Search Results (1,151)

The use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model driven by China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets (CMADS) for runoff simulation research is of great significance for regional flood prevention and control. Therefore, from the perspective of production-living-ecological space, this article combined multi-source data such as DEM, soil texture and land use type, in order to construct scenarios of territorial spatial change (TSC) across distinct periods. Based on the CMADS-L40 data and the SWAT model, it simulated the runoff dynamics in the Xitiaoxi River Basin, and analyzed the hydrological response characteristics under different TSCs. The results showed that The SWAT model, driven by CMADS-L40 data, demonstrated robust performance in monthly runoff simulation. The coefficient of determination (R²), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), and the absolute value of percentage bias (|PBIAS|) during the calibration and validation period all met the accuracy requirements of the model, which validated the applicability of CMADS-L40 data and the SWAT model for runoff simulation at the watershed scale. Changes in territorial spatial patterns are closely correlated with runoff variation. Changes in agricultural production space and forest ecological space show statistically significant negative correlation with runoff change, while industrial production space change exhibits a significant positive correlation with runoff change. The expansion of production space, particularly industrial production space, leads to increased runoff, whereas the enlargement of agricultural production space and forest ecological space can reduce runoff. This article contributes to highlighting the role of land use policy in hydrological regulation, providing a scientific basis for optimizing territorial spatial planning to mitigate flood risks and protect water resources. Full article

Quantifying future changes in extreme events and associated flooding is challenging yet fundamental for stormwater managers. Along the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) is frequently exposed to catastrophic floods from extreme rainfall that is typically associated with tropical cyclones. This study presents a novel approach that uses rainfall data from five dynamically and statistically downscaled (DD and SD) global climate models under two scenarios to visualize a potential future extent of flooding in ENC. Here, we use DD data (at 36-km grid spacing) to compute future changes in precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (PIDF) curves at the end of the 21st century. These PIDF curves are further applied to observed rainfall from Hurricane Matthew—a landfalling storm that created widespread flooding across ENC in 2016—to project versions of “Matthew 2100” that reflect changes in extreme precipitation under those scenarios. Each Matthew-2100 rainfall distribution was then used in hydrologic models (HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS) to simulate “2100” discharges and flooding extents in the Neuse River Basin (4686 km²) in ENC. The results show that DD datasets better represented historical changes in extreme rainfall than SD datasets. The projected changes in ENC rainfall (up to 112%) exceed values published for the U.S. but do not exceed historical values. The peak discharges for Matthew-2100 could increase by 23–69%, with 0.4–3 m increases in water surface elevation and 8–57% increases in flooded area. The projected increases in flooding would threaten people, ecosystems, agriculture, infrastructure, and the economy throughout ENC. Full article

The introduction of the ”dual carbon” target has increased the need for products that can accurately measure carbon dioxide levels, reflecting the rising demand. Due to challenges in achieving the required spatiotemporal resolution, accuracy, and spatial continuity with current carbon dioxide concentration products, it is essential to explore methods for obtaining carbon dioxide concentration products with completeness in space and time. Based on the 2018 OCO-2 carbon dioxide products and environmental variables such as vegetation coverage (FVC, LAI), net primary productivity (NPP), relative humidity (RH), evapotranspiration (ET), temperature (T) and wind (U, V), this study constructed a multiple regression model to obtain the spatial continuous carbon dioxide concentration products in the provinces of Huai River Basin. Using indicators such as correlation coefficient, root mean square error (RMSE), local variance, and percentage of valid pixels, the performance of model was validated. The validation results are shown as follows: (1) Among the selected environmental variables, the primary factors affecting the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon dioxide concentration are ET, LAI, FVC, NPP, T, U, and RH. (2) Compared with the OCO-2 carbon dioxide products, the percentage of valid pixels of the reconstructed carbon dioxide concentration data increased from less than 1% to over 90%. (3) The local variance in reconstructed data was significantly larger than that of original OCO-2 ${\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}}_2$ products. (4) The average monthly RMSE is 2.69. Therefore, according to the model developed in this study, we can obtain a carbon dioxide concentration dataset that is spatially complete, meets precision requirements, and is rich in local detail information, which can better reflect the spatial pattern of carbon dioxide concentration and can be used to examine the carbon cycle between the terrestrial environment, biosphere, and atmosphere. Full article

