Search Results (4,175)

Upon reaching stabilized production in waterflooded reservoirs, waterflood performance curves are conventionally used to predict technically recoverable reserves (TRRs). However, as reservoirs enter high water-cut stages, the relationship between the relative permeability ratio and saturation becomes nonlinear, causing deflection in waterflood performance curves. This leads to systematic overestimation of both predicted TRR and ultimate recovery factors. To overcome these limitations in conventional TRR prediction methods, this study establishes a novel relative permeability ratio-saturation relationship based on characteristic relative permeability curve behaviors. The proposed model is validated for three distinct fluid-rock interaction types. We further develop a permeability-driven forecasting model for oil production rates and water cuts. Comparative analyses with a conventional waterflood curve methodology demonstrate significant accuracy improvements. The results show that while traditional methods predict TRR ranging from 78.40 to 92.29 million tons, our model yields 70.73 million tons—effectively resolving overestimation issues caused by curve deflection during high water-cut phases. This approach establishes a robust framework for determining critical development parameters, including economic field lifespan, strategy adjustments, and ultimate recovery factor. Full article

Recovering oil by fracturing fluid imbibition has demonstrated significant potential for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in tight oil reservoirs. White mineral oil (WMO), kerosene, or saturated alkanes with matched apparent viscosity have been widely used as “crude oil” to investigate imbibition mechanisms in light shale oil or tight oil. However, the representativeness of these simulated oils for low-maturity crude oils with higher viscosity and greater content of resins and asphaltenes requires further research. In this study, imbibition experiments were conducted and T₂ and T₁–T₂ nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectra were adopted to investigate the oil recovery characteristics among resin–asphaltene-rich Jimusar shale oil and two WMOs. The overall imbibition recovery rates, pore scale recovery characteristics, mobility variations among oils with different occurrence states, as well as key factors influencing imbibition efficiency were analyzed. The results show the following: (1) WMO, kerosene, or alkanes with matched apparent viscosity may not comprehensively replicate the imbibition behavior of resin–asphaltene-rich crude oils. These simplified systems fail to capture the pore-scale occurrence characteristics of resins/asphaltenes, their influence on pore wettability alteration, and may consequently overestimate the intrinsic imbibition displacement efficiency in reservoir formations. (2) Surfactant optimization must holistically address the intrinsic coupling between interfacial tension reduction, wettability modification, and pore-scale crude oil mobilization mechanisms. The alteration of overall wettability exhibits higher priority over interfacial tension in governing displacement dynamics. (3) Imbibition displacement exhibits selective mobilization characteristics for oil phases in pores. Specifically, when the oil phase contains complex hydrocarbon components, lighter fractions in larger pores are preferentially mobilized; when the oil composition is homogeneous, oil in smaller pores is mobilized first. Full article

Rapid urbanization and demographic shifts present significant challenges to spatial justice in green space provision. Traditional static assessments have become increasingly inadequate for guiding park planning, which now requires a dynamic, future-oriented analytical approach. To address this gap, this study incorporates population dynamics into urban park planning by developing a dynamic evaluation framework for park accessibility. Building on the Gaussian-based two-step floating catchment area (Ga2SFCA) method, we propose the human-population-projection-Ga2SFCA (HPP-Ga2SFCA) model, which integrates population forecasts to assess park service efficiency under future demographic pressures. Using neighborhood-committee-level census data from 2000 to 2020 and detailed park spatial data, we identified five types of population change and forecast demographic distributions for both short- and long-term scenarios. Our findings indicate population decline in the urban core and outer suburbs, with growth concentrated in the transitional inner-suburban zones. Long-term projections suggest that 66% of communities will experience population growth, whereas short-term forecasts indicate a decline in 52%. Static models overestimate park accessibility by approximately 40%. In contrast, our dynamic model reveals that accessibility is overestimated in 71% and underestimated in 7% of the city, highlighting a potential mismatch between future population demand and current park supply. This study offers a forward-looking planning framework that enhances the responsiveness of park systems to demographic change and supports the development of more equitable, adaptive green space strategies. Full article

