Search Results (26)

With ongoing global warming, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and associated debris flows pose increasing threats to downstream communities and infrastructure. Glacial lakes differ in their triggering factors and breach mechanisms, necessitating event-specific analysis. This study investigates the GLOF risk of Jiongpuco Lake, located in the southeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, using an integrated approach combining remote sensing, field surveys, and numerical modeling. Results show that the lake has expanded significantly—from 2.08 km² in 1990 to 5.43 km² in 2021—with the most rapid increase observed between 2015 and 2016. InSAR data and optical imagery indicate that surrounding moraine deposits remain generally stable. However, ice avalanches from the glacier terminus are identified as the primary trigger for lake outburst via wave-induced overtopping. Mechanical and geomorphological analyses suggest that the moraine dam is resistant to downcutting erosion, reinforcing overtopping as the dominant failure mode. To assess potential impacts, three numerical simulation scenarios were conducted based on different avalanche volumes. Under the extreme scenario involving a 5-million m³ ice avalanche, the modeled peak discharge at the dam site reaches approximately 19,000 m³/s. Despite the high flood magnitude, the broad and gently sloped downstream terrain facilitates rapid attenuation of flood peaks, resulting in limited impact on downstream settlements. These findings offer critical insights for GLOF hazard assessment, disaster preparedness, and risk mitigation under a changing climate. Full article

This study assesses the risks of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from moraine sediment dams around Gurudongmar Lake in the Northern Sikkim Himalayas at an elevation of 17,800 feet. It focuses on three moraine sediment dams, analysing the implications of slope failure on the upstream side and the downstream stability under steady seepage conditions, as well as the risks posed by permafrost thawing. Using a comprehensive methodology that includes geotechnical evaluations, remote sensing, and digital elevation models (DEMs), the research employs finite element analysis via PLAXIS2D for the stability assessment. The main findings indicate a stratification of sediment types: the upper layers are loose silty sand, while the lower layers are dense silty sand, with significant variations in shear strength, permeability, and other geotechnical properties. Observations of solifluctions suggest that current permafrost conditions enhance the dams’ stability and reduce seepage. However, temperature trends show a warming climate, with the average days below 0 °C decreasing from 314 (2004–2013) to 305 (2014–2023), indicating potential permafrost thawing. This thawing could increase seepage and destabilise the dams, raising the risk of GLOFs. Numerical simulations reveal that scenarios involving water level rises of 5 and 10 m could lead to significant deformation and reduced safety factors on both the upstream lateral dams and downstream front dams. The study emphasises the urgent need for ongoing monitoring and risk assessment to address the potential hazards associated with GLOFs. Full article

The Himalayan belt, formed due to the Cenozoic convergence between the Eurasian and Indian craton, acts as a storehouse of large amounts of strain, resulting in large earthquakes from the Western to the Eastern Himalayas. Glaciers also occur over a major portion of the high-altitude Himalayan region. The impact of earthquakes can be easily studied in the plains and plateaus with the help of well-distributed seismogram networks and these regions’ accessibility is helpful for field- and lab-based studies. However, earthquakes triggered close to high-altitude Himalayan glaciers are tough to investigate for the impact over glaciers and glacial deposits. In this study, we attempt to understand the impact of earthquakes on and around Himalayan glaciers in terms of vertical displacement and coherence change using space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Eight earthquake events of various magnitudes and hypocenter depths occurring in the vicinity of Himalayan glacial bodies were studied using C-band Sentinel1-A/B SAR data. Differential interferometric SAR (DInSAR) analysis is applied to capture deformation of the glacial surface potentially related to earthquake occurrence. Glacial displacement varies from −38.9 mm to −5.4 mm for the 2020 Tibet earthquake (M_w 5.7) and the 2021 Nepal earthquake (M_w 4.1). However, small glacial and ground patches processed separately for vertical displacements reveal that the glacial mass shows much greater seismic displacement than the ground surface. This indicates the possibility of the presence of potential site-specific seismicity amplification properties within glacial bodies. A reduction in co-seismic coherence around the glaciers is observed in some cases, indicative of possible changes in the glacial moraine deposits and/or vegetation cover. The effect of two different seismic events (the 2020 and 2021 Nepal earthquakes) with different hypocenter depths but with the same magnitude at almost equal distances from the glaciers is assessed; a shallow earthquake is observed to result in a larger impact on glacial bodies in terms of vertical displacement. Earthquakes may induce glacial hazards such as glacial surging, ice avalanches, and the failure of moraine-/ice-dammed glacial lakes. This research may be able to play a possible role in identifying areas at risk and provide valuable insights for the planning and implementation of measures for disaster risk reduction. Full article

