Search Results (511)

This paper investigates the macro-financial consequences of recent monetary policy tightening cycles, focusing on the distinction between soft and hard landings. Using an OLS regression framework applied to U.S. and Euro Area data from 1994 to 2023, we analyze the response of equity and bond markets, inflation, and GDP growth to central bank interest rate hikes. The findings suggest that, in most past tightening episodes, central banks succeeded in engineering soft landings without severe disruptions to market conditions or economic growth. However, the current post-pandemic context may lead to a two-stage adjustment, as inflation persistence and geopolitical shocks alter standard transmission dynamics. The study contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the timing and intensity of rate hikes, offering historical insights and empirical evidence from capital market signals. Full article

This study examines the dynamic interplay between interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth in Southeast Asian economies from 2000 to 2023, employing the Panel ARDL framework with the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) model. The findings confirm a robust long-term relationship among the Deposit Interest Rate (DIR), Lending Interest Rate (LIR), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and GDP growth. Higher deposit rates consistently promote economic expansion by encouraging savings and investment, while lending rates support long-term growth but limit short-term activity due to higher borrowing costs. Inflation adversely affects long-term growth by reducing purchasing power but boosts short-term demand. Historical GDP trends highlight the region’s susceptibility to global shocks, such as the 2008–2010 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, with forecasts indicating a gradual recovery from 2021 to 2025. The study emphasizes the importance of balanced monetary policies to enhance growth and stability in Southeast Asia, providing practical insights for policymakers addressing global and regional economic challenges. Full article

Economic stability in emerging market economies is increasingly shaped by the interplay between global financial integration, domestic monetary dynamics, and asset price fluctuations. Yet, early detection of financial market disruptions remains a persistent challenge. This study constructs a Financial Stress Index (FSI) for Pakistan, utilizing monthly data from 2005 to 2024, to capture systemic stress in a globalized context. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the FSI consolidates diverse indicators, including banking sector fragility, exchange market pressure, stock market volatility, money market spread, external debt exposure, and trade finance conditions, into a single, interpretable measure of financial instability. The index is externally validated through comparisons with the U.S. STLFSI4, the Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index, the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index, and the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI). The results confirm that Pakistan’s FSI responds meaningfully to both global and domestic shocks. It successfully captures major stress episodes, including the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and politically driven local disruptions. A key understanding is the index’s ability to distinguish between sudden global contagion and gradually emerging domestic vulnerabilities. Empirical results show that banking sector risk, followed by trade finance constraints and exchange rate volatility, are the leading contributors to systemic stress. Granger causality analysis reveals that financial stress has a significant impact on macroeconomic performance, particularly in terms of GDP growth and trade flows. These findings emphasize the importance of monitoring sector-specific vulnerabilities in an open economy like Pakistan. The FSI offers strong potential as an early warning system to support policy design and strengthen economic resilience. Future modifications may include incorporating real-time market-based metrics indicators to better align the index with global stress patterns. Full article

As a strategic material second only to grain, cotton serves both as a vital agricultural commodity and a key industrial crop. With the increasing frequency of global shocks and the deepening financialization of commodity markets, price linkages among major international cotton futures markets have strengthened. Consequently, in addition to fundamental supply and demand factors, cross-border price transmission has become a significant determinant of cotton pricing. This study employs daily closing prices of China’s cotton futures, cotton yarn futures, and U.S. cotton futures from 1 September 2017 to 31 March 2025 to examine the spillover effects among these three futures markets using time series models. The results reveal that U.S. cotton futures have dominated the Chinese cotton-related futures markets even prior to the onset of trade tensions, with strong domestic market comovements. However, both the U.S.-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic significantly weakened price co-movements while intensifying volatility spillovers. Although these external shocks enhanced the relative independence of China’s cotton yarn futures and modestly increased China’s pricing influence, U.S. cotton futures have consistently maintained their central role in price discovery. Full article

