Search Results (629)

African hydrological systems are incredibly complex and highly sensitive to climate variability. This review synthesizes observational data, remote sensing, and climate modeling to understand the interactions between fluvial processes, water cycle dynamics, and anthropogenic pressures. Currently, these systems are experiencing accelerating warming (+0.3 °C/decade), leading to more intense hydrological extremes and regionally varied responses. For example, East Africa has shown reversed temperature–moisture correlations since the Holocene onset, while West African rivers demonstrate nonlinear runoff sensitivity (a threefold reduction per unit decline in rainfall). Land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) are as impactful as climate change, with analysis from 1959–2014 revealing extensive conversion of primary non-forest land and a more than sixfold increase in the intensity of pastureland expansion by the early 21st century. Future projections, exemplified by studies in basins like Ethiopia’s Gilgel Gibe and Ghana’s Vea, indicate escalating aridity with significant reductions in surface runoff and groundwater recharge, increasing aquifer stress. These findings underscore the need for integrated adaptation strategies that leverage remote sensing, nature-based solutions, and transboundary governance to build resilient water futures across Africa’s diverse basins. Full article

Climate change is projected to significantly alter hydrological conditions across the Northern Hemisphere, with increased precipitation variability, more intense rainfall events, and earlier, rain-driven spring floods in regions like northern Sweden. These changes will affect both natural ecosystems and hydropower-regulated rivers, particularly during ecologically sensitive periods such as the grayling spawning season in late spring. This study examines the impact of extreme spring flow conditions on grayling spawning habitats by analyzing historical runoff data and simulating high-flow events using a 2D hydraulic model in Delft3D FM. Results show that previously suitable spawning areas became too deep or experienced flow velocities beyond ecological thresholds, rendering them unsuitable. These hydrodynamic shifts could have cascading effects on aquatic vegetation and food availability, ultimately threatening the survival and reproductive success of grayling populations. The findings underscore the importance of integrating ecological considerations into future water management and hydropower operation strategies in the face of climate-driven flow variability. Full article

Land requirements and impacts from future development are a significant concern throughout the world. In Florida (USA), the state’s population increased from 18.8 M to 21.5 M between 2010 and 2020, and is projected to reach 26.6 M by 2040. To accommodate these new residents, 801 km² of wetlands were converted to developed uses between 1996 and 2016. These conversions present a significant threat to Florida’s unique ecosystems and highlight the need to prioritize conservation and water resource protection, both for the natural and human services that wetland and upland landscapes provide. To better understand the relationship between future development and water resources, we used future development and event mean concentration (EMC) models for Escambia and Santa Rosa counties in Florida (USA) to assess impacts from development patterns on water quality/runoff and water resource protection priorities. This study found that if future development densities increased by 30%, reductions of 7713 acres for developed land, 17,768 acre feet of stormwater volume, ~88k lb/yr total nitrogen, and ~15k lb/yr total phosphorus could be achieved. It also found that urban infill, redevelopment, and stormwater management are essential and complementary tools to broader growth management strategies for reducing sprawl while also addressing urban stormwater impacts. Full article

Anthropogenic activities and climate change have significantly altered runoff generation in the upper Han River basin, posing a challenge to the water supply sustainability for the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Land use/cover changes (LUCCs) affect hydrological processes by modifying evapotranspiration, infiltration and soil moisture content. Based on hydro-meteorological data from 1961 to 2023 and LUCC data series from 1985 to 2023, this study aimed to identify the temporal trend in hydro-meteorological variables, to quantify the impacts of underlying land surface and climate factors at different time scales and to clarify the effects of LUCCs and basin greening on the runoff generation process. The results showed that (1) inflow runoff declined at a rate of −1.71 mm/year from 1961 to 2023, with a marked shift around 1985, while potential evapotranspiration increased at a rate of 2.06 mm/year within the same time frame. (2) Annual climate factors accounted for 61.01% of the runoff reduction, while underlying land surface contributed 38.99%. Effective precipitation was the dominant climatic factor during the flood season, whereas potential evapotranspiration had a greater influence during the dry season. (3) From 1985 to 2023, the LUCC changed significantly, mainly manifested by the increasing forest area and decreasing crop land area. The NDVI also showed an upward trend over the years; the actual evapotranspiration increased by 1.163 billion m³ due to the LUCC. This study addresses the climate-driven and human-induced hydrological changes in the Danjiangkou Reservoir and provides an important reference for water resource management. Full article

