Search Results (1,412)

River embankments are critical flood defense structures, stretching for thousands of kilometers across alluvial plains. They often originated as natural levees resulting from overbank flows and were later enlarged using locally available soils yet rarely designed according to modern engineering standards. Substantially under-characterized, their performance to extreme events provides an invaluable opportunity to highlight their vulnerability and then to improve monitoring, management, and reinforcement strategies. In May 2023, two extreme meteorological events hit the Emilia-Romagna region in rapid succession, causing numerous breaches along river embankments and therefore widespread flooding of cities and territories. These were followed by two additional intense events in September and October 2024, marking an unprecedented frequency of extreme precipitation episodes in the history of the region. This study presents the methodology adopted to create a regional database of 66 major breaches and damages that occurred during May 2023 extensive floods. The database integrates multi-source information, including field surveys; remote sensing data; and eyewitness documentation collected before, during, and after the events. Preliminary interpretation enabled the identification of the most likely failure mechanisms—primarily external erosion, internal erosion, and slope instability—often acting in combination. The database, unprecedented in Italy and with few parallels worldwide, also supported a statistical analysis of breach widths in relation to failure mechanisms, crucial for improving flood hazard models, which often rely on generalized assumptions about breach development. By offering insights into the real-scale behavior of a regional river defense system, the dataset provides an important tool to support river embankments risk assessment and future resilience strategies. Full article

The current study aimed to determine the optimum agronomic conditions—specifically sowing date and seeding density—for soybean cultivation in a temperate climate. A field experiment was conducted to evaluate three sowing dates based on soil temperature (S1—9 °C, S2—12 °C, S3—15 °C) and three seeding densities (D1—50, D2—70, D3—90 seeds·m⁻²). A field experiment was conducted in the years 2017–2019 in eastern Poland (Central Europe). Yields were strongly influenced by weather conditions. In 2019, the average yield was 2.61 Mg·ha⁻¹, making it the most favorable year, whereas 2018 was the least favorable, with an average yield of 1.41 Mg·ha⁻¹. Seeding density also affected soybean yields—the highest yield was obtained at the medium density (D2—2.36 Mg∙ha⁻¹). On the other hand, the highest thousand seed weight (159.30 g·m⁻²) was achieved at the lowest density (D1). Plant height and pod length depended on the sowing date. The tallest plants (69.96 cm) and the longest pods (4.55 cm) were obtained with early sowing (S1). The number of seeds per pod ranged from 1.8 to 2.7, with the highest values recorded in 2017, mainly with early sowing (S1) and low density (D1). It is recommended that sowing strategies be flexibly adjusted to the meteorological conditions of a given season. The findings indicate that appropriate selection of sowing parameters can significantly enhance the efficiency and stability of soybean yields under the variable climatic conditions of Poland. Full article

BeiDou navigation satellite system (BDS) precise point positioning (PPP)-B2b has significant potential for application in meteorological fields, such as standalone water vapor monitoring in depopulated area without Internet. In this study, the practical ability of water vapor monitoring using the BDS PPP-B2b service is illustrated through a continuously operated water vapor monitoring system in Wuhan, China, with a 25-day experiment in 2025. Original observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and BDS are collected and processed in the near real-time (NRT) mode using ephemeris from the PPP-B2b service. Precipitable water vapor PWV monitored with B2b ephemeris are evaluated with radiosonde and ERA5 reanalysis, respectively. Taking PWV from radiosonde observations as the reference, RMS of PWV based on B2b ephemeris varies from 3.71 to 4.66 mm for different satellite combinations. While those values are with a range from 3.95 to 4.55 mm when compared with ERA5 reanalysis. These values are similar to those processed with the real-time ephemeris from the China Academy of Science (CAS). In general, this study demonstrates that the practical accuracy of water vapor monitored based on the BDS PPP-B2b service can meet the basic demand for operational meteorology for the first time. This will provide a scientific reference for its wide promotion to meteorological applications in the near future. Full article