The importance of non-performing loans (NPLs) for the stability of financial sectors is difficult to overestimate. The NPL level depends on numerous factors; this study’s goal is to determine the impact of macroeconomic factors on NPLs with the mediation effect of foreign, saving and social factors in Kazakhstan’s banking sector. To determine the affecting factors, the authors performed a systematic literature review. To determine the dependencies between constructs, the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) method was used. Macroeconomic factors’ direct effect on non-performing loans (NPLs) was examined; a significant negative dependence was determined. The mediation effect of foreign, saving, and social factors was investigated. Foreign factors have a mediation effect, strengthening the dependence between macro factors and NPLs. Nevertheless, they do not have a mediating effect; moreover, they balance and make the effect of macro factors on NPLs statistically insignificant. These findings allow policy-makers to stabilize the situation on NPLs in the financial markets of developing countries like Kazakhstan by directly influencing not only the financial sector but also other sectors of the national economy. Full article

Background/Objectives: Physical activity is a cornerstone of diabetes mellitus (DM) management and is strongly recommended in the American Diabetes Association (ADA)’s guidelines. This study aims to investigate the self-reported physical activity levels of individuals with DM in Germany, as well as the barriers and facilitators they encounter. Methods: Individuals with type 1 DM (T1DM) and type 2 DM (T2DM) were asked to fill out an online questionnaire that was partly based on the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ). Results: The questionnaire was completed by 338 persons with either T1DM (57.1%) or T2DM (42.9%) (females: 56.2%, males: 42.0%, gender diverse persons: 1.8%) of all age groups (at least 18 years). In total, 80.5% of respondents were aware of the current physical activity recommendations. Among the respondents, 58% reported meeting the recommendations for endurance-type physical activity, while only 30.5% reported meeting those for strength training. The three most frequently cited barriers to physical activity were lack of time, lack of motivation and current state of health. Supporting factors included coverage of costs, availability of exercise programs in close proximity to the patient’s home and target group specific exercise programs. Conclusions: The results imply that many individuals with DM in Germany do not meet ADA’s physical activity recommendations, especially considering that self-reports often overestimate actual behavior. In particular, the actual number of individuals who regularly engage in strength training may be too low. There is a clear need to better communicate the benefits of different forms of physical training and to provide physical activity programs aligned with patients’ individual needs. Full article

The Complementary Relationship (CR) principle of evapotranspiration provides an efficient approach for estimating actual evapotranspiration (ET_a), owing to its simplified computation and effectiveness in utilizing meteorological factors. Accurate estimation of actual evapotranspiration (ET_a) is crucial for understanding surface energy and water cycles, especially in permafrost regions. This study aims to evaluate the applicability of two Complementary Relationship (CR)-based methods—Bouchet’s in 1963 and Brutsaert’s in 2015—for estimating ETa on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), using observations from Eddy Covariance (EC) systems. The potential evapotranspiration (ET_p) was calculated using the Penman equation with two wind functions: the Rome wind function and the Monin–Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST). The comparison revealed that Bouchet’s method underestimated ET_a during frozen soil periods and overestimated it during thawed periods. In contrast, Brutsaert’s method combined with the MOST yielded the lowest RMSE values (0.67–0.70 mm/day) and the highest correlation coefficients (r > 0.85), indicating superior performance. Sensitivity analysis showed that net radiation (Rn) had the strongest influence on ET_a, with a daily sensitivity coefficient of up to 1.35. This study highlights the improved accuracy and reliability of Brutsaert’s CR method in cold alpine environments, underscoring the importance of considering freeze–thaw dynamics in ET modeling. Future research should incorporate seasonal calibration of key parameters (e.g., ε) to further reduce uncertainty. Full article

