Search Results (1,022)

Mountain flood susceptibility in complex mountainous basins is strongly influenced by terrain–climate interactions; however, the linkage between spatial susceptibility patterns and hydrological processes remains poorly understood. This study proposes a process-oriented framework that explicitly links flood susceptibility patterns with hydrological processes, moving beyond conventional approaches that rely on independent model integration. The Baishuijiang River Basin, located in Wenxian County, southern Gansu Province, China, is selected as a representative mountainous watershed for this analysis. The specific conclusions are as follows: (1) Flood susceptibility was mapped using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)-enhanced Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model based on multi-source environmental variables, including climatic, terrain, soil, land cover, and vegetation factors. The model achieved high predictive accuracy (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) = 0.912), identifying precipitation of the driest month (bio14), elevation, and land use as dominant controlling factors. Medium-to-high-susceptibility areas account for approximately 22% of the basin and are mainly distributed along river valleys and flow convergence areas. These patterns are strongly associated with reduced infiltration capacity under dry antecedent conditions and enhanced flow concentration in steep terrain, and they exhibit clear nonlinear responses and threshold effects. (2) Hydrological simulations using Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) show good agreement with observed runoff (Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) = 0.74−0.85). Sensitivity analysis indicates that runoff dynamics are primarily controlled by the Curve Number (CN), recession constant, and ratio to peak, corresponding to infiltration capacity, recession processes, and peak discharge amplification. The spatial consistency between high-susceptibility areas and areas of strong runoff response demonstrates that susceptibility patterns can be physically explained through hydrological processes, providing a process-based interpretation rather than a purely statistical prediction. (3) Future projections indicate that medium–high-susceptibility areas remain generally stable but show a gradual expansion (+5.2% ± 0.8%) and increasing concentration along river corridors under climate change scenarios. This reflects intensified precipitation variability and enhanced runoff concentration processes, suggesting a climate-driven amplification of flood risk in hydrologically connected areas. Overall, this study goes beyond conventional susceptibility assessment by establishing a physically interpretable framework that provides a consistent linkage between environmental controls, susceptibility patterns, and hydrological responses. The proposed approach is transferable to similar mountainous basins with strong terrain–climate interactions, although uncertainties related to data limitations and single-basin application remain and require further investigation. Full article

Diffuse pollution from agricultural runoff, characterized by intermittent discharges of complex contaminant mixtures, including nutrients, pesticides, and heavy metals (HMs), poses a persistent threat to global water quality. Conventional “end-of-pipe” strategies often fail to address these decentralized, nonpoint sources. This review examines the evolution of Permeable Reactive Barriers (PRBs) from static, abiotic filters into modern Permeable Reactive Bio-Barriers (PRBBs), engineered as dynamic, fixed-bed biofilm reactors. A key advancement in PRBB efficacy is the exploitation of biofilm plasticity, particularly in response to coexistence with organic and inorganic pollutants. While heavy metals are traditionally viewed as inhibitors, this review synthesizes evidence showing that subinhibitory HM levels can act as structural and functional drivers. These metals induce the upregulation of Extracellular Polymeric Substances (EPSs), creating a “protective shield” that sequesters metals and confers functional resilience on the microbial consortia responsible for nutrient removal and pesticide biodegradation. The review analyzes contaminant removal mechanisms, highlighting the bio-chemo synergy between reactive media and biofilms, and proposes a classification framework based on target contaminants, media, and technological integration. Significant focus is placed on emerging hybrid multi-media systems designed to protect the microbial community from toxic metal shocks, alongside the integration of artificial intelligence for predictive control. While challenges in hydraulic sustainability and field validation remain, PRBBs represent a compact, low-energy, and scalable ecotechnology. PRBBs offer a strategically targeted solution within the Nature-Based Solutions toolkit for building resilient protection of aquatic ecosystems at the critical land-water interface. Full article