This paper analyzes the volatility relationship between the Romanian BET index and the U.S. SFT-500 index during the period 2019–2024, with a particular focus on the impact of political and geopolitical shocks. The study investigates whether financial markets in emerging economies react symmetrically or asymmetrically to external shocks originating from mature markets, especially during periods of political uncertainty. The research period includes four major systemic events: the COVID-19 pandemic, the military conflict in Ukraine, the 2024 U.S. presidential elections, and the 2024 Romanian elections, all of which generated significant volatility in global markets. The methodological approach combines time series econometrics with the Impulse Indicator Saturation (IIS) technique to identify structural breaks and outliers, without imposing exogenous assumptions about the timing of events. The econometric model includes autoregressive and lagged exogenous variables to estimate the influence of the SFT-500 index on the BET index, while IIS variables capture unanticipated political and economic shocks. Additionally, a Fractionally Integrated GARCH (FIGARCH) specification is applied to model the persistence of volatility over time, capturing the long-memory behavior often observed in emerging markets like Romania. The results confirm a statistically significant but partial synchronization between the two markets, with lagged and contemporaneous effects from the SFT-500 index on the BET index. Volatility in Romania is markedly higher and longer-lasting during domestic political episodes, confirming that local factors are a primary source of market instability. For investors, this underscores the need to embed political risk metrics into emerging market portfolios. For policymakers, it highlights how stronger institutions and transparent governance can dampen election- and crisis-related turbulence. Full article

Understanding the coupling mechanism and coordinated development between digital transformation and operational efficiency in logistics enterprises is vital for optimizing resource allocation and promoting high-quality, sustainable growth in the logistics industry. This study analyzes panel data from 52 listed logistics enterprises in China from 2014 to 2023. It constructs evaluation index systems for digital transformation and operational efficiency and applies an integrated methodology comprising the super-efficiency SBM model, coupling coordination degree model, and random forest regression model to evaluate efficiency, assess coupling dynamics, and forecast future trends. The main findings are as follows: (1) Overall operational efficiency has shown a pattern of fluctuating growth, increasing from 0.520 to 0.585. Road transport consistently outperformed other sectors, water transport maintained steady growth, and air transport exhibited significant volatility, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. (2) The coupling coordination degree remains in the initial coordination stage (0.642–0.677), with road transport achieving intermediate-level coordination (0.718) by 2021. Water transport showed gradual but stable improvement, and air transport remained unstable due to external shocks. (3) Road transport leads in overall industry performance, while water transport exhibits stable progress, and air transport is hindered by international supply chain disruptions and technological adoption challenges. (4) Projections for 2024–2026 suggest an average annual growth rate of 0.31% in coupling coordination across all subsectors, although inter-sectoral synergistic mechanisms require further enhancement. Based on these findings, this study proposes targeted recommendations: increasing comprehensive investments in digital technologies across the entire supply chain, cultivating interdisciplinary talent, optimizing risk management frameworks, and refining policy support. These measures aim to strengthen the integration of digital transformation and operational efficiency, contributing to the sustainable development of the logistics industry. Full article

Streptococcus pyogenes (Group A Streptococcus, GAS) is a major human pathogen capable of causing infections ranging from mild pharyngitis and impetigo to severe invasive diseases such as bacteremia, necrotizing fasciitis, and streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS). Historically, the incidence of GAS infections declined during the early antibiotic era but began rising again from the early 2000s, driven partly by the emergence of hyper-virulent strains such as emm1 and emm12. From 2005 onward, significant increases in GAS infections were reported globally, accompanied by rising antibiotic resistance, particularly to macrolides and tetracyclines. During the COVID-19 pandemic, widespread public health measures led to a sharp decline in GAS infections, including invasive cases, but this trend reversed dramatically in late 2022 and 2023, with surges exceeding pre-pandemic levels, notably in children. Recent data implicate factors such as “immunity debt,” viral co-infections, and the spread of virulent clones like M1UK. Looking forward, continued surveillance of GAS epidemiology, virulence factors, and resistance patterns is critical. Moreover, the emergence of GAS isolates with reduced susceptibility to beta-lactams underscores the need for vigilance despite the absence of fully resistant strains. The development of an effective vaccine remains an urgent priority to reduce GAS disease burden and prevent severe outcomes. Future research should focus on vaccine development, molecular mechanisms of virulence, and strategies to curb antimicrobial resistance. Full article

The COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions to worldwide financial markets, which resulted in market instability and unpredictability. South Korean investors used sector-specific exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to handle the market challenges. This research examines the connection between COVID-19 statistics, including total confirmed cases and deaths, and Korean sector ETF market performance. The research uses the ARIMAX model to evaluate how external variables affect ETF price volatility. The research uses Granger causality tests to determine the direction of relationships between pandemic metrics and sectoral performance, while K-means clustering identifies patterns across different sectors. The analysis reveals significant statistical connections between pandemic disruptions and three sectors, including communication services, healthcare, and IT. The research shows that COVID-19 metrics strongly affected the performance of sector-specific ETFs throughout the analyzed time period. The research establishes a basis for additional studies about external shock effects on financial instruments and delivers valuable information to investors and policymakers who need to manage global crisis risks. Full article

This study assesses the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on catastrophic health expenditures and income inequality in Benin. A microsimulation was calibrated to estimate the impact of the pandemic under three different shock scenarios: low, moderate, and severe. The analysis relies on secondary data from household living condition surveys. The results indicate that the COVID-19 crisis would lead to a significant average income loss of up to 20% and income inequality, while the number of households with catastrophic health expenditures would increase by 4%. More importantly, the findings reveal heterogeneous impacts across households, with urban residents, younger individuals, more educated households, and male-headed households experiencing the greatest income decline. These findings underscore the need for targeted health coverage and employment policies to better protect vulnerable populations in Benin in the face of future shocks. Full article

This study aims to evaluate the sustainability performance of EU regions through a comprehensive and data-driven Environmental, Social, Governance (ESG) framework, addressing the increasing demand for regional-level analysis in sustainable finance and policy design. Leveraging Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and cluster analysis, we construct composite ESG indicators that adjust for economic size using GDP normalization and LOESS smoothing. Drawing on panel data from 2010 to 2023 and over 170 indicators, we model the determinants of ESG performance at both the national and regional levels across the EU-27. Time-based ESG trajectories are assessed using Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR), capturing resilience to shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical instability. Our findings reveal clear spatial disparities in ESG performance, highlighting the structural gaps in governance, environmental quality, and social cohesion. The model captures patterns of convergence and divergence across EU regions and identifies common drivers influencing sustainability outcomes. This paper introduces an integrated framework that combines PLS regression, clustering, and time-based trend analysis to assess ESG performance at the subnational level. The originality of this study lies in its multi-layered approach, offering a replicable and scalable model for evaluating sustainability with direct implications for green finance, policy prioritization, and regional development. This study contributes to the literature by applying advanced data-driven techniques to assess ESG dynamics in complex economic systems. Full article

Background and Objectives: During pandemics, emergency departments face the challenge of managing critically ill patients with limited resources. Point-of-Care Ultrasound (POCUS) has emerged as a crucial diagnostic tool in such scenarios. This study aimed to develop a standardized POCUS protocol using expert consensus via a modified Delphi survey to guide physicians in managing these patients more effectively. Materials and Methods: A committee of emergency imaging experts and board-certified emergency physicians identified essential elements of POCUS in the treatment of patients under investigation (PUI) with shock, sepsis, or other life-threatening diseases. A modified Delphi survey was conducted among 39 emergency imaging experts who were members of the Korean Society of Emergency Medicine. The survey included three rounds of expert feedback and revisions, leading to the development of a POCUS protocol for critically ill patients during a pandemic. Results: The developed POCUS protocol emphasizes the use of POCUS-echocardiography and POCUS-lung ultrasound for the evaluation of cardiac and respiratory function, respectively. The protocol also provides guidance on when to consider additional tests or imaging based on POCUS findings. The Delphi survey results indicated general consensus on the inclusion of POCUS-echocardiography and POCUS-lung ultrasound within the protocol, although there were some disagreements regarding specific elements. Conclusions: Effective clinical practice aids emergency physicians in determining appropriate POCUS strategies for differential diagnosis between life-threatening diseases. Future studies should investigate the effectiveness and feasibility of the protocol in actual clinical scenarios, including its impact on patient outcomes, resource utilization, and workflow efficiency in emergency departments. Full article

This paper investigates the impact of the transition from manufacturing to tourism on sectoral productivity, output prices, and labor costs. Using panel data econometric models for 15 selected EU countries from 2011 to 2023, the study confirms key dynamics predicted by Baumol’s cost disease (BCD) hypothesis. The findings reveal that higher productivity is positively associated with both implied prices and hourly labor costs across sectors, supporting the wage equalization mechanism central to BCD. However, the relationship between productivity and wages or prices is weaker in labor-intensive sectors like tourism, underscoring their structural vulnerability to wage-driven cost pressures. Additionally, the analysis captures the impact of major external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo–Ukrainian war, treated as jointly sourced super-shocks. The regression results indicate significant price disruptions following these shocks, whereas no statistically significant trend in labor costs was detected in the post-treatment period. These results highlight the differential effects of external shocks on wages versus prices, emphasizing the challenges faced by low-productivity, labor-intensive sectors in managing cost dynamics. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers addressing sectoral imbalances in the context of BCD and navigating the economic consequences of global disruptions. Full article

