Search Results (488)

Rivers are a key pathway for the transport of plastics into the ocean. Studies of plastic pollution in Arctic rivers remain limited due to the inaccessibility of sampling sites and work in extreme weather conditions. This work presents the results of a three-year (2019–2021) survey of floating large microplastics (0.5–5 mm) and meso/macroplastics (>5 mm) in the Northern Dvina River, an actively navigated river that drains a densely populated region into the White Sea. Sampling was conducted during the ice-free periods (May–October) along a ∼3.5 km transect using a Neuston net, providing a multi-year dataset spanning three ice-free seasons. A critical methodological advancement was the calculation of plastic river–sea flux using the discharge of the sampled surface layer (upper 20 cm), which constitutes only ∼3% of the river’s total discharge, rather than the total discharge itself. Observed microplastic concentrations (average 0.003 items ${\mathrm{m}}^{-3}$) were low compared to many European rivers, and lower than those reported in the adjacent Barents and Kara Seas. Microplastic abundance was significantly lower during the high-water season than during the low-water season, which resulted in practically no seasonal variability in microplastic fluxes from the river to the White Sea (average 0.3 items ${\mathrm{s}}^{-1}$). A notable finding was that in some cases, meso/macroplastics outnumbered microplastics by item count, underscoring the river’s role as a significant source of larger plastic debris. A geospatial assessment of Arctic rivers’ pollution potential was performed, using socio-economic indicators such as near-delta population density and port activity. This study identified the Northern Dvina River as a major contributor of microplastics among the Arctic rivers. Full article

Freshwater accumulation is one of the most striking observations in the Beaufort Gyre (BG) region in the Arctic Ocean. A 39-year simulation, using the validated high-resolution, geometrical-fitting, unstructured grid Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model for the Arctic Ocean, aimed to investigate the contributions of coastal currents and their interannual variability to this phenomenon. The model reasonably reproduced the interannual variability of freshwater content (FWC) in the BG region. Analysis revealed the constructive role of Ekman pumping in supplying FWC, while the lateral flux generally acts to remove FWC from the region. The disparity between Ekman pumping and lateral flux drives the interannual variability of total FWC, with accumulation occurring when the downward Ekman FWC flux surpasses the net outflow-induced lateral FWC flux. Since 2007, there has been a significant increase in downward Ekman pumping, accompanied by a rise in net outflow lateral flux, indicating heightened variability of FWC in the BG region. The model results suggested that the coastal flow over the Arctic continental shelf underwent dramatic changes, especially during summer, and these changes were partially due to increased freshwater and sea ice melting. Increased lateral FWC flux during summer has become a competitive source for unprecedented seasonal freshwater accumulation in the BG region. Flow intensification over the North American coast is influenced by increased freshwater runoff, including the Firth, Kobuk, and Mackenzie Rivers. Interannual FWC variation in the Beaufort Sea could be influenced by the changes in slope flow, with the water originating in part from the Barents and Kara Seas. Full article

Transboundary river basins face water stress exacerbated by data scarcity and political instability, and most allocation models require ideal conditions that ordinarily do not exist. This study operationalizes Water Diplomacy Theory (WDT) for data-scarce, conflict-prone basins through quantifiable allocation rules—a critical gap as 310 transboundary basins worldwide face similar challenges. We address: (1) How can a four-stage allocation framework reduce basin-wide water stress under varying Institutional Capacity (IC), Data Transparency (DT), and Stakeholder Inclusion (SI)? (2) What treaty provisions achieve bindingness under upstream-downstream power asymmetries? (3) How does this framework advance beyond existing models in equity, efficiency, and adaptive capacity? We synthesize Water Diplomacy Theory with Hydro-political Security Complex Theory to construct a novel four-stage framework: initial allocation with ecological floors, conditional reallocation triggers, interannual water banking, and satellite-verified compliance. Drawing on 14 treaty precedents and 30-year hydrological data for the Salween River, we embed these rules in an open-source water banking model. Results demonstrate that increasing IC from low to high reduces basin-wide water stress by 34% (±7%, 95% IC) under drought conditions. Stakeholder Inclusion decreases allocation conflicts by 52%. Water banking outperforms priority rules by 23% across climate scenarios. Cooperation becomes self-enforcing when IC exceeds 0.55. The novelty and contribution to existing literature our study provides are: (1) first operationalization of hybrid commons-to-treaty transition with 85.7% empirically grounded clauses; (2) evidence that binding cooperative treaty design is achievable in weak-state contexts through institutional design; and (3) a portable template for data-scarce conflict-affected basins. Full article

