Search Results (73)

Accurate sea surface wind forecasts are essential for marine disaster prevention, maritime economic activities, and renewable energy development. However, traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often encounter limitations such as nonlinear error accumulation and systematic biases during long-lead-time integration. Consequently, this study develops a spatiotemporal deep learning post-processing framework based on state space mechanisms, utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data to correct errors in 0–72 h NWP 10 m wind speed forecasts over the Northwest Pacific and adjacent regions (0–90° N, 100–150° E). Evaluations against mainstream spatiotemporal deep learning models indicate that the proposed framework improves the forecast accuracy and spatial consistency of the NWP. Regarding overall error control, the post-processing model reduces the root mean square error (RMSE) of the raw NWP from 1.47 m/s to 1.10 m/s for 24 h forecasts. Meanwhile, during the 72 h long-lead-time integration, the pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of the forecasted wind field is maintained at 0.86, and the overall systematic bias converges from −0.27 m/s to −0.02 m/s. Additionally, the framework effectively mitigates the over-prediction of gale-force winds, reducing the false alarm ratio (FAR) by 30–50% compared to the raw NWP. These results indicate that the proposed deep learning post-processing strategy effectively corrects underlying systematic biases in numerical models, thereby enhancing the accuracy and reliability of long-term wind field forecasts. Full article

The application of ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC) in the hogging moment region significantly enhances the crack resistance of concrete slabs of composite girders with integrated piers, while also providing economic benefits. To investigate the crack resistance performance and develop a calculation method for crack width in hogging moment region of steel–UHPC–normal concrete (NC) composite girders, a full-scale bending test was conducted. Based on the test results, the post-cracking residual tensile strength of UHPC was determined according to the energy equivalence principle. A calculation method for reinforcement stress incorporating the tensile contribution of UHPC at a cracked section was proposed and then the applicability for current design codes for crack width calculation was evaluated. For the UHPC–NC interface, a corresponding crack width calculation method was developed. The results indicate that cracks initiated on the surface of the NC layer beneath the UHPC overlay at the cantilever root. Then cracks developed in sequence at the top surface of the UHPC layer cantilever root, the UHPC–NC interface, and the mid-plane of the girder-to-pier joint. Ultimately, UHPC cracks exhibited a “numerous and closely spaced” distribution, whereas NC cracks were “few and widely spaced.” When the residual tensile strength of UHPC at cracked section was considered, the mean value and average coefficient of variation in the ratios of calculated to measured reinforcement stresses for different sections were 1.07 and 0.10, respectively, which can be further used for crack width calculation. The mean ratios of code-predicted to measured UHPC crack widths for different sections using the Chinese code, French code, and European code were 1.10, 0.98, and 1.13, respectively, with corresponding average coefficients of variation of 0.25, 0.33, and 0.28; the Chinese code is recommended for UHPC crack width prediction. For the UHPC–NC interface, an expression for crack width calculation was derived using the comprehensive theory, and the mean ratio of calculated to measured values and the coefficient of variation were 1.08 and 0.18, respectively, demonstrating good predictive accuracy. Full article

In the context of the global urban transition towards stock-based regeneration (a shift from outward urban expansion to the redevelopment of existing built environments), the provision of public service facilities is facing a paradigm shift from mere physical spatial implementation to sustainable long-term operation. Traditional planning pathways heavily rely on static spatial allocation policies and upfront indicator compliance, yet systematically neglect the dynamic adaptability of facilities throughout their entire life cycles. Taking the megacity of Guangzhou, China, as a longitudinal case study, this paper reveals a typical compliance versus failure paradox—a situation where facilities strictly meet technical planning standards on paper but fail to deliver intended social welfare outcomes in practice. Using early comprehensive redevelopment projects like Liede Village as examples, the public service facilities strictly met the statutory allocation standard (5.7%) during the construction phase. However, after more than a decade of operation, these facilities have exhibited severe structural supply–demand mismatches and long-term operational dilemmas. To address this issue, this study proposes a four-dimensional governance framework—Value, Actor, Space, Institution (VASI)—that transcends traditional spatial perspectives. Through an in-depth analysis of the Guangzhou case using this framework, the research confirms that the root causes of the compliance failure lie in the absence of life-cycle costing (a method of assessing the total financial cost of facility ownership over its entire lifespan), the severe structural misalignment of rights and responsibilities between construction and operation actors, and the long-term void in post-occupancy evaluation feedback mechanisms. This paper argues that the planning of public service facilities in high-density megacities must achieve a theoretical leap from rigid upfront technical allocation to adaptive whole-life-cycle systemic governance, providing theoretical references and a practical guide for global cities facing similar stock-based regeneration challenges as they move towards equitable and socio-economically sustainable urban regeneration. Full article

