Search Results (7,355)

With the wide application of airdrop technology in rescue activities in civil and aerospace fields, the importance of accurate airdrop is increasing. This work comprehensively analyzes the interactive mechanisms among multiple models affecting airdrops, including wind field distribution, drag force effect, and the parachute opening process. By integrating key parameters across various dimensions of these models, a multidimensional parameter dynamic evolution (MPDE) target prediction method for aerial delivery parachutes in radar-detected wind fields is proposed, and the Runge–Kutta method is applied to dynamically solve for the final landing point of the target. In order to verify the performance of the method, this work carries out field airdrop experiments based on the radar-measured meteorological data. To evaluate the impact of model input errors on prediction methods, this work analyzes the influence mechanism of the wind field detection error on the airdrop prediction method via the Relative Gain Array (RGA) and verifies the analytical results using the numerical simulation method. The experimental results indicate that the optimized MPDE method exhibits higher accuracy than the widely used linear airdrop target prediction method, with the accuracy improved by 52.03%. Additionally, under wind field detection errors, the linear prediction method demonstrates stronger robustness. The airdrop error shows a trigonometric relationship with the angle between the synthetic wind direction and the heading, and the phase of the function will shift according to the difference in errors. The sensitivity of the MPDE method to wind field errors is positively correlated with the size of its object parachute area. Full article

Accurate short-term precipitation forecasting (nowcasting) based on weather radar data is essential for managing weather-related risks, particularly in applications such as airport operations, urban flood prevention, and public safety during outdoor events. This study proposes a computationally efficient nowcasting method based on a Lagrangian advection scheme, estimating both the translation and rotation of radar-observed precipitation fields without relying on machine learning or resource-intensive computation. The method was tested on a two-year dataset (2022–2023) over Tuscany, using data collected from the Italian Civil Protection Department’s radar network. Forecast performance was evaluated using the Critical Success Index (CSI) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) across varying spatial domains (1° × 1° to 2° × 2°) and precipitation regimes. The results show that, for high-intensity events (average rate > 1 mm/h), the method achieved CSI scores exceeding 0.5 for lead times up to 2 h. In the case of low-intensity rainfall (average rate < 0.3 mm/h), its forecasting skill dropped after 20–30 min. Forecast accuracy was shown to be highly sensitive to the temporal stability of precipitation intensity. The method performed well under quasi-stationary stratiform conditions, whereas its skill declined during rapidly evolving convective events. The method has low computational requirements, with forecasts generated in under one minute on standard hardware, and it is well suited for real-time application in regional meteorological centres. Overall, the findings highlight the method’s effective balance between simplicity and performance, making it a practical and scalable option for operational nowcasting in settings with limited computational capacity. Its deployment is currently being planned at the LaMMA Consortium, the official meteorological service of Tuscany. Full article

Objective: Our objective was to investigate the short-term effects of ambient ozone (O₃) meteorological factors and their interactions on hospitalizations for cerebral infarction in Zhengzhou, China. Methods: Daily data on air pollutants, meteorological factors, and hospitalization of cerebral infarction patients were collected from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2023 in Zhengzhou, China. A generalized additive model was constructed to evaluate the association between ambient O₃ levels and hospitalization for cerebral infarction. A distributed lag non-linear model was applied to capture lagged and non-linear exposure effects. We further examined the modifying roles of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure, and conducted stratified analyses by sex, age, and season. Results: O₃ exposure was significantly associated with increased cerebral infarction risk, particularly during the warm season. A bimodal temperature-lag pattern was observed, as follows: moderate temperatures (10–20 °C) were associated with immediate effects, while cold (<10 °C) and hot (>30 °C) temperatures were linked to delayed risks. The association of O₃ and hospitalizations for cerebral infarction appeared stronger under high humidity, low wind speed, and low atmospheric pressure. Conclusions: Short-term O₃ exposure and adverse meteorological conditions are jointly associated with an elevated risk of cerebral infarction. Integrated air quality and weather-based warning systems are essential for targeted stroke prevention. Full article

The spatiotemporal changes and driving mechanisms of rain-on-snow (ROS) events and their intensities are crucial for responding to disasters triggered by such events. However, there is currently a lack of detailed assessment of the seasonal variations and driving mechanisms of ROS events and their intensities in China. Therefore, this study utilized daily meteorological data and daily snow depth data from 513 stations in China during 1978–2020 to investigate spatiotemporal variations of ROS events and their intensities. Also, based on the detrend and partial correlation analysis model, the driving factors of ROS events and their intensity were explored. The results showed that ROS events primarily occurred in northern Xinjiang, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, Northeast China, and central and eastern China. ROS events frequently occurred in the middle and lower Yangtze River Plain in winter but were easily overlooked. The number and intensity of ROS events increased significantly (p < 0.05) in the Changbai Mountains in spring and the Altay Mountains and the southeast part of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in winter, leading to heightened ROS flood risks. However, the number and intensity of ROS events decreased significantly (p < 0.05) in the middle and lower Yangtze River Plain in winter. The driving mechanisms of the changes for ROS events and their intensities were different. Changes in the number of ROS events and their intensities in snow-rich regions were driven by rainfall days and quantity of rainfall, respectively. In regions with more rainfall, these changes were driven by snow cover days and snow water equivalent, respectively. Air temperature had no direct impact on ROS events and their intensities. These findings provide reliable evidence for responding to disasters and changes triggered by ROS events. Full article