High-resolution numerical weather prediction requires accurate cloud microphysical initial conditions to enhance forecasting capabilities for high-impact severe weather events such as convective storms. This study integrated Fengyun-2 (FY-2) geostationary satellite data (equivalent blackbody temperature and total cloud cover) and next-generation 3D weather radar reflectivity from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) to construct cloud microphysical initial fields and evaluate their impact on the CMA-MESO 3 km regional model. An analysis of the catastrophic rainfall event in Henan on 20 July 2021, and a 92-day continuous experiment (May–July 2024) revealed that assimilating cloud microphysical variables significantly improved precipitation forecasting: the equitable threat scores (ETSs) for 1 h forecasts of light, moderate, and heavy rain increased from 0.083, 0.043, and 0.007 to 0.41, 0.36, and 0.217, respectively, with average hourly ETS improvements of 21–71% for 2–6 h forecasts and increases in ETSs for light, moderate, and heavy rain of 7.5%, 9.8%, and 24.9% at 7–12 h, with limited improvement beyond 12 h. Furthermore, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the 2 m temperature forecasts decreased across all 1–72 h lead times, with a 4.2% reduction during the 1–9 h period, while the geopotential height RMSE reductions reached 5.8%, 3.3%, and 2.0% at 24, 48, and 72 h, respectively. Additionally, synchronized enhancements were observed in 10 m wind prediction accuracy. These findings underscore the critical role of cloud microphysical initialization in advancing mesoscale numerical weather prediction systems. Full article

The rising frequency of heatwaves, combined with the urban heat island effect, increases the population’s exposure to high temperatures, significantly impacting the health of vulnerable groups and the overall well-being of residents. While mesoscale meteorological models can reliably forecast temperatures across urban neighbourhoods, dense networks of in situ measurements offer more precise data at the street scale. In this work, the Random Forest technique was used to predict street-scale temperatures in the downtown area of Thessaloniki, Greece, during a prolonged heatwave in July 2021. The model was trained using data from a low-cost sensor network, meteorological fields calculated by the mesoscale model MEMO, and micro-environmental spatial features. The results show that, although the MEMO temperature predictions achieve high accuracy during nighttime compared to measurements, they exhibit inconsistent trends across sensor locations during daytime, indicating that the model does not fully account for microclimatic phenomena. Additionally, by using only the observed temperature as the target of the Random Forest model, higher accuracy is achieved, but spatial features are not represented in the predictions. In contrast, the most reliable approach to incorporating spatial characteristics is to use the difference between observed and mesoscale temperatures as the target variable. Full article

Monitoring soil moisture (SM) using permanently installed gamma radiation (GR) detectors is a promising non-invasive method based on the inverse relationship between SM and soil-emitted GR. In a previous study, we successfully estimated SM from environmental gamma radiation (EGR) measured by a low-cost counter-tube detector. Since this detector type provides a bulk GR response across a wide energy range, EGR signals are influenced by several confounding factors, e.g., soil radon emanation, biomass. To what extent these confounding factors deteriorate the accuracy of SM estimates obtained from EGR is not fully understood. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of SM estimates from EGR with those from reference ⁴⁰K GR (1460 keV) measurements which are much less influenced by these factors. For this, a Geiger–Mueller counter (G–M), which is commonly used for EGR monitoring, and a gamma spectrometer were installed side by side in an agricultural field equipped with in situ sensors to measure reference SM and a meteorological station. The EGR_G–M and spectrometry-based ⁴⁰K measurements were related to reference SM using a functional relationship derived from theory. We found that daily SM can be predicted with an RMSE of 3.39 vol. % from ⁴⁰K using the theoretical value of α = 1.11 obtained from the effective ratio of GR mass attenuation coefficients for the water and solid phase. A lower accuracy was achieved for the EGR_G–M measurements (RMSE = 6.90 vol. %). Wavelet coherence analysis revealed that the EGR_G–M measurements were influenced by radon-induced noise in winter. Additionally, biomass shielding had a stronger impact on EGR_G–M than on ⁴⁰K GR estimates of SM during summer. In summary, our study provides a better understanding on the lower prediction accuracy of EGR_G–M and suggests that correcting for biomass can improve SM estimation from the bulk EGR data of operational radioactivity monitoring networks. Full article