Thaw settlement (TS) in warm and ice-rich permafrost presents a challenge to highway subgrade stability in the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor (QTEC). To conduct a regional risk assessment, this study develops a framework coupling multi-source data fusion with Random Forest (RF) machine learning. By connecting site-specific thermo-mechanical simulations with corridor-scale remote sensing predictors, a 30 m resolution thaw settlement zoning map for 13 m wide separated subgrades was generated. The results indicate the following: (1) Thaw settlement exhibits significant spatial variability, with Level III settlement (20–30 cm) being the dominant category, accounting for 40.85% of the total area; Level IV and V settlements are mainly distributed in warm and ice-rich permafrost regions such as the Chumar River, Wuli, and Tuotuo River areas. (2) Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and ice content type (ICT) are key factors influencing the spatial settlement pattern, with differentiated dominant mechanisms: 50% of the zones are dominated by ICT, corresponding to higher settlement (26.76–43.31 cm); 35.71% are influenced by both MAGT and ICT; and 14.29% are dominated by MAGT, with lower settlement (16.23–24.19 cm). This suggests a distinct spatial pattern where “high-temperature zones are largely controlled by ice content, while low-temperature zones are controlled by temperature.” (3) Among multi-source remote sensing factors, land surface temperature (LST) and the thawing index (TI) show significant correlations with thaw settlement, confirming their applicability for hazard identification in high-altitude regions. This study provides a scientific reference and decision support for engineering maintenance and route selection on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Full article

Understanding the motion parameters of floating ice is very important for characterizing the ice water dynamics of rivers during freezing periods. Due to the low spatiotemporal resolution of satellite images, limited observation range of unmanned aerial vehicles, and deformation of shore-based camera images, it is difficult to simultaneously quantify the translational and rotational motion characteristics of floating ice and long-distance transportation. This study used the unmanned aerial vehicle GPS joint observation method to observe and obtain various motion parameters such as local translation, rotation, and long-distance transportation in the curved section of the upper reaches of the Yellow River and the straight section of the middle reaches of the Yellow River during the winter of 2024–2025 under conditions of ice density of 50–90%. The velocity field obtained by the drone shows an average ice velocity of 1.27 m/s at the bend and 1.18 m/s in the straight section, with lateral velocity gradients of −0.245 to 0.050 s⁻¹ and −0.141 to 0.222 s⁻¹, respectively. The angular velocity of a single floating ice block is 0.008–0.016 rad/s at bends and 0.010–0.036 rad/s in straight sections. The angular velocity is positively correlated with the local shear strength, and the rotation direction is consistent with the sign of the velocity gradient. GPS tracking provides long-distance transportation trajectories, and the average difference between the speeds obtained by GPS and drones is 0.10 m/s, confirming the reliability of speed estimation based on drones. These results indicate that integrated unmanned aerial vehicle GPS observation can quantitatively characterize local floating ice movement and long-distance floating ice transport behavior, providing on-site parameters for river ice water dynamics research and hazard assessment, and has the potential to be applied to rivers in other cold regions. Full article

The shallow-buried abandoned Yellow River Delta (893–1855 AD) exhibits a distinctive geomorphic system shaped by coupled fluvial sediment reduction, climatic transition, and relative sea-level fluctuations, with its intact deposits recording key temperate delta evolution during climate change. Using four sediment cores, we applied optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, sedimentary facies analysis, and grain-size techniques (C-M diagram, end-member modeling), integrated with geomorphic interpretation and historical data, to reconstruct the delta’s evolutionary sequence and clarify storm surge-driven geomorphic reworking and its diagnostic indicators. Results indicate that the delta’s evolution was governed by abrupt fluvial sediment loss, intensified storm dynamics, and relative sea-level rise. The 893 AD Yellow River avulsion triggered delta abandonment (893–1482 AD), driving a shift from a fluvially dominated muddy coast to a wave-controlled sandy system. Sandy deposits initially formed at M04A and prograded landward to M03A. During the Little Ice Age (1482–1855 AD), frequent storm surges further expanded and elevated these sandy accumulations, while weak sedimentation persisted in the inland depression (B03). This differential process generated a unique plain lowland–coastal highland system, a rare geomorphic type among large river deltas that differs from classic island–continent and barrier–lagoon systems. This study elucidates the phased response of temperate monsoon abandoned deltas to millennial-scale climate change, advances theories of multi-factor coupled delta evolution, and provides scientific support for coastal protection, stability assessment, and evolutionary prediction under global warming. Full article

