Search Results (2,364)

In this paper, a new hybrid prediction method is proposed for estimating remaining useful life, emissions, and performance parameters using experimental data obtained from a micro-turbojet engine. Experiments were conducted under various rotational speed conditions, yielding a total of 342 measurement points. Turbine speed, exhaust gas temperature, fuel flow rate, and thrust were considered as input variables in the study. Thermal efficiency, total power, CO₂, and NO₂ were considered as output variables. The experimental findings showed that thermal efficiency varied between 0.49% and 7.1%, total power between 0.266 and 13.94 kW, and CO₂ emissions by volume between 0.317% and 2.183%. The proposed RL-MH-LR-CBR approach combines the advantages of multiple methods. In this method, the interpretable formulation of linear regression serves as the foundation. Additionally, in the adaptive meta-heuristic optimization process, a hyper-heuristic selection mechanism based on the UCB1-based multi-arm bandit approach is used to select the optimal algorithm from among the meta-heuristic methods. Finally, the CatBoost-based residual error learning component aims to capture non-linear patterns that cannot be explained by the linear model. The method was compared with 14 different methods on both the NASA C-MAPSS FD001 dataset and real engine data. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework exhibits more balanced, stable, and higher generalization capabilities compared to classical regression models and powerful AI methods, particularly in non-linear, noisy, and heterogeneous outputs. In the real engine dataset, the proposed method produced R² values of 0.968 for CO₂ and 0.936 for NO₂, while the predictive performance was even stronger for thermal efficiency and total power, with corresponding R² values of 0.998 and 0.995, respectively. Additionally, the method demonstrated a clear advantage in hard-to-model outputs by reducing the error level to 0.061 in NO₂ predictions. These findings demonstrate that the proposed approach is not limited to micro-turbojet-engines. The developed method provides a robust decision support framework that is applicable, scalable, and generalizable to predictive maintenance, emissions monitoring, energy systems, aviation analytics, and other highly dynamic engineering problems. Full article

Background: Emergency department evaluation of suspected urolithiasis increasingly relies on non-contrast CT, yet not all patients require imaging. Existing clinical prediction rules help stratify stone probability, but by converting continuous measurements into fixed binary indicators, they offer little insight into why a particular patient is at risk or how much uncertainty remains after each testing stage—questions that bear directly on individualized diagnostic decisions. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 1000 ED patients with suspected urolithiasis who underwent non-contrast CT (stone prevalence 85.0%). A gradient boosting classifier was trained on 17 continuous clinical and laboratory features and compared against binary-thresholded counterparts and an established scoring system; the 17-feature model achieved AUC 0.771 (95% CI 0.726–0.813) versus 0.723 (95% CI 0.675–0.771) for the reference score on this cohort (DeLong p = 0.001). Individual predictions were explained using an interventional Shapley value approach, and a Shannon entropy-based framework was applied to quantify the marginal diagnostic contribution of each sequential testing stage. Results: Held-out permutation importance identified red blood cell count on microscopy, age, pain duration, and prior stone history as the most influential predictors. Several features showed non-linear contributions that diverged from conventional binary thresholds: creatinine effect crossed zero near 0.90 mg/dL and pain duration peaked between 2 and 5 h. C-reactive protein, absent from existing scoring systems, emerged as a meaningful negative predictor. Sequential entropy analysis showed that dipstick urinalysis provided the largest marginal information gain among non-history stages (6.1% of prior entropy), while physical examination contributed 2.3%. A prevalence sensitivity analysis projected that the framework’s threshold behavior would differ substantially in lower-prevalence populations, underscoring that the cohort-specific cut-points are not portable decision rules. We therefore position the framework as a reasoning aid that complements clinical judgment and imaging, not as a stand-alone triage tool. Conclusions: Explainable machine learning can address questions that aggregate discrimination metrics cannot: which features drive risk for a given patient, how those effects behave across the continuous measurement range, and how much diagnostic uncertainty each testing stage resolves. The Shapley-based explanations and entropy framework developed here offer a structured approach to individualized diagnostic reasoning in the ED evaluation of suspected urolithiasis, functioning as an interpretive adjunct to, rather than a replacement for, existing clinical tools and CT imaging. Full article