Persistent territorial disparities across regions suggest that economic and geographic explanations alone cannot account for uneven development outcomes. This paper advances a theoretical framework that conceptualises territorial inequality as a governance-produced outcome, shaped by institutional configurations that distribute power, voice, and decision-making authority across space. The study introduces bottom-up capacity as an analytical criterion to assess how territorial governance models enable or constrain citizen agency, grassroots initiatives, and territorially balanced development. Four ideal-typical governance models—centralised, decentralised, collaborative, and participatory—are comparatively evaluated in terms of their institutional openness, mechanisms of power devolution, and potential to redirect development toward marginalised territories. The paper argues that governance models function as structural filters shaping whose knowledge is recognised, where resources flow, and which territorial priorities are legitimised. By linking governance design to spatial justice and territorial cohesion, the framework provides a novel conceptual lens for understanding the governance roots of spatial inequality and establishes an agenda for future empirical research on bottom-up territorial development. Full article

Primary succession following glacier retreat provides a natural system for testing whether soil development simply shifts fine roots along a single acquisitive–conservative axis orinstead changes the nutrient-acquisition pathway that dominates at the community level. We hypothesized a stage-dependent sequence, from substrate-limited exploration, to transient morphological capture, and finally to rhizosphere-mediated biochemical mobilization. To test this idea, we quantified fine-root morphology, absorptive-transport partitioning, anatomy, phosphatase activity, exudation, community-scale belowground structure, and soil and rhizosphere properties across woody communities representing approximately 20, 40, and 90 years since deglaciation in the Hailuogou Glacier foreland. Across succession stages, bulk density and pH declined, whereas field capacity, soil carbon, and soil nitrogen increased, indicating rapid development of the belowground resource environment. Fine-root strategies did not fall along a single acquisitive–conservative continuum. Instead, morphological nutrient capture peaked at intermediate succession: the 40-year stage had the highest specific root length, specific root area, absorptive-to-transport root length ratio, and root nitrogen concentration. In contrast, the 90-year stage showed lower specific root length but higher dry matter content, thicker cortex, greater standing fine-root biomass, larger rhizosphere volume, higher phosphatase activity, and greater area-based carbon exudation. This late-successional syndrome coincided with stronger extracellular enzyme activity, larger dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen pools, and higher microbial biomass, despite negative net nitrogen mineralization. Species-level analyses showed that biochemical-input traits were jointly shaped by successional stage, species identity, and their interaction. Together, these results show that primary succession did not simply increase or decrease root acquisitiveness. Instead, as soils developed, it changed the nutrient-acquisition pathway that dominated, with direct implications for nutrient cycling and vegetation dynamics in rapidly developing glacier-foreland ecosystems. Full article

Modeling and forecasting nonstationary and nonlinear economic time series remain fundamentally challenging due to structural breaks, volatility clustering, and noise contamination that distort the intrinsic stochastic structure. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel three-stage hybrid statistical framework that systematically integrates multi-level signal decomposition with structured parametric modeling to enhance predictive accuracy. The proposed hybrid architectures—EMD–EEMD–ARIMA, EMD–EEMD–GMDH, and EMD–EEMD–ETS—employ a hierarchical decomposition–reconstruction strategy before forecasting. In the first stage, Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) decomposes the observed series into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual component. In the second stage, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) is applied to further refine the extracted components, mitigating mode mixing and improving signal separability. In the final stage, each reconstructed component is modeled using ARIMA, Exponential Smoothing State Space (ETS), and Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) frameworks, and the individual forecasts are aggregated to obtain the final prediction. Empirical evaluation based on a recursive one-step-ahead forecasting scheme demonstrates consistent numerical improvements across all standard accuracy measures. In particular, the proposed EMD–EEMD–ARIMA model achieves the lowest forecasting error, reducing the root-mean-square error (RMSE) by approximately 6–7% relative to the best-performing single-stage model and by about 3–4% relative to the two-stage EMD-based hybrids. Similar improvements are observed in mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), indicating enhanced stability and robustness of the three-stage architecture. The results provide strong numerical evidence that multi-level decomposition combined with structured statistical modeling yields superior predictive performance for complex nonlinear and nonstationary time series. The proposed framework offers a mathematically coherent, computationally tractable, and systematically structured hybrid modeling strategy that effectively integrates noise-assisted decomposition with parametric and data-driven forecasting techniques. Full article