Due to the complexity inherent in river ice dynamics, the utilization of remote sensing imagery represents the most crucial and effective method currently available for monitoring changes in river ice. In the Inner Mongolia segment of the Yellow River during winter, two distinct types of ice surfaces are observed: juxtaposed ice and consolidated ice. Additionally, certain areas of open water remain unfrozen. Rapid identification and classification of extensive ice formations and open water zones along this lengthy river section constitute critical information for informed decision-making in ice prevention and management strategies within the Yellow River basin. This paper takes the formation and characteristic analysis of different types of ice in the Yellow River channels in Inner Mongolia as the starting point. It employs a support vector machine (SVM) as the classifier and introduces an optimized model for classifying river ice types using high-resolution Sentinel-2 optical imagery. The model utilizes multi-band spectral features, along with multi-spectral fusion indices such as the normalized difference snow index (NDSI) and the normalized difference frozen surface index (NDFSI), as feature vectors. This approach attains an overall accuracy of 94.91% in classifying different types of ice and can significantly contribute to river ice monitoring by offering robust theoretical support. In the winter of 2023–2024, the proportion of juxtaposed ice on the Yellow River section in Inner Mongolia changed from 45% to 55%, the proportion of consolidated ice changed from 30% to 40%, and the proportion of open water changed from 9% to 19%. This research investigates the characteristics of river ice formations and develops a classification methodology for river ice patterns utilizing high-resolution Sentinel-2 imagery in conjunction with a supervised classification algorithm. The findings of this study are intended to offer technical support for the expedited interpretation of ice conditions in the Yellow River, thereby serving as a scientific basis for precise monitoring and effective disaster prevention and management related to river ice phenomena. Full article

As a major water conservation region and ecological security barrier in China, the Three-River Source Region (TRSR) of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is underlain by extensive permafrost. However, how permafrost degradation alters regional water conservation, particularly the existence of critical thresholds and time-lagged responses, remains insufficiently understood. To clarify these issues, spatiotemporal variations in water conservation (1990–2020) were quantified, and their nonlinear, lagged, and spatially heterogeneous responses to active layer thickness (ALT) were assessed. Using multi-source remote sensing and in situ observations from 1990 to 2020, spatiotemporal variations in water conservation were quantified with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, and responses to permafrost degradation were examined by integrating Sen’s slope, GeoDetector, geographically weighted regression (GWR), and structural equation modeling (SEM) methods. The results showed that water conservation increased overall during 1990–2020 and exhibited a pronounced southeast–northwest gradient (higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest); the rates of change in the Lancang, Yellow, and Yangtze headwaters were 63.5, 56.5, and 31.0 mm a⁻¹, respectively. GeoDetector results indicate that precipitation was the dominant control on the spatial heterogeneity of water conservation (q = 0.704), and its interaction with active layer thickness (ALT) further increased explanatory power (q = 0.736). ALT also interacted with vegetation (q = 0.224) and topography (q = 0.157), suggesting that permafrost effects are modulated by vegetation condition and topographic setting in addition to water inputs. Piecewise regression identified a potential threshold at ALT = 1.77 m, indicating a shift in the ALT–water conservation relationship across this threshold. A 5–7-year lag in the response of water conservation to ALT was also detected, particularly apparent in continuous permafrost zones. Overall, water conservation exhibits a clear southeast–northwest gradient and a delayed response to ALT changes. In addition, the response exhibits clear spatial clustering, with the strongest sensitivity observed in areas with ice-rich permafrost overlain by alpine meadow, and a potential ALT breakpoint further suggests nonlinear permafrost–water conservation coupling. Full article

