using a fuzzy-logic approach. IndexCON performs well in the warm season (May–October), with a probability of detection (POD) of 70%, a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 30% and a probability of false detection (POFD) less than 5%, leading to a Critical Success Index (CSI) above 0.55. However, IndexCON performs worse in the cold season (November–April), when dynamical drivers are more relevant, mainly due to overestimating the convective activity, resulting in CSI and Heidke Skill Score (HSS) values below 0.3. Optimizing the membership functions partially reduces this overestimation. Finally, the added value of IndexCON was illustrated in detail for a thunderstorm episode, using satellite products, lightning and precipitation data. Full article

Forecasting thunderstorms, along with their intensity and phenomenon, is still one of the most challenging tasks in modern weather forecasting. One of the methods for this prediction is based on the indices of convective instability in the atmosphere. For the first time, we analysed the values and trends of 23 stability indices on days when hail occurred. From 2005 to 2020, the most frequently observed hailstones had a diameter between 13 and 20 mm, which accounted for 35.8% of all hail days, which was 826. Huge hailstones with a greater than 50 mm diameter were observed on only two days. Eight of the 23 stability indices show a monotonically decreasing (Showalter Index, Lifted Index, Lifted Index using the virtual temperature, and Humidity Index) or increasing trend (K Index, Convective Available Potential Energy for the most unstable air parcel and for mixing layer, and Convective Available Potential Energy in the layer between air temperatures −10 and −30 °C). These trends indicate that the environment is becoming increasingly favourable for the formation of thunderstorms. However, this potential does not appear to be fully realised, as the frequency of severe and large hail (with diameters of 21 mm or more) has not increased during the period studied. Full article

On the morning of 7 March 2025, the Argentine district of Bahía Blanca experienced a severe flooding that led to at least 15 fatalities. This study presents the main aspects of the event based on different data sources that helped to explain the exceptional precipitation of about 300 mm and rapid flooding. The results indicated that Bahía Blanca district presented flooded areas of approximately 33 km² (1.4% of the total area) on 10 March, most of them concentrated in the non-urbanized zones. However, a total of 18 km² (0.8% of the total area) was still identified on 11 March, with a greater impact on the low-lying urban areas of the Bahía Blanca, General Daniel Cerri, and Ingeniero White towns. The likelihood of severe weather development was confirmed from instability indices. The very high moisture content along a low-level convergence line, jointly with upper-level divergence, contributed to deep convective cloud development that affected Bahía Blanca for at least 6 h. Increasing knowledge of urban floods from different data sources can support weather forecasts to provide timely warnings, essential to mitigate the adverse impacts of these extreme weather events on low-lying urban areas. Full article

Tornadoes are severe convective weather exhibiting localized and sudden occurrences. Weather radar is widely regarded as the most effective tool for monitoring tornadoes and issuing early warnings. Dual-polarization updating has significantly improved tornado prediction and forecasting abilities. This article proposes an innovative tornado detection algorithm based on XGBoost which is suitable for dual-polarization radar data, was upgraded and has been used in China since 2019, and has been applied in the Tornado Key Open Laboratory of the China Meteorological Administration. The characteristics associated with the velocity attributes, reflectivity, velocity spectrum width, differential reflectivity, and correlation coefficient are used in the algorithm to achieve real-time tornado detection. Experimental evaluations have demonstrated that the proposed algorithm significantly improves tornado detection rates and leading times. Compared with the traditional TDA-RF algorithm based on Doppler weather radar data, the TDA-XGB algorithm introduces dual polarization parameters (such as differential reflectivity and the correlation coefficient), which effectively improves tornado identification performance. In addition, the TDA-XGB algorithm combines artificial intelligence-assisted learning to optimize the traditional algorithm based on the tornado vortex signature (TVS) and tornado debris signature (TDS), further improving the detection effect. Furthermore, the algorithm provides classification probabilities in the genesis and evolution of tornadoes, thereby supporting forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and issue timely tornado warnings. Full article