Since At-Turaif’s inscription as a World Heritage Site in 2010, Al-Diriyah and its peripheries have witnessed massive urban development. With the recently proposed Wadi Safar project, the expansion of Al-Diriyah has taken another turn, as it is conceptualized as a luxury driven mixed-use district, integrating cultural experiences that are rooted in the past. This research examines the urban development of Al-Diriyah through the lens of the Experience Economy Model (1998), in which value is derived not just from objects or spaces but from the memorable and immersive experiences they tend to incorporate. This study employs a qualitative-case study methodology structured through a five-phase analytical framework that spans from 2010 to 2025/2030. Utilizing a deductive qualitative approach, the analysis demonstrates a differentiated application of the four experiential realms of the Experience Economy Model across the study sites. While At-Turaif predominantly engages two experiential dimensions and the broader regeneration of Al-Diriyah incorporates three, the planned development of Wadi Safar is designed to encompass all four dimensions of the Experience Economy. This configuration produces a balanced spectrum of active and passive participation as well as absorption and immersion, positioning Wadi Safar within Al-Diriyah’s broader transformation into the world’s largest heritage-led urban development. The findings contribute to the theme of a thriving economy of KSA Vision 2030 by advancing heritage-oriented experience as a pathway towards economic diversification. Full article

Soil fungi play a pivotal role in maintaining ecosystem functions and regulating plant health. Although plant root traits can significantly impact the abundance and diversity of different fungal groups, the mechanism by which plant root strategies drive the assembly of soil fungal guilds remains limited. Utilizing Root Economics Space theory, this study investigates how four green manures (hairy vetch, rye, radish, and rapeseed) with contrasting root functional strategies (along the ‘fast–slow’ and ‘outsourcing–DIY’ axes) regulate the composition and functional structure of soil fungal communities. Community characteristics of three functional guilds (plant pathogens, saprophytes, and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi), as well as relationships between these communities and plant root traits, were evaluated using a combination of Illumina high-throughput sequencing, functional annotation, and multivariate statistical analysis. Overall, different root strategies were associated with distinct fungal community patterns, potentially related to differences in root-derived resource inputs and soil properties. The ‘slow’ and ‘DIY’ strategies were associated with lower relative abundance of plant pathogenic fungi and higher relative abundance of saprotrophic fungi, whereas the ‘fast’ and ‘outsourcing’ strategies were associated with higher relative abundance of plant pathogens and AMF. These findings suggest that root functional strategies may help explain variation in fungal guild composition under different green manure species. From a practical perspective, the results provide a basis for selecting green manure species to help manage soil-borne disease risk, regulate beneficial soil microbial communities, and support more sustainable soil management in agricultural production. Full article

A major obstacle to sustainable land management in ecologically sensitive areas is our limited understanding of the complex nonlinear mechanisms and threshold effects that dictate trade-offs between land use functions (LUFs). This study takes the Funiu Mountain area, a typical ecologically sensitive area in China, as a case study. At the township scale, the spatiotemporal patterns of LUFs from 2000 to 2020 were assessed based on the “production-living-ecological” function framework. The root mean square error (RMSE) model was introduced to quantify inter-functional trade-off intensity. Furthermore, the optimal parameters geographical detector (OPGD) and generalized additive model (GAM) were innovatively coupled to systematically analyze their driving mechanisms and nonlinear threshold effects. The results indicate that: (1) LUFs show clear functional complementarity and spatial game characteristics. The production function (PF) exhibits a heterogeneous pattern of “locally high, overall low”; the living function (LF) shows a local central agglomeration feature; and the ecological function (EF) displays a continuous gradient distribution of “high in the northwest, low in the southeast”. (2) The trade-off intensities between PF&EF and LF&EF are relatively strong, with high-value areas mainly distributed in the high-altitude central regions; while the trade-off intensity of PF&LF is weaker, with high-value areas mostly appearing in the central urban areas of each county. (3) The spatial heterogeneity of the trade-off relationship of LUFs is a comprehensive manifestation of the combined effects of the natural environment, socio-economic factors, and landscape patterns. The driving mechanisms of trade-off intensity among different functions show significant heterogeneity. (4) Key driving factors have significant nonlinear threshold effects. POP shows a complex dynamic regulatory effect with multiple thresholds and strong nonlinearity, while SLOPE, PET, and NDVI continuously play a fundamental constraining role in the trade-offs related to ecological functions. The key thresholds identified in this study can provide a direct scientific basis for regional differentiated territorial space governance. Full article

