Search Results (1,803)

For a long time, the explanation of the various determinants of oil price fluctuations and their impact on economic activity has been based on the supply and demand mechanism. However, with various volatile changes in the international situation in recent years, such as threats to public health and an increase in regional conflicts, special attention has been paid to the geopolitical context as an additional driver of oil price fluctuations. This study examines the relationship between oil price changes and GDP growth and other macroeconomic variables from the perspective of the vulnerability of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries to unexpected oil price shocks, driven by tense geopolitical events, in three European countries (Norway, Germany, and Poland). We apply the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model and orthogonalized impulse response functions, based on quarterly data, in regard to two samples: the first spans 1995Q1–2019Q4 (pre-2020 sample), with relatively gradual changes in oil prices, and the second spans 1995Q1–2024Q2 (whole sample), with sudden fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical developments. A key finding of this research is that vulnerability to unpredictable oil price shocks related to geopolitical tensions is higher than in regard to expected gradual changes in oil prices, both in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Different causality patterns and stronger responses in regard to GDP growth during the period, including in regard to tense geopolitical events in comparison to the pre-2020 sample, lead to the belief that economies are not more resilient to oil price shocks as has been suggested by some studies, which referred to periods that were not driven by geopolitical events. Our research also suggests that countries implementing policies to reduce oil dependency and promote investment in alternative energy sources are better equipped to mitigate the adverse effects of oil price shocks. Full article

In UGC-based knowledge trading platforms, the abundance of personalized content often leads to varying quality levels. By incorporating embedded advertising, platforms can incentivize knowledge producers to produce high-quality content; however, the uncertainty in managing embedded advertisements increases the complexity of pricing knowledge products. This paper examines the impact of embedded advertising on the pricing of knowledge products, aims to maximize the profits of both knowledge producer and the platform. Based on Stackelberg game theory, two pricing decision models are developed under different advertising management modes: the platform-managed mode (where the platform determines the advertising intensity) and the advertiser-managed mode (where the advertiser determines the advertising intensity). The study analyzes the effects of UGC product quality, consumer sensitivity to advertising, and power structure on knowledge product pricing, and derives threshold conditions for optimal pricing. The results indicate that (1) When the quality of UGC knowledge product exceeds a certain threshold, platform-managed advertising becomes profitable. (2) Under the platform-managed mode, both the platform and knowledge producer can adopt price-increasing strategies to enhance profits. (3) Under the advertiser-managed mode, the platform can leverage differences in power structure to optimize revenue, while knowledge producer can actively enhance his pricing power to achieve mutual benefits with the platform. This study provides theoretical support and practical guidance for advertising cooperation mechanisms and pricing strategies for knowledge products in UGC-based knowledge trading platforms. Full article

This study proposes a novel Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) policy network structure for portfolio management called PortRSMs. PortRSMs employs stacked State-Space Models (SSMs) for the modeling of multi-scale continuous regime shifts in financial time series, striking a balance between exploring consistent distribution properties over short periods and maintaining sensitivity to sudden shocks in price sequences. PortRSMs also performs cross-asset regime fusion through hypergraph attention mechanisms, providing a more comprehensive state space for describing changes in asset correlations and co-integration. Experiments conducted on two different trading frequencies in the stock markets of the United States and Hong Kong show the superiority of PortRSMs compared to other approaches in terms of profitability, risk–return balancing, robustness, and the ability to handle sudden market shocks. Specifically, PortRSMs achieves up to a 0.03 improvement in the annual Sharpe ratio in the U.S. market, and up to a 0.12 improvement for the Hong Kong market compared to baseline methods. Full article