Vitamin D is the only vitamin that is conditionally essential, as it is synthesized from precursors after UV light exposure, whilst also being obtained from the diet. It has numerous health benefits, with deficiency becoming a major concern globally, such that dietary supplementation has more recently achieved vital importance to maintain satisfactory levels. In recent years, measurements made from blood have, therefore, become critical to determine the status of vitamin D levels in individuals and the larger population. Tests for vitamin D have routinely relied on laboratory analysis with sophisticated equipment, often being slow and costly, whilst rapid immunoassays have suffered from poor specificity and sensitivity. Here, we have evaluated a new rapid immunoassay test on the market (Rapi-D & IgLoo) to quickly and accurately measure vitamin D levels in small capillary blood specimens and compared this to measurements made using the standard laboratory method of liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry. Our results show that vitamin D can be measured very quickly and over a broad range using the new method, as well as correlate relatively well with standard laboratory testing; however, it cannot be fully relied upon currently to accurately diagnose deficiency or sufficiency in individuals. Our statistical and comparative analyses find that the rapid immunoassay with digital quantification significantly overestimates vitamin D levels, leading to diminished diagnosis of vitamin D deficiency. The speed and simplicity of the rapid method will likely provide advantages in various healthcare settings; however, further calibration of this rapid method and testing parameters for improving quantification of vitamin D from capillary blood specimens is required before integration of it into clinical decision-making pathways. Full article

Orthognathic surgery (OS) is a complex procedure commonly used to treat dentofacial deformities (DFDs). These conditions, related to jaw position or size and often involving malocclusion, affect approximately 15% of the population. Due to the complexity of OS, accurate planning is essential. Digital assessment using computer-aided design (CAD) and computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) tools enhances surgical predictability. However, limitations in soft tissue simulation often require surgeon input to optimize aesthetic results and minimize surgical impact. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of virtual surgery planning (VSP) by analyzing the relationship between planning deviations and surgical satisfaction. A single-center, retrospective study was conducted on 16 patients who underwent OS at San Pedro University Hospital of La Rioja. VSP was based on CT scans using Dolphin Imaging software (v12.0, Patterson Dental, St. Paul, MN, USA) and surgeries were guided by VSP-designed occlusal splints. Outcomes were assessed using the Orthognathic Quality of Life (OQOL) questionnaire and deviations were measured through pre- and postoperative imaging. The results showed high satisfaction scores and good overall outcomes, despite moderate deviations from the virtual plan in many cases, particularly among Class II patients. A total of 63% of patients required VSP modifications due to poor soft tissue fitting, with 72% of these being Class II DFDs. Most deviations involved less maxillary advancement than planned, while maintaining optimal occlusion. This suggests that VSP may overestimate advancement needs, especially in Class II cases. No significant differences in satisfaction were observed between patients with low (<2 mm) and high (>2 mm) deviations. These findings support the use of VSP as a valuable planning tool for OS. However, surgeon experience remains essential, especially in managing soft tissue behavior. Improvements in soft tissue prediction are needed to enhance accuracy, particularly for Class II DFDs. Full article

Background: Despite the growing demand for amyloid PET quantification, practical challenges remain. As automated software platforms are increasingly adopted to address these limitations, we evaluated the reliability of commercial tools for Centiloid quantification against the original Centiloid Project method. Methods: This retrospective study included 332 amyloid PET scans (165 [¹⁸F]Florbetaben; 167 [¹⁸F]Flutemetamol) performed for suspected mild cognitive impairments or dementia, paired with T1-weighted MRI within one year. Centiloid values were calculated using three automated software platforms, BTXBrain, MIMneuro, and SCALE PET, and compared with the original Centiloid method. The agreement was assessed using Pearson’s correlation coefficient, the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), a Passing–Bablok regression, and Bland–Altman plots. The concordance with the visual interpretation was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results: BTXBrain (R = 0.993; ICC = 0.986) and SCALE PET (R = 0.992; ICC = 0.991) demonstrated an excellent correlation with the reference, while MIMneuro showed a slightly lower agreement (R = 0.974; ICC = 0.966). BTXBrain exhibited a proportional underestimation (slope = 0.872 [0.860–0.885]), MIMneuro showed a significant overestimation (slope = 1.053 [1.026–1.081]), and SCALE PET demonstrated a minimal bias (slope = 1.014 [0.999–1.029]). The bias pattern was particularly noted for FMM. All platforms maintained their trends for correlations and biases when focusing on subthreshold-to-low-positive ranges (0–50 Centiloid units). However, all platforms showed an excellent agreement with the visual interpretation (areas under ROC curves > 0.996 for all). Conclusions: Three automated platforms demonstrated an acceptable reliability for Centiloid quantification, although software-specific biases were observed. These differences did not impair their feasibility in aiding the image interpretation, as supported by the concordance with visual readings. Nevertheless, users should recognize the platform-specific characteristics when applying diagnostic thresholds or interpreting longitudinal changes. Full article