The continuous development of both numerical weather model outputs and remote sensing-derived products has enabled a wide range of applications across various fields, such as agricultural water management, where the need for robust gridded weather data and recurring Earth Observations (EO) is fundamental for estimating crop water requirements (CWR) and yield. This study used the latest reanalysis dataset, AgERA5, combined with the up-to-date CM SAF SARAH-3 Satellite-Based Radiation Data as meteorological inputs of the SAFY dynamic crop growth model and a one-step evapotranspiration formula for CWR and yield estimates at the farm scale of tomato crops. The Sentinel-2 (S2) estimates of Leaf Area Index (LAI) were used to force the SAFY model as soon as they became available during the growing stage, according to the satellite passages over the area of interest. The SAFY model was calibrated with ground-based weather observations and S2 LAI data on tomato crops that were collected in several farms in Campania Region (Southern Italy) during the irrigation season, which spans from April to August. To validate the method, the model estimates were compared with field observations of irrigation volumes and harvested yield from a monitored farm in the same region for the year 2021. Results demonstrated that integrating AgERA5 and CM SAF weather datasets with S2 imagery for assimilation into the SAFY model enables accurate estimates of both CWR and yield. Full article

Agriculture accounts for 29% of the Gross Domestic Product of the Nusa Tenggara Islands (NTIs). However, recurring agricultural droughts pose a major threat to the sustainability of agriculture in this region. The interplay between precipitation, solar radiation, and surface temperature as meteorological factors plays a key role in affecting vegetation (Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index) and agricultural drought (Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index) in the NTIs. Based on the analyses of interplay with temporal lag, this study investigates the effect of each factor on agricultural drought and attempts to provide early warnings regarding drought in the NTIs. We collected surface information data from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Meanwhile, rainfall was estimated from Himawari-8 based on the INSAT Multi-Spectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA). The results showed reliable performance for 8-day and monthly scales against gauges. The drought analysis results reveal that the NTIs suffer from mild-to-moderate droughts, where cropland is the most vulnerable, causing shifts in the rice cropping season. The driving factors could also explain >60% of the vegetation and surface-dryness conditions. Furthermore, our monthly and 8-day TVDI estimation models could capture spatial drought patterns consistent with MODIS, with coefficient of determination (R²) values of more than 0.64. The low error rates and the ability to capture the spatial distribution of droughts, especially in open-land vegetation, highlight the potential of these models to provide an estimation of agricultural drought. Full article

Accurately identifying the sources of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) pollution is crucial for pollution control and public health protection. Taking the PM_2.5 pollution event that occurred in Suzhou in June 2023 as a typical case, this study analyzed the characteristics and components of PM_2.5, and quantified the contributions of meteorological conditions, regional transport, and local emissions to the summertime PM_2.5 surge in a typical Yangtze River Delta (YRD) city. Chemical composition analysis highlighted a sharp increase in nitrate ions (NO₃⁻, contributing up to 49% during peak pollution), with calcium ion (Ca²⁺) and sulfate ion (SO₄²⁻) concentrations rising to 2 times and 7.5 times those of clean periods, respectively. Results from the random forest model demonstrated that emission sources (74%) dominated this pollution episode, significantly surpassing the meteorological contribution (26%). The Weather Research and Forecasting model combined with the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (WRF–CMAQ) further revealed that local emissions contributed the most to PM_2.5 concentrations in Suzhou (46.3%), while external transport primarily originated from upwind cities such as Shanghai and Jiaxing. The findings indicate synergistic effects from dust sources, industrial emissions, and mobile sources. Validation using electricity consumption and key enterprise emission data confirmed that intensive local industrial activities exacerbated PM_2.5 accumulation. Recommendations include strengthening regulations on local industrial and mobile source emissions, and enhancing regional joint prevention and control mechanisms to mitigate cross-boundary transport impacts. Full article