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) events, particularly prevalent in Asia’s High Mountain regions, pose a significant threat to downstream regions. However, limited understanding of triggering mechanisms and inadequate observations pose significant barriers for early warnings of impending GLOFs. The 2018 Nyalam GLOF event in southern Tibet offers a valuable opportunity for retrospective analysis. By combining optical and radar remote sensing images, meteorological data, and seismicity catalogs, we examined the spatiotemporal evolution, triggering factors, and the outburst mechanism of this event. Our analysis reveals a progressive retreat of 400–800 m for the parent glaciers between 1991 and 2018, increasing the runoff areas at glacier termini by 167% from 2015 to 2018 and contributing abundant meltwater to the glacial lake. In contrast, the lake size shrunk, potentially due to a weakening moraine dam confirmed by SAR interferometry, which detected continuous subsidence with a maximum line-of-sight (LOS) rate of ~120 mm/a over the preceding ~2.5 years. Additionally, temperature and precipitation in 2018 exceeded the prior decade’s average. Notably, no major earthquakes preceded the event. Based on these observations, we propose a likely joint mechanism involving high temperatures, heavy precipitation, and dam instability. An elevated temperature and precipitation accelerated glacial melt, increasing lake water volume and seepage through the moraine dam. This ultimately compromised dam stability and led to its failure between 3 August 2018 and 6 August 2018. Our findings demonstrate the existence of precursory signs for impending GLOFs. By monitoring the spatiotemporal evolution of environmental factors and deformation, it is possible to evaluate glacial lake risk levels. This work contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of GLOF mechanisms and is of significant importance for future glacial lake risk assessments. Full article

On 4 October 2023, a glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) occurred at South Lhonak Lake in the northwest of Sikkim, India, posing a severe threat to downstream lives and property. Given the serious consequences of GLOFs, understanding their triggering factors is urgent. This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of optical imagery and InSAR deformation results to study changes in the surrounding surface of the glacial lake before and after the GLOF event. To expedite the processing of massive InSAR data, an InSAR processing system based on the SBAS-InSAR data processing flow and the AI Earth cloud platform was developed. Sentinel-1 SAR images spanning from January 2021 to March 2024 were used to calculate surface deformation velocity. The evolution of the lake area and surface variations in the landslide area were observed using optical images. The results reveal a significant deformation area within the moraine encircling the lake before the GLOF, aligning with the area where the landslide ultimately occurred. Further research suggests a certain correlation between InSAR deformation results and multiple factors, such as rainfall, lake area, and slope. We speculate that heavy rainfall triggering landslides in the moraine may have contributed to breaching the moraine dam and causing the GLOF. Although the landslide region is relatively stable overall, the presence of a crack in the toparea of landslide raises concerns about potential secondary landslides. Our study may improve GLOF risk assessment and management, thereby mitigating or preventing their hazards. Full article

The retreat of mountain glaciers inevitably leads to an increase in the number of outburst moraine lakes. One of the possible mechanisms of moraine dam outburst along with overflow over the crest is the formation of a filtration channel in the body of the moraine dam (piping). An algorithm for calculating the outburst flood hydrograph, describing the development of a filtration channel in the body of a moraine dam and the subsequent formation of water overflow when the soil above the channel collapses, is proposed in this paper. Verification of proposed methodology was carried out on the basis of experimental data and published data of real outbursts. Satisfactory results verifying this methodology made it possible to use the proposed methodology for the calculation of the hydrograph of the outburst of Lake Bashkara in the Elbrus region, which occurred on 1 September 2017. It is shown that the simulation results are quantitatively comparable with the estimates obtained from field data: the time of water discharge through the channel was 16 min, the period of the outburst wave passage was 40 min, and the maximum discharge was 636 m³/s. Thus, the possibility of applying the proposed methodology for calculating the destruction of natural moraine dams has been demonstrated. Full article

