Framework for Estimating Environmental Carrying Capacity in Diverse Climatic Conditions and Fish Farming Production in Neotropical Reservoirs

Godoy, Elisa Maia de; Camargo, Tavani Rocha; Toniato, Moranne; Proença, Danilo Cintra; Obando, Johana Marcela Concha; Roubach, Rodrigo; Gallardo, Pablo; Bueno, Guilherme Wolff

doi:10.3390/su17125282

This is an early access version, the complete PDF, HTML, and XML versions will be available soon.

Open AccessArticle

Framework for Estimating Environmental Carrying Capacity in Diverse Climatic Conditions and Fish Farming Production in Neotropical Reservoirs

by

Elisa Maia de Godoy

^1,2

,

Tavani Rocha Camargo

¹,

Moranne Toniato

^1,2,

Danilo Cintra Proença

²

,

Johana Marcela Concha Obando

³

,

Rodrigo Roubach

⁴

,

Pablo Gallardo

⁵

and

Guilherme Wolff Bueno

^1,3,6,7,*

¹

Aquaculture Center of UNESP—Caunesp, Jaboticabal, Brazil São Paulo 14884-900, SP, Brazil

²

Biomonetize Valuation and Monetization of Environmental Services Ltda, Bioeconomy Living Lab and Incubator for Science and Technology Based Companies in the Ribeira Valley and Southern Coast of the State of São Paulo—Aquário de Ideias, Registro 11900-000, SP, Brazil

³

National Institute of Science and Technology in Nanotechnology for Sustainable Agriculture, INCTNanoAgro, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Sorocaba 18087-180, SP, Brazil

⁴

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations—FAO/UN, Fisheries and Aquaculture Department, 00153 Rome, Italy

⁵

Department of Agricultural and Aquaculture Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, University of Magallanes, Punta Arenas 6200000, Chile

⁶

Department of Fisheries Resources and Aquaculture, Institute of Advanced Marine Studies (IEAMar), School of Agricultural Sciences, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Registro 11900-000, SP, Brazil

⁷

Department of Fisheries Resources and Aquaculture (DERPA), Research Center for Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change (CBioClima), São Paulo State University (UNESP), Campus of Registro, Registro 11900-000, SP, Brazil

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Sustainability 2025, 17(12), 5282; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125282 (registering DOI)

Submission received: 16 April 2025 / Revised: 22 May 2025 / Accepted: 31 May 2025 / Published: 7 June 2025

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental and Economic Sustainability in Agri-Food System)

Download Versions Notes

Abstract

Effective sustainable fish farming necessitates enhanced models that incorporate environmental variability and contemporary monitoring methods. This research presents an innovative framework for assessing and modeling the environmental carrying capacity based on phosphorus (ECCp) in tropical and neotropical lakes and reservoirs. The model evaluates phosphorus waste from tilapia farming (Oreochromis niloticus) under diverse climatic conditions and production scenarios in cage systems. Using bioenergetic modeling and Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated phosphorus retention in fish and maximum production limits across different temperatures (21 °C, 25 °C, 29 °C) and dietary phosphorus concentrations (0.8%, 1.2%, 2.1%) in Brazil’s Chavantes reservoir. Results indicated that phosphorus retention diminished with higher dietary phosphorus and increased temperatures, ranging from 51% (0.8% P) to 20% (2.1% P). Phosphorus discharge ranged from 3.3 to 20.5 kg/ton of fish produced. The ECCp model forecasted an allowable production of roughly 40 tons per year at full operational capacity, reflecting a 41% increase compared to current regulations. The model’s accuracy (96%) surpassed that of traditional regulatory frameworks, which rely on static parameters, emphasizing the shortcomings of existing practices. The findings promote enhanced modeling strategies, sophisticated monitoring, adaptive management, and revised public policies to mitigate phosphorus emissions and support sustainable aquaculture in tropical and neotropical regions.

Keywords: aquaculture; bioeconomy; environmental carrying capacity; Nile tilapia; phosphorus retention; climatic and environmental scenarios; probability analysis

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Godoy, E.M.d.; Camargo, T.R.; Toniato, M.; Proença, D.C.; Obando, J.M.C.; Roubach, R.; Gallardo, P.; Bueno, G.W. Framework for Estimating Environmental Carrying Capacity in Diverse Climatic Conditions and Fish Farming Production in Neotropical Reservoirs. Sustainability 2025, 17, 5282. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125282

AMA Style

Godoy EMd, Camargo TR, Toniato M, Proença DC, Obando JMC, Roubach R, Gallardo P, Bueno GW. Framework for Estimating Environmental Carrying Capacity in Diverse Climatic Conditions and Fish Farming Production in Neotropical Reservoirs. Sustainability. 2025; 17(12):5282. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125282

Chicago/Turabian Style

Godoy, Elisa Maia de, Tavani Rocha Camargo, Moranne Toniato, Danilo Cintra Proença, Johana Marcela Concha Obando, Rodrigo Roubach, Pablo Gallardo, and Guilherme Wolff Bueno. 2025. "Framework for Estimating Environmental Carrying Capacity in Diverse Climatic Conditions and Fish Farming Production in Neotropical Reservoirs" Sustainability 17, no. 12: 5282. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125282

APA Style

Godoy, E. M. d., Camargo, T. R., Toniato, M., Proença, D. C., Obando, J. M. C., Roubach, R., Gallardo, P., & Bueno, G. W. (2025). Framework for Estimating Environmental Carrying Capacity in Diverse Climatic Conditions and Fish Farming Production in Neotropical Reservoirs. Sustainability, 17(12), 5282. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125282

Note that from the first issue of 2016, this journal uses article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Menu

Framework for Estimating Environmental Carrying Capacity in Diverse Climatic Conditions and Fish Farming Production in Neotropical Reservoirs

Abstract

Share and Cite

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

Further Information

Guidelines

MDPI Initiatives

Follow MDPI