This article presents a probabilistic methodology for assessing corrosion initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride ingress. The approach addresses key limitations of conventional analytical models by accounting for non-diffusive barriers and incorporating a rigorous statistical treatment of censored data to mitigate biases introduced by limited simulation durations. A combination of analytical solutions for diffusion from opposite sides with time-dependent boundary conditions is also proposed and validated. The probabilistic study includes the depassivation assessment of a hollow pier section. The blocking effect caused by rebars is statistically characterised through correction factors derived from finite element simulations. These factors are used to adjust analytical solutions, which are computationally inexpensive. Results show that neglecting the rebar blocking effect can overestimate the mean corrosion initiation time by up to 42%, while the use of censored data reduces bias in lifetime estimates. The observed frequency of censored events reached up to 20% when simulations were truncated at 100 years. The corrected analytical models closely match the finite element results, statistically validating their application. The case study indicates premature corrosion initiation (less than 10 years to achieve target reliability), underscoring the need to better reconcile the desired levels of reliability with realistic input parameters for depassivation. Full article

(1) Background: A decrease in corneal hydration during refractive surgery is observed clinically as well as in laboratory settings, but the associated consequences are not yet fully understood. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the gain of ablation efficiency due to hydration changes during cornea refractive surgery. (2) Methods: We developed a simulation model to evaluate the influence of hydration changes on the ablation algorithms used in laser refractive surgery. The model simulates different physical effects of an entire surgical process, simulating the shot-by-shot ablation process based on a modeled beam profile. The model considers corneal hydration, as well as environmental humidity, along with the laser beam characteristics and ablative spot properties for evaluating any hydration changes and their effect on laser refractive surgery. (3) Results: Using pulse lists collected from actual treatments, we simulated the gain of efficiency during the ablation process. Ablation efficiency is increased due to dehydration effects during laser treatments. Longer treatments suffer larger dehydration effects and are more prone to overcorrections due to gain of efficiency than shorter treatments. (4) Conclusions: The improper use of a model that overestimates or underestimates the effects derived from the hydration dynamics during treatment may result in suboptimal refractive corrections. This model may contribute to improving emmetropization and the correction of ocular aberrations with improved laser parameters that can compensate for the changes in ablation efficiency due to hydration changes in the cornea. Full article

Silos are strategic structures widespread in the industrial sectors for post-harvest preservation purposes. Current standards on the seismic design of silos are understandably based on approximate and simplified assumptions, leading intentionally to conservative design-oriented formulae. However, unjustified over-estimation might lead to unnecessary economic losses. As part of the authors’ analytical and experimental ongoing research on the complex seismic behavior of filled silo systems, in this short paper, an in-depth reading of the theoretical framework originally proposed during the 1970s and 1980s is provided to present a better understanding of the unexplained design-oriented formula of the seismic additional pressure in the European standard. A conceptual incongruence in the Eurocode EN1998-4:2006 is pointed out and discussed regarding the dynamic overpressure formula in the case of ground-supported flat-bottom circular silos subjected to seismic excitation. Specifically, a potential miscounting of the geometrical aspect in circular silos, with respect to rectangular ones, leads to an inconsistent amplification of the additional pressures in the range 1.65–2, depending on the filling aspect ratio of the silo. This inconsistency provides the reason for several unexplained results recently published in the scientific literature. A proposal for a physically based correction, retaining the current assumptions made by the EN1998-4, is finally given. Full article