Soil moisture (SM) is a key variable in agricultural ecosystems and is crucial for drought prevention and control management. However, SM is influenced by underlying surface and meteorological conditions, and it changes rapidly in time and space. To capture the changes in SM and improve the accuracy of short-term and medium-to-long-term predictions on a daily scale, an LSTMseq2seq model driven by both observational data and mechanism models was constructed. This framework combines historical meteorological elements and SM, as well as the SM change characteristics output by the VIC model, to predict SM over a 90-day period. The model was validated using SMAP SM. The proposed model can accurately predict the spatiotemporal variations in SM in Jiangxi Province. Compared with classical machine learning (ML) models, traditional LSTM models, and advanced transformer models, the LSTMseq2seq model achieved R² values of 0.949, 0.9322, 0.8839, 0.8042, and 0.7451 for the prediction of surface SM over 3 days, 7 days, 30 days, 60 days, and 90 days, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) ranged from 0.0118 m³/m³ to 0.0285 m³/m³. This study also analyzed the contributions of meteorological features and simulated future SM state changes to SM prediction from two perspectives: time importance and feature importance. The results indicated that meteorological and SM changes within a certain time range prior to the prediction have an impact on SM prediction. The dual-driven LSTMseq2seq model has unique advantages in predicting SM and is conducive to the integration of physical mechanism models with data-driven models for handling input features of different lengths, providing support for daily-scale SM time series prediction and drought dynamics prediction. Full article

Flight delays pose a significant challenge to the modern aviation industry, with prediction difficulties arising from the need to accurately model spatio-temporal dependencies and uncertainties within complex air traffic networks. To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel hybrid predictive framework named DenseNet-LSTM-FBLS. The framework first employs a DenseNet-LSTM module for deep spatio-temporal feature extraction, where DenseNet captures the intricate spatial correlations between airports, and LSTM models the temporal evolution of delays and meteorological conditions. In a key innovation, the extracted features are fed into a Fuzzy Broad Learning System (FBLS)—marking the first application of this method in the field of flight delay prediction. The FBLS component effectively handles data uncertainty through its fuzzy logic, while its “broad” architecture offers greater computational efficiency compared to traditional deep networks. Validated on a large-scale dataset of 198,970 real-world European flights, the proposed model achieves a prediction accuracy of 92.71%, significantly outperforming various baseline models. The results demonstrate that the DenseNet-LSTM-FBLS framework provides a highly accurate and efficient solution for flight delay forecasting, highlighting the considerable potential of Fuzzy Broad Learning Systems for tackling complex real-world prediction tasks. Full article

The Dangerous Goods Transportation (DGT) presents significant challenges, requiring a strong and systematic risk assessment framework to ensure the safety and efficiency of the supply chain. This study addresses a critical gap by integrating a deterministic and holistic approach to risk assessment and management. Utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS), meteorological data, and material-specific information, the research develops a data-driven approach to identify analyze, evaluate, and mitigate risks associated with DGT. The main objectives include monitoring dangerous goods flows to identify critical risk areas, optimizing emergency response using a shared model, and providing targeted training for stakeholders involved in DGT. The study leverages Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to systematically collect, interpret, and evaluate data, producing detailed risk scenario maps. These maps are instrumental in identifying vulnerable areas, predicting potential accidents, and assessing the effectiveness of risk management strategies. This work introduces an innovative GIS-based risk assessment model that combines static and dynamic data to address various aspects of DGT, including hazard identification, accident prevention, and real-time decision support. The results contribute to enhancing safety protocols and provide actionable insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to improve the resilience of technological systems for road transport networks handling dangerous goods. Full article

This study presents AD-MRCNN, an advanced deep learning framework for automated atmospheric front detection that addresses two critical limitations in existing methods. First, current approaches directly input raw meteorological data without optimizing feature compatibility, potentially hindering model performance. Second, they typically only provide frontal category information without identifying individual frontal systems. Our solution integrates two key innovations: 1. An intelligent adapter module that performs adaptive feature fusion, automatically weighting and combining multi-source meteorological inputs (including temperature, wind fields, and humidity data) to maximize their synergistic effects while minimizing feature conflicts; the utilized network achieves an average improvement of over 4% across various metrics. 2. An enhanced instance segmentation network based on Mask R-CNN architecture that simultaneously achieves (1) precise frontal type classification (cold/warm/stationary/occluded), (2) accurate spatial localization, and (3) identification of distinct frontal systems. Comprehensive evaluation using ERA5 reanalysis data (2009–2018) demonstrates significant improvements, including an 85.1% F1-score, outperforming traditional methods (TFP: 63.1%) and deep learning approaches (Unet: 83.3%), and a 31% reduction in false alarms compared to semantic segmentation methods. The framework’s modular design allows for potential application to other meteorological feature detection tasks. Future work will focus on incorporating temporal dynamics for frontal evolution prediction. Full article

