Search Results (4,815)

We re-conceptualize corporate debt default risk (EDF) as an emergent state variable of a coupled financial system and ask how capital-market opening reshapes its equilibrium. Extending the structural credit-risk framework with three interacting subsystem channels—external financing, investment efficiency, and information disclosure—we derive a closed-form result showing that an exogenous increase in liberalization strictly reduces the system-level corporate debt default probability through three complementary channels. We then exploit the staggered roll-out of China’s Shanghai–Hong Kong and Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect (HSGT) programs as a quasi-natural experiment on a panel of 21,351 firm-year observations over 2011–2023. A difference-in-differences (DID) estimator confirms a significant stabilizing effect on the firm’s market-implied default probability that is robust to an extensive battery of identification and specification checks; mechanism regressions confirm all three model-implied channels. The stabilizing effect is further amplified in firms facing greater environmental uncertainty and greater customer concentration—precisely the regimes in which our model predicts the underlying subsystem coupling to be most fragile. Our findings recast capital-market opening as a system-level intervention that simultaneously re-balances financing, investment, and information subsystems of the financial system, with implications for financial-stability policy in emerging economies. Full article

Accurate carbon price forecasting is essential for emission trading risk management and low-carbon investment decisions. In existing decomposition-prediction frameworks, secondary decomposition targets are typically selected based on statistical complexity rather than domain-informed causality, and standard Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-Transformer architectures discard the cell state that encodes long-term temporal memory. These limitations are particularly pronounced where energy-driven causal structures and regime-switching volatility coexist. This study proposes Causal State-driven Network (CaStNet), an intelligent forecasting framework with two core innovations. A Policy-Causality-guided Residual Secondary Decomposition (PCRSD) module replaces entropy-based criteria with Granger causality to select intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) exhibiting significant energy-carbon causal linkages for targeted variational mode decomposition (VMD). A Cell-State-Driven Dual-function Attention (CSDA) mechanism repurposes the LSTM cell state for simultaneously injecting long-term memory into the Transformer and employing the cell-state differential velocity as a volatility proxy to adaptively regulate Top-k attention sparsity. The Artificial Lemming Algorithm (ALA) globally co-optimizes decomposition dimensions and attention boundaries. A Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)–Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) interpretability analysis reveals horizon-dependent driver transitions from short-term autoregressive momentum to long-term energy fundamentals, uncovering threshold nonlinearities in energy-carbon transmission channels. Validation on the Shanghai market (2013–2025) achieves point-forecast RMSE = 0.8326 and R² = 0.9777, outperforming all twelve benchmark models. Cross-market testing on the Hubei market yields R² = 0.9487, and expanding-window five-fold cross-validation on the Shanghai dataset yields mean R² = 0.9704, jointly confirming generalization robustness. Full article

Data has become a strategic production factor, but the institutional logic underlying data’s tradability, priceability, and governability remains insufficiently theorized. In response, this study develops a coevolutionary framework that connects conventional factor market theory with digital political economy, platform theory, and comparative institutional analysis. This study adopts a conceptual–analytical research design, integrating three research methods: theory synthesis, comparative institutional analysis, and policy-process interpretation. Through theoretical synthesis, institutional comparison, and policy-process interpretation, it analyzes the conditions under which data circulation becomes feasible, lawful, and economically sustainable. In addition, by combining transaction data, exchange listings, property rights registrations, network indicators, and regional policy variations, it formulates testable propositions and an empirical agenda. The study finds that data factor markets do not emerge automatically with digitalization; their formation requires three mutually reinforcing conditions: technologically reducing search, verification, privacy protection, and contract enforcement costs; institutionally realizing a modular definition of rights and establishing compliance boundaries; and market demand from firms, public agencies, and research organizations generating use-case-specific value. Meanwhile, this study revises the three-stage model of market evolution as a contingent and testable pathway—from administrative pilot allocation, through hybrid state–market professionalization, to ecosystem-based cross-domain circulation. It also clarifies a closed-loop dynamic mechanism consisting of external shocks, internal strategic feedback, and adaptive governance, which jointly shapes market boundaries, pricing rules, and competition patterns. Full article

Risk assessment frameworks for renewable energy projects are predominantly designed for liberalised electricity markets, leaving state-dominated and single-buyer systems analytically underserved. This systematic literature review (SLR) synthesises 116 peer-reviewed studies (2015–2026) following a PRISMA-compliant, Kitchenham-guided protocol to identify and critically evaluate project-level risks and assessment methodologies across diverse electricity market structures. Three contributions are made: (i) a market-structure-differentiated risk taxonomy showing how risk profiles differ structurally across liberalised, hybrid, and single-buyer markets; (ii) the Integrated Risk Assessment Framework for Renewable Energy Projects (IRAF-REPs), a five-layer architecture connecting market structure context, risk category taxonomy, assessment methods, project lifecycle phases, and risk-register standards (ISO 31000/COSO); and (iii) a structured three-horizon future research agenda. Market/price risk (~68%) and policy/regulatory risk (~58%) dominate the reviewed literature, while counterparty/PPA risk—dominant in single-buyer contexts—is largely absent from quantitative frameworks. Monte Carlo simulation and real options