This study develops an integrated environmental–economic assessment framework to evaluate the life cycle environmental impacts and economic costs of CO₂ geological storage and produced water treatment in saline formations in China. Using a case study of a saline aquifer carbon storage project in the Ordos Basin, eight full-chain carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) scenarios were analyzed. The results indicate that environmental and cost performance are primarily influenced by technology choices across carbon capture, transport, and storage stages. The scenario employing potassium carbonate-based capture, pipeline transport, and brine reinjection after a reverse osmosis treatment (S5) achieved the most balanced outcome. Breakeven analyses under three carbon price projection models revealed that carbon price trajectories critically affect project viability, with a steadily rising carbon price enabling earlier profitability. By decoupling CCUS from power systems and focusing on unit CO₂ removal, this study provides a transparent and transferable framework to support cross-sectoral deployment. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to design effective CCUS support mechanisms under future carbon neutrality targets. Full article

Population aging poses significant challenges to the sustainability of pension systems. This study presents an integrated methodological approach that uniquely combines actuarial life-cycle modeling with agent-based simulation to assess the potential of Reverse Mortgage Loans (RMLs) as a dual lever for enhancing retiree welfare and supporting pension system resilience under demographic and financial uncertainty. We explore Reverse Mortgage Loans (RMLs) as a potential financial instrument to support retirees while alleviating pressure on public pensions. Unlike prior research that treats individual decisions or policy outcomes in isolation, our hybrid model explicitly captures feedback loops between household-level behavior and system-wide financial stability. To test our hypothesis that RMLs can improve individual consumption outcomes and bolster systemic solvency, we develop a hybrid model combining actuarial techniques and agent-based simulations, incorporating stochastic housing prices, longevity risk, regulatory capital requirements, and demographic shifts. This dual-framework enables a structured investigation of how micro-level financial decisions propagate through market dynamics, influencing solvency, pricing, and adoption trends. Our central hypothesis is that reverse mortgages, when actuarially calibrated and macroprudentially regulated, enhance individual financial well-being while preserving long-run solvency at the system level. Simulation results indicate that RMLs can improve consumption smoothing, raise expected utility for retirees, and contribute to long-term fiscal sustainability. Moreover, we introduce a dynamic regulatory mechanism that adjusts capital buffers based on evolving market and demographic conditions, enhancing system resilience. Our simulation design supports multi-scenario testing of financial robustness and policy outcomes, providing a transparent tool for stress-testing RML adoption at scale. These findings suggest that, when well-regulated, RMLs can serve as a viable supplement to traditional retirement financing. Rather than offering prescriptive guidance, this framework provides insights to policymakers, financial institutions, and regulators seeking to integrate RMLs into broader pension strategies. Full article

Introduction and Objectives: Risk-sharing agreements (RSAs) have emerged as a key strategy for financing high-cost medical technologies while ensuring financial sustainability. These payment mechanisms mitigate clinical and financial uncertainties, optimizing pricing and reimbursement decisions. Despite their widespread adoption globally, Latin America has reported limited implementation, particularly for high-cost medical devices. This study aims to share insights from designing RSAs in the form of Outcome Protection Programs (OPPs) for medical devices in Latin America from the perspective of a medical devices company. Methods: The report follows a structured approach, defining key OPP dimensions: payment base, access criteria, pricing schemes, risk assessment, and performance incentives. Risks were categorized as financial, clinical, and operational. The framework applied principles from prior models, emphasizing negotiation, program design, implementation, and evaluation. A multidisciplinary task force analyzed patient needs, provider motivations, and payer constraints to ensure alignment with health system priorities. Results: Over two semesters, a panel of seven experts from the manufacturer designed n = 105 innovative payment programs implemented in Argentina (n = 7), Brazil (n = 7), Colombia (n = 75), Mexico (n = 9), Panama (n = 4), and Puerto Rico (n = 3). The programs targeted eight high-burden conditions, including Coronary Artery Disease, atrial fibrillation, Heart Failure, and post-implantation arrhythmias, among others. Private providers accounted for 80% of experiences. Challenges include clinical inertia and operational complexities, necessitating structured training and monitoring mechanisms. Conclusions: Outcome Protection Programs offer a viable and practical risk-sharing approach to financing high-cost medical devices in Latin America. Their implementation requires careful stakeholder alignment, clear eligibility criteria and endpoints, and robust monitoring frameworks. These findings contribute to the ongoing dialogue on sustainable healthcare financing, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches in resource-constrained settings. Full article

