Search Results (1,714)

This study presents a hybrid approach to hydrological forecasting by integrating the physically based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with Prophet time-series modeling and machine learning–based multi-output regression. Applied to the Cahaba watershed, the objective is to predict key environmental variables (precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and snowmelt) and their influence on hydrological responses (surface runoff, groundwater flow, soil water, sediment yield, and water yield) under present (2010–2022) and future (2030–2042) climate scenarios. Using SWAT outputs for calibration, the integrated SWAT-Prophet-ML model predicted ET and PET with RMSE values between 10 and 20 mm. Performance was lower for high-variability events such as precipitation (RMSE = 30–50 mm). Under current climate conditions, R² values of 0.75 (water yield) and 0.70 (surface runoff) were achieved. Groundwater and sediment yields were underpredicted, particularly during peak years. The model’s limitations relate to its dependence on historical trends and its limited representation of physical processes, which constrain its performance under future climate scenarios. Suggested improvements include scenario-based training and integration of physical constraints. The approach offers a scalable, data-driven method for enhancing monthly water balance prediction and supports applications in watershed planning. Full article

Frequency analysis is essential for designing hydraulic structures and managing water resources, as it helps assess hydrological extremes. However, changes in river basins can impact their accuracy, complicating the link between discharge and return periods. This study aims to comprehensively assess the probability characteristics of long-term M-day maximum/minimum discharges in the Carpathian region of Slovakia. We analyze the long-term data from 26 gauging stations covering 90 years of observation. Slovak rivers show considerable intra-annual variability, especially between the summer–autumn (SA) and winter–spring (WS) seasons. To allow consistent comparisons, we apply a uniform methodology to estimate T-year daily maximum and minimum specific discharges over durations of 1 and 7 days for both seasons. Our findings indicate that 1-day maximum specific discharges are generally higher during the SA season compared to the WS season. The 7-day minimum specific discharges are lower during the WS season compared to the SA season. Slovakia’s diverse orographic and climatic conditions cause significant spatial variability in extreme discharges. However, the estimated T-year 7-day minimum and 1-day maximum specific discharges, based on the mean specific discharge and the altitude of the water gauge, exhibit certain nonlinear dependences. These relationships could support the indirect estimation of T-year M-day discharges in regions with similar runoff characteristics. Full article

The use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model driven by China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets (CMADS) for runoff simulation research is of great significance for regional flood prevention and control. Therefore, from the perspective of production-living-ecological space, this article combined multi-source data such as DEM, soil texture and land use type, in order to construct scenarios of territorial spatial change (TSC) across distinct periods. Based on the CMADS-L40 data and the SWAT model, it simulated the runoff dynamics in the Xitiaoxi River Basin, and analyzed the hydrological response characteristics under different TSCs. The results showed that The SWAT model, driven by CMADS-L40 data, demonstrated robust performance in monthly runoff simulation. The coefficient of determination (R²), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), and the absolute value of percentage bias (|PBIAS|) during the calibration and validation period all met the accuracy requirements of the model, which validated the applicability of CMADS-L40 data and the SWAT model for runoff simulation at the watershed scale. Changes in territorial spatial patterns are closely correlated with runoff variation. Changes in agricultural production space and forest ecological space show statistically significant negative correlation with runoff change, while industrial production space change exhibits a significant positive correlation with runoff change. The expansion of production space, particularly industrial production space, leads to increased runoff, whereas the enlargement of agricultural production space and forest ecological space can reduce runoff. This article contributes to highlighting the role of land use policy in hydrological regulation, providing a scientific basis for optimizing territorial spatial planning to mitigate flood risks and protect water resources. Full article

