Search Results (90)

Classical epidemic models treat vaccine uptake as an exogenous parameter, yet real-world coverage emerges from strategic choices made by individuals facing uncertain risks. During the last two decades, vaccination games, which combine epidemic dynamics with game theory, behavioural economics, and network science, have become a very important tool for analysing this problem. Here, we synthesise more than 80 theoretical, computational, and empirical studies to clarify how population structure, psychological perception, pathogen complexity, and policy incentives interact to determine vaccination equilibria and epidemic outcomes. Papers are organised along five methodological axes: (i) population topology (well-mixed, static and evolving networks, multilayer systems); (ii) decision heuristics (risk assessment, imitation, prospect theory, memory); (iii) additional processes (information diffusion, non-pharmacological interventions, treatment, quarantine); (iv) policy levers (subsidies, penalties, mandates, communication); and (v) pathogen complexity (multi-strain, zoonotic reservoirs). Common findings across these studies are that voluntary vaccination is almost always sub-optimal; feedback between incidence and behaviour can generate oscillatory outbreaks; local network correlations amplify free-riding but enable cost-effective targeted mandates; psychological distortions such as probability weighting and omission bias materially shift equilibria; and mixed interventions (e.g., quarantine + vaccination) create dual dilemmas that may offset one another. Moreover, empirical work surveys, laboratory games, and field data confirm peer influence and prosocial motives, yet comprehensive model validation remains rare. Bridging the gap between stylised theory and operational policy will require data-driven calibration, scalable multilayer solvers, and explicit modelling of economic and psychological heterogeneity. This review offers a structured roadmap for future research on adaptive vaccination strategies in an increasingly connected and information-rich world. Full article

The transition to a sustainable energy future hinges on the development of reliable large-scale hydrogen storage solutions to balance the intermittency of renewable energy and decarbonize hard-to-abate industries. Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in salt caverns emerged as a technically and economically viable strategy, leveraging the unique geomechanical properties of salt formations—including low permeability, self-healing capabilities, and chemical inertness—to ensure safe and high-purity hydrogen storage under cyclic loading conditions. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of the advantages of salt cavern hydrogen storage, such as rapid injection and extraction capabilities, cost-effectiveness compared to other storage methods (e.g., hydrogen storage in depleted oil and gas reservoirs, aquifers, and aboveground tanks), and minimal environmental impact. It also addresses critical challenges, including hydrogen embrittlement, microbial activity, and regulatory fragmentation. Through global case studies, best operational practices for risk mitigation in real-world applications are highlighted, such as adaptive solution mining techniques and microbial monitoring. Focusing on China’s regional potential, this study evaluates the hydrogen storage feasibility of stratified salt areas such as Jiangsu Jintan, Hubei Yunying, and Henan Pingdingshan. By integrating technological innovation, policy coordination, and cross-sector collaboration, salt cavern hydrogen storage is poised to play a pivotal role in realizing a resilient hydrogen economy, bridging the gap between renewable energy production and industrial decarbonization. Full article

Effective sustainable fish farming necessitates enhanced models that incorporate environmental variability and contemporary monitoring methods. This research presents an innovative framework for assessing and modeling the environmental carrying capacity based on phosphorus (ECCp) in tropical and neotropical lakes and reservoirs. The model evaluates phosphorus waste from tilapia farming (Oreochromis niloticus) under diverse climatic conditions and production scenarios in cage systems. Using bioenergetic modeling and Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated phosphorus retention in fish and maximum production limits across different temperatures (21 °C, 25 °C, 29 °C) and dietary phosphorus concentrations (0.8%, 1.2%, 2.1%) in Brazil’s Chavantes reservoir. Results indicated that phosphorus retention diminished with higher dietary phosphorus and increased temperatures, ranging from 51% (0.8% P) to 20% (2.1% P). Phosphorus discharge ranged from 3.3 to 20.5 kg/ton of fish produced. The ECCp model forecasted an allowable production of roughly 40 tons per year at full operational capacity, reflecting a 41% increase compared to current regulations. The model’s accuracy (96%) surpassed that of traditional regulatory frameworks, which rely on static parameters, emphasizing the shortcomings of existing practices. The findings promote enhanced modeling strategies, sophisticated monitoring, adaptive management, and revised public policies to mitigate phosphorus emissions and support sustainable aquaculture in tropical and neotropical regions. Full article