In response to the dual challenges of the mechanical behavior of steel sheet pile cofferdam and sediment control in urban water intake projects, a multi-method integrated study was conducted based on the Nenjiang Project. The results show that the peak stress of FSP-IV steel sheet piles (64.3 MPa) is located at a depth of 5.5–8.0 m in the center of the foundation pit, and that the maximum horizontal displacement (6.96 mm) occurs at the middle of the side span of the F pile. The internal support stress increases with depth, reaching 87.2 MPa at the bottom, with significant stress concentration at the connection of the surrounding girder. The lack of support or excessively large spacing leads to insufficient stiffness at the side span (5.3 mm displacement at the F point) and right-angle area (B/H point). The simultaneously developed sediment control integrated system, through double-line water intake, layered placement of the geotextile filter, and the collaborative construction of the water intake hole–filter layer system, achieves a 75% reduction in sediment content and a decrease in standard deviation. This approach ensures stable water quality and continuous water supply, ultimately forming a systematic solution for water intake in high-sediment rivers. Full article

Although measurements of urban shrinkage in China have received much attention, most have relied on statistical yearbook data based on political–administrative city boundaries, and remote-sensing-based quantification is mainly one-dimensional. This has caused problems in incorporating rural areas and spatiotemporal inconsistencies, as well as an inadequate understanding, which has subsequently resulted in an inaccurate shrinkage identification. This study merely utilized the latest multisensory and time-series remote sensing data, including nighttime light, land use, and population grids, to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of multidimensional shrinkage based on the county-level urban entity mapping of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations (YRD-UAs) from 2003 to 2023. County-level urban entities were acquired from a pioneering mapping effort that utilized city-specific commuting distance and land use maps. The results demonstrated that urban entities in 215 counties grew at a generally slowing pace. The degree of economic, population, and space shrinkage was mainly slight, and the shrinking trajectory was dominated by temporary shrinkage. Most counties experienced population shrinkage in their coastal-oriented distribution, whereas economic shrinkage affected the fewest counties, with the lowest spatial clustering occurring northward. Population shrinkage also displayed the highest spatial autocorrelation, but its agglomeration weakened against space shrinkage clustering. This study concluded that the exclusive utilization of remote sensing products to measure urban-entity-based multidimensional shrinkage reduced the uncertainty associated with rural area inclusion and resulted in satisfactory assessment accuracy. The spatiotemporal patterns of multidimensional shrinkage suggested strengthening ecological land allocation within urban entities across the entire region, implementing polycentric development strategies in the north, as well as enhancing county-level economic governance in the northwest. This study presents a spatiotemporally comparable methodology for quantifying the multidimensional shrinking of county-level urban entities at a large scale and contributes to further optimizing the developments of YRD-UAs. Full article

The spatial genes of rural settlements show a lot of different traditional settlement traits, which makes them a great starting point for studying rural spatial morphology. However, qualitative and macro-regional statistical indicators are usually used to find and extract rural settlement spatial genes. Taking Yubei Village in the Nanxi River Basin as an example, this study combined remote sensing images, real-time drone mapping, GIS (geographic information system), and space syntax, extracted 12 key indicators from five dimensions (landform and water features (environment), boundary morphology, spatial structure, street scale, and building scale), and quantitatively “decoded” the spatial genes of the settlement. The results showed that (1) the settlement is a “three mountains and one water” pattern, with cultivated land accounting for 37.4% and forest land accounting for 34.3% of the area within the 500 m buffer zone, while the landscape spatial diversity index (LSDI) is 0.708. (2) The boundary morphology is compact and agglomerated, and locally complex but overall orderly, with an aspect ratio of 1.04, a comprehensive morphological index of 1.53, and a comprehensive fractal dimension of 1.31. (3) The settlement is a “clan core–radial lane” network: the global integration degree of the axis to the holy hall is the highest (0.707), and the local integration degree R3 peak of the six-room ancestral hall reaches 2.255. Most lane widths are concentrated between 1.2 and 2.8 m, and the eaves are mostly higher than 4 m, forming a typical “narrow lanes and high houses” water town streetscape. (4) The architectural style is a combination of black bricks and gray tiles, gable roofs and horsehead walls, and “I”-shaped planes (63.95%). This study ultimately constructed a settlement space gene map and digital library, providing a replicable quantitative process for the diagnosis of Jiangnan water town settlements and heritage protection planning. Full article