Spatial disparities in housing values during the Great Depression reflect not only regional housing market conditions but also deeper inequalities in economic opportunity, social infrastructure, and environmental resilience that are central to place-based sustainability. Despite extensive research on housing inequality during this period, spatial disparities in housing values—particularly in relation to race beyond the neighborhood level—remain underexplored. This study examines county-level spatial disparities in housing values in the United States between 1930 and 1940, framing housing values as an indicator of place-based sustainability. Using spatial visualization, global and local spatial econometric models, and Multi-Scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), we analyze how economic shocks, environmental stressors, and socioeconomic and demographic factors jointly shaped uneven housing outcomes across space. Our findings reveal distinct regional trends: higher housing values were concentrated in the Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast, while lower values prevailed in the Mountain and Southern regions. Housing values declined from 1930 to 1940, with the Dust Bowl intensifying losses in affected areas. Socioeconomic factors, such as higher illiteracy and unemployment rates, were associated with lower housing values, whereas higher retail sales per capita, a proxy for income, were linked to higher values. Housing values also varied significantly by racial and nativity composition, with persistent disparities disadvantaging Black and other minority populations relative to native White populations within the same regions. By quantifying spatial inequality and identifying uneven regional vulnerability and resilience during a major historical crisis, this study contributes a place-based sustainability perspective on long-term housing inequality and its structural roots. Full article

This study examines the social, economic and cultural impacts that Latin American women face due to climate-induced displacement, considering these impacts as arenas of conflict and negotiation. Using an intersectional framework, the study analyses how climate disasters exacerbate structural inequalities rooted in patriarchal systems, thereby constraining women’s adaptive capacity while simultaneously catalysing resistance strategies. Through a comparative analysis of Bangladesh and the Dry Corridor in Central America using a Gender Vulnerability Index (GVI), the study reveals that displaced women navigate contested spaces, disputing access to resources, legal recognition and territorial belonging, while constructing transnational solidarity networks and cooperative economies. The emergence of women climate refugees challenges international legal frameworks, exposing critical gaps in protection regimes. The findings emphasise the need for gender-responsive policies that recognise women as transformative agents who negotiate power asymmetries in contexts of environmental crisis, not merely as vulnerable populations. This research contributes to our understanding of the nexus between climate change, gender and migration by foregrounding the dialectic of domination and agency in Latin American displacement processes. Full article

Current mainstream remote sensing approaches to forest age estimation frequently neglect interspecific differences in functional traits, which may limit the accurate representation of species-specific tree growth strategies. This study develops and validates a technical framework that incorporates multi-source remote sensing and tree species functional trait heterogeneity to systematically improve the accuracy of plantation age mapping. We constructed a processing chain—“multi-source feature fusion–species identification–heterogeneity modeling”—for a typical karst plantation landscape in southeastern Yunnan. Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, we integrated Sentinel-1/2 and Landsat time-series data, implemented a Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) algorithm for species classification, and built age estimation models that incorporate species identity as a proxy for the growth strategy heterogeneity delineated by the Plant Economic Spectrum (PES) theory. Key results indicate: (1) Species classification reached an overall accuracy of 89.34% under spatial block cross-validation, establishing a reliable basis for subsequent modeling. (2) The operational model incorporating species information achieved an R² (coefficient of determination) of 0.84 (RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) = 6.52 years) on the test set, demonstrating a substantial improvement over the baseline model that ignored species heterogeneity (R² = 0.62). This demonstrates that species identity serves as an effective proxy for capturing the growth strategy heterogeneity described by the Plant Economic Spectrum (PES) theory, which is both distinguishable and valuable for modeling within the remote sensing feature space. (3) Error propagation analysis demonstrated strong robustness to classification uncertainties (γ = 0.23). (4) Plantation structure in the region was predominantly young-aged, with forests aged 0–20 years covering over 70% of the area. Despite inherent uncertainties in ground-reference age data, the integrated framework exhibited clear relative superiority, improving R² from 0.62 to 0.84. Both error propagation analysis (γ = 0.23) and Monte Carlo simulations affirmed the robustness of the tandem workflow and the stability of the findings, providing a reliable methodology for improved-accuracy plantation carbon sink quantification. Full article