Accurate simulation of karst spring discharge is critical for sustainable water resource management, yet it remains a significant challenge due to the inherent complexity, heterogeneity, and non-linearity of karst systems. While machine learning models have been increasingly applied to this problem, standalone algorithms often struggle to simultaneously capture complex temporal dependencies and maintain robust generalization. This study provides a comprehensive comparative assessment of five state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) models for forecasting the daily discharge of the Jósva Spring, located in the World Heritage Aggtelek karst area. The main goal of the study is to determine which modern machine learning approach can most accurately forecast the daily discharge of the Jósva Spring using meteorological data and the discharge of a hydraulically connected upstream spring. This is motivated by the need for a reliable operational prediction tool for complex karst aquifers, the improved water-resource management in a climate-sensitive region, and a lack of comparative studies evaluating multiple ML paradigms on the same karst system. The study also aimed at comparing the predictive performance of five state-of-the-art ML models to identify the most accurate and robust model and to understand the predictability of the karst system by analyzing feature importance, lag effects, and temporal dependencies. Three tree-based ensemble models (Random Forest, XGBoost, and Extra Trees) and two deep learning architectures (a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network, BiLSTM, and a novel Hybrid XGBoost–BiLSTM model) were trained using a five-year (2015–2019) daily dataset comprising rainfall, temperature, and upstream discharge. The modeling framework was designed for synchronous simulation (lead time = 0 days), estimating concurrent downstream discharge using upstream and meteorological measurements from the same time step. A rigorous feature-engineering workflow was implemented based on statistical characterization, correlation analysis, and time-series diagnostics. Models were trained on 80% of the dataset and evaluated on an independent 20% test set. The results demonstrate that the proposed Hybrid XGBoost-BiLSTM model achieved the highest predictive accuracy on the unseen test data (R² = 0.74, NSE = 0.74, RMSE = 716.35 L/min). While the standalone tree-based models, particularly XGBoost (R² = 0.66), also exhibited strong and competitive performance, the hybrid architecture provided a consistent and measurable improvement across all evaluation metrics. The hybrid model’s success is attributed to its synergistic design, which leverages the powerful feature extraction and refinement capabilities of XGBoost to provide a more informative input space for the BiLSTM, thereby enhancing its ability to capture complex temporal dependencies while mitigating overfitting. Feature importance analysis confirmed that upstream discharge at a 3-day lag was the most critical predictor, highlighting the system’s hydraulic connectivity. This research provides clear, evidence-based guidance showing that hybrid machine learning architectures, which integrate the strengths of different modeling paradigms, represent the most effective approach for developing robust and reliable operational prediction tools for complex karst aquifers. Full article

This paper introduces the Quantum-Inspired Impulsive Continuous Hopfield Network (Q-ICHN), a novel hybrid control framework designed to handle non-smooth, high-energy perturbations in nonlinear dynamical systems. Standard Continuous Hopfield Networks (CHNs) rely on sigmoidal activation functions that are prone to gradient saturation, which leads to an insufficient corrective response when the system undergoes large deviations from equilibrium. To overcome this shortcoming, the proposed Q-ICHN adopts a wave-packet-based activation function grounded in the stationary Schrödinger equation, yielding a non-monotonic and oscillatory activation profile that sustains effective compensatory dynamics across a broad range of states. Furthermore, the proposed framework incorporates Madelung’s quantum potential into the control architecture, thereby enabling a fundamental reshaping of the system’s energy landscape. Specifically, this induces a tunneling-like mechanism that allows the system to circumvent local minima and rapidly recover from impulsive disturbances, manifested as a sharpened attractor structure in the phase-space domain. Together, these properties yield enhanced convergence behavior and improved robustness over traditional neural control approaches. To rigorously assess its merits, the performance of the Q-ICHN is evaluated through a large-scale benchmark involving 20 established control methods, including Sliding Mode Control (SMC), Model Predictive Control (MPC), and Backstepping. The experimental results obtained across 20 heterogeneous scenarios demonstrate that the proposed model achieves a 48% reduction in Mean Squared Error (MSE) relative to the classical ICHN. In addition, the Q-ICHN exhibits improved smoothness, reflected in a 30% reduction in jerk with respect to high-gain robust controllers, and enhanced reliability, validated by superior spectral purity and a 34% reduction in integrated variance under stochastic perturbations. Collectively, these results underscore the potential of quantum-inspired activation mechanisms to favorably balance control responsiveness and harmonic stability, providing a robust framework for handling both continuous dynamics and impulsive effects. Full article