Atmospheric pollution caused by aerosols deteriorates air quality, increasing public health risks. Anthropogenic aerosols are usually located within the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), which presents a daytime evolution that determines the air pollutants’ vertical mixing of those produced near the surface and, therefore, their ground-level concentration from local sources. Precise and complete characterization of the mixing layer is of crucial importance for numerical weather forecasting and climate models, but traditional methods such as radiosounding present some spatial and temporal limitations. Better resolutions have been obtained using lidar, which provides the aerosol vertical distribution. A particular type of lidar, the ceilometer, has demonstrated continuous measurement capabilities, providing vertical profiles with sub-minute time resolution and several-meter spatial resolution. Advanced methods, such as the recently developed STRATfinder algorithm, are required to estimate the ABL height in the presence of residual layers. More complex situations occur due to the advection of aerosols (e.g., due to long-range transport of desert dust, volcanic eruptions, or pyrocloud convection), producing a lofted layer in the free troposphere that may remain decoupled from the local ABL but can also be mixed. Aerosol-based methods for determination of the ABL height are challenging in those situations. The main objective of this research is the assessment of the impact of Saharan dust intrusions on the ABL using ceilometer signals, over a period of four years, 2020–2023. The ABL height database, obtained from ceilometer measurements every hour, is analyzed based on the most frequent synoptic patterns. A reduction in the ABL height was obtained from high dust load days (1576 ± 876 m) with respect to low dust load days (1857 ± 914 m), although it was still higher than clean days (1423 ± 772 m). This behavior is further studied discriminating by season and synoptic patterns. These results are relevant for health advice during Saharan dust intrusion days. Full article

The continental United States is a global hotspot of severe thunderstorms and therefore is particularly vulnerable to social and economic damages from high-impact severe convective weather (SCW), such as tornadoes, thunderstorm winds, and large hail. However, our knowledge of the spatiotemporal climatology and variability of SCW occurrence is still lacking, and the potential change in SCW frequency and intensity in response to anthropogenic climate warming is highly uncertain due to deficient and sparse historical records and the global and regional climate model’s inability to resolve thunderstorms. This study investigates SCW in the Central and Eastern United States in spring and early summer for the current and future warmed climate using two multi-year continental-scale convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. The pair of simulations consist of a retrospective simulation, which downscales the ERA-Interim reanalysis during October 2000–September 2013, and a future climate sensitivity simulation based on the perturbed reanalysis-derived boundary conditions with the CMIP5 ensemble-mean high-end emission scenario climate change. A proxy based on composite reflectivity and updraft helicity threshold is applied to infer the simulated SCW occurrence. Results indicate that the retrospective simulation captures reasonably well the spatial distributions and seasonal variations of the observed SCW events, with an exception of an overestimate along the Atlantic and Gulf coast. In a warmer-moister future, most regions experience intensified SCW activity, most notably in the early-middle spring, with the largest percentage increase in the foothills and higher latitudes. In addition, a shift of simulated radar reflectivity toward higher values, in association with the significant thermodynamic environmental response to climatic warming, potentially increases the SCW severity and resultant damage. Full article

This study employed version 4.2.2 of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for this simulation and applied two microphysics schemes, the Thompson scheme (THOM) and Milbrandt–Yau scheme (MY)—which are widely used in convective simulations—to simulate a mesoscale severe convective precipitation event that occurred in southeastern China on 8 May 2017. The simulations were then compared with dual-polarization radar observations using a radar simulator. It was found that THOM produced vertical structures of radar reflectivity (Z_H) closer to radar observations and accumulated precipitation more consistent with ground-based observations. However, both schemes overestimated specific differential phase (K_DP) and differential reflectivity (Z_DR) below the 0 °C level. Further analysis indicated that THOM produced more rain with larger raindrop sizes below the 0 °C level. Due to the close connection between raindrop breakup, evaporation rate, and raindrop size, sensitivity experiments on the breakup threshold (D_b) and the evaporation efficiency (E_E) of the THOM scheme were carried out. It was found that adjusting D_b significantly changed the simulated raindrop size distribution and had a certain impact on the strength of cold pool; whereas modifying E_E not only significantly changed the intensity and scope of the cold pool, but also had great effect on the raindrop size distribution. At the same time, comparison with dual-polarization radar observations indicated that reducing the D_b can improve the model’s simulation of polarimetric radar variables such as Z_DR. This paper specifically analyzes a severe convective precipitation event in the Guangdong region under weak synoptic conditions and a humid climate. It demonstrates the feasibility of a method based on polarimetric radar data that modifies D_b of THOM to achieve better consistency between simulations and observations in southeast China. Since the microphysical processes of different Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) vary, the generalizability of this study needs to be validated through more cases and regions in the future. Full article