Under the global climate governance framework, the Paris Agreement and the China–U.S. Glasgow Joint Declaration established a non-negotiable target of limiting 21st-century temperature rise to 1.5 °C. To date, over 130 nations have pledged carbon neutrality by mid-century, with agricultural activities contributing 25% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The spatiotemporal dynamics of these emissions critically determine the operational efficacy of carbon peaking and neutrality strategies. While China’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) commit to achieving carbon peaking by 2030, a policy gap persists regarding differentiated implementation pathways at the county level. Addressing this challenge, this study selects the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGRA)—a region characterized by monocultural cropping systems and intensive fertilizer dependency—as a representative case. Guided by IPCC emission accounting protocols, we systematically evaluate spatiotemporal distribution patterns of agricultural CH₄ and N₂O emissions across 18 county-level units from 2006 to 2020. The investigation advances through two sequential phases: Mechanistic drivers analysis: employing the STIRPAT model, we quantify bidirectional effects (positive/negative) of critical determinants—including agricultural mechanization intensity and grain productivity—on CH₄/N₂O emission fluxes. Pathway scenario prediction: We construct three developmental scenarios (low-carbon transition, business-as-usual, and high-resource dependency) integrated with regional planning parameters. This framework enables the identification of optimal peaking chronologies for each county and proposes gradient peaking strategies through spatial zoning, thereby resolving fragmented carbon governance in agrarian counties. Methodologically, we establish a multi-scenario simulation architecture incorporating socioeconomic growth thresholds and agroecological constraints. The derived decision-support system provides empirically grounded solutions for aligning subnational climate actions with global mitigation targets. Full article

Optimizing the joint drawdown operation of mega reservoirs presents a significant opportunity to enhance the comprehensive benefits among hydropower output, water release, and carbon emission reduction. However, achieving the complementary drawdown operation of mega reservoirs while considering reservoir carbon emissions poses a notable challenge. In this context, this study introduces an innovative multi-objective optimization framework tailored for the joint drawdown operation of mega reservoirs. Firstly, a multi-objective optimization model, leveraging an intelligent evolutionary algorithm, is developed to minimize reservoir carbon emissions (Objective 1), maximize hydropower output (Objective 2), and maximize water release (Objective 3). Subsequently, a multi-criteria decision-making approach to search for the optimal scheme is employed. The proposed framework is applied to seven mega reservoirs within the Hanjiang River basin, China. The results show that the framework is effective in promoting comprehensive benefits, improving hydropower production by 8.3%, reservoir carbon emission reduction by 5.6%, and water release by 6.2% from the optimal solution under wet scenarios, compared to standard operation policies. This study not only provides a fresh perspective on the multi-objective drawdown operation of mega reservoirs but also offers valuable support to stakeholders and decision-makers in formulating viable strategic recommendations that take potential carbon emissions and advantages into account. Full article

With the continuous growth of global energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions are also rising, leading to serious challenges posed by climate change. Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technology is considered one of the key pathways to mitigate climate change. Among the CCUS technologies, CO₂ storage in offshore saline aquifers has gained significant attention in recent years. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the Sleipner and Snøhvit projects in Norway and the Tomakomai project in Japan, exploring key issues related to the application, geological characteristics, injection strategies, monitoring systems, and simulation methods of CO₂ storage in offshore saline aquifers. This study finds that CO₂ storage in offshore saline aquifers has high safety and storage potential but faces several challenges in practical applications, such as geological reservoir characteristics, technological innovation, operational costs, and social acceptance. Therefore, it is necessary to further strengthen technological innovation and policy support to promote the development and application of CO₂ storage in offshore saline aquifers. This study provides valuable experiences and insights for similar projects worldwide, contributing to the sustainable development of CO₂ storage in offshore saline aquifers and making a greater contribution to achieving global net-zero emission targets. Full article