Climate change, resource scarcity, and ecological degradation have become critical bottlenecks constraining socio-economic development. Basin cities serve as key nodes in China’s ecological security pattern, playing indispensable roles in ecological civilization construction. This study established an evaluation index system spanning five dimensions to assess the effectiveness of ecological civilization construction. This study employs the entropy-weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and Back-Propagation (BP) neural network methods to evaluate the level of ecological civilization construction in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2022, to analyze its indicator weights, and to explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of each city. The results demonstrate the following: (1) Although the ecological civilization construction level of cities in the Yellow River Basin shows a steady improvement, significant regional development disparities persist. (2) The upper reaches are primarily constrained by ecological fragility and economic underdevelopment. The middle reaches exhibit significant internal divergence, with provincial capitals leading yet demonstrating limited spillover effects on neighboring areas. The lower reaches face intense anthropogenic pressures, necessitating greater economic–ecological coordination. (3) Among the dimensions considered, Territorial Space and Eco-environmental Protection emerged as the two most influential dimensions contributing to performance differences. According to the ecological civilization construction performance and changing characteristics of the 48 cities, this study proposes differentiated optimization measures and coordinated development pathways to advance the implementation of the national strategy for ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. Full article

The diffusion effect of river cooling is critical for mitigating the urban heat island effect in riverside areas and for establishing an urban cooling network. River cooling effect diffusion is influenced by the two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) urban morphology of surrounding areas. However, the characteristics of 2D/3D urban morphology that facilitate efficient river cooling effect diffusion remain unclear. This study establishes a technical framework to analyze river cooling effect diffusion resistance (RCDR) across different urban morphologies, using the Huangpu River waterside area in Shanghai as a case study. Seven urban morphology indicators, derived from both 2D and 3D dimensions, were developed to characterize the river cooling effect diffusion resistance. The relative contributions and marginal effects were analyzed using the Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) model. The study found that (1) river cooling effect diffusion was heterogeneous, with four typical patterns; (2) the Landscape Shape Index (LSI) and Blue-green Space Ratio (BGR) significantly impacted cooling effect diffusion; and (3) optimal cooling effect diffusion occurred when the blue-green space occupancy ratio exceeded 20% and building density ranged from 0.1 to 0.3. This study’s technical framework offers a new perspective on river cooling effect diffusion and heat island mitigation in riverside spaces, with significant practical value and potential for broader application. Full article

The Eastern Huang–Huai region of China is a representative mining area with a high groundwater level. High-intensity underground mining activities have not only induced land cover and land use changes (LUCC) but also significantly changed the watershed hydrological behavior. This study integrated the land use prediction model PLUS and the hydrological simulation model MIKE 21. Taking the Bahe River Watershed in Huaibei City, China, as an example, it simulated the hydrological response trends of the watershed in 2037 under different land use scenarios. The results demonstrate the following: (1) The land use predictions for each scenario exhibit significant variation. In the maximum subsidence scenario, the expansion of water areas is most pronounced. In the planning scenario, the increase in construction land is notable. Across all scenarios, the area of cultivated land decreases. (2) In the maximum subsidence scenario, the area of high-intensity waterlogging is the greatest, accounting for 31.35% of the total area of the watershed; in the planning scenario, the proportion of high-intensity waterlogged is the least, at 19.10%. (3) In the maximum subsidence scenario, owing to the water storage effect of the subsidence depression, the flood peak is conspicuously delayed and attains the maximum value of 192.3 m³/s. In the planning scenario, the land reclamation rate and ecological restoration rate of subsidence area are the highest, while the regional water storage capacity is the lowest. As a result, the total cumulative runoff is the greatest, and the peak flood value is reduced. The influence of different degrees of subsidence on the watershed hydrological behavior varies, and the coal mining subsidence area has the potential to regulate and store runoff and perform hydrological regulation. The results reveal the mechanism through which different land use scenarios influence hydrological processes, which provides a scientific basis for the territorial space planning and sustainable development of coal mining subsidence areas. Full article