Climate change has intensified extreme hydrological risks, particularly in basins characterized by frequent seasonal streamflow interruptions and discontinuous hydrological records, where traditional process-based models exhibit limited capability for adaptive water resource management. This study develops a hybrid SWAT-LSTM framework that integrates SWAT-derived hydrological variables with meteorological factors and applies SHAP interpretability analysis to quantify dominant drivers and identify threshold inflection points of runoff variability. Using the upper and middle reaches of the Huolin River Basin as a case study, the coupled model outperformed the standalone SWAT model during the test period (NSE: 0.876 vs. 0.710; R²: 0.884 vs. 0.736) and more accurately reproduced extreme flood and drought events. Future projections (2026–2100), driven by the optimized FGOALS-g3 climate model under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, indicate increasing precipitation, accelerated minimum temperature rise, and a non-stationary runoff pattern characterized by a mid-century decline followed by a late-century increase. The SHAP results reveal strengthened meteorological dominance, particularly for precipitation and minimum temperature, while soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and percolation remain key hydrological controls. The upward shift in the minimum temperature threshold reflects strengthened temperature control on runoff dynamics under warming. The proposed framework improves extreme runoff prediction and provides a quantitative basis for climate-adaptive basin management. Full article

Snow density plays a crucial role in water resource estimation, runoff forecasting, and early warning of natural disasters such as avalanches and blizzards. This study uses optical satellite multispectral reflectance data to retrieve snow density, providing a novel perspective for snow density retrieval research. Supported by auxiliary data including CanSWE in situ measurements, Sentinel-2 satellite data, and ERA5-Land reanalysis data, this study constructs a hybrid model (Snow_ACMix) that integrates the strengths of the multi-head attention mechanism and convolutional neural networks, realizing direct snow density retrieval from multispectral satellite reflectance data for the first time. This research was primarily conducted in Canada and Alaska. For the Canadian region, the model achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.034 g/cm³, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.051 g/cm³, and a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.547. For the Alaska region, the model yields an MAE of 0.020 g/cm³, an RMSE of 0.029 g/cm³, and an R² of 0.803. Feature and module ablation experiments are carried out, and one-shot transfer learning is adopted to perform snow density retrieval in the Alaska region. The spatial transfer prediction results show an MAE of 0.027 g/cm³, an RMSE of 0.038 g/cm³, and an R² of 0.747, which verify the model’s excellent spatial generalization ability and superior performance in data-scarce regions. The advantages and limitations of the Snow_ACMix model are investigated through comparative validation across different land cover types, regions, time periods, and against ERA5 data. The Snow_ACMix model achieves favorable retrieval performance in mountainous areas, and its practical application capability is verified by snow density retrieval in the Silver Star Mountain region. However, the model still has limitations: it is vulnerable to the effects of wet snow, resulting in large fluctuations in retrieval results in wet snow regions. Full article

A significant portion of Europe is prone to flooding, including severe events occurring over very small areas. Recent flood hazard mapping methods can cover large regions, but often fail to capture processes driven by small streams or direct rainfall. This study presents the authors’ experience in the application of a fully hydrodynamic model over an entire territory, with direct rainfall input (rain-on-grid approach at the basin scale). The case study is the Neto River basin in Calabria (Italy), covering approximately 1000 km², a region that represents an ideal natural laboratory for investigating flash flood processes in Europe. Simulations were carried out using the TUFLOW 2D commercial modelling tool. A key objective is to demonstrate that the Chicago hyetograph enables a constant return period across the entire domain. Additionally, specific procedures are proposed to represent numerous minor crossings (e.g., small bridges, culverts, and road and railway underpasses) and dam outlets without refining the computational grid or abandoning the Shallow Water Equations (SWE). This approach allows identification of major river floods, flash floods, runoff-related hydraulic effects, and pluvial flooding. Results show that the fully hydrodynamic rain-on-grid model is highly effective for flood hazard mapping, with strong agreement between simulations and observed events, confirming its predictive reliability and enabling high-resolution, comprehensive territorial analysis. Full article