Strobilurins are a prominent class of fungicides capable of entering aquatic environments via runoff and leaching from the soil. Findings from previous studies suggest that strobilurins are highly toxic in aquatic environments, and evidence of acute developmental toxicity and altered behavioral responses have been emphasized. The objective here was to determine the effects of a new strobilurin, metyltetraprole (MTP), on zebrafish using developmental endpoints, gene expression, and behavioral locomotor assays. We hypothesized that MTP would cause developmental toxicity and induce hyperactivity in zebrafish (Danio rerio). To test this, developing zebrafish embryos/larvae were exposed to environmentally relevant levels of MTP (0.1, 1, 10, and 100 µg/L) until 7 days post-fertilization. Survival percentages did not differ among the treatment groups. No change in reactive oxygen species production was detected, but two genes involved in the mitochondrial electron transport chain (mt-nd3 and uqcrc2) were altered in abundance following MTP exposure. Moreover, the highest concentration (100 µg/L) of MTP caused notable hyperactivity in the zebrafish in the visual motor response test. Overall, results from this study increase our knowledge regarding sub-lethal effects of MTP, helping inform risk assessment for aquatic environments. Full article

Tebuconazole (TBZ), a triazole-class fungicide widely used in agriculture, is frequently detected in aquatic environments due to runoff and leaching, where it poses a threat to non-target aquatic organisms. This study investigates the acute toxicity of TBZ on juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a commercially important cold-water fish species. The 96 h LC₅₀ value was determined to be 9.05 mg/L using probit analysis. In addition to mortality, the physiological responses of fish exposed to both LC₅₀ and maximum tolerance concentration (MTC; 6 mg/L) were evaluated through haematological and histological assessments. TBZ exposure significantly suppressed key haematological parameters, particularly WBC, RBC, HGB, HCT, and LYM, indicating immunosuppression and potential hypoxia. Histological examination revealed progressive and regressive damage in gill tissues, including epithelial lifting, hyperplasia, and hypertrophy, which were more severe in the LC₅₀ group. These alterations were quantified using a semi-quantitative scoring system. Additionally, significant changes in biochemical parameters such as ALT, AST, creatinine, total protein, and glucose levels were observed, further indicating hepatic and renal dysfunctions induced by TBZ exposure. The findings demonstrate that TBZ exposure induces substantial physiological and structural impairments in rainbow trout, highlighting the importance of assessing the ecological risks of fungicide contamination in aquatic environments. The study also provides a dose–response model that can be used to estimate mortality risk in aquaculture operations exposed to TBZ. Full article

Rizhao Reservoir, Shandong Province, China, as a key regional water supply hub, provides water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses in and around Rizhao City by intercepting runoff, which plays a central role in guaranteeing water supply security and supporting regional development. This study systematically collected 66 surface water samples to elucidate the hydrochemical characteristics within the reservoir area, identify the principal influencing factors, and clarify the sources of dissolved ions, aiming to enhance the understanding of the prevailing water quality conditions. A systematic analysis of hydrochemical facies, solute provenance, and governing processes in the study area’s surface water was conducted, employing an integrated mathematical and statistical approach, comprising Piper trilinear diagrams, correlation analysis, and ionic ratios. Meanwhile, the entropy weight-based water quality index (EWQI) and irrigation water quality evaluation methods were employed to assess the surface water quality in the study area quantitatively. Analytical results demonstrate that the surface water system within the study area is classified as freshwater with circumneutral to slightly alkaline properties, predominantly characterized by Ca-HCO₃ and Ca-Mg-SO₄-Cl hydrochemical facies. The evolution of solute composition is principally governed by rock–water interactions, whereas anthropogenic influences and cation exchange processes exert comparatively minor control. Dissolved ions mostly originate from silicate rock weathering, carbonate rock dissolution, and sulfate mineral dissolution processes. Potability assessment via the entropy-weighted water quality index (EWQI) classifies surface waters in the study area as Grade I (Excellent), indicating compliance with drinking water criteria under defined boundary conditions. Irrigation suitability analysis confirms minimal secondary soil salinization risk during controlled agricultural application, with all samples meeting standards for direct irrigation use. Full article