Small-scale open-pit, non-artisanal mining of low-value ores is an understudied practice despite its widespread occurrence and potential impact on freshwater resources due to mining-induced land-use/cover changes (LUCCs). This research investigates the long-term impacts of andesite mining in Pasuruan, Indonesia, on the Umbulan Spring’s water discharge within its watershed. System Dynamics (SD) modeling captures the systemic and systematic impact of mining-induced LUCCs on discharge volumes and groundwater recharge. Agricultural and reservoir-based land reclamation scenarios then reveal post-mining temporal dynamics. The no-mining scenario sees the spring’s discharge consistently decrease until an inflection point in 2032. With mining expansion, reductions accelerate by ~1.44 million tons over two decades, or 65.31 thousand tons annually. LUCCs also decrease groundwater recharge by ~2.48 million tons via increased surface runoff. Proposed post-mining land interventions over reclaimed mining areas influence water volumes differently. Reservoirs on reclaimed land lead to ~822.14 million extra tons of discharge, 2.75 times higher than the agricultural scenario. Moreover, reservoirs can restore original recharge levels by 2039, while agriculture only reduces the mining impact by 28.64% on average. These findings reveal that small-scale non-artisanal andesite mining can disrupt regional hydrology despite modest operating scales. Thus, evidence-based guidelines are needed for permitting such mines based on environmental risk and site water budgets. Policy options include discharge or aquifer recharge caps tailored to small-scale andesite mines. The varied outputs of rehabilitation scenarios also highlight evaluating combined land and water management interventions. With agriculture alone proving insufficient, optimized mixes of revegetation and water harvesting require further exploration. Full article

The efficient operation of multi-reservoirs is highly beneficial for securing supply for prevailing demand and ecological flow. This study proposes a monthly hedging rule-based aggregation–decomposition model for optimizing a parallel reservoir system. The proposed model, which is an aggregated hedging rule for ecological flow (AHRE), uses external optimization to determine the total release of the reservoir system based on improved hedging rules—the optimization model aims to minimize water demand and ecological flow deficits. Additionally, inner optimization distributes the release to individual reservoirs to maintain equal reservoir storage rates. To verify the effectiveness of the AHRE, a standard operation policy and transformed hedging rules were selected for comparison. Three parallel reservoirs in the Naesung Stream Basin in South Korea were selected as a study area. The results of this study demonstrate that the AHRE is better than the other two methods in terms of supplying water in line with demand and ecological flow. In addition, the AHRE showed relatively stable operation results with small water-level fluctuations, owing to the application of improved hedging rules and a decomposition method. The results indicate that the AHRE has the capacity to improve downstream river ecosystems while maintaining human water use and provide a superior response to uncertain droughts. Full article

Nowadays, a detailed safety policy is applied for dams. These policies cover structural safety, monitoring, inspection, safe operation, and emergency plans. For high-risk dams, all these policy elements need to be included in dam safety programs. Deficiencies in embankment dams, which suffer the most damage, can be detected by visual inspection and programmed monitoring of dams. In dams, horizontal and vertical deformation, leakage, pressure, stress, loads acting on structural elements, and environmental factors are generally measured. These behaviors can be numerically modeled to determine the dam behavior. Numerical analysis methods are important for monitoring the safety of the dam. Models created with software such as Plaxis provide information about dam behavior. Although numerical analysis is very important for dams, obtaining the material parameters used in the construction of the dam needed for modeling, recording the construction stages of the dam, not taking the water level change in the dam reservoir instantaneously, and not taking the measurement records of the dam measurement instruments correctly for different reasons constitute problems and difficulties for the analyses. Within the scope of this study, İkizdere Dam in Turkey was modeled with the Plaxis finite element program; the survey and piezometer measurement data taken from the dam were evaluated by comparing with the analysis results; the difficulties and problems encountered in the modeling and analysis phase were stated, and recommendations were made on dam safety and numerical analysis. Thus, in addition to other studies, it was emphasized that it is important for dam engineers to monitor the use of numerical analysis models throughout the entire process, not only in the planning phase but also from the planning phase to the life of the dam, and to keep records of all recording intervals that will be needed in digital analysis models. Full article