Predicting the maneuverability of ships equipped with twin azimuth thrusters remains challenging due to their complex hydrodynamic interactions. This study develops an integrated framework that combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) with an enhanced Manoeuvring Mathematical Group (MMG) Model. Using the platform supply vessel Hai Yang Shi You 661 as a case study, all requisite hydrodynamic derivatives and propeller coefficients were efficiently obtained through CFD-based captive model tests, including oblique towing and Planar Motion Mechanism tests, conducted in STAR-CCM+ 2206. A core contribution of this work is the systematic evaluation of how hydrodynamic model fidelity affects prediction accuracy. Numerical turning circle simulations were executed with three models of increasing complexity: one with only linear derivatives, a second incorporating nonlinear higher-order terms, and a third, full model that additionally includes nonlinear velocity coupling terms. The results, rigorously validated against full-scale trial data, demonstrate that while the basic CFD-MMG approach is feasible, the inclusion of nonlinear coupling terms is critical for achieving accurate predictions in large-amplitude maneuvers. This enhancement reduced the maximum error in tactical diameter prediction from over 25% to approximately 11.8%. Consequently, this study provides a validated and cost-effective framework for maneuvering the prediction of azimuth-thruster vessels and offers clear, quantitative guidance on the necessary level of model complexity for practical engineering applications. Full article

This study proposes a robust data-driven control framework, LSTM-MPC, designed to enhance the velocity stabilization of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) operating under stochastic marine disturbances. Traditional control methods often struggle with the highly nonlinear and time-varying hydrodynamics of irregular waves. To address this, we employ a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network to capture complex temporal dependencies and provide accurate multi-step-ahead velocity predictions. These predictions are integrated into a Model Predictive Control (MPC) scheme, which optimizes control actions while respecting actuator constraints. A key contribution is the integration of an error-triggered online learning mechanism. Utilizing run-time weight synchronization via MATLAB Coder, the framework dynamically adapts to plant mismatches and high-frequency MEMS noise without an explicit analytical model. The architecture was validated using experimental data from a Pixhawk/ArduSub baseline. Results demonstrate that, under these stochastic conditions, the data-driven approach significantly outperforms the standard PID-based baseline. While adaptive PID variants offer improvements, the suggested framework drastically reduces tracking errors in rotational axes while maintaining high precision in translational velocities. This research confirms that adaptive, data-driven strategies can effectively bridge the gap between simulation and real-world deployment, offering a scalable solution for robust AUV autonomy in unpredictable environments. Full article

The prediction of the compressive strength (CS) for sustainable concrete reinforced with graphene nanoplatelets (GNPs) is difficult as a result of nonlinear interactions between chemical composition, dispersion state, and curing conditions. To address this, an interpretable ensemble machine learning framework is developed to provide accurate predictions of CS. The major input parameters used are sand content, graphene diameters, graphene thicknesses, and percentages of GNP to sand (GNP%; w/w), water-to-cement ratio W/C, ultrasonication period UST time (s), curing age CA day(s), while the CS (in MPa) is the target output. The random forest (RF) and XGBoost (XGB) models are incorporated into two novel metaheuristic optimization techniques, the Drawer-based optimization algorithm (DOA) and the Giant Trevally Optimizer (GTO), to enhance hyperparameter tuning and generalization. For all models, DOA XGB hybrids are the most predictive, with testing R² values up to 0.98; RMSE of around 2.9 MPa; MAE is approximately 2.0 MPa, and well over 97% within ±20% prediction error boundaries. The explainable artificial intelligence methodologies like Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), partial dependence plots, and Individual Conditional Expectation plots reveal curing age and graphene thickness as the dominant parameters. High strengths above 70 MPa are always achieved from higher curing age, w/c ratio (from 0.3 to 0.4), and graphene dosage (from 0.5 to 2.5%). A Python GUI is developed for efficient and accurate strength predictions suitable for practical applications. The proposed approach provides a robust, interpretable, and efficient alternative to extensive testing for GNP-reinforced concrete. Full article