With increasing global climate change, extreme weather threats to indoor environments are growing. Heatwave events provide essential data for building thermal resilience analysis. However, existing heatwave definition indicators vary widely and lack standardized criteria. To more accurately evaluate indoor overheating risks, this study compared indoor overheating responses under different heatwave definition indicators, considering the temporal disconnect between indoor and outdoor heat conditions. Focusing on Beijing, this study established an indoor–outdoor coupled heatwave evaluation framework using 1951–2021 meteorological data and the heat index as an overheating metric. By analyzing indoor overheating degree and overlap degree to characterize indoor–outdoor correlations, we concluded that different definitions of heatwaves lead to variations in identifications, while multidimensional indicators better capture extreme events. Heatwaves with prolonged duration and high intensity pose greater health risks. Although Beijing’s indoor thermal conditions are generally safe, peak heat indices during summer heatwaves exceed danger thresholds in some buildings, highlighting thermal safety concerns. The metrics for heatwave 6 and heatwave 7 optimally integrate indoor–outdoor characteristics with higher thresholds identifying more extreme events. These findings support the design of building thermal resilience, overheating early warnings, and climate-adaptive electrification strategies. Full article

Accurate terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) estimation is crucial for understanding land–atmosphere interactions, evaluating ecosystem functions, and supporting water resource management, particularly across climatically diverse regions. To address the limitations of traditional ET models, we propose a simple yet robust Sigmoid-RH model that characterizes the nonlinear relationship between relative humidity and ET. Unlike conventional approaches such as the Penman–Monteith or Priestley–Taylor models, the Sigmoid-RH model requires fewer inputs and is better suited for large-scale applications where data availability is limited. In this study, we applied the Sigmoid-RH model to estimate ET over mainland China from 2001 to 2018 by using satellite remote sensing and meteorological reanalysis data. Key driving inputs included air temperature (Ta), net radiation (Rn), relative humidity (RH), and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), all of which are readily available from public datasets. Validation at 20 flux tower sites showed strong performance, with R-square (R²) ranging from 0.26 to 0.93, Root Mean Squard Error (RMSE) from 0.5 to 1.3 mm/day, and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) from 0.16 to 0.91. The model performed best in mixed forests (KGE = 0.90) and weakest in shrublands (KGE = 0.27). Spatially, ET shows a clear increasing trend from northwest to southeast, closely aligned with climatic zones, with national mean annual ET of 560 mm/yr, ranging from less than 200 mm/yr in arid zones to over 1100 mm/yr in the humid south. Seasonally, ET peaked in summer due to monsoonal rainfall and vegetation growth, and was lowest in winter. Temporally, ET declined from 2001 to 2009 but increased from 2009 to 2018, influenced by changes in precipitation and NDVI. These findings confirm the applicability of the Sigmoid-RH model and highlight the importance of hydrothermal conditions and vegetation dynamics in regulating ET. By improving the accuracy and scalability of ET estimation, this model can provide practical implications for drought early warning systems, forest ecosystem management, and agricultural irrigation planning under changing climate conditions. Full article

It is difficult for a single feature in wind power data to fully reflect the multifactor coupling relationship with wind power, while the forecast model hyperparameters rely on empirical settings, which affects the prediction accuracy. In order to effectively predict the continuous power in the future time period, an ultra-short-term prediction model of wind power based on fused features and an improved convolutional neural network (CNN) is proposed. Firstly, the historical power data are decomposed using dynamic modal decomposition (DMD) to extract their modal features. Then, considering the influence of meteorological factors on power prediction, the historical meteorological data in the sample data are extracted using kernel principal component analysis (KPCA). Finally, the decomposed power modal and the extracted meteorological components are reconstructed into multivariate time-series features; the snow ablation optimisation algorithm (SAO) is used to optimise the convolutional neural network (CNN) for wind power prediction. The results show that the root-mean-square error of the prediction result is 31.9% lower than that of the undecomposed one after using DMD decomposition; for the prediction of the power of two different wind farms, the root-mean-square error of the improved CNN model is reduced by 39.8% and 30.6%, respectively, compared with that of the original model, which shows that the proposed model has a better prediction performance. Full article

Accurate estimation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) is of paramount importance for water resource management, especially in Mediterranean mountainous environments that are often data-scarce and highly sensitive to climate variability. This study evaluates the performance of four machine learning (ML) regression algorithms—Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)—in predicting daily PET using limited meteorological data from a high-altitude in Central Greece. The ML models were trained and tested using easily available meteorological inputs—temperature, relative humidity, and extraterrestrial solar radiation—on a dataset covering 11 years (2012–2023). Among the tested configurations, RFR showed the best performance (R² = 0.917, RMSE = 0.468 mm/d, MAPE = 0.119 mm/d) when all the above-mentioned input variables were included, closely approximating FAO56–PM outputs. Results bring to light the potential of machine learning models to reliably estimate PET in data-scarce conditions, with RFR outperforming others, whereas the inclusion of the easily estimated extraterrestrial radiation parameter in the ML models training enhances PET prediction accuracy. Full article