The increasing penetration of distributed renewable energy and the emergence of large-scale, flexible loads such as data centers pose significant challenges to the economic and secure operation of distribution systems. Traditional static pricing mechanisms are often inadequate, leading to inefficient resource dispatch and curtailment of renewable generation. To address these issues, this paper proposes a hierarchical pricing and dispatch framework modeled as a tri-level Stackelberg game that coordinates interactions among an upstream grid, a distribution system operator (DSO), and multiple virtual power plants (VPPs). At the upper level, the DSO acts as the leader, formulating dynamic time-varying purchase and sale prices to maximize its revenue based on upstream grid conditions. In response, at the lower level, each VPP acts as a follower, optimally scheduling its portfolio of distributed energy resources—including microturbines, energy storage, and interruptible loads—to minimize its operating costs under the announced tariffs. A key innovation is the integration of a schedulable data center within one VPP, which responds to a specially designed wind-linked incentive tariff by shifting computational workloads to periods of high renewable availability. The resulting high-dimensional bilevel optimization problem is solved using a Kriging-based surrogate methodology to ensure computational tractability. Simulation results verify that, compared to a static-pricing baseline, the proposed strategy increases DSO revenue by 18.9% and reduces total VPP operating costs by over 28%, demonstrating a robust framework for enhancing system-wide economic and operational efficiency. Full article

The countries and regions along the Belt and Road are rich in wetland carbon sink resources, crucial for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and achieving global emission reduction. This paper uses policy analysis and desk research to analyze the overview of wetland carbon sinks in these countries. It explores the necessity of legal system construction for their carbon sink trading. This study finds that smooth trading requires clear property rights definition rules, efficient market trading entities, definite carbon sink trading price rules, financial support aligned with the Equator Principles, and support from biodiversity-compatible environmental regulatory principles. Currently, there are still obstacles in wetland carbon sink trading in the Belt and Road, such as property rights confirmation, an accounting system, an imperfect market trading mechanism, and the coexistence of multiple trading risks. Therefore, this paper first proposes to clarify the goal of the legal guarantee mechanism. Efforts should focus on promoting a consensus on wetland carbon sink ownership and establishing a unified accounting standard system; simultaneously, the relevant departments should conduct field investigations and monitoring, standardize the market order, and strengthen government financial support and funding guarantees. Full article

In today’s volatile supply chain environment, organizations require flexible and collaborative procurement strategies. Swap contracts, originally developed as financial instruments, have recently been adopted to address inventory imbalances—such as the 2021 COVID-19 vaccine swap between South Korea and Israel. Despite its increasing adoption in the real world, theoretical studies on swap-based procurement remain limited. This study proposes an integrated model that combines buyer-to-buyer swap agreements with long-term wholesale contracts under demand uncertainty. The model quantifies the expected swap quantity between parties and embeds it into the profit function to derive optimal order quantities. Numerical experiments are conducted to compare the performance of the proposed strategy with that of a baseline wholesale contract. Sensitivity analyses are performed on key parameters, including demand asymmetry and swap prices. The numerical analysis indicates that the swap-integrated procurement strategy consistently outperforms procurement based on long-term wholesale contracts. Moreover, the results reveal that under the swap-integrated strategy, the optimal order quantity must be adjusted—either increased or decreased—depending on the demand scale of the counterpart and the specified swap price, deviating from the optimal quantity under traditional long-term contracts. These findings highlight the potential of swap-integrated procurement strategies as practical coordination mechanisms across both private and public sectors, offering strategic value in contexts such as vaccine distribution, fresh produce, and other critical products. Full article