Under the scenario of global climate warming, meteorological risks affecting sunflower cultivation in Xinjiang’s 10th Division were investigated by developing a meteorological-growth coupling model. Field experiments were conducted at three representative stations (A1–A3) during 2023–2024 to assess temperature and precipitation impacts on yield and quality traits among sunflower cultivars with varying maturation periods. The main findings were: (1) Early-maturing cultivar B1 (RH3146) exhibited superior adaptation at low-temperature station A1, achieving 12% higher plant height and an 18% yield increase compared to regional averages. (2) At thermally variable station A2 (daily average temperature fluctuation ± 8 °C, precipitation CV = 25%), the late-maturing cultivar B3 showed enhanced stress resilience, achieving 35.6% grain crude fat content (15% greater than mid-maturing B2) along with 8–10% increases in seed setting rate and 100-grain weight. These improvements were potentially due to optimized photoassimilated allocation and activation of stress-responsive genes. (3) At station A3, characterized by high thermal-humidity variability (CV > 15%) during grain filling, B3 experienced a 15-day delay in maturation and a 3% reduction in ripeness. Two principal mitigation strategies are recommended: preferential selection of early-to-mid maturing cultivars in regions with thermal-humidity CV > 10%, improving yield stability by 23%, and optimization of sowing schedules based on accumulated temperature-precipitation modeling, reducing meteorological losses by 15%. These evidence-based recommendations provide critical insights for climate-resilient cultivar selection and precision agricultural management in meteorologically vulnerable agroecosystems. Full article

Field trials were carried out over two tobacco cropping seasons (2020 and 2021) to assess the effectiveness of soil (PRE-T) and post-transplant (POST-T (OT)) herbicides in a tobacco crop, depending on rainfall and the type of soil. The effectiveness of PRE-T and POST-T (OT) herbicides alternated according to the presence of weeds, treatments, the region, and years. Unpredictable meteorological conditions throughout the two study years likely influenced the control of weeds. An unusually moist May in 2020 with a precipitation of 29 mm in the first WA PRE-T before the emergence of weeds generated the leaching of the PRE-T herbicide from the surface of the soil, which was likely the most probable reason for the reduced effectiveness of PRE-T-applied herbicides (less than 77%) in comparison to the POST-T (OT) application treatment in 2020 in the Prilep region. Conversely, the restricted rainfall after PRE-T and POST-T (OT) application may have caused the unsatisfactory efficacy of both PRE-T and POST-T (OT) herbicide treatments in the Titov Veles region in 2021 (less than 78 and 80%, respectively) in comparison with 2020. Excessive rain immediately after PRE-T and POST-T (OT) application resulted in the injury of tobacco plants in the Prilep region in 2020 and 2021, which was between 8 and 25%, and 7 and 22%, respectively, after seven DAHAs across both treatments. The injuries caused by pendimethalin and metolachlor were more serious. The yields of tobacco after both PRE-T and POST-T treatment in each region typically reflect the overall effectiveness of weed control and the extent of tobacco crop injury. Full article

With the wide application of airdrop technology in rescue activities in civil and aerospace fields, the importance of accurate airdrop is increasing. This work comprehensively analyzes the interactive mechanisms among multiple models affecting airdrops, including wind field distribution, drag force effect, and the parachute opening process. By integrating key parameters across various dimensions of these models, a multidimensional parameter dynamic evolution (MPDE) target prediction method for aerial delivery parachutes in radar-detected wind fields is proposed, and the Runge–Kutta method is applied to dynamically solve for the final landing point of the target. In order to verify the performance of the method, this work carries out field airdrop experiments based on the radar-measured meteorological data. To evaluate the impact of model input errors on prediction methods, this work analyzes the influence mechanism of the wind field detection error on the airdrop prediction method via the Relative Gain Array (RGA) and verifies the analytical results using the numerical simulation method. The experimental results indicate that the optimized MPDE method exhibits higher accuracy than the widely used linear airdrop target prediction method, with the accuracy improved by 52.03%. Additionally, under wind field detection errors, the linear prediction method demonstrates stronger robustness. The airdrop error shows a trigonometric relationship with the angle between the synthetic wind direction and the heading, and the phase of the function will shift according to the difference in errors. The sensitivity of the MPDE method to wind field errors is positively correlated with the size of its object parachute area. Full article