Lake Chinchaycocha, Peru’s second-largest high-altitude lake and a Ramsar-designated wetland of international importance, is increasingly threatened by anthropogenic pollution and hydroclimatic shifts. This study integrates Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery with in situ water quality data from Peru’s National Water Observatory to assess spatiotemporal dynamics in 31 physicochemical parameters between 2018 and 2024. We evaluated 40 empirical algorithms developed globally for Sentinel-2 and tested their transferability to this ultraoligotrophic Andean system. The results revealed limited predictive accuracy, underscoring the need for localized calibration. Subsequently, we developed and validated site-specific models for ammoniacal nitrogen, electrical conductivity, major ions, and trace metals, achieving high predictive performance during the rainy season (R² up to 0.95). Notably, the study identifies consistent seasonal correlations—such as between total copper and ammoniacal nitrogen—and strong spectral responses in Band 1, linked to runoff dynamics. These findings highlight the potential of combining public monitoring data with remote sensing to enable scalable, cost-effective assessment of water quality in optically complex, high-Andean lakes. The study provides a replicable framework for integrating national datasets into operational monitoring and environmental policy. Full article

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are increasingly recognized as strategic alternatives and complements to grey infrastructure for addressing water-related challenges in the context of climate change, urbanization, and biodiversity decline. This article presents a critical, theory-informed review of the state of NbS implementation in European water management, drawing on a structured synthesis of empirical evidence from regional case studies and policy frameworks. The analysis found that while NbS are effective in reducing surface runoff, mitigating floods, and improving water quality under low- to moderate-intensity events, their performance remains uncertain under extreme climate scenarios. Key gaps identified include the lack of long-term monitoring data, limited assessment of NbS under future climate conditions, and weak integration into mainstream planning and financing systems. Existing evaluation frameworks are critiqued for treating NbS as static interventions, overlooking their ecological dynamics and temporal variability. In response, a dynamic, climate-resilient assessment model is proposed—grounded in systems thinking, backcasting, and participatory scenario planning—to evaluate NbS adaptively. Emerging innovations, such as hybrid green–grey infrastructure, adaptive governance models, and novel financing mechanisms, are highlighted as key enablers for scaling NbS. The article contributes to the scientific literature by bridging theoretical and empirical insights, offering region-specific findings and recommendations based on a comparative analysis across diverse European contexts. These findings provide conceptual and methodological tools to better design, evaluate, and scale NbS for transformative, equitable, and climate-resilient water governance. Full article

This paper presents the results of studies on intra-annual runoff changes in the Ile River basin based on data from gauging stations up to 2021. Changes in climatic characteristics that determine runoff formation in the mountainous and foothill areas of the river catchment have led to alterations in the water regime of the watercourses. The analysis of the temporal and spatial patterns of river flow formation in the basin, as well as its distribution by seasons and months, is essential for solving applied water management problems and assessing the risks of hazardous hydrological phenomena, such as high floods and low water levels. The statistical analysis of annual and monthly river runoff fluctuations enabled the identification of relatively homogeneous estimation periods during stationary observations under varying climatic conditions. The obtained characteristics of annual and intra-annual river runoff in the Ile River basin for the modern period provide insights into changes in average monthly water discharge and, more broadly, runoff volume during different phases of the water regime. In the future, these characteristics are expected to guide the design of hydraulic structures and the rational use of surface runoff in this intensively developing region of Kazakhstan. Full article

Intensive irrigation in arid and semi-arid regions can cause significant environmental issues, including salinity, waterlogging, and water quality deterioration. Watershed modeling helps us understand essential water balance components in these areas. This study implemented a modified SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model tailored to capture irrigation practices within a 15,900 km² area of the Arkansas River Basin from 1990 to 2014. The model analyzed key water balance elements: surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, lateral flow, and groundwater return flow, distinguishing between wet and dry years. Over 90% of precipitation is consumed by evapotranspiration. The average watershed water yield comprises 19% surface runoff, 39% groundwater return flow, and 42% lateral flow. Various irrigation scenarios were simulated, revealing that transitioning from flood to sprinkler irrigation reduced surface runoff by over 90% without affecting crop water availability in the intensively irrigated region of the watershed. Canal sealing scenarios showed substantial groundwater return flow reductions: approximately 15% with 20% sealing and around 57% with 80% sealing. Scenario-based analyses like these provide valuable insights for optimizing water resource management in intensively irrigated watersheds. Full article