Reservoir group flood control scheduling decision-making faces multiple uncertainties, such as dynamic fluctuations of evaluation indicators and conflicts in weight assignment. This study proposes a risk analysis model for the decision-making process: capturing the temporal uncertainties of flood control indicators (such as reservoir maximum water level and downstream control section flow) through the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, constructing a feasible weight space including four scenarios (unique fixed value, uniform distribution, etc.), resolving conflicts among the weight results from four methods (Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Entropy Weight, Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC), Principal Component Analysis (PCA)) using game theory, defining decision-making risk as the probability that the actual safety level fails to reach the evaluation threshold, and quantifying risks based on the First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) method. Case verification in the cascade reservoirs of the Qiantang River Basin of China shows that the model provides a risk assessment framework integrating multi-source uncertainties for flood control scheduling decisions through probabilistic description of indicator uncertainties (e.g., Zmax1 with μ = 65.3 and σ = 8.5) and definition of weight feasible regions (99% weight distribution covered by the 3σ criterion), filling the methodological gap in risk quantification during the decision-making process in existing research. Full article

The remote sensing monitoring of land use changes and future scenario simulation hold crucial significance for accurately characterizing urban expansion patterns, optimizing urban land use configurations, and thereby promoting coordinated regional development. Through the integration of multi-source data, this study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal trajectories and driving forces of land use changes in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration (PRD) from 1990 to 2020 and further simulates the spatial patterns of urban land use under diverse development scenarios from 2025 to 2035. The results indicate the following: (1) During 1990–2020, urban expansion in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration exhibited a “stepwise growth” pattern, with an annual expansion rate of 3.7%. Regional land use remained dominated by forest (accounting for over 50%), while construction land surged from 6.5% to 21.8% of total land cover. The gravity center trajectory shifted southeastward. Concurrently, cropland fragmentation has intensified, accompanied by deteriorating connectivity of ecological lands. (2) Urban expansion in the PRD arises from synergistic interactions between natural and socioeconomic drivers. The Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model revealed that natural constraints—elevation (regression coefficients ranging −0.35 to −0.05) and river network density (−0.47 to −0.15)—exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. Socioeconomic drivers dominated by year-end paved road area (0.26–0.28) and foreign direct investment (0.03–0.11) emerged as core expansion catalysts. Geographic detector analysis demonstrated pronounced interaction effects: all factor pairs exhibited either two-factor enhancement or nonlinear enhancement effects, with interaction explanatory power surpassing individual factors. (3) Validation of the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model showed high reliability (Kappa coefficient = 0.9205, overall accuracy = 95.9%). Under the Natural Development Scenario, construction land would exceed the ecological security baseline, causing 408.60 km² of ecological space loss; Under the Ecological Protection Scenario, mandatory control boundaries could reduce cropland and forest loss by 3.04%, albeit with unused land development intensity rising to 24.09%; Under the Economic Development Scenario, cross-city contiguous development zones along the Pearl River Estuary would emerge, with land development intensity peaking in Guangzhou–Foshan and Shenzhen–Dongguan border areas. This study deciphers the spatiotemporal dynamics, driving mechanisms, and scenario outcomes of urban agglomeration expansion, providing critical insights for formulating regionally differentiated policies. Full article

As China shifts from rapid to high-quality development, urban growth has exhibited allometric patterns. This study evaluated land use efficiency from the perspective of architectural space, focusing on 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2020. A land development intensity index was constructed at both the provincial and municipal levels using the entropy weight method, integrating floor area ratio, building density, and functional mix. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land development intensity and population density were analyzed, and a coordination coupling model was applied to identify mismatches between land and population. The results reveal: (1) Temporally, the imbalance of “more people, less land” in the Yangtze River Delta diminished. Spatially, leading regions exhibit a diffusion effect. Shanghai showed a decline in both population density and development intensity; Zhejiang maintained balanced development; Jiangsu experienced accelerated growth; and Anhui showed signs of catching up. (2) Although the two indicators showed a high coupling degree and strong correlation, the coordination degree remained low, indicating poor quality of correlation. The land-population relationship demonstrated a fluctuating pattern of “strengthening–weakening” over time. Shanghai exhibited the highest coordination, while more than half of the cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui still needed optimization. (3) Unlike previous findings that linked such patterns to shrinking cities, in this transformation stage, the number of cities where land development intensity exceeded population density continued to grow in advanced regions. This study first applied 3D building data at the macro scale to support differentiated spatial policies. Full article