A numerical simulation experiment is conducted to study the first-ever waterspout observed in Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong, in 2024, namely, a mesoscale meteorological model with a spatial resolution of 200 m coupled with a computational fluid dynamics model with a spatial resolution of 4 m. It is found that the simulation could reproduce the observed wind field near the surface reasonably well, as well as the location of the waterspout and showers, as shown in the weather image. By conducting simulations with and without buildings, it is found that the inclusion of buildings is essential for the successful reproduction of the flow fields near the surface and up to several hundred metres high. This may suggest that urbanization plays a role in the occurrence of this waterspout. The resultant horizontal vorticity is then stretched by strong vertical motion at around 850 hPa, resulting in the waterspout, though no closed circulation could be simulated at the location of the waterspout. Moreover, the cyclonic feature for the flow field near the surface has a time lag of about 30 min compared with the actual waterspout occurrence. Nonetheless, the simulation is considered to be generally satisfactory and provides useful insight into the occurrence of the waterspout. Full article

Accurate short-term precipitation forecasting (nowcasting) based on weather radar data is essential for managing weather-related risks, particularly in applications such as airport operations, urban flood prevention, and public safety during outdoor events. This study proposes a computationally efficient nowcasting method based on a Lagrangian advection scheme, estimating both the translation and rotation of radar-observed precipitation fields without relying on machine learning or resource-intensive computation. The method was tested on a two-year dataset (2022–2023) over Tuscany, using data collected from the Italian Civil Protection Department’s radar network. Forecast performance was evaluated using the Critical Success Index (CSI) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) across varying spatial domains (1° × 1° to 2° × 2°) and precipitation regimes. The results show that, for high-intensity events (average rate > 1 mm/h), the method achieved CSI scores exceeding 0.5 for lead times up to 2 h. In the case of low-intensity rainfall (average rate < 0.3 mm/h), its forecasting skill dropped after 20–30 min. Forecast accuracy was shown to be highly sensitive to the temporal stability of precipitation intensity. The method performed well under quasi-stationary stratiform conditions, whereas its skill declined during rapidly evolving convective events. The method has low computational requirements, with forecasts generated in under one minute on standard hardware, and it is well suited for real-time application in regional meteorological centres. Overall, the findings highlight the method’s effective balance between simplicity and performance, making it a practical and scalable option for operational nowcasting in settings with limited computational capacity. Its deployment is currently being planned at the LaMMA Consortium, the official meteorological service of Tuscany. Full article

The continuous development of both numerical weather model outputs and remote sensing-derived products has enabled a wide range of applications across various fields, such as agricultural water management, where the need for robust gridded weather data and recurring Earth Observations (EO) is fundamental for estimating crop water requirements (CWR) and yield. This study used the latest reanalysis dataset, AgERA5, combined with the up-to-date CM SAF SARAH-3 Satellite-Based Radiation Data as meteorological inputs of the SAFY dynamic crop growth model and a one-step evapotranspiration formula for CWR and yield estimates at the farm scale of tomato crops. The Sentinel-2 (S2) estimates of Leaf Area Index (LAI) were used to force the SAFY model as soon as they became available during the growing stage, according to the satellite passages over the area of interest. The SAFY model was calibrated with ground-based weather observations and S2 LAI data on tomato crops that were collected in several farms in Campania Region (Southern Italy) during the irrigation season, which spans from April to August. To validate the method, the model estimates were compared with field observations of irrigation volumes and harvested yield from a monitored farm in the same region for the year 2021. Results demonstrated that integrating AgERA5 and CM SAF weather datasets with S2 imagery for assimilation into the SAFY model enables accurate estimates of both CWR and yield. Full article