Under the influence of global climate change, water conservancy projects located in the high-latitude cold regions of the world are facing severe challenges. This study addresses the contradiction between water supply stability and ecological flow during the dry season in cold regions. Taking Linhai Reservoir as the core, it integrates the HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model with multi-source data such as basin topography, hydro-meteorological data, and water conservancy project parameters to construct a multi-scenario water supply scheduling model during the dry season. The aim is to provide scientific recommendations for different reservoir operation strategies in response to varying frequencies of upstream inflow, based on simulations conducted after the reservoir’s completion. Taking into account winter runoff reduction characteristics and engineering parameters, we simulated the relationships between water level and flow, ecological flow requirements, and urban water shortages. The results indicate that in both flood and normal years, dynamic coordination of storage and discharge can achieve a daily water supply of 120,000 cubic meters, with 100% compliance for the ecological flow rate. For mild and moderate drought years, additional water diversion becomes necessary to achieve 93.5% and 89% supply reliability, respectively. During severe and extreme droughts, significantly reduced reservoir inflows lower ecological compliance rates, necessitating emergency measures, such as utilizing dead storage capacity and exploring alternative water sources. The study proposes operational strategies tailored to different drought intensities: initiating storage adjustments in September for mild droughts and implementing peak-shifting measures by mid-October for extreme droughts. These approaches enhance storage efficiency and mitigate ice blockage risks. This research supports the water supply security and river ecological health of urban and rural areas in Mudanjiang City and Hailin City and provides a certain scientific reference basis for the multi-objective coordinated operation of reservoirs in the same type of high-latitude cold regions. Full article

Large-scale land restoration projects require on-the-ground monitoring and evidence-based evaluation. This study, part of the World Bank Burundi Landscape Restoration and Resilience Project (in French: Projet de Restauration et de Résilience du Paysage du Burundi-PRRPB), examines the impact of slow-forming terraces on surface conditions and erosion in Isare (Mumirwa) and Buhinyuza (Eastern Depressions), Burundi. Slow-forming, or progressive, terraces were installed on 16 December 2022 (Isare) and 30 December 2022 (Buhinyuza), featuring ditches and soil bunds to enhance soil and water conservation. Twelve plots were established, with 132 measurement pins, of which 72 were in non-terraced plots (n_PT) and 60 were in terraced plots (PT). Monthly measurements, conducted until May 2023, assessed erosion reduction, surface conditions, roughness, and soil thickness. Terracing reduced soil loss by 54% in Isare and 9% in Buhinyuza, though sediment accumulation in ditches was excessive, especially in n_PT. Anti-erosion ditches improved surface stability by reducing slope length, lowering erosion and runoff. Covered Surface (CoS%) exceeded 95%, while Opened Surface (OS%) and Bare Surface (BS%) declined significantly. At Isare, OS% dropped from 97% to 80%, and BS% from 96% to 3% in PT. Similar trends appeared in Buhinyuza. Findings highlight PRRPB effectiveness in this short-term timeframe, and provide insights for soil conservation in steep-slope regions of Central Africa. Full article

The Chushandian Reservoir, a key control project on the Huaihe River, is vital for flood control, water allocation, and maintaining ecological baseflow. This study analyzes runoff evolution and provides predictive insights for sustainable water management. Methods employed include Extremum Symmetric Mode Decomposition (ESMD) for decomposing complex signals, a mutation detection algorithm to identify significant changes in time-series data, and cross-wavelet transform to examine correlations and phase relationships between time series across frequencies. Additionally, the hybrid models GM-BP and CNN-LSTM were used for runoff forecasting. Results show cyclical fluctuations in annual runoff every 2.3, 5.3, and 14.5 years, with a significant decrease observed in 2010. Among climate factors, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) had the strongest correlation with runoff variability, while ENSO and PDO showed more localized impacts. Model evaluations indicated strong predictive performance, with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) scores of 0.884 for GM-BP and 0.909 for CNN-LSTM. These findings clarify the climatic drivers of runoff variability and provide valuable tools for water resource management at the Chushandian Reservoir under future climate uncertainties. Full article

This study aimed to evaluate the performance and robustness of the GR2m “Génie Rural à 2 paramètres au pas du temps Mensuel” rainfall–runoff model for simulating streamflow under past and future hydrometeorological shifts in the Medjerda, a data-scarce Mediterranean catchment in northern Tunisia characterized by limited hydrometeorological records and high climate variability. The evaluation was conducted across three subcatchments characterized by contrasting climatic conditions and representing the hydrometeorological pattern of the Medjerda catchment. To assess the model’s robustness, a calibration–validation process was applied. This method alternated between dry and wet periods and evaluated model performance through various criteria. Subsequently, GR2m was adopted to simulate projected discharge, using projections from the “Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 5” (MIROC5) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Standardized climate indices (SCIs) were employed to assess climate change impacts. The results demonstrate that GR2m performs well in simulating streamflow across different climatic conditions within the Medjerda catchment and maintains satisfactory performance when calibrated over a non-stationary climate period. The findings indicate a continuous decline in projected runoff and suggest a significant increase in extreme drought events. Full article