This paper presents a novel methodology for modeling hydropower plants (HPPs) with and without pumping capability in resource adequacy assessment studies. The proposed method is based on the premise that HPPs should maximize their contribution to system adequacy within their technical constraints by using the energy reserves in their upper reservoirs without significantly deviating from their market schedule. The approach of this paper differs from the conventional operating policies for incorporating HPPs into resource adequacy assessment studies, which either adhere to a fixed market schedule or perform peak shaving, and are inelastic to real-time events or do not resort to realistic temporal correlations between natural water inflows on upper reservoirs and the water discharge needs to cover demand peaks, respectively. The modeling approach focuses on large-reservoir HPPs with natural inflows and is generic enough to deal with both stations incorporating pumping capabilities and those without. It utilizes the state-of-the-art Monte Carlo simulation technique to form the availability of system assets and determine the loss of load incidents. The market schedule and level of reservoir fulfillment for the HPPs are retrieved from a cost-optimal power system simulation algorithm executed offline before the application of the resource adequacy assessment. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through its implementation in a case study of a power system experiencing different levels of adequacy, comparing the obtained results with various traditional HPP modeling methods from the literature. Full article

Water reservoirs are important sources of drinking water in many parts of the world. The aim of the article is to check how water management is carried out in the Dobromierz reservoir (southwestern Poland) in the aspect of climate variability and defining recommendations for water management of this object. The reservoir was put into operation in 1986 and supplies drinking water to the city of Świebodzice. The analysis of water management (expressed by characteristic flows) showed that in most cases it is carried out in accordance with the water management manual (average compliance of approximately 93%). The main problems in the proper operation of this facility, based on literature analysis, were a lack of constant water monitoring inflow and outflow from the reservoir, lack of a fish ladder, and unsatisfactory water quality due to agricultural pollutants. The solution to these problems would be to install monitoring devices, build a fish ladder, and regulate the use of arable lands. It was shown that the construction of the reservoir had an impact on the dynamics of annual flows in the Strzegomka River (reduced fluctuations in flows after the reservoir was put into operation; daily data from Łażany water gauge, 1951–2022). Moreover, climate variability has an impact on water management (changes in temperature and sunshine duration, which affect the dynamics of flows) Water management in reservoirs should be adapted to local conditions, as well as strategies for dealing with climate variability, recommendations, documentation, and policies at various levels of management. Full article

The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), a landmark of human engineering, has significantly altered the hydrodynamics and ecology of its surrounding environment. Our research explores the hydrodynamic and ecological changes in the TGR, focusing on their implications for reservoir-induced water quality and water resource issues. We designed a 2D hydrodynamic and water quality model and implemented 15 operational scenarios with an advanced dynamic storage capacity method for the TGR during flood season, drawdown and impoundment periods. Our simulations well reproduced and predicted water levels, discharge rates, and thermal conditions of the TGR, providing critical insights. The dynamic storage capacity method significantly improved the precision of water level simulations. This approach achieved modeling errors below 0.2 m when compared to real measurements from seven stations. We performed a detailed analysis of the sensitive, sub-sensitive, and insensitive areas during three reservoir operation periods. The drawdown period showed the most extensive impact range (468 km river channel), while the impoundment period had the least impact range (76 km river channel). Furthermore, we quantified the delay of temperature waves during these periods, observing a maximum delay of approximately 120 km and a minimum delay of less than 10 km, which underscores the variability in hydrodynamic responses under different operational scenarios. Our findings reveal the complex sensitivities of the TGR to varied operational modes, aiding in the development of eutrophication and water resources control strategies. Our modeling application provides different operational scenarios and insights for ecological management strategies in large dam systems globally, informing future water resource management and policy-making, ensuring sustainable and effective management of large reservoir systems. Full article