Accurate prediction of energy consumption is essential for the operation and charging management of battery-electric buses. Existing prediction studies are often constrained by incomplete or low-resolution input data, limiting their robustness under real-world operating conditions. This paper presents a high-resolution, sensor-rich energy consumption modeling framework using second-by-second operational data and tests on an electric bus fleet operating on Route 49 in Jinan, China. The dataset integrates synchronized measurements of vehicle kinematics, powertrain variables, and thermal conditions, providing a substantially more complete description of bus operation against previous studies. Boosting-based machine learning models are developed to predict the instantaneous power demand, and their performance is evaluated in comparison with a physics-based energy model and other variants of machine learning models. Results show that the data-driven boosting models demonstrate excellent explanatory power ($R^2$ values of up to 0.99 (training) and 0.95 (test)) and remain reliable under nonlinear operating conditions. Feature and SHAP analyses identify physically consistent energy drivers, supporting the applicability of the approach to real-world public transport operations. Full article

Unlike reactive systems, mechanical ventilation controlled by CO₂ concentration operates at a target efficiency that dynamically increases whenever the target CO₂ level is exceeded. This approach eliminates the typical ‘dead-time’ and prevents air quality degradation by ensuring the system adjusts its performance immediately in response to concentration changes. In this work, the study focuses on the development and evaluation of data-driven predictive models for near-term indoor CO₂ forecasting that can be integrated into pre-occupancy ventilation strategies, rather than designing a complete control scheme. Experimental data were collected over four months in a 48 m² smart laboratory configured as an open-plan office, where a heterogeneous IoT sensing architecture logged synchronized time-series measurements of CO₂ and microclimate variables (temperature, relative humidity, PM_2.5, TVOCs), together with acoustic noise levels and appliance-level energy consumption used as indirect occupancy-related signals. Raw telemetry was transformed into a 22-feature state vector using a structured feature engineering method incorporating z-score standardization, cyclic time encodings, multi-horizon CO₂ lags, rolling statistics, momentum features, and non-linear interactions to represent temporal autocorrelation and daily periodicity. The study benchmarks multiple regression paradigms, including simple baselines and ensemble methods, and found that an automated multi-level stacked ensemble achieved the highest predictive fidelity for short-term forecasting, with an Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 32.97 ppm across an observed CO₂ range of 403–2305 ppm, representing improvements of approximately 24% and 43% over Linear Regression and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), respectively. Temporal diagnostics showed strong phase alignment with observed CO₂ rises during occupancy transitions and statistically reliable prediction intervals. Five-fold walk-forward cross-validation confirmed the temporal stability of these results, with top models achieving consistent R² values of 0.93–0.95 across Folds 2–5. These results demonstrate that, within a single-room university laboratory setting, historical sensor data from low-cost IoT devices can support accurate short-term CO₂ forecasting, providing a predictive layer that could support future proactive ventilation scheduling aimed at reducing CO₂ lag at the start of occupancy while avoiding unnecessary ventilation runtime. Generalization to other building types and occupancy profiles requires further validation. Full article