Numerous studies have demonstrated that in residential areas of Western cities, both luxury and legacy effects significantly shape tree species diversity dynamics. However, the specific mechanisms driving these diversity patterns in China, where urbanization has progressed at an unprecedented pace, remain poorly understood. In this study we selected 20 residential settlements and 7 key socio-economic properties to investigate the change trend of tree diversity (2006–2021) and its socio-economic driving factors in Beijing. Our results demonstrate significant increases in total, native, and exotic tree species richness between 2006 and 2021 (p < 0.05), with average increases of 36%, 26%, and 55%, respectively. Total and exotic tree Shannon-Wiener indices, as well as exotic tree Simpson’s index, were also significantly higher in 2021 (p < 0.05). Housing prices was the dominant driver shaping total and exotic tree diversity, showing significant positive correlations with both metrics. In contrast, native tree diversity exhibited a strong positive association with neighborhood age. Our findings highlight two dominant mechanisms: legacy effect, where older neighborhoods preserve native diversity through historical planting practices, and luxury effect, where affluent communities drive exotic species proliferation through ornamental landscaping initiatives. These findings elucidate the dual dynamics of legacy conservation and luxury-driven cultivation in urban forest development, revealing how historical contingencies and contemporary socioeconomic forces jointly shape tree diversity patterns in urban ecosystems. Full article

Demand Side Management (DSM) plays a crucial role in modern energy systems, enabling more efficient use of energy resources and contributing to the sustainability of the power grid. This study examines DSM strategies within a multi-environment context encompassing residential, commercial, and industrial sectors, with a focus on diverse appliance types that exhibit distinct operational characteristics and user preferences. Initially, a single-objective optimization approach using Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is employed to minimize the total energy cost under a real Time-of-Use (ToU) pricing scheme. This heuristic method allows for the effective scheduling of appliance operations while factoring in their unique characteristics such as power consumption, usage duration, and user-defined operational flexibility. This study extends the optimization problem to a multi-objective framework that incorporates the minimization of CO₂ emissions under a real annual energy mix while also accounting for user discomfort. The Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) is utilized for this purpose, providing a Pareto-optimal set of solutions that balances these competing objectives. The inclusion of multiple objectives ensures a comprehensive assessment of DSM strategies, aiming to reduce environmental impact and enhance user satisfaction. Additionally, this study monitors the Peak-to-Average Ratio (PAR) to evaluate the impact of DSM strategies on load balancing and grid stability. It also analyzes the impact of considering different periods of the year with the associated ToU hourly schedule and CO₂ emissions hourly profile. A key innovation of this research is the integration of detailed, category-specific metrics that enable the disaggregation of costs, emissions, and user discomfort across residential, commercial, and industrial appliances. This granularity enables stakeholders to implement tailored strategies that align with specific operational goals and regulatory compliance. Also, the emphasis on a user discomfort indicator allows us to explore the flexibility available in such DSM mechanisms. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed multi-objective optimization approach in achieving significant cost savings that may reach 20% for industrial applications, while the order of magnitude of the trade-offs involved in terms of emissions reduction, improvement in discomfort, and PAR reduction is quantified for different frameworks. The outcomes not only underscore the efficacy of applying advanced optimization frameworks to real-world problems but also point to pathways for future research in smart energy management. This comprehensive analysis highlights the potential of advanced DSM techniques to enhance the sustainability and resilience of energy systems while also offering valuable policy implications. Full article

The accelerating integration of electric vehicles (EVs) into contemporary transportation infrastructure has underscored significant limitations in traditional charging paradigms, particularly in accommodating heterogeneous user requirements within dynamic operational environments. This study presents a differentiated optimization framework for EV charging strategies through the systematic classification of user types. A multidimensional decision-making environment is established for three representative user categories—residential, commercial, and industrial—by synthesizing time-variant electricity pricing models with dynamic carbon emission pricing mechanisms. A bi-level optimization architecture is subsequently formulated, leveraging deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to capture user-specific demand characteristics through customized reward functions and adaptive constraint structures. Validation is conducted within a high-fidelity simulation environment featuring 90 autonomous EV charging agents operating in a metropolitan parking facility. Empirical results indicate that the proposed typology-driven approach yields a 32.6% average cost reduction across user groups relative to baseline charging protocols, with statistically significant improvements in expenditure optimization (p < 0.01). Further interpretability analysis employing gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM) demonstrates that the model’s attention mechanisms are well aligned with theoretically anticipated demand prioritization patterns across the distinct user types, thereby confirming the decision-theoretic soundness of the framework. Full article