Runoff time series often exhibit nonlinear and fluctuating characteristics, and their complexity has further increased with the intensification of global climate change; high-precision daily-scale forecasting remains a core challenge in the field of hydrological forecasting. Addressing the shortcomings of existing methods in terms of runoff feature extraction capabilities and limited forecasting accuracy, this paper aims to improve the accuracy of daily runoff forecasting in small watersheds by constructing a hybrid forecasting model that integrates optimization algorithms, signal decomposition, and deep learning models. Specifically, the original runoff data is first preliminarily decomposed using a variational mode decomposition (VMD) method optimized by the grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm. The mode components obtained from the decomposition are evaluated using Fuzzy Entropy (FE), and the selected high-entropy components (IMFs) are then input into a second-order decomposition using an optimized Wavelet Transform (WT) to further extract latent features. After decomposition, the mode components are reassembled; second, a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model for daily runoff prediction is constructed for each subcomponent, and the model’s hyperparameters are optimized using an optimization algorithm; finally, the prediction results are reconstructed to obtain the final output. Case studies were conducted using three hydrological stations—Nanfeng, Baiquan, and Shaziling—in the Xujiang River basin of the Fuhe River. The experimental results indicate that by incorporating an optimization mechanism and a two-stage decomposition strategy, the proposed model achieved an NSE of over 0.95 at all three stations. Compared to the baseline BiLSTM model, the proposed model reduced the RMSE by 76.69%, 75.82%, and 65.92% at the three stations, respectively, and reduced the MAE by 64.77%, 73.54%, and 50.46%, and NSE increased by 27.82%, 40.06%, and 38.02%, respectively. This demonstrates that the model exhibits excellent reliability and superiority in daily-scale runoff forecasting for small watersheds. Full article

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin occupy a strategically pivotal position in regional development; yet extreme drought-runoff events pose severe threats to water supply and ecological security. Despite this, systematic research gaps persist, including the lack of a unified definition, standardized identification criteria, and clear understanding of formation mechanisms for extreme drought-runoff. To address these limitations, this study focused on extreme drought-runoff in the basin, utilizing 1956–2024 discharge data from four mainstream hydrological stations and meteorological data from 171 stations. Quantitative discrimination criteria were established via Pearson-III frequency analysis; meteorological characteristics were analyzed using the Meteorological Drought Comprehensive Index; and formation mechanisms were explored through partial correlation analysis and multiple linear regression. This study innovatively proposed a basin-wide three-level quantitative discrimination criterion for drought-runoff based on the June–November flow frequency of key mainstream stations, which is distinguished from single-indicator drought identification methods (SPI/SPEI/SSI) by integrating basin-scale hydrological coherence and seasonal drought characteristics. The results revealed basin-wide extreme drought-runoff in 2006 and 2022, severe drought-runoff in 1972 and 2011, and relatively severe drought-runoff in 1959, 1992, and 2024. Typical extreme drought-runoff events were characterized by sustained low precipitation and high temperatures. Meteorological factors emerged as the primary driver during June–September, while reservoir operation and riverine water intake played secondary roles. Notably, the large-scale reservoir group in the Yangtze River Basin (53 key control reservoirs) helped alleviate drought-runoff impacts from December to May (non-flood season) via water supplementation. These findings provide a robust scientific basis for precise drought-runoff prediction and the development of targeted adaptation strategies in the Yangtze River Basin. Full article