This work solves the problem associated with the lack of analytical models capable of describing the nonlinear vibration behavior of re-entrant hexagonal units when geometric nonlinearity and structural modifications, such as soft filling, are taken into account. The purpose of this study is to develop an analytical framework that enables prediction and control of vibration characteristics, with particular emphasis on achieving low-frequency response and enhanced energy storage and redistribution within the structure. The proposed approach is based on Lagrangian modeling of the unit cell, leading to a nonlinear equation of motion of the Liénard type that admits a first integral. By exploiting the existence of this integral, an approximate analytical expression for the oscillation period is derived using energy-based methods. The analysis is performed for two configurations: an empty unit and a unit filled with a soft material, allowing direct comparison of their dynamic responses. The analytical results are validated through comparison with numerical simulations and available experimental data. A parametric study is conducted to evaluate the influence of the mass ratio and the re-entrant angle on the oscillation period and frequency. Furthermore, the effects of filling mass, stiffness, and degree of filling are systematically investigated, revealing distinct inertia-dominated and stiffness-dominated regimes. The obtained results provide clear design guidelines for tailoring the dynamic response of re-entrant hexagonal units. It is shown that low-frequency vibration and increased capacity for energy storage can be achieved through appropriate selection of geometric parameters and filling properties, with potential applications in vibration control and structural design. Full article

Accurate and trustworthy prediction of lithium-ion battery aging remains challenging due to multi-mechanistic degradation, cell-to-cell variability, and distribution shift between laboratory calibration and deployment. Fractional-order models have been proposed to capture long-memory effects in electrochemical systems; however, it remains unclear when such memory is empirically identifiable and beneficial within the common prognostics abstraction of state-of-health (SOH) versus cycle index. This work develops a fully reproducible computational pipeline for mechanistic battery aging based on a Caputo fractional differential equation (FDE) and evaluates its cross-cell generalization on open NASA cycling data. Parameters are identified using bounded robust nonlinear least squares and validated under a strict transfer protocol: calibration on cells B0005/B0006 and evaluation on held-out cells B0007/B0018 without refitting. The fractional model is benchmarked against a classical ODE surrogate, an ECM-inspired resistance-proxy baseline, and one-step-ahead machine-learning predictors. Uncertainty quantification is performed via parameter bootstrap and subsequently calibrated using conformal correction to target nominal coverage under transfer. Results show that the fractional order tends to collapse toward the integer-order limit (α → 1) in this dataset, indicating limited evidence of additional long-memory at the SOH-versus-cycle level under the considered protocol, while robust identification remains essential for stability. Calibrated prediction intervals achieve near-nominal coverage on held-out cells, highlighting the importance of UQ calibration under cell-to-cell shift. The proposed scripts and environment specifications enable direct replication and facilitate future extensions to stress-aware fractional models and hybrid physics–ML approaches. Full article

Under turbulent wind conditions, rapid wind speed fluctuations can markedly increase the fatigue loads borne by wind turbine blades and towers. In practice, conventional PID pitch control based on speed feedback often struggles to deliver satisfactory load mitigation, mainly because the wind turbine system is highly nonlinear, strongly coupled, and subject to time-delay effects. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes a load-predictive pitch control strategy built on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. Specifically, the LSTM model is first employed to predict the hub-fixed tilt and yaw moments ahead of time. These predicted values are then introduced as feedforward signals and combined with the conventional speed-based pitch control signal as well as a proportional feedback term. After that, the inverse Coleman transformation is used to generate the individual pitch commands for each blade. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, co-simulations were carried out in FAST and MATLAB/Simulink on a 5000 KW distributed pitch-controlled wind turbine under IEC Kaimal spectrum wind conditions, with a mean wind speed of 18 m/s and Class B turbulence intensity. The results show that the LSTM prediction model achieves an R² of 0.998 on the test dataset, with an RMSE as low as 0.0051. Compared with the conventional pitch-based power control strategy, the proposed approach maintains the same average power output while significantly reducing fatigue loads, thereby contributing to a longer service life for the wind turbine. Full article