This study presents the results of axial tension (uplift) and compression tests evaluating the capacity of helical piles installed in Shahriyar dense sand using the UTM apparatus. Thirteen pile load experiments involving single-, double-, or triple-helix piles with shaft diameters of 13 mm were performed, including six compression tests and seven tension tests with different pitches (D_h =13, 20, and 25 mm). The tested helical piles with a helix diameter of 51 mm were considered, and the interhelix spacing approximately ranged between two and four times the helix diameter. Through laboratory testing techniques, the Shahriyar dense sand properties were identified. Alongside theoretical analyses of helical piles, the tensile and compressive pile load tests outcomes in dense sand with a relative density of 70% are presented. It was found that the maximum capacities of the compressive and tensile helical piles were up to six and eleven times that of the shaft capacity, respectively. With an increasing number of helices, the settlement reduced, and the bearing capacity increased. Consequently, helical piles can be manufactured in smaller sizes compared to steel piles. Overall, the compressive capacities of helical piles were higher than the tensile capacities under similar conditions. Single-helices piles with a pitch of 20 mm and double-helices piles with a pitch of 13 mm were more effective than others. Therefore, placing helices at the shallower depths and using smaller pitches result in better performance. In this study, when compared to values from the L1–L2 method, the theoretical method slightly underestimates the ultimate compression capacity and both overestimates and underestimates the uplift capacity for single- and double-helical piles, respectively, due to the individual bearing mode and cylindrical shear mode. Full article

Assessing wood moisture and density is essential to understanding ecological processes such as tree growth and wood formation. This study compared basic density and moisture content estimates for three Catalpa species (Catalpa ovata G. Don, Catalpa bungei C. A. Mey, and Catalpa fargesii Bureau) using three sampling methods (incremental cores, wood chips, and standard wood blocks). While strong correlations (r² ≥ 0.99) were observed among all methods, the incremental core approach exhibited significant species-specific biases—overestimating density by 27.31–12.31% on average while underestimating moisture content by 5.61–30.51%. Despite its cost-effectiveness and minimal sample collection requirements, the method’s systematic deviations limit its applicability to multiple tree species. Consequently, we recommend developing species-specific linear calibration models that incorporate baseline data from standard wood block measurements to substantially improve estimation accuracy. This approach offers a practical, theory-supported solution for optimizing field sampling strategies in ecological research. Full article

Background/Objectives: The number needed to vaccinate (NNV) is a metric commonly used to evaluate the public health impact of a vaccine as it represents the number of individuals that must be vaccinated to prevent one case of disease. Traditional calculations may underestimate vaccine benefits by neglecting indirect effects and duration of protection (DOP), resulting in NNV overestimation. This study evaluated the NNV for the pediatric 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate (PCV20) US immunization program, as compared to PCV13, with a unique approach to NNV. Methods: A multi-cohort, population-based Markov model accounting for indirect effects was employed to calculate the NNV of PCV20 to avert a case of pneumococcal disease, invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), hospitalized non-bacteremic pneumonia (NBP), ambulatory NBP, and otitis media (OM), as well as to prevent antibiotic-resistant cases and antibiotic prescriptions. Results: The mean NNV over a 25-year time horizon to prevent one case of pneumococcal disease was 6, with NNVs of 854 for IPD, 106 for hospitalized NBP, 25 for outpatient NBP, and 9 for OM, 11 for a course of antibiotic, and 4 for resistant disease. The mean NNV per year decreased over time, reflecting the DOP and increasing indirect effects over time. Conclusions: This study presents a novel approach to NNVs and shows that relatively few vaccinations are required to prevent disease. The decrease in NNV over time highlights the necessity of including DOP and indirect effects in NNV calculations, ensuring a more realistic assessment of a vaccine’s impact. Full article