A continuous integration framework and methodology for hydrological modeling is proposed that integrates model sensitivity analysis with real-time sensor tasking to prioritize data collection in regions and periods of high hydrological variability and drive model refinement. The Cahaba River Watershed in central Alabama serves as a case study to develop this approach. To this end, a benchmark Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model (30 m DEM) was refined with high-resolution spatial datasets in QGIS, including 1 m DEMs, NLCD land cover, and SSURGO soil data. The refined model significantly enhanced subbasin delineation, increasing granularity from 8 to 99 subbasins, thereby improving representation of slope, runoff, and storage variability across heterogeneous landscapes. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the influence of DEM resolution and curve number (CN) perturbations on hydrologic responses, including retention, flow partitioning, and dominant flow direction. High-resolution DEMs (≤5 m) captured microtopographic features that strongly affect infiltration and surface runoff, while coarser DEMs (≥20 m) systematically underestimated retention and smoothed hydrologic gradients. The higher-resolution DEMs can be used to selectively improve the model at certain hotspots/areas of higher sensitivity. Localized flow simulations demonstrated that fine-scale terrain data substantially improve model realism, with up to 58% greater retention captured in 10 m DEMs compared to 30 m DEMs. The results confirm that aligning sensor placement and model refinement with spatially explicit sensitivity zones enhances both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. The proposed continuous integration approach provides a scalable pathway for coupling high-resolution modeling with adaptive sensing in watershed management and supports future integration of real-time data assimilation for continuous model improvement. Full article

Flood susceptibility mapping in high-altitude ungauged basins faces a structural dichotomy: physically based models often suffer from systematic biases due to uncertain satellite precipitation, whereas data-driven models are prone to overfitting and lack physical consistency in data-scarce regions. To resolve this, this study proposes a Physically constrained Particle Swarm Optimization–Random Forest (P-PDRF) framework, validated in the Lhasa River Basin. The core innovation lies in coupling a hydrological model with statistical learning by utilizing the maximum daily runoff depth as a “Relative Hydraulic Intensity Index.” This approach leverages the topological correctness of physical simulations to circumvent absolute forcing errors. Furthermore, a Physiographically Constrained Negative Sampling (PCNS) strategy and a PSO-optimized “Shallow Tree” configuration are introduced to enforce structural regularization against stochastic noise. Empirical results demonstrate that P-PDRF achieves superior generalization (AUC = 0.942), significantly outperforming standard Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Analytic Hierarchy Process models. Ablation studies confirm that the dynamic index outweighs the static Topographic Wetness Index in feature importance, effectively correcting topographic artifacts where static models misclassify arid depressions as high-risk zones. This study offers a scalable Physics-Informed Machine Learning solution for the global “Prediction in Ungauged Basins” initiative. Full article

Given the increasing frequency and intensity of floods, which are mostly caused by continuous climate change and growing human pressures on the environment, accurately identifying areas that are susceptible to flooding is a crucial priority for risk reduction and long-term land use planning. Thus, this research examines multilevel flood susceptibility mapping across North Macedonia, using 328 past flood occurrences, 14 conditioning variables derived from a digital elevation model, simplified lithology, and calculated direct runoff. The methodology integrates fuzzy set theory (Fuzzy), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), weighted linear combination (WLC), and random forest (RF) approaches. The two-stage process employs distinct sets of conditioning factors in sequential flood susceptibility mapping: first, generating Fuzzy/AHP/WLC predictions and pseudo-absence data, and second, producing five RF predictions by varying pseudo-absences and binary cutoffs. Validation results indicate that the very high susceptibility class (0.8–1.0) of the Fuzzy/AHP/WLC model predicted 46.6% of flood pixels within 31.6% of the total area. In comparison, the very high susceptibility class of the RF models predicted 88.5%, 78.3%, 60.6%, 48.5%, and 28.3% of flood pixels within 54.7%, 42.2%, 30.5%, 27.0%, and 25.1% of the total area, respectively. The RF models achieved area under the curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.850, with a maximum of 0.966. Additionally, areas of high and low uncertainty were highlighted using a standard deviation map created from the RF models, highlighting agreement/disagreement and potential locations for methodological improvement and focused sampling. The findings also highlight the potential of the multilevel technique for mapping flood susceptibility and call for more research into its potential for future studies and practical uses. Full article