Background/Objectives: Efficient management of intensive care unit (ICU) resources is a critical challenge for modern healthcare systems, which must balance high-quality patient care with operational and financial performance. ICU length of stay (LOS) is a key metric of clinical complexity and hospital efficiency. However, traditional methods for predicting LOS often fail to capture the complex, nonlinear interactions among physiological, demographic, and treatment-related variables. Machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models have emerged as promising tools for enhancing predictive accuracy and supporting data-driven decision-making. Methods: This study presents a systematic review and meta-analysis of ML and DL approaches for predicting ICU LOS in adult patients. Following PRISMA guidelines, eight scientific databases were searched, yielding 33 eligible studies published between 2015 and 2025. Results: Mixed medical–surgical ICUs were the most common setting (51.5%), and 45.5% of datasets were sourced from public repositories. Most studies (19/33) focused on binary classification of prolonged stays, although thresholds ranged from >48 h to ≥14 days. The pooled results from ten studies yielded an AUROC of 0.9005 (95% CI: 0.8890–0.9121), indicating strong predictive capability across diverse clinical contexts. Subgroup analyses showed comparable performance between specialized surgical and general ICUs. Conclusions: These findings suggest that AI-driven LOS prediction models exhibit strong discriminatory power for ICU LOS prediction, supporting hospital capacity planning. However, to translate this into reliable clinical support, the methodological heterogeneity, scarcity of external validation, and near absence of calibration reporting identified in this review need to be addressed. Full article

Quantitative trading systems require predictive models that simultaneously deliver accurate forecasts, calibrated uncertainty quantification, and actionable risk measures. This paper proposes an information-theoretic semiparametric regression framework combining a convolutional neural network–Transformer (CNN–Transformer) network for nonlinear temporal dependencies with a Gaussian process (GP) prior for residual autocorrelation and calibrated predictive distributions. Three theoretical results are established: an identifiability theorem guarantees joint recoverability of the nonparametric and GP components; a consistency theorem showing that the penalised maximum likelihood estimator converges at a rate $n^{-1/(2+d_{\mathrm{eff}})}$; and a coverage theorem proving asymptotic nominal coverage of the GP’s credible intervals. The framework enables an entropy-regulated trading module where predictive differential entropy informs position sizing via an uncertainty-penalised Kelly criterion, Kullback–Leibler divergence quantifies model uncertainty, and CVaR-constrained optimisation controls the tail risk. Simulations show the method outperforms the CNN, long short-term memory (LSTM), Transformer, XGBoost, random forest, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and standard GP regression approaches. Backtesting on four Chinese A-share stocks yielded annualised returns of 15.9–22.4% with Sharpe ratios of 0.49–0.62, maximum drawdowns below 15%, and daily 95% CVaR reductions of 28–31% relative to a full-Kelly baseline, confirming both predictive accuracy and risk management effectiveness. Full article

To address the limited accuracy of power demand prediction for hybrid electric vehicles under complex and dynamic driving conditions, this paper proposes a hybrid prediction approach based on the cascade correction of Long Short-Term Memory networks and Least Squares Support Vector Machines (LSTM-LSSVM-CC). The proposed method adopts a stage-wise modeling framework that exploits the least-squares optimality of LSSVM for low-frequency steady-state signals and the dynamic compensation capability of LSTM for high-frequency non-stationary residuals, thereby achieving complementary feature representation in the frequency domain. Specifically, an LSSVM is first used to construct a baseline regression model that captures stationary components, followed by an LSTM network that performs deep temporal modeling of the residual sequence to correct nonlinear prediction errors. Extensive experiments conducted on three standard driving cycles—CLTC-P, WLTP, and UDDS—demonstrate that the proposed model consistently outperforms conventional methods including LSSVM, RNN, ELMAN, and Random Forest in multi-step predictions, achieving an average RMSE reduction of 28–52% and maintaining correlation coefficients (R²) between 0.87 and 0.99. Particularly under highly dynamic and abrupt load conditions, the model exhibits superior real-time performance and stability while significantly mitigating cumulative prediction errors. These results demonstrate that the proposed LSTM-LSSVM-CC model achieves robust modeling performance of non-stationary time series while balancing prediction accuracy and computational efficiency, providing an effective technical foundation for hybrid vehicle energy management optimization and offering a transferable theoretical framework for time-series prediction in complex systems. Full article