Ice-jam formation during winter low-flow conditions represents a persistent hydrotechnical hazard in small and medium-sized rivers of Central Europe. Despite extensive monitoring efforts, preventive structural measures remain insufficiently developed and rarely evaluated under real geomorphological constraints. This study proposes and hydraulically verifies a low-profile riverbed sill designed to suppress the initiation and stabilization of frazil and anchor ice during critical winter discharges. The analysis integrates 20 years of hydrological and water-temperature data (2004–2024), 26 detailed cross-sectional surveys, a high-resolution longitudinal profile derived from DMR 3.0, and a newly formulated Ice-Jam Risk Index (Iice) combining flow velocity, depth-to-width ratio and thermal deficit. Application to the Torysa River (rkm 42.8–43.6) revealed a clearly defined high-risk zone (rkm 43.20–43.38), where hydraulic conditions frequently fall below the critical thresholds for ice accumulation (U < 0.35 m·s⁻¹; h/B < (h/B)_crit; ΔT > 0.5 °C), indicating shallow and laterally widened channel sections prone to anchor-ice stabilization. Model simulations demonstrated that the proposed sill increases mean velocity by 22–35% during Q₆₅–Q₈₅ conditions, reducing the local I(ice) by 61%, while preserving the conveyance capacity for discharges above Q₅₀ and avoiding measurable backwater impacts upstream. Field-based morphology, risk index interpolation and hydraulic modeling all confirm that the structure effectively disrupts the formation of stable anchor-ice nuclei, which have historically triggered severe ice-jam floods in this reach (2011/12, 2016/17, 2021/22). The results show that a properly dimensioned low-profile sill provides a passive, low-cost, and transferable engineering solution for winter flood risk mitigation, outperforming reactive ice-management techniques while maintaining ecological and hydraulic compatibility with small natural rivers. The methodology is replicable for other rivers where supercooling, low-flow hydraulics and channel morphology jointly control ice-jam initiation. Full article

The presence of ice cover significantly alters the hydraulic characteristics of river channels, and the evolutionary law of ice drift velocity is crucial for understanding the ice-jam floods (IJFs) formation mechanism during the spring IJFs breakup period. Based on miniature ice buoy locators and Sentinel-2 satellite remote sensing data, this study systematically analyzes the channel characteristics of the upper Heilongjiang River and the regulatory effect of channel morphology on ice drift velocity. The results show that the river width of the upper Heilongjiang River exhibits a widening trend, with a variation range of 212 to 1292 m, characterized by large longitudinal dispersion and significant spatial variability. During the 2024 spring IJFs breakup period, the ice drift velocity ranges from 0.57 to 3.48 m/s with an average of 1.92 m/s, and a significant decreasing trend is observed when the ice drift passes through the entrances/exits of meandering bends and the confluences of distributaries in braided channels. The longitudinal distribution law of ice drift velocity revealed in this study can provide key data support and scientific reference for the accurate prediction of IJFs and the prevention and control of IJFs. Full article

The formation and stability of river ice covers in regulated waterways are critical for uninterrupted hydro-electric operations. This study investigates the modelling of ice cover development in the Beauharnois Canal along the St. Lawrence River with the presence and absence of ice booms. Ice booms are deployed in this canal to promote the rapid formation of a stable ice cover during freezing events, minimizing disruptions to dam operations. Remote sensing data were used to assess the spatial extent and temporal evolution of an ice cover and to calibrate the river ice model RIVICE. The model was applied to simulate ice formation for the 2019–2020 ice season, first for the canal with a series of three ice booms and then rerun under a scenario without booms. Comparative analysis reveals that the presence of ice booms facilitates the development of a relatively thinner and more uniform ice cover. In contrast, the absence of booms leads to thicker ice accumulations and increased risk of ice jamming, which could impact water management and hydroelectric generation operations. Computational efficiencies of the RIVICE model were also sought. RIVICE was originally compiled with a Fortran 77 compiler, which restricted modern optimization techniques. Recompiling with NVFortran significantly improved performance through advanced instruction scheduling, cache management, and automatic loop analysis, even without explicit optimization flags. Enabling optimization further accelerated execution, albeit marginally, reducing redundant operations and memory traffic while preserving numerical integrity. Tests across varying ice cross-sectional spacings confirmed that NVFortran reduced runtimes by roughly an order of magnitude compared to the original model. A test GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) version was able to run the data interpolation routines on the GPU, but frequent data transfers between the CPU (Central Processing Unit) and GPU caused by shared memory blocks and fixed-size arrays made it slower than the original CPU version. Achieving efficient GPU execution would require substantial code restructuring to eliminate global states, adopt persistent data regions, and parallelize at higher level loops, or alternatively, rewriting in a GPU-friendly language to fully exploit modern architectures. Full article