Convection monitoring and forecasting are crucial for air traffic management as they can lead to the development of intense thunderstorms and hazards such as severe turbulence and icing, lightning activity, microbursts and hail that affect aviation safety. The airport of Burgas is located in southeast Bulgaria on the Black Sea coast and occurrences of intense thunderstorms are mainly observed in the warm season between May and September. This work presents an analysis of severe convection over southeast Bulgaria on 17 September 2022. In the late afternoon, a gust front was formed that reached the Burgas airport with a wind speed exceeding 45 m/s, the record for the past 50 years, damaging the instrument landing system of the airport. To analyse the severe weather conditions, we combine state-of-the-art observations from satellite and radar with the upper-air sounding and surface. The studied period was dominated by the presence of a very unstable air mass over southeast Bulgaria ahead of the atmospheric front. As convection developed and moved east towards Burgas, it had four characteristics of severe deep convection, including gravitational waves at the overshooting cloud top, a cold U-shape, a flanking line and a cloud top temperature below −70 °C. The positive integrated water vapour (IWV) rate of change preceded the lightning activity peak by 30 min. Analysis of integrated vapour transport (IVT) gives higher values by a factor of two compared to climatology associated with the atmospheric river covering the eastern Mediterranean sea. Full article

Radar echo extrapolation is a critical technique for short-term weather forecasting. Timely warnings of severe convective weather events can be provided according to the extrapolated images. However, traditional echo extrapolation methods fail to fully utilize historical radar echo data, resulting in limited accuracy for future radar echo prediction. Existing deep learning echo extrapolation methods often face issues such as high-threshold echo attenuation and blurring distortion. In this paper, we propose a UNet-based multi-branch feature extraction model named MBFE-UNet for radar echo extrapolation to mitigate these issues. We design a Multi-Branch Feature Extraction Block, which extracts spatiotemporal features of radar echo data from various perspectives. Additionally, we introduce a Temporal Cross Attention Fusion Unit to model the temporal correlation between features from different network layers, which helps the model to better capture the temporal evolution patterns of radar echoes. Experimental results indicate that, compared to the Transformer-based Rainformer, the MBFE-UNet achieves an average increase of 4.8% in the critical success index (CSI), 5.5% in the probability of detection (POD), and 3.8% in the Heidke skill score (HSS). Full article

In this study, we propose a model called CNN-BiLSTM-AM that utilizes deep learning techniques to forecast severe convective weather based on ERA5 hourly data and observations. The model integrates a CNN with a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) system and an Attention Mechanism (AM). The CNN is tasked with extracting features from the input data, while the BiLSTM effectively captures temporal dependencies. The AM enhances the results by considering the impact of past feature states on severe weather phenomena. Additionally, we assess the performance of our model in comparison to traditional network architectures, including ConvLSTM, Predrnn++, CNN, FC-LSTM, and LSTM. Our results indicate that the CNN-BiLSTM-AM model exhibits superior accuracy in precipitation forecasting. Especially with the extension of the forecast time, the model performs well across multiple evaluation metrics. Furthermore, an interpretability analysis of the convective weather mechanisms utilizing machine learning highlights the critical role of total precipitable water (PWAT) in short-term heavy precipitation forecasts. It also emphasizes the significant impact of regional variables on convective weather patterns and the role of convective available potential energy (CAPE) in fostering conditions conducive to convection. These findings not only confirm the effectiveness of deep learning in the automatic identification of severe weather features but also validate the suitability of the sample dataset employed. Given its remarkable performance and robustness, we advocate for the adoption of this model to enhance the forecast of severe convective weather across various business applications. Full article

The study aims to develop vertical radar reflectivity profiles based on lightning density data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the GOES-16 satellite in the subtropical region of Brazil. The primary objective is to improve the assimilation of lightning data in numerical weather prediction models. The methodology involves the analysis of polarimetric radar data from Chapecó-SC and Jaraguari-MS, spanning from January 2019 to December 2023, and their correlation with lightning data from the GLM. Radar reflectivity profiles were created for different lightning density classes, categorized into six classes based on geometric progression. Results show a significant relationship between lightning activity and radar reflectivity, with distinct profiles for convective and stratiform events. These findings demonstrate the potential of using GLM data to enhance short-term weather forecasting, particularly for severe weather events. The study concludes that the integration of GLM data into weather models can lead to more accurate predictions of intense precipitation events, contributing to better preparedness and response strategies. Full article