With the support of the dual-carbon strategy and related policies, China’s offshore wind power has experienced rapid development. However, constrained by the inherent intermittency and volatility of wind power, large-scale expansion poses significant challenges to grid integration and exacerbates government fiscal burdens. To address these critical issues, this paper proposes a multi-market coupling trading model integrating energy storage-equipped offshore wind power into electricity–carbon–green certificate markets for large-scale grid networks. Firstly, a day-ahead electricity market optimization model that incorporates energy storage is established to maximize power revenue by coordinating offshore wind power generation, thermal power dispatch, and energy storage charging/discharging strategies. Subsequently, carbon market and green certificate market optimization models are developed to quantify Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) volume, carbon quotas, carbon emissions, market revenues, green certificate quantities, pricing mechanisms, and associated economic benefits. To validate the model’s effectiveness, a gradient ascent-optimized game-theoretic model and a double auction mechanism are introduced as benchmark comparisons. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model increases market revenues by 17.13% and 36.18%, respectively, compared to the two benchmark models. It not only improves wind power penetration and comprehensive profitability but also effectively alleviates government subsidy pressures through coordinated carbon–green certificate trading mechanisms. Full article

This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of climate risk and financial stability literature through a systematic review and bibliometric analysis of 174 Scopus-indexed publications from 1988 to 2024. Publications increased by 500% from 1988 to 2019, indicating growing research interest following the 2015 Paris Agreement. It explores how physical and transition climate risks affect financial markets, asset pricing, financial regulation, and long-term sustainability. Common themes include macroprudential policy, climate disclosures, and environmental risk integration in financial management. Influential authors and key journals are identified, with keyword analysis showing strong links between “climate change”, “financial stability”, and “climate risk”. Various methodologies are used, including econometric modeling, panel data analysis, and policy review. The main finding indicates a shift toward integrated, risk-based financial frameworks and rising concern over systemic climate threats. Policy implications include the need for harmonized disclosures, ESG integration, and strengthened adaptation finance mechanisms. Full article

The integration of renewable energy into power grids is imperative for reducing carbon emissions and mitigating reliance on depleting fossil fuels. In this paper, we develop symmetric and asymmetric evolutionary game-theoretic models to analyze how user–grid cooperation in peak shaving can be enhanced by incorporating whole-process democracy (deliberative governance) into decision-making. Our framework captures excess returns, cooperation-driven profits, energy pricing, participation costs, and benefit-sharing coefficients to identify equilibrium conditions under varied subsidy, cost, and market scenarios. Furthermore, this study integrates the theory, path, and mechanism of deliberative procedures under the perspective of whole-process democracy, exploring how inclusive and participatory decision-making processes can enhance cooperation in renewable energy systems. We simulate seven scenarios that systematically adjust subsidy rates, cost–benefit structures, dynamic pricing, and renewable-versus-conventional competitiveness, revealing that robust cooperation emerges only under well-aligned incentives, equitable profit sharing, and targeted financial policies. These scenarios systematically vary these key parameters to assess the robustness of cooperative equilibria under diverse economic and policy conditions. Our findings indicate that policy efficacy hinges on deliberative stakeholder engagement, fair profit allocation, and adaptive subsidy mechanisms. These results furnish actionable guidelines for regulators and grid operators to foster sustainable, low-carbon energy systems and inform future research on demand response and multi-source integration. Full article