Search Results (12)

Accurate prediction of landslide-induced displacement is essential for the structural integrity and operational safety of buildings and infrastructure situated in geologically unstable regions. This study introduces a novel hybrid predictive framework that synergistically integrates Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with Temporal Convolutional Neural Networks (TCNs), herein referred to as the GTCN model, to forecast displacement at building monitoring points subject to landslide activity. The proposed methodology is validated using time-series monitoring data collected from the slope adjacent to the Zhongliang Reservoir in Wuxi County, Chongqing, an area where slope instability poses a significant threat to nearby structural assets. Experimental results demonstrate the GTCN model’s superior predictive performance, particularly under challenging conditions of incomplete or sparsely sampled data. The model proves highly effective in accurately characterizing both abrupt fluctuations within the displacement time series and capturing long-term deformation trends. Furthermore, the GTCN framework outperforms comparative hybrid models based on Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and GPR, with its advantage being especially pronounced in data-limited scenarios. It also exhibits enhanced capability for temporal feature extraction relative to conventional imputation-based forecasting strategies like forward-filling. By effectively modeling both nonlinear trends and uncertainty within displacement sequences, the GTCN framework offers a robust and scalable solution for landslide-related risk assessment and early warning applications. Its applicability to building safety monitoring underscores its potential contribution to geotechnical hazard mitigation and resilient infrastructure management. Full article

This study aims to mitigate slope-collapse hazards that threaten life and property at the Lujiawan resettlement site in Wanbi Town, Dayao County, Yunnan Province, within the Guanyinyan hydropower reservoir. It integrates centimeter-level point-cloud data collected by a DJI Matrice 350 RTK equipped with a Zenmuse L2 airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) sensor with detailed structural-joint survey data. First, qualitative structural interpretation is conducted with stereographic projection. Next, safety factors are quantified using the limit-equilibrium method, establishing a dual qualitative–quantitative diagnostic framework. This framework delineates six hazardous rock zones (WY1–WY6), dominated by toppling and free-fall failure modes, and evaluates their stability under combined rainfall infiltration, seismic loading, and ambient conditions. Subsequently, six-degree-of-freedom Monte Carlo simulations incorporating realistic three-dimensional terrain and block geometry are performed in RAMMS::ROCKFALL (Rapid Mass Movements Simulation—Rockfall). The resulting spatial patterns of rockfall velocity, kinetic energy, and rebound height elucidate their evolution coupled with slope height, surface morphology, and block shape. Results show peak velocities ranging from 20 to 42 m s⁻¹ and maximum kinetic energies between 0.16 and 1.4 MJ. Most rockfall trajectories terminate within 0–80 m of the cliff base. All six identified hazardous rock masses pose varying levels of threat to residential structures at the slope foot, highlighting substantial spatial variability in hazard distribution. Drawing on the preceding diagnostic results and dynamic simulations, we recommend a three-tier “zonal defense with in situ energy dissipation” scheme: (i) install 500–2000 kJ flexible barriers along the crest and upper slope to rapidly attenuate rockfall energy; (ii) place guiding or deflection structures at mid-slope to steer blocks and dissipate momentum; and (iii) deploy high-capacity flexible nets combined with a catchment basin at the slope foot to intercept residual blocks. This staged arrangement maximizes energy attenuation and overall risk reduction. This study shows that integrating high-resolution 3D point clouds with rigid-body contact dynamics overcomes the spatial discontinuities of conventional surveys. The approach substantially improves the accuracy and efficiency of hazardous rock stability assessments and rockfall trajectory predictions, offering a quantifiable, reproducible mitigation framework for long slopes, large rock volumes, and densely fractured cliff faces. Full article