River and lake ice are sensitive indicators of climate change and important components of hydrological and ecological systems in cold regions. In this study, we develop a simple and transferable “surface water + land surface temperature (LST)” framework on Google Earth Engine to map potential winter ice area across China from 1990 to 2020. The framework enables consistent, large-scale, long-term monitoring without relying on complex remote sensing models or region-specific thresholds. Our results show that, despite a pronounced northwestward shift in the freezing-zone boundary, more than 400 km in the Northeast Plain and about 13 km per year along the eastern coast, the total ice-covered area increased by approximately 1.1% per year. At the same time, the average ice season became slightly shorter. This indicates asynchronous spatial and temporal responses of potential winter ice to warming. We identify a persistent “Northwest–Northeast dual-core” spatial pattern with strong positive spatial autocorrelation, characterized by increasing ice cover in Tibet, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Northeast China, and decreasing ice cover mainly in Beijing and Yunnan, where intense urbanization and low-latitude warming dominate. Random Forest modeling further shows that water area fraction, nighttime lights, built-up area, altitude, and water–heat indices are the main controls on potential winter ice. These findings highlight the combined influence of hydrological and thermal conditions and urbanization in reshaping potential winter ice patterns under climate change. Full article

River ice is a common natural phenomenon in cold regions during winter, and it is also one of the key factors that must be considered in the development and utilization of water resources in these areas. In this paper, based on a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and ice dynamics model coupled with a linear thermodynamic process, this study simulates and validates the formation, decay, transport, and accumulation of river ice at the Toudaoguai reach of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia during the winters of 2019–2020 and 2020–2021. The influence of different parameters on backwater level variations caused by ice jams is further investigated using a modified Morris sensitivity analysis method. The results show that (1) the coupled thermal-dynamic model can accurately simulate the formation, transport, and accumulation process of river ice in natural river, as well as the freeze-up patterns and corresponding hydraulic characteristics. (2) Due to the influence of river topography, flow rate, and flow density, the freeze-up form is slightly different in different years, and the low discharge process favor a more stable freeze-up. (3) According to the modified Morris screening method, discharge (Q) and ice concentration (N) are the most sensitive to the change in the backwater water level after the ice jam, and the sensitivity is more than 50%. The next most sensitive factor is the ice-cover roughness (n_i), whereas ice porosity (e_f) exhibits a negative sensitivity to the water level after ice jam. Thus, this study provides effective tools to reproduce the process of river ice transport and accumulation in the reach of the Yellow River (Inner Mongolia section) and offers technical support and insights for ice-flood prevention and mitigation in this section. Full article

Catastrophic mass flows originating from the high mountain cryosphere often cause cascading hazards. With increasing human activities in the alpine region and the sensitivity of the cryosphere to climate warming, cryospheric hazards are becoming more frequent in the mountain regions. Monitoring the evolution and impact of the glaciers and ice-rock avalanches and hazard consequences in the mountain regions is crucial to understand nature and drivers of mass flow process in order to prevent and mitigate potential hazard risks. In this study, the glacier and ice-rock avalanches that occurred in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) were investigated based on the Sentinel-2 satellite data and in situ observations, and the main driving forces and impacts on the regional environment, landscape, and geomorphological conditions were also analyzed. The results showed that the avalanche deposit of Arutso glacier No. 53 completely melted away in 2 years, while the deposit of Arutso glacier No. 50 melted in 7 years. Four large-scale ice-rock avalanches in the Sedongpu basin not only had significant impacts on the river flow, landscape, and geomorphologic shape in the basin, but also caused serious disasters in the region and beyond. These glacier and ice-rock avalanches were caused by temperature anomaly, heavy precipitation, climate warming, and seismic activity, etc., which act on the specific glacier properties in the high mountain regions. The study highlights scientific advances should support and benefit the remote and vulnerable mountain communities to make mountain regions safer. Full article