Al-Madafah (the guesthouse) is a cornerstone of the cultural and social fabric of Sweida Province in southern Syria. Rooted in the Druze community’s history following their settlement in Jabal al-Arab in the 17th century, these structures have served as spaces for hospitality, cultural exchange, political resistance, and community cohesion. Despite their significance, scholarly research on Madafahs in Sweida remains limited. This article examines their architectural design, socio-cultural roles, and historical evolution to uncover this understudied tradition and advance conservation efforts for this heritage. Combining archival research, case studies, and oral histories from residents and experts, this study employs narrative analysis to decode the cultural meanings embedded in these spaces. Findings reveal that Madafahs are more than architectural landmarks; they serve as living embodiments of resilience, cultural pride, and communal identity, fostering social cohesion, while their basalt stone construction reflects Jabal al-Arab’s vernacular heritage. Historically, they hosted revolutionary activities against colonial rule. Today, urbanisation and economic pressures threaten their traditional role, yet they endure as symbols of continuity. This study highlights Madafahs as valuable heritage sites and cradles for narratives of magnanimity and defiance. Collaborative efforts between stakeholders and policymakers could revitalise these spaces, ensuring that their legacy persists amid modern challenges. Full article

This research situates urban planning as a social well-being determinant, highlighting that cities function as social habitats that shape individuals’ quality of life, as well as being physical spaces. The study emphasises the dangers of inadequate urban management, particularly when it is based on biased or incomplete information. This has the potential to exacerbate inequality and undermine the benefits of urbanisation. The present study focuses on the intersection of gender, social roles, and access to basic infrastructure, including childcare centres, elderly facilities, healthcare services, pedestrian paths, street lighting, and green areas. By addressing this critical urban issue, namely the uneven distribution of opportunities for well-being, the study contributes to the existing body of knowledge in this field. The Capability Approach, developed primarily by Amartya Sen and Martha Nussbaum, provides a theoretical framework for evaluating individuals’ freedom to pursue the lives they value. Theories of subjective well-being (SWB) are rooted in psychological and economic traditions that assess individuals’ life satisfaction, happiness, and emotional equilibrium The present study proposes a methodological framework that integrates the Capability Approach with Subjective Well-Being theory. This approach facilitates a more comprehensive measurement of citizens’ well-being, transcending the limitations of traditional gender dichotomies. The study identifies the manner in which infrastructural design affects individual capabilities and demonstrates the manner in which urban policies can foster gender equality and inclusive socio-economic development. It is therefore evident that the research provides urban planners and policymakers with actionable insights by demonstrating that equitable infrastructure provision is a cornerstone of sustainable, socially just urban development. Full article

For several years now, urban planning practices have been marked by the proliferation of catchwords, serving as kinds of brands that promote the idea of easy, ready-made, one-size-fits-all ways to tackle planning problems. Among the most recent is the ‘15-Minute City’—sometimes presented as a saving ‘solution’ to the settlement issues of our time. This article develops a multifaceted discussion of the uncritical use of the 15-Minute City urban model through ten main objections. In a nutshell, these objections emphasize, first, the unavoidable contextual dimension of places when planning for proximity: urban conditions vary greatly in terms of space, society, and local economic and political settings—as forms and patterns of urbanization around the world may be incommensurable. Second, they challenge the idea that representing urban problems in contemporary urban regions, and their planning treatment, can be simplified to the neighborhood scale alone—cities are not just neighborhoods. Third, they point out that the principles of proximity in organizing urban settlements are not new, but deeply rooted in the history of urban planning, both in theory and practice. The ahistorical—and forgetful—dimension of contemporary urbanism, together with its branding rhetoric, emerges as one of its main issues, as well as one of its paradoxes and aporias. After a section reviewing the core of the current debate on the 15-Minute City model, the main body of the article discusses each of the ten objections in detail, grounding them in specific examples. In its final section, the article concludes by embracing a perspective of ‘openness of the city,’ where urban planning is not reduced to simple and quick formulas, but accepts the complex, historical, contextual, intrinsically political, and conflictual nature of ‘making urbanism,’ and its inevitable partiality. Full article