External water level fluctuation is the major trigger causing reservoir slope failure, and therefore it is of great significance for the safety assessment and corresponding safety management of reservoir slopes. In this work, the seepage effects stemming from fluctuating external water levels are given special analysis and then incorporated into the rigorous limit equilibrium method for assessing the stability of reservoir slope. An advanced metaheuristic intelligent algorithm, the improved radial movement optimisation (IRMO), is introduced to efficiently locate the critical failure surface and associated minimum factor of safety. Consequently, the effect of water level fluctuation directions, changing rates, and soil permeability coefficient on reservoir stability are investigated by the proposed method in three cases. It is found that the clay slope behaved more sensitively in stability fluctuation compared to the silty slope. With the dropping of external water, the higher dropping speed and lower soil permeability coefficient have worse impacts on the slope stability. The critical pool level during reservoir water dropping could be effectively obtained through the analysis. The results indicate that the IRMO-based method herein could effectively realise the stability analysis of the reservoir slope in a dynamic fluctuating reservoir water level, which could provide applicable technology for following preventions. Full article

Geological disasters in large alpine reservoirs primarily take the form of landslide occurrences and are predominantly induced by slope instability. Presently, risk monitoring and assessment strategies tend to prioritize sudden alerts overlooking progressive trajectories from the onset of creeping deformations within the slope to its critical state preceding landslides. Hence, analyzing landslide safety risks over time demonstrates a significant degree of hysteresis, highlighting the necessity for a comprehensive approach to risk assessment that encompasses both gradual and sudden precursors to landslide events. This study analyzes the factors affecting slope stability and establishes a slope evaluation indicator system that includes terrain morphology, meteorological conditions, the ecological environment, soil conditions, human activity, and external manifestation. It proposes a quantitative model for slope landslide risk assessment based on a fuzzy broad learning system, aiming to accurately assess slopes with different risk levels. The overall assessment accuracy rate reaches 92.08%. This multi-dimensional risk assessment model provides long-term monitoring of slope conditions and scientific guidance on landslide risk management and disaster prevention and mitigation on a long time scale for risky slopes in reservoir areas. Full article

Core wall rockfill dams are susceptible to cracking at the dam’s crest, as well as collapse and settlement of the rockfill during storage and operation periods, particularly due to rapid fluctuations in the water level in pumped storage power stations. Most studies on the impact of fluctuations in the reservoir’s water level on dam deformation have considered fluctuations of less than 5 m/d, while pumped storage power stations experience much larger fluctuations. Additionally, the seepage and stress fields within the dam’s rock and soil interact and influence each other. Few studies have used the coupling theory of seepage and stress to analyze seepage and deformation in core wall rockfill dams. To address these issues, a finite element model using seepage–stress coupling theory was utilized to investigate the variations in the phreatic line, earth pressure, and deformation of a core wall rockfill dam due to rapid fluctuations in the reservoir’s water level. Additionally, the results of the finite element simulation were compared with and analyzed alongside safety monitoring data. The results indicated that, upon a sudden decrease in the reservoir’s water level, there was a lag in the decline of the phreatic line in Rockfill I, which created a large hydraulic gradient, resulting in a reverse seepage field on the dam’s slope surface and generating a drag force directed upstream. Consequently, a significant concentration of stress occurred on one-third of the upstream slope surface of the dam and the seepage curtain, and the increase in horizontal displacement was substantially greater than the increase in settlement from one-third of the rockfill’s height to the dam’s foundation. The deformation was more sensitive to the lowest water level of the reservoir rather than to the fastest rate of decline. Sudden rises in the reservoir’s water level result in decreased horizontal displacements and settlement of the dam. Amid rapid fluctuations of the reservoir’s water level, changes in the vertical earth pressure were more pronounced at the bottom of the core wall than in its midsection. Compared with the core wall, variations in the vertical earth pressure in the upstream and downstream filter layers were minor at similar elevations. A peak horizontal displacement of 6.5 mm was noted at one-third the height of Rockfill I, with the greatest increase in settlement of 3.5 mm at the dam’s crest. To ensure a project’s safety, it is crucial to control the elevation of the lowest point during a sudden drop in the reservoir’s level and to carefully monitor for cracks or voids within approximately one-third of the dam’s height in Rockfill I and at the dam crest. This study’s results provide a scientific basis for assessing core wall rockfill dams’ health and securing long-term safety at pumped storage power facilities. Full article