Flight delays pose a significant challenge to the modern aviation industry, with prediction difficulties arising from the need to accurately model spatio-temporal dependencies and uncertainties within complex air traffic networks. To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel hybrid predictive framework named DenseNet-LSTM-FBLS. The framework first employs a DenseNet-LSTM module for deep spatio-temporal feature extraction, where DenseNet captures the intricate spatial correlations between airports, and LSTM models the temporal evolution of delays and meteorological conditions. In a key innovation, the extracted features are fed into a Fuzzy Broad Learning System (FBLS)—marking the first application of this method in the field of flight delay prediction. The FBLS component effectively handles data uncertainty through its fuzzy logic, while its “broad” architecture offers greater computational efficiency compared to traditional deep networks. Validated on a large-scale dataset of 198,970 real-world European flights, the proposed model achieves a prediction accuracy of 92.71%, significantly outperforming various baseline models. The results demonstrate that the DenseNet-LSTM-FBLS framework provides a highly accurate and efficient solution for flight delay forecasting, highlighting the considerable potential of Fuzzy Broad Learning Systems for tackling complex real-world prediction tasks. Full article

This study presents AD-MRCNN, an advanced deep learning framework for automated atmospheric front detection that addresses two critical limitations in existing methods. First, current approaches directly input raw meteorological data without optimizing feature compatibility, potentially hindering model performance. Second, they typically only provide frontal category information without identifying individual frontal systems. Our solution integrates two key innovations: 1. An intelligent adapter module that performs adaptive feature fusion, automatically weighting and combining multi-source meteorological inputs (including temperature, wind fields, and humidity data) to maximize their synergistic effects while minimizing feature conflicts; the utilized network achieves an average improvement of over 4% across various metrics. 2. An enhanced instance segmentation network based on Mask R-CNN architecture that simultaneously achieves (1) precise frontal type classification (cold/warm/stationary/occluded), (2) accurate spatial localization, and (3) identification of distinct frontal systems. Comprehensive evaluation using ERA5 reanalysis data (2009–2018) demonstrates significant improvements, including an 85.1% F1-score, outperforming traditional methods (TFP: 63.1%) and deep learning approaches (Unet: 83.3%), and a 31% reduction in false alarms compared to semantic segmentation methods. The framework’s modular design allows for potential application to other meteorological feature detection tasks. Future work will focus on incorporating temporal dynamics for frontal evolution prediction. Full article

Boao Jade Beach, on the east coast of Hainan Island, is a typical sandy beach and is one of the areas where typhoons frequently land in Hainan. This study examined wind speed, wind direction, and sediment transport data obtained from field meteorological stations and omnidirectional sand accumulation instruments from 2020 to 2024 to study the coastal aeolian environment and sediment transport distribution characteristics in the region. The findings provide a theoretical basis for comprehensive analyses of the evolution of coastal aeolian landforms and the evaluation and control of coastal aeolian hazards. The research results showed the following: (1) The annual average threshold wind velocity for sand movement in the study area was 6.13 m/s, and the wind speed frequency was 20.97%, mainly dominated by easterly winds (NNE, NE) and southerly winds (S). (2) The annual drift potential (DP) and resultant drift potential (RDP) of Boao Jade Belt Beach from 2020 to 2024 were 125.99 VU and 29.59 VU, respectively, indicating a low-energy wind environment. The yearly index of directional wind variability (RDP/DP) was 0.23, which is classified as a small ratio and indicates blunt bimodal wind conditions. The yearly resultant drift direction (RDD) was 329.41°, corresponding to the NNW direction, indicating that the sand on Boao Jade Belt Beach is generally transported in the southwest direction. (3) When the measured data from the sand accumulation instrument in the study area from 2020 to 2024 were used for a statistical analysis, the results showed that the total sediment transport rate in the study area was 39.97 kg/m·a, with the maximum sediment transport rate in the S direction being 17.74 kg/m·a. These results suggest that, when sand fixation systems are constructed for relevant infrastructure in the region, the direction of protective forests and other engineering measures should be perpendicular to the net direction of sand transport. Full article