Flood hazards have increasingly threatened the East Kazakhstan region in recent decades due to climate change and growing anthropogenic pressures, leading to more frequent and severe flooding events. This article considers an approach to modeling and forecasting river runoff using the example of the small Kurchum River in the East Kazakhstan region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the numerical performance of the flood hazard model by comparing simulated flood extents with observed flood data. Two types of data were used as initial data: topographic data (digital elevation models and topographic maps) and hydrological data, including streamflow time series from stream gauges (hourly time steps) and lateral inflows along the river course. Spatially distributed rainfall forcing was not applied. To build the model, we used the software packages of HEC-RAS version 5.0.5 and MIKE version 11. Using retrospective data for 3 years (2019–2021), modeling was performed, the calculated boundaries of possible flooding were obtained, and the highest risk zones were identified. A dynamic map of depth changes in the river system is presented, showing the process of flood wave propagation, the dynamics of depth changes, and the expansion of the flood zone. Temporal flood inundation mapping and performance metrics were evaluated for each individual flood event (2019, 2020, and 2021). The simulation outcomes closely correlate with actual flood events. The assessment showed that the model data coincide with the real ones by 91.89% (2019), 89.09% (2020), and 95.91% (2021). The obtained results allow for a clarification of potential flood zones and can be used in planning measures to reduce flood risks. This study demonstrates the importance of an integrated approach to modeling, combining various software packages and data sources. Full article

The article presents a long-term assessment of the surface water quality of six small rivers in the East Kazakhstan region (Breksa, Tikhaya, Ulba, Glubochanka, Krasnoyarka, and Oba) based on hydrochemical monitoring data from the Kazhydromet State Enterprise for the period 2017–2024. A unified water quality classification system was applied, along with statistical methods, including multiple linear regression. The Glubochanka and Krasnoyarka rivers were identified as the most polluted (reaching classes 4–5), with multiple exceedances of Zn (up to 2.96 mg/dm³), Cd (up to 0.8 mg/dm³), and Cu (up to 0.051 mg/dm³). The most stable and highest water quality was recorded in the Oba River, where from 2021 to 2024, water consistently corresponded to Class 2. Regression models of water quality class as a function of time and annual precipitation were constructed to assess the influence of climatic factors. Statistical analysis revealed no consistent linear correlation between average annual precipitation and water quality (correlation coefficients ranging from −0.49 to +0.37), indicating a complex interplay between climatic and anthropogenic factors. Significant relationships were found for the Breksa (R² = 0.903), Glubochanka (R² = 0.602), and Tikhaya (R² = 0.555) rivers, suggesting an influence of temporal and climatic factors on water quality. In contrast, the Oba (R² = 0.130), Ulba (R² = 0.100), and Krasnoyarka (R² = 0.018) rivers exhibited low coefficients, indicating the predominance of other, likely local, sources of pollution. It was found that summer periods are characterized by the highest pollution due to low water flow, while episodes of acid runoff occur in spring. A decrease in pH below 7.0 was first recorded in 2023–2024 in the Ulba and Tikhaya rivers. Forecasts to 2030 suggest relative stability in water quality under current climatic conditions; however, by 2050, the risk of water quality deterioration is expected to rise due to increased precipitation and extreme weather events. This study presents, for the first time, a systematic long-term analysis of small rivers in the East Kazakhstan region, offering deeper insight into the dynamics of surface water quality and providing a scientific foundation for developing adaptive strategies for the protection and sustainable use of water resources under climate change and anthropogenic pressure. The results emphasize the importance of prioritizing rivers with high variability in water quality for regular monitoring and the development of adaptive conservation measures. The research holds strong applied significance for shaping a sustainable water use strategy in the region. Full article