The effects of climate change and urbanisation, such as more intense rainfall and changing land use patterns, are putting increasing pressure on urban drainage systems. This study proposes a comprehensive methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDSs) in mitigating flooding and managing stormwater in both current and future scenarios. The approach integrates geospatial data, including digital elevation models (DEMs) and land use information, to delineate catchments and characterise hydrological parameters. Historical rainfall records and hydrological modelling were employed to define two baseline storm events: an extreme storm involving 422 mm of rainfall over 2 h, and an average storm involving 2.84 mm of rainfall over 1 h and 18 min. Future scenarios were developed by updating these baseline events using annual rates of change in maximum and average precipitation derived from climate projections between 2025 and 2100. The analysis incorporates seven CMIP6 climate scenarios: SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-2.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. A stochastic simulation of 1000 storms per year was carried out using a custom-built conceptual hydrological model based on CN and developed in Python, which reflects interannual variability. The results show that extreme storm volumes could increase by up to seven times and average storm volumes by up to two and a half times. Additionally, discharge peaks could exceed baseline values by up to 20% in some years, suggesting an increased occurrence of extreme runoff events. The methodology assesses SUDS performance by comparing runoff and hydrological responses between baseline and future estimates. This framework enables vulnerabilities and adaptation needs to be identified, ensuring the long-term effectiveness of SUDSs in managing urban flood risk. Addressing uncertainties in climate and land use projections emphasises the importance of integrating SUDS assessments into wider urban resilience strategies. Full article

Lake Winona, a 129 ha eutrophic urban lake comprised of two interconnected basins, exceeds state water quality standards for total phosphorus. Historical lake nutrient data and traditional watershed modeling for the lake’s two basins highlighted multiple major pathways (e.g., municipal stormwater discharges, watershed runoff, internal loading, and wetland discharges) for total phosphorus (P) loading, with >900 kg P/year estimated entering the water columns of each basin. Updated data sources and newer watershed modeling resulted in significantly different (both higher and lower) P loading estimates for the various P sources, especially watershed runoff and internal loading. Overall, basin-specific loading estimates using the updated model were significantly lower (28–40%) than previous estimates: 680 and 546 kg P/year mobilized in the western and eastern basins, respectively. To achieve state water quality standards (<60 ppm P for the western basin, <40 ppm for the eastern basin), watershed and internal P loading each would need to be reduced by approximately 120 kg P/year across the two basins. Reductions could be achieved by a combination of alum treatments to reduce internal loading, removal of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) to prevent interference with alum treatments and nutrient releases via excretion and defecation, and six engineered structures to intercept P before it enters the lake. The different P reduction projects would cost USD 119 to 7920/kg P removed, totaling USD 5.2 million, or USD 40,310/hectare of lake surface area. Full article

The Yellow River is a renowned sediment-laden river and analyzing its water–sediment evolution characteristics and trends is critical for rational water resource utilization and water security. Using annual runoff and sediment transport data from Toudaoguai Hydrological Station (1960–2019), Mann–Kendall tests, cumulative anomalies analysis, and wavelet analysis were used to investigate the decadal variations. A coupled ARIMA-BP model was developed to improve simulation accuracy over standalone ARIMA/BP models for trend prediction. The results showed significant decreasing trends in both runoff (Z = −3.22) and sediment transport (Z = −4.73) during 1960–2019, with change points in 1986 (runoff) and 1984 (sediment). The primary periodicities were 12 years for runoff and 31 years for sediment transport. The coupled model achieved good consistency (R² = 0.9142 for runoff, 0.8637 for sediment), outperforming individual models. Projections indicate continued declines in both variables from 2020 to 2029. Natural factors are the main cause affecting the changes in runoff, while human activities are the primary influencing factor for the changes in sediment load. This study introduces a novel approach for water–sediment analysis in the Yellow River Basin, providing technical support for sustainable water resource management. Full article