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), through the process of snow accumulation, to snowmelt, to streamflow runoff, provides a critical water source to approximately 40 million residents in the Southwestern United States. Given the importance of late fall–winter–early spring (October, November, December, January, February, March, or ONDJFM), cumulative precipitation, future estimates of ONDJFM cumulative precipitation, and potential drought occurrence would provide a benefit to water managers and planners. Previous research efforts successfully reconstructed (extended the period of record) the regional April 1st Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in the UCRB using tree-ring chronologies and reconstructed climate (El Niño–Southern Oscillation or ENSO). The current research efforts differ by (a) incorporating future [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5] predictions of ONDJFM cumulative precipitation (in lieu of April 1st SWE) at a single station location (Kendall R.S.) in the UCRB; (b) reconstructing ONDJFM cumulative precipitation (in lieu of April 1st SWE) using tree-ring chronologies and ENSO; and (c) evaluating an alternative reconstructed ENSO index. The reconstructed record, recent past observations, and future (SSP 5-8.5) ONDJFM cumulative precipitation were then combined to provide a paleo perspective of future drought. Results indicate that extreme ONDJFM cumulative precipitation drought periods projected for the ~2040s were exceeded in the reconstructed record. A pattern of alternating wet and dry conditions was also identified, consisting of a wet (pluvial) period in the 2030s, followed by drought conditions in the 2040s, and another wet period in the 2050s. Many of the extreme future wet (pluvial) periods exceeded those in the recent record and reconstructed record. Full article

The synergistic impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) transformations and weather pattern variabilities (WPV) represent a primary driver of hydro-geological instability, threatening agricultural productivity, soil conservation, and water quality. Disentangling the discrete contributions of these stressors to runoff and sediment yield (SY) remains a significant challenge, particularly in complex, confluence-proximal watersheds lacking major hydraulic regulations. This study investigates the Tirumakudalu Narasipura watershed in Karnataka, India, an agriculturally intensive system undergoing rapid peri-urbanization. Leveraging the process-based geospatial interface of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP), we analyzed hydrological responses over a 24-year period (2000–2023) and projected future trajectories through 2030. To overcome the traditional constraints of GeoWEPP, which was developed for small-scale watersheds (<260 ha), we present a novel upscaling framework utilizing a multi-site multivariate temporal calibration of hydrological response variables to exploit its process-based precision in capturing distributed soil erosion and landscape heterogeneity. This approach is further reinforced by an ancillary data validation to minimize error propagation while model-upscaling. Our findings reveal projected increases in runoff and SY of 14.69% and 49.23%, respectively, between 2000 and 2030. Notably, the sub-decadal acceleration from 2023 to 2030 (17.32% for runoff and 18.51% for SY) underscores a shifting dominance where LULC-driven surface modifications now outweigh climatic variance in forcing hydrologic change. Furthermore, the study quantifies how anthropogenic interventions such as strategic crop selection, tillage intensity, and irrigation regimes act as critical determinants of topsoil preservation. These results provide a scalable, economically feasible framework for precision land stewardship and sustainable watershed management in rapidly developing tropical landscapes. Full article

This study aims to investigate the relationship between basin hydrology and estuarine processes such as dynamics that influence salinity and water quality in the Shatt Al-Arab River, southern Iraq. Extensive samplings were conducted at 25 sites along the river course over one hydrological year. Runoff estimates were obtained using the soil conservation service–curve number (SCS-CN) model. During winter, peak rainfall (76.8 mm month⁻¹) and runoff (12.38 mm month⁻¹) promote the shortest salt wedge extension (8 km) and the highest water quality (median water quality index (WQI) = 22). In contrast, during fall, minimal rainfall (6.51 mm month⁻¹) and runoff (0.14 mm month⁻¹) result in a salt wedge extension of 109 km and the lowest water quality (median WQI = 250). Strong correlations between rainfall–runoff estimates, salt wedge extension, and water quality parameters demonstrate that water quality status can be predicted using hydrological inputs alone. Thus, this study introduces a novel quantification of the flushing influence required to maintain the Shatt Al-Arab River’s ecological health. A strong (r² = 0.87) significant (p < 0.05) negative correlation was detected between the runoff coefficient (a proxy indicator of catchment wetness) and the standard deviation of WQI. Such a negative correlation implies that hydrological flushing fosters water quality stability. Principal component analysis (PCA) further revealed how natural and anthropogenic sources contribute to water quality. The findings illustrate how seasonal hydrological variability control mixing processes, salt wedge propagation, and water quality in estuarine-influenced river systems, presenting a framework adaptable to similar systems worldwide. Full article