Understanding soil infiltration at the watershed level is crucial to hydrological studies, as it significantly influences surface runoff, groundwater replenishment, and ecosystem sustainability. Research in this area—particularly employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)—has seen sustained scholarly interest, with an upward trend in related publications. This study analyzed 141 peer-reviewed articles from the Web of Science (WOS) Core Collection. By applying bibliometric techniques through CiteSpace visualization software, it explored the key themes and emerging directions in the use of the SWAT model for soil infiltration studies across watersheds. Findings revealed that this field integrates multiple disciplines. Notably, the Journal of Hydrology and Hydrological Processes emerged as two of the most impactful publication venues. Researchers and institutions from the United States, China, and Ethiopia were the core contributors to this area. “Land use” and “climate change” are currently the hotspots of interest in this field. There are three development trends: (1) The scale of research is continuously expanding. (2) The research subjects are diversified, ranging from initially focusing on agricultural watersheds to surrounding areas such as hillsides, grasslands, and forests. (3) The research content becomes more systematic, emphasizing regional coordination and ecological sustainability. Overall, the research on soil infiltration at the watershed scale using the SWAT model presents a promising and thriving field. This study provides researchers with a framework that objectively presents the research hotspots and trends in this area, serving as a valuable resource for advancing academic inquiry in this domain. Full article

Reliable gridded precipitation products (GPPs) are essential for effective hydrological simulations, particularly in mountainous regions with limited ground-based observations. This study evaluates the performance of two widely used GPPs, CHIRPS and ERA5, in estimating precipitation and supporting runoff generation using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) across three headwater catchments (Sill, Drava and Isel) in the Austrian Alps from 1991 to 2018. The region’s complex topography and climatic variability present a rigorous test for GPP application. The evaluation methods combined point-to-point comparisons with gauge observations and assessments of generated runoff and runoff trends at annual, seasonal and monthly scales. CHIRPS showed a lower precipitation error (RMAE = 25%) and generated more consistent runoff results (RMAE = 12%), particularly in smaller catchments, whereas ERA5 showed higher spatial consistency but higher overall precipitation bias (RMAE = 37%). Although both datasets successfully reproduced the seasonal runoff regime, CHIRPS outperformed ERA5 in trend detection and monthly runoff estimates. Both GPPs systematically overestimate annual and seasonal precipitation amounts, especially at lower elevations and during the cold season. The results highlight the critical influence of GPP spatial resolution and its alignment with catchment morphology on model performance. While both products are viable alternatives to observed precipitation, CHIRPS is recommended for hydrological modelling in smaller, topographically complex alpine catchments due to its higher spatial resolution. Despite its higher precipitation bias, ERA5’s superior correlation with observations suggests strong potential for improved model performance if bias correction techniques are applied. The findings emphasize the importance of selecting GPPs based on the scale and geomorphological and climatic conditions of the study area. Full article

Flow regulation and water quality maintenance are considered ecosystem services, as they provide environmental benefits with a measurable economic value to society. Distributed or semi-distributed hydrological models can help identify where land use decisions yield the greatest economic and environmental returns related to water resources. For these reasons, this study integrated simulations performed with the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model under varying land use conditions, aiming to balance potential benefits with the loss of ecosystem services. Among the tested parameters, those associated with surface runoff showed the highest sensitivity in simulating streamflow for the Jundiaí River Basin. Based on the statistical indicators R², Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS), and Percent Bias (PBIAS), the SWAT model demonstrated a reliable performance in replicating observed streamflows on a monthly scale, even with limited spatially distributed input data. Scenario 2, which involved converting 15% of pasture/agricultural land into forest, yielded the most favorable hydrological outcomes by increasing soil water infiltration and aquifer recharge while reducing surface runoff and sediment yield. These findings highlight the value of reforestation and land use planning as effective strategies for improving watershed hydrological performance and ensuring long-term water sustainability. Full article