Assessing the stability behavior of deep-seated rock slides in the surroundings of large dam reservoirs requires an understanding of the geometry, the kinematics, the groundwater situation, and the rock mass and shear zone properties. This study focuses on the influence of rock slide geometry on stability evolution during initial reservoir impounding. Therefore, nine different rock slide models, mainly taken from published case studies with a well-explored geometry, were analyzed. Based on the assumption that the rock slides are close to limit equilibrium in a no-reservoir scenario, reservoir impounding causes a reduction in the factor of safety (FoS). The results show a large impact of the water level for rotational slides where the majority of the rock mass is located at the lower part of the slope. This results in a maximum reduction in the FoS of up to 12%. In contrast to this, translational rock slides are less affected by reservoir impounding. The stability analysis shows that the change in FoS is strongly controlled by the kinematics of the rock slide and the geometry near the foot of the slope. Consequently, a comprehensive in situ investigation of the geometry and kinematics is necessary in order to reliably assess the influence of initial reservoir impounding. Full article

Deformation monitoring plays a pivotal role in assessing dam safety. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) has the advantage of obtaining an extensive range of deformation, regardless of weather conditions. The Datengxia Water Conservancy Hub is the largest in-construction dam in China. To effectively assess the in-construction dam safety, the SBAS-InSAR (Small Baseline Subset-InSAR) technique and 86 Sentinel-1 images (from 11 February 2020, to 16 January 2023) have been employed in this study to monitor the deformation over the reservoir and its surrounding areas. The reliability of the SBAS-InSAR monitoring results over the study area was demonstrated by the in situ monitoring results. And the InSAR results show that the central section of the left dam exhibits the most substantial cumulative deformation, attributed to the maximal water pressure. This is closely followed by the left end of the dam, which reflects a similar but smaller deformation. However, the in-construction cofferdam facilities make the right-end section of the left dam more robust, and the deformation is the most stable. Additionally, significant deformation of the auxiliary dam slope has been identified. Moreover, the analysis indicated that the deformation of the four upstream slopes is closely related to the precipitation, which potentially poses a threat to the safety of the Datengxia Dam. Full article

The empirical Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) has been adapted to geographical information system (GIS) frameworks to study the spatial variability of soil erosion across landscapes and has also been used to estimate reservoir sedimentation. The literature presents contradictory results about the efficacy of using RUSLE in a GIS context for quantifying reservoir sedimentation, requiring further evaluation and validation of its estimates relative to measured reservoir sedimentation. Our primary objective was to determine if these contradictory results may be a function of the RUSLE’s inability to account for sediments derived from gullies, stream channels, or stream banks; the temporal variability of some of RUSLE’s empirically based factors such as the land cover/land management (C-) factor; and in some model renditions, the choice of value for the sediment delivery ratio (SDR). The usefulness of adjusting these estimates using a regional representative value of gully/stream bank sediment contributions was also assessed. High-spatial horizontal resolution (2 m) digital elevation models (DEMs) for 12 watersheds were used together with C-factor data for five representative years in a GIS-based RUSLE model that incorporates SDR within a sediment routing routine to study the impacts of choice of C-factor and SDR on reservoir sedimentation estimates. Choice of image date for developing C-factors was found to impact reservoir estimates. We also found that the value of SDR for some of the study watersheds would have to be unrealistically small to produce sedimentation estimates comparable to measured values. Estimates of reservoir sedimentation were comparable to measured data for 5 of the 12 watersheds, when the regionally based adjustment for gully/stream bank contributions was applied. However, differences remained large for the remaining seven watersheds. Statistical analysis revealed that certain combinations of geomorphic, pedologic, or topographic variables could be used to predict the degree of sediment underestimation with a significant and high level of correlation (0.72 < R² ≤ 0.99; p-value < 0.05). Our findings indicate that the level of agreement between GIS-based RUSLE estimates of reservoir sedimentation and measured values is a function of watershed characteristics; for example, the area-weighted soil erodibility (K-) factor of the soils within the watershed and stream channels, the stream entrenchment ratio and bank full depth, the percentage of the stream corridor having slopes ≥ 21°, and the width of the stream flood way as a percentage of the watershed area. Within the context of GIS, these metrics are easily obtained from digital elevation models and publicly available soils data and may be useful in prioritizing reservoirs’ assessments for function and safety. Full article