Green roofs (GRs) are emerging as effective tools for mitigating urban runoff, particularly in cities facing challenges related to increased impervious surfaces and flooding risks. This study evaluates the potential hydrological performance of GR retrofitting in São José dos Campos, Brazil, based on municipal legislation, focusing on the effects of reducing the Effective Impervious Area (EIA) in urban watersheds. Using a range of projected EIA reduction scenarios (Mandatory, Incentivized, and Ideal), this study compares key hydrological indicators such as peak flow attenuation, runoff volume reduction, and hydrograph delay during rainfall events with different return periods. The results show that retrofitting with GRs significantly attenuates peak flows and delays runoff, with the ‘Ideal’ scenario (EIA = 16%) achieving peak flow reductions of up to 41% and runoff volume reductions of 35%. However, the effectiveness of GRs diminishes for high-intensity rainfall events, suggesting that GRs are most effective for frequent, low-intensity storms. These findings demonstrate the potential of GRs in reducing flooding risks in urban environments, highlighting the importance of integrating GRs into broader sustainable drainage systems. This study further emphasizes that while financial support is crucial for promoting GR adoption, it alone is not sufficient. Policies should be complemented by educational efforts and urban regulatory measures to ensure widespread adoption and long-term impact. This research provides urban planners and stakeholders with evidence to enhance urban resilience, sustainability, and effective flood risk management. Full article

The reducing streamflow is a major concern in the Yilong Lake Basin (YLB), which supplies water for agriculture and the growing population in the basin and to maintain the health of the regional ecosystem. The YLB has experienced remarkable land use/land cover change (LUCC) and climate change (CC) in recent years. To understand the drivers of the streamflow change in this basin, the effects of the land use change and climate variation on the temporal flow variability were studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT simulated the streamflow well. Then the streamflow responses to the land use change between 2010 and 2020 and climate change with future climate projections (SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) were evaluated. Results showed that the LUCC in the YLB caused a marginal decline in the annual streamflow at the whole basin scale but significantly altered rainfall–runoff relationships and intra-annual discharge patterns; e.g., monthly streamflows decreased by up to 3% in the dry season under the surface modification, with subbasins of the YLB exhibiting divergent responses attributed to spatial heterogeneity in land surface transitions. Under future climate scenarios, streamflow projections revealed general declining trends with significant uncertainties, particularly under high-emission pathways, e.g., SSP370 and SSP585, in which the streamflow could be projected to reduce by up to 5.9% in the mid-future (2031–2045). In addition, droughts were expected to intensify, exacerbating seasonal water stress in the future. It suggests that integrated water governance should synergize climate-resilient land use policies with adaptive infrastructure to address regional water resources challenges. Full article

The response mechanisms of vegetation dynamics to climate change in arid regions, particularly under extreme low-altitude and high-temperature environments, remain unclear. Focusing on China’s lowest and hottest Turpan-Hami Basin, this study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation cover (using MODIS NDVI) and its response to temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) based on data from 2001 to 2020. Theil–Sen trend analysis, the Mann–Kendall test, and Pearson correlation were employed. Key findings include the following: (1) NDVI exhibited a significant increasing trend, with the largest rise in winter and peak values in summer. Spatially, high NDVI was concentrated in oasis and mountainous forest-grassland zones, while low values prevailed in desert Gobi regions; 34.2% of the area showed significant improvement, though localized degradation occurred. (2) Temperature showed no significant overall correlation with NDVI, except for strong positive correlations in limited high-altitude cold zones (2.9%). Precipitation had minimal influence (no correlation in 75.4% of the area), with localized positive responses in northwestern foothills linked to runoff. PET exhibited positive correlations (weak or strong) with NDVI across nearly half of the region (46.8%), predominantly in oasis-desert and piedmont transition zones. (3) Human activities, notably irrigation and shelterbelt projects, are key drivers of oasis vegetation restoration. Critically, the positive PET-NDVI correlation challenges the conventional paradigm viewing evapotranspiration solely as water stress. This study elucidates the compound responses of vegetation dynamics to climatic and anthropogenic factors in a low-altitude arid region, providing a scientific basis for ecological restoration and water resource management optimization. Full article

Increasing climate change requires cities to adapt to changing weather conditions. New elements for decentralized stormwater management must be installed to protect the sewer system from overloading during heavy rainfall events and to keep water in the city for irrigation use. A pilot project was implemented in Leipzig in 2020, in which infiltration tree trench systems with three different designs were installed and equipped with measuring technology during a road renovation project. The catchment areas of these three tree trenches are between 215 and 300 m² each. In two of the systems, water retention was included to supply the tree with water during drought periods. The retention elements are sealed with clay in tree trench TT1 and bentonite in tree trench TT3. For tree trench TT2, no retention capacity was provided. This article presents the design, construction, and scientific monitoring of the three tree infiltration trenches. The conclusions after four years of operation from the perspective of two departments of the City of Leipzig are summarized. The tree trench TT1 with the clay pan for water storage shows the best performance in terms of water retention and tree fitness. For the next generation of such infiltration systems, improvements in the design of the street runoff inlets and the surface of the tree trench system’s interior are discussed. Full article