Watershed water bodies, as a key part of the Earth’s water cycle, were identified as an important destination for emerging pollutants. However, existing research primarily focused on single environmental zones, such as lakes or rivers, lacking a comprehensive understanding at the watershed scale. Scientific knowledge mapping and tools, such as Bibliometrics, VOSviewer, and CiteSpace, were employed to conduct a comprehensive analysis of literature on emerging pollutants in watershed water bodies from the WOSCC database. The results indicated that, from 2000 to 2024, research themes in this field gradually expanded from the identification and detection of pollutants to source analysis, environmental behavior, ecological effects, risk assessment, and social governance. Keyword co-occurrence analysis revealed high-frequency terms such as “waste-water,” “persistent organic pollutants,” “polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons,” and pollutants related to sediments. Burst keyword analysis showed that early keywords like “polychlorinated biphenyls” were gradually replaced by more recent terms like “particles.” Additionally, it was found that cooperation between China and the United States was close, and research was increasingly interdisciplinary. Finally, the main challenges in the current research were summarized, and future research directions were proposed, aiming to provide theoretical support and data foundation for scientific studies and policymaking concerning emerging pollutants in watershed water bodies. Full article

In the context of emergency management, individual or household decisions to engage in risk mitigation behaviors are widely recognized to be influenced by a benefit–cost perception (perceived applied value (PAV) vs. perceived economic value (PEV), respectively). To better understand how such decisions are made, we conducted a mail survey (N = 211) of households living in the Red River of the North Basin, North Dakota, in 2018. The survey is aimed at understanding the overall experience of households with flooding and their behavior toward advanced protective strategies against future floods by analyzing household PEV—their willingness to pay for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Satellite Enhanced Snowmelt Flood Prediction system. This paper presents a mediation model in which various predictors (flood risk, experience, flood knowledge, flood risk perception, flood preparedness, flood mitigation, and flood insurance) are analyzed in relation to the PAV of the new Satellite Enhanced Snowmelt Flood Predictions in the Red River of the North Basin, which, in turn, may shape the PEV of this product. We discuss the potential implications for both the emergency management research community and professionals regarding the application of advanced risk mitigation technologies to help protect and sustain communities across the country from floods and other natural disasters. This paper provides a greater understanding of the economic and social aspects of sustainability in the context of emergency management and community development. Full article

Accurate estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) content is crucial for assessing terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks. Although traditional methods offer relatively high estimation accuracy, they are limited by poor timeliness and high costs. Combining measured data, remote sensing technology, and machine learning (ML) algorithms enables rapid, efficient, and accurate large-scale prediction. However, single ML models often face issues like high feature variable redundancy and weak generalization ability. Integrated models can effectively overcome these problems. This study focuses on the Weigan–Kuqa River oasis (Wei-Ku Oasis), a typical arid oasis in northwest China. It integrates Sentinel-2A multispectral imagery, a digital elevation model, ERA5 meteorological reanalysis data, soil attribute, and land use (LU) data to estimate SOC. The Boruta algorithm, Lasso regression, and its combination methods were used to screen feature variables, constructing a multidimensional feature space. Ensemble models like Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and the Stacking model are built. Results show that the Stacking model, constructed by combining the screened variable sets, exhibited optimal prediction accuracy (test set R² = 0.61, RMSE = 2.17 g∙kg⁻¹, RPD = 1.61), which reduced the prediction error by 9% compared to single model prediction. Difference Vegetation Index (DVI), Bare Soil Evapotranspiration (BSE), and type of land use (TLU) have a substantial multidimensional synergistic influence on the spatial differentiation pattern of the SOC. The implementation of TLU has been demonstrated to exert a substantial influence on the model’s estimation performance, as evidenced by an augmentation of 24% in the R² of the test set. The integration of Boruta–Lasso combination screening and Stacking has been shown to facilitate the construction of a high-precision SOC content estimation model. This model has the capacity to provide technical support for precision fertilization in oasis regions in arid zones and the management of regional carbon sinks. Full article