Dam safety assessment is usually conducted regularly to investigate the risks associated with the dam and propose remedies to ensure effective reservoir operations. One crucial aspect of the evaluation involves performing hydrological analyses to determine if the existing spillway can successfully deliver the probable maximum flood (PMF) downstream. This study applied storm transposition and typhoon rainstorm methods for PMP estimations. The resulting PMP values were then used as input for runoff models to generate flood hydrographs for PMF determination. A modification for the storm transposition method was proposed to determine the barrier height considering the moisture inflow direction. In estimating the orographic rainfall in the typhoon rainstorm model, an effective terrain slope was suggested according to different windward directions based on DEM analysis. Shihmen Reservoir and Feitsui Reservoir, located in northern Taiwan, were used as examples to conduct the PMP and PMF analysis. The obtained PMPs were further compared with the results generated by Hershfield’s method to assess the reasonability of the estimation. The results show that the maximum deviation of the 24-h PMP values estimated by the three methods is within 30% in the Shihmen watershed and 16% in the Feitsui watershed. The PMF estimations in the two reservoir watersheds are larger than the design discharges of the existing spillways. Hence, extending the capacity of the existing spillways or constructing upstream bypasses to avoid catastrophic flooding downstream is required. Full article

The paper presents a functionality investigation of the key dam elements based on finite element analysis. A detailed analysis of filtration processes, dam strength, and the surrounding rock mass was conducted. Dam elements whose potential damage could jeopardize the normal functioning of the embankment dam have been identified. A particular emphasis was placed on the analysis of dam elements that have been identified as weak points. A numerical analysis of the impact of individual grout curtain zone failure on leakage under the dam body, a strength analysis of the overflow section, as well as the analysis of the slope stability that can compromise the functioning of the spillway have been performed. To analyze the partial stability of individual structural elements, a new measure of local stability was introduced as the remaining load-bearing capacity. As a case study, the Zavoj dam, which is a part of the Pirot reservoir system in the Republic of Serbia, was used. Investigation revealed that local damage to the grout curtain will not significantly increase leakage under the dam body, the overflow section is one of the most robust elements of the dam, but the slope above the spillway can compromise the functioning of the overflow and thus the safety of the entire dam. Based on the analysis of the results of the remaining load-bearing capacity, the dependence of the spillway capacity on earthquake intensity has been defined. The established relationship represents a surrogate model for further assessment of dynamic resilience of the complex multipurpose reservoir system, within the scope of the advanced reservoir system management. Full article

Almost all post exploitation open pit mines in the world are shaped as a final reservoir intended to be filled with water. In Europe, the creation of water lakes is the most common way of reclaiming post open pit mines. The safety and the security of mine lakes is one of the priorities of mine regions. One of the main hazards identified is the slope stability of lake banks. To develop a reliability methodology for assessing the long-term stability of flooded open pit mines, a large-scale numerical model of the lake was carried out and was applied on Lake Most, which is one of the largest mining lakes in Europe (Czech Republic). The large-scale numerical model was built, based on the site observations, large scale LiDAR data and geotechnical data. The results highlighted the reliability of the methodology to combine the geometric model with the geological model to create a large-scale numerical model, and to identify local and potentially instable zones. Full article

Seepage flux is very important in many hydraulic projects such as in the upper reservoir of a pumped storage power station because of its effect on economic benefits. However, upper reservoirs with a relatively high altitude are generally located above the groundwater level; thus, their leakage is difficult to estimate accurately. Here, using steady seepage theory and Darcy’s law, we propose a simplified calculation method to estimate the leakage of slope-wall rock-fill dams with a horizontal blanket. Using a one-dimensional governing equation for unsaturated seepage flows with the assumption of porous continuous media, formulas are derived for calculating the seepage flux of the dam in a steady state with different groundwater levels, which are mainly divided into two situations: those that are lower or higher than the bottom of the horizontal blanket. Then, two engineering examples are developed to assess the proposed method; the relative errors between the analytical results and numerical results are less than 10%. The results obtained from other analytical methods introduced by other researchers are also compared with our numerical results. The comparison results show that the proposed method is reliable and can be used for the estimation of reservoir leakage in situations where rapid results are needed, such as benefit assessments and safety evaluations. Full article