Rapid agricultural expansion threatens water security in one of the world’s largest hydroelectric systems, the Itaipu dam, located on the Brazil–Paraguay border. Yet regional hydrological responses to land cover change and climate variability remain insufficiently characterized at management-relevant scales. The Upper Paraná River Basin (UPRB), which sustains agriculture, hydropower, and municipal water supply across both countries, exemplifies this challenge as accelerating cropland conversion raises concerns about long-term water availability. This study investigates hydrological transitions and their statistical associations with land cover changes in the Itaipu study region from 2002 to 2023. We integrate GRACE/GRACE-FO (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On), Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies (TWSAs), MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land cover, CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) precipitation, and LandScan population density using Pettitt’s breakpoint test and Mann–Kendall trend analysis to detect temporal breakpoints and quantify co-variability between hydrology and land surface dynamics. Together, these methods identify a significant basin-wide shift in TWSAs in mid-2009, with storage increases of 151.6 cm at Itaipu and 103.1 cm at Yguazú Reservoir. Over the study period, cropland expanded from 13.5% to 37.9% of total land cover, while savanna declined from 28.1% to 24.2%. After 2009, correlations between land cover and TWSAs strengthened substantially, particularly for wetlands (r = 0.88), croplands (r = 0.73), and savannas (r = −0.81; all p < 0.001), indicating strong coupling between landscape transformation and basin-scale storage variability. Principal Component Analysis shows land use change explains 39–41% of TWSA variance, exceeding hydroclimatic contributions. Granger causality analysis reveals bidirectional coupling between wetlands and water storage at Itaipu, while cropland and savanna dynamics exert predictive influence on downstream hydrology in the Yguazú basin. Water balance decomposition further indicates a post-2009 regime shift, with residual storage transitioning from −10.6 to +4.7 and 78% greater runoff generation per unit precipitation, consistent with reduced infiltration capacity. Together, these findings underscore intensifying land–water feedback and the need for adaptive watershed management under expanding agriculture and climate variability. Full article

Accurate runoff forecasting is essential for effective water resource management, hydropower operation, and flood risk mitigation. In this study, daily inflow runoff in the Xin’an River Basin, eastern China, was simulated using four ensemble learning models: Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), XGBoost, CatBoost, and Stacking. Among them, the CatBoost model achieved the best performance, with a correlation coefficient (CC) exceeding 0.97, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) above 0.95, and reduced RMSE and MAE compared with the currently operational hydrological model. To extend the forecast lead times, two hydro–meteorological coupled models were developed by integrating the CatBoost model with a single numerical weather prediction model (EC) and a dynamically weighted multi-model ensemble precipitation forecast system (OCF). The coupled models were evaluated for lead times up to 240 h. The forecast skill value was highest within 96 h, with CC values above 0.80 and NSE around 0.50. The OCF-coupled model demonstrated improved reliability for lead times of 48–96 h, whereas the EC-driven forecasts performed better within the first 48 h. Case studies during the 2021–2022 flood seasons confirmed that the coupled framework accurately reproduced flood evolution and peak discharge dynamics, demonstrating its practical value for medium-range runoff forecasting in humid river basins. Full article