As the share of variable renewables in the power system generation mix increases, meeting capacity requirements becomes challenging. In this context, hydropower reservoirs can play a vital role in integrating renewable energy due to their storage potential, contributing to meeting power supply criteria. However, given that reservoirs serve multiple purposes, various constraints can limit their capacity potential. This article introduces an analytical methodology that is designed to evaluate the maximum available power of hydro plants in critical scenarios. By applying concepts related to hydropower production calculations for the peak power demand and metrics evaluating the compliance with supply criteria, this study distinguishes itself from region-specific investigations. It conducts a generalized analysis of power availability across all regions of Brazil, with a focus on identifying the reasons for the most significant power losses and their specific locations. The results of this analysis demonstrate the feasibility of enhancing the available power of reservoirs, effectively addressing demand fluctuations, and sustainably improving energy security. This is particularly crucial in countries that are heavily reliant on renewables, including hydropower, for a huge portion of their electricity. The findings underscore the feasibility of increasing the penetration of variable renewable generation by optimizing the operation of existing hydropower plants. This optimization not only enhances energy security but also contributes to a more resilient and sustainable future, benefiting policy makers, energy planners, and stakeholders in the field of hydropower with reservoirs. Full article

Constructing and operating cascade reservoirs significantly contribute to comprehensive basin water resource management, while altering natural hydrological regimes of rivers, which imposes negative impacts on riverine ecology. The main aim of this study is to synergistically optimize the objectives of increasing hydropower generation and alleviating hydrological regime alteration for cascade reservoirs. This study first proposed a dynamic time warping scenario backward reduction (DTW-SBR) framework to extract streamflow scenarios from the historical streamflow series regarded as benchmarks for calculating deviation degrees of hydrological regimes. Then a multi-objective long-term operation model considering the hydrological regime and hydroelectricity was formed for minimizing the deviation degrees of hydrological regimes at the downstream section (O1) and maximizing the hydropower generation of cascade reservoirs (O2). The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) combined with the long-term conventional operation (CO) rules of cascade reservoirs was adopted to produce the Pareto-front solutions to derive the recommended policies for guiding the long-term operation of cascade reservoirs. The six large reservoirs in the middle reaches of the Jinsha River, China with a 10-day runoff dataset spanning from 1953 to 2015 constitute a case study. The results showed that nine streamflow scenarios were extracted for calculating the O1 by the DTW-SBR framework, which could reflect the intra- and inter- annual variability of hydrological regimes at the Panzhihua hydrological station. The Pareto-front solutions obtained by the NSGA-II revealed competitive relationships between the O1 and O2. As compared to the long-term CO rules of cascade reservoirs, the O1 value could be reduced by up to 42,312 (corresponding rate of 10.51%) and the O2 value could be improved by up to 1752 × 10⁸ kW·h (corresponding rate of 5.14%). Based on the inclination to be dominated by different objectives, three typical operation schemes, A, B and C, were chosen from the Pareto-front solutions; Scheme A could be considered as the recommended solution, which simultaneously reduced the O1 value by 23,965 with the rate of 5.95% and increased the O2 value by 1752 × 10⁸ kW·h with the rate of 5.14%, as compared to the long-term CO rules. This study can provide references on boosting the synergies of hydropower production and hydrological regime restoration for the long-term ecological operation of cascade reservoirs. Full article

To address the issues of instability and inefficiency that the fluctuating and uncertain characteristics of renewable energy sources impose on low-carbon microgrids, this research introduces a novel Knowledge-Data-Driven Load Frequency Control (KDD-LFC) approach. This advanced strategy seamlessly combines pre-existing knowledge frameworks with the capabilities of deep learning neural networks, enabling the adaptive management and multi-faceted optimization of microgrid functionalities, with a keen emphasis on the symmetry and equilibrium of active power. Initially, the process involves the cultivation of foundational knowledge through established methodologies to augment the reservoir of experience. Following this, a Knowledge-Aggregation-based Proximal Policy Optimization (KA-PPO) technique is employed, which proficiently acquires an understanding of the microgrid’s state representations and operational tactics. This strategy meticulously navigates the delicate balance between the exploration of new strategies and the exploitation of known efficacies, ensuring the harmonization of frequency stability, precision in tracking, and the optimization of control expenditures through the strategic formulation of the reward function. The empirical validation of the KDD-LFC method’s effectiveness and its superiority are demonstrated via simulation tests conducted on the load frequency control (LFC) framework of the Sansha isolated island microgrid, which is under the administration of the China Southern Grid. Full article