Prior research often portrays Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) as a coercive institutional force compelling firms to passively conform for legitimacy. More recent studies, however, suggest firms actively pursue CSR to gain sustainable competitive advantages. Yet, how and when CSR buffers firms against adverse shocks of crises remains insufficiently understood. This study addresses this gap by using multiple regression analysis to examine the buffering effects of CSR investments during the COVID-19 crisis, which severely disrupted capital markets and firm valuation. Drawing on signaling theory and CSR literature, we analyze the stock market performance of China’s A-share listed firms using a sample of 2577 observations as of the end of 2019. Results indicate that firms with higher CSR investments experienced significantly greater cumulative abnormal returns during the pandemic. Moreover, the buffering effect is amplified among firms with higher debt burdens, greater financing constraints, and those operating in regions with stronger social trust and more severe COVID-19 impact. These findings are robust across multiple robustness checks. This study highlights the strategic value of CSR as a resilience mechanism during crises and supports a more proactive view of CSR engagement for sustainable development, complementing the traditional legitimacy-focused perspective in existing literature. Full article

The contagious COVID-19 disease not only brought about a global health crisis but also a disruption in the global economy. The uncertainty levels regarding the impact of the disease increased volatility. This study analyses stock market volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) of South Africa (SA) with that of the United States of America (USA) and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aims to analyse volatility spillovers from a developed market (USA) to emerging markets (BRIC countries) and also to examine the causality between EPU and stock returns during the COVID-19 pandemic. By employing the GARCH-in-Mean model from a sample of daily returns of national equity market indices from 1 January 2020 to 31 March 2022, SA and China are shown to be the most volatile during the pandemic. By using the diagonal Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (BEKK) model to analyse spillover effects, evidence of spillover effects from the US to the emerging countries is small but statistically significant, with SA showing the strongest impact from US market shocks. From the Granger causality test, Brazil’s and India’s equity markets are shown to be highly sensitive to changes in EPU relative to the other countries. Full article

Background: Myocarditis is associated with increased mortality due to complications such as cardiogenic shock and arrhythmia. Trends of myocarditis-related mortality in the United States, along with demographic and regional disparities and changes during the COVID-19 pandemic, are unknown. Methods: We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database to extract data for myocarditis deaths from 1999 to 2023. The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to analyze long-term trends in mortality, and R Studio (version 4.4.1) was used to calculate expected and excess mortality for 2020 to 2023. Results: There were 33,016 myocarditis-related deaths from 1999 to 2023. The age-adjusted mortality rate (AAMR) of myocarditis deaths decreased by 46.08% from 7.40 (95% CI: 7.04–7.76) in 1999 to 3.99 (95% CI: 3.74–4.23) in 2019, with an APC of −2.59 (95% CI: −2.97 to −2.24). From 2019 to 2021, the AAMR increased by 46.62% to 5.85 (95% CI: 5.56–6.14) by 2021 (2019–2021 APC 22.3%*), reversing the gains of the previous two decades. By 2023, the AAMR recovered to 4.33 (95% CI: 4.09 to 4.58), though mortality was still higher than expected from pre-pandemic trends. From 2020 to 2023, there were 40.12% more deaths than expected, with 54.94% higher mortality in 2021. Briefly, 70.33% of excess myocarditis-related deaths also had COVID-19, with a peak of 76.15% of excess myocarditis deaths in 2021 being reported as involving COVID-19 infection. Significant disparities in mortality trends persisted, with males, NH Black or African Americans, and the elderly having higher mortality rates. Conclusions: Myocarditis mortality decreased in the United States from 1999 to 2019 but significantly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic years 2020 and 2021. At the height of the pandemic, COVID-19 infection contributed to almost three-quarters of excess myocarditis mortality. Significant disparities in myocarditis mortality persisted from 1999 to 2023. Full article