The over 2200 lakes of Mongolia are generally poorly studied, particularly the glacial lakes. This overview study presents a classification of the glacial lakes based on tectonic-geological and geomorphological dynamics. Selected representative lakes are described using results from fieldwork and satellite image analysis, including bathymetry, paleoshorelines, and recent lake-level fluctuations between 1987 and 2020. Generally, lake levels dropped from the early Holocene until recently, with the onset of the climate change-driven glacier recession that has resulted in lake-level rises and area expansion in almost all moraine-dammed, tongue-basin, and ice-contact lakes. In contrast, endorheic lakes have mainly been shrinking for the past forty years because of an increase in air temperature and evaporation rates and the effects of an intensifying water use within the catchment for irrigation, mining, and hydroelectric energy production in the form of dams. The creation of a lake monitoring system based on an in-depth inventory is recommended. Full article

Marine glaciers play a significant role in shaping landforms due to their erosive nature coupled with their surrounding environment. During this process, they pose a natural hazard threat to man-made infrastructure. The dynamic nature of these glaciers poses a particular threat, especially to railway infrastructure constructed in remote areas with glacial activity. Substantial research has been undertaken on the role of threats posed by marine glaciers to railway infrastructure. However, a detailed study of favorable glacier landforms prior to railway construction has yet to be explored. In this study, we propose a geospatial analysis-based method to determine the favorable most landforms shaped by marine glaciers for railway network route selection. This study provides a novel approach by first analyzing the availability of four major favorable landforms shaped by marine glaciers (glacier canyons, valley shoulders, moraine terraces, and ancient dammed lake basins), then proposes a railway route selection method for marine glacier distribution areas involving three steps. First, it is necessary to understand the basic situation of regional glaciers; then, to determine a feasible location for the railway based on judgment of the direct and indirect action areas of glaciers; and finally, through a thematic study of glacial geomorphology, to devise corresponding strategies for using glacial landforms to optimize the railway route. In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed method, it was implemented in the Palong Zangbo watershed of the Sichuan–Tibet railway network. Utilizing the power function method, the glacier basin areas of 22 glacier canyons along the Sichuan–Tibet railway line were identified and the maximum annual average velocity of 75 glaciers over the past ten years was calculated by offset tracking technology. The results indicate that the proposed optimization strategies utilizing glacier canyons for a short and straight route scheme and leveraging moraine terraces for a high-line scheme can provide comprehensive guidance for railway route selection in marine glacial areas. Full article

Lake-terminating glaciers have some peculiar behaviors compared to land-terminating glaciers, but in-depth observation is still limited regarding their formation, which is crucial for understanding the glacier–lake interaction. Here, the long-term evolutions of Tanymas Lake and the Fedchenko Glacier were investigated based on Landsat images, Google Earth imagery, KH-9 images, glacier surface elevation and velocity change datasets, and meteorological records. The results indicate that Tanymas Lake is both an ice-contact proglacial lake and an ice-dammed lake. It covered an area of 1.10 km² in September 2022, and it is one of the largest glacial lakes in Pamir and even in HMA. The initial basin of Tanymas Lake is a moraine depression in Tanymas Pass, and the blocked dam is the Tanymas-5 Glacier and its terminal moraine. Tanymas Lake was in an embryonic stage before August 2005, in a formation and expansion stage from August 2005 to September 2018, and in a new expansion stage after September 2018. In this process, the Tanymas terminus of the Fedchenko Glacier also transformed from a land terminus to a partial lake terminus, and then to a complete lake terminus. The formation of Tanymas Lake is associated with the accumulation of glacial meltwater and the blockage of drainage, while the slow expansion of Tanymas Lake is related to the cold climate and slight glacier mass loss of Central Pamir. In the coming decades, with the accelerated mass loss of the Tanymas terminus of the Fedchenko Glacier, the area, depth, and water storage of Tanymas Lake will continue to increase, accompanied by the growing GLOF risk. Full article

In the literature, mainly particle-size distribution (PSD) analyses in the soil catenas, of e.g., moraine and riverine landscapes were discussed. Analysis and comparison of PSD in moraine (ML) and ice-dammed lakes (ID-LL) landscapes were not studied. Since the landscape of ice-dammed lakes origin has diversified relief and is under intensive agricultural use, the aspects of erosion are of great importance. The changes in PSD were studied in 14 soil catenas (toposequences) of eroding soils at the upper slope (US) as well as colluvial soils at the middle (MS) and lower (LS) slopes and in the depressions (D). The PSD of the fine fractions (<2 mm) was analysed according to the hydrometer method. In order to describe the effect of agricultural use on the variability of PSD in soil surface horizons, sedimentological and granulometric indices were calculated. In the studied moraine landscape, the content of coarse silt fraction was increasing in the catenal sequence from 9.7% in the US to 17.7% in the D. Similar relationships were revealed for the fine silt content. Significant differences were found between the average contents of coarse and fine silt fractions at the US as well as the LS and the D. However, such a relation was not found in the soil catena in the ice-dammed lake landscape. Eroded and colluvial soil materials were very poorly sorted with a standard deviation index of 2.65–3.69. Humus horizons of analysed soils had very fine, fine skewed PSD, mesokurtic and platykurtic distribution (ML), symmetrical, fine skewed and platykurtic distribution (I-DLL). The cluster analysis enabled the separation of two groups of soils: one group in the moraine landscape and the other in the ice-dammed lakes landscape. The PSD in studied soils was similar only among the soils within one type of landscape. Full article

Debris-covered glaciers have contrasting melting mechanisms and climate response patterns if compared with debris-free glaciers and thus show a unique influence on the hydrological process. Based on high-resolution satellite images and unpiloted aerial vehicle surveys, this study investigated the dynamic changes of Zhuxi Glacier, a thick debris-covered glacier in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Our result shows that the whole glacier can be divided into the active regime and stagnant regime along the elevation of 3400 m a.s.l. The mean surface velocity of the active regime was 13.1 m yr⁻¹, which was five times higher than that of the stagnant regime. The surface-lowing rate of this debris-covered glacier reaches more than 1 m yr⁻¹ and displays an accelerating trend. The majority of ice loss concentrates around ice cliffs and supraglacial ponds, the ablation hotspots. These hotspots can be roughly classified into three types, including persistent, expanding, and shrinking patterns, at different dynamic regimes on the Zhuxi Glacier. With the evolution of these hotpots and glacier dynamic changes, the supraglacial ponds showed significant change, with the total number fluctuating from 15 to 38 and the total area increasing from 1128 m² to 95790 m² during the past decade. The recent exponential expansion of the proglacial lake and the significant downwasting of stagnant ice inside the dammed terminus moraine possibly trigger the glacial lake outburst flood and thus threaten the security of livelihoods and infrastructure downstream. Full article

Glacier velocity is one of the critical parameters for understanding the current health status of a glacier. According to the momentum law, mass is inversely proportional to velocity. A higher velocity may indicate a lower mass. Fifteen transboundary glaciers from the eastern Himalayas in the vicinity of India, Nepal, Bhutan, and China are chosen for the estimation of glacier velocity. These glaciers are Changshang, Rathong, South Lhonak, South Simvo, Talung, Tongshiong, Yalung, Zemu, Glacier 2, Glacier 3, Kaer, Ktr Gr 193, Middle Lhonak, North Lhonak, and Ktr Gr 171 (Lhonak Nepal), covering a total area of 440.92 km². A remote sensing and GIS-based approach is considered for the study. High-resolution synthetic aperture radar data from TerraSAR-X were acquired from the German Aerospace Center (DLR) by the European Space Agency for the study area in the years 2020–2021. Satellite data were pre-processed using radiometric calibration and multi-look for speckle noise reduction. These datasets were co-registered using the SRTM Digital Elevation Model. Offset tracking was applied to estimate the glacier velocity. The maximum velocity in all glaciers ranged from 14.31 to 84.26 ma⁻¹. The average velocity ranged from 1.78 to 7.09 ma⁻¹. The glacier with the highest average velocity was the South Lhonak glacier. This glacier has been melting rapidly in the last few decades. Near the snout of this glacier lies a glacial lake made up of a moraine dam. For quality assessment, the latest field-based results of 2018 and the observed results of 2021 were compared. It was noticed that there is a variation of approximately 10%. Full article

One of the main glacier-related natural hazards that are common to alpine locations is the occurrence of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can seriously harm downstream towns and infrastructure. GLOFs have increased in frequency in the central Himalayas in recent years as a result of global warming, and careful management of glacial lakes is a crucial step in catastrophe prevention. In this study, field surveys were conducted on 28 August 2020 and 1 August 2021 with the help of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a boat bathymetric system on an unmanned surface vessel (USV), combined with 22 years of Landsat series imagery and Sentinel-2 MSI imagery data. Spatial analysis was then used to investigate changes in lake surface conditions, dam stability, and surrounding topography before and after an integrated project of the Jialong Co lake. The results show that: (1) from 2000 to 2020 (before engineering management), the area of the Jialong Co glacial lake increased from 0.2148 ± 0.0176 km² to 0.5921 ± 0.0003 km². The glacial lake expansion rate from 2000 to 2010 (0.0145 km²/a) was greater than the rate from 2011 to 2020 (6.92 $\times$ 10⁻⁶ km²/a). In 2021 (after engineering treatment), the glacial lake perimeter, area, and volume decreased by 0.6014 km, 0.1136 km², and 1.90 × 10⁷ m³, respectively. The amount of excavation during the project treatment was 8.13 million square meters, and the amount of filling was 1.24 million square meters. According to the results of the unmanned surface vessel (USV), the elevation of the lake surface dropped from 4331 m to 4281 m, and the water level dropped by 50 m (the designed safe water level line dropped by 30 m). (2) The results of the UAV topographic survey and geomorphological analysis showed that the engineered reinforcement of the outlet channel and surrounding dam effectively mitigated severe scouring of the foot of the final moraine at the outlet of the spillway, as well as the likelihood of glacial lake outbursts caused by ice avalanches and landslides. (3) The comprehensive engineering treatment of this typical glacial lake effectively lowered the water level and improved the stability of the moraine ridge and lake dam, providing a scientific foundation for other glacial lake outburst risk assessments and disaster mitigation and management measures. Thus, it is critical to evaluate the impact of comprehensive engineering management of key glacial lakes to support glacial lake management. Full article

Glacial lakes are a sensitive indicator of regional climate change and one of the initiators of glacier disasters. It is of great significance to understand the spatial distribution and change characteristics of glacial lakes for exploring their response patterns to climate change and assessing the glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) susceptibility. Based on Gaofen-1/6 PMS, Sentinel-2A/2B MSI and Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI images from 2000 to 2020, we integrated geographic information technology and mathematical and statistical methods to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of glacial lakes in Nepal and their dynamic changes, and further discriminated and evaluated the GLOF susceptibility of glacial lakes. The results show that there were 2420 glacial lakes in Nepal in 2020, mainly distributed within the 4500~5500 m, with an area of 87.21 km² and a water storage of 1921.72 × 10⁶ m³. The number and area of glacial lakes with each area above 0.01 km² in Nepal showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2020, while 499 new glacial lakes were born, 139 lakes disappeared, the area and water storage increased by 19.46 km², 403.07 × 10⁶ m³, respectively. Glacial lakes at altitudes <3000 m were relatively stable, while the number and area of glacial lakes at altitudes within 4500~5500 m increased rapidly. We assessed the GLOF susceptibility of 40 moraine-dammed glacial lakes with an area above 0.2 km² in Nepal, and found that there were 8, 12, 14 and 6 glacial lakes with low, medium, high and very high susceptibility, respectively. Among glacial lakes with very high GLOF susceptibility, potential GLOF events of Tsho Rolpa glacial lake, Lower Barun glacial lake and glacial lake with code of GL87091E27797N will cause great harm to downstream regions. GLOFs in Nepal will be in an active status in the future, therefore, the dynamics of glacial lakes and their surroundings should be continuously monitored. Full article

The Sikkim Himalayan glaciers and glacial lakes are affected by climate change like other parts of the Himalayas. As a result of this climate variability in the Sikkim Himalaya, a detailed study of the Gurudongmar lake complex (GLC) evolution and outburst susceptibility assessment is required. Glacial lake volume estimation and lake outburst susceptibility assessment were carried out to reveal different characteristics for all four lakes (GL-1, GL-2, GL-3, and GL-4) from the lake complex. Each of these lakes has a moderate to very high potential to outburst. As the dam of GL-1 provides no retention capacity, there is a very high potential of a combined effect with the sudden failure of the moraine-dams of GL-2 or GL-3 located upstream. Temporal analysis of GLC using optical remote sensing data and in-field investigations revealed a rapidly increasing total lake area by ~74 ± 3%, with an expansion rate of +0.03 ± 0.002 km² a⁻¹ between 1962 and 2018 due to climate change and ongoing glacier retreat. The overall lake area expansion rates are dependent on climate-driven factors, and constantly increasing average air temperature is responsible for the enlargement of the lake areas. Simultaneously, changes in GLC expansion velocity are driven by changes in the total amount of precipitation. The deficit in precipitation probably triggered the initial higher rate from 1962 to 1988 during the winter and spring seasons. The post-1990s positive anomaly in precipitation might have reduced the rate of the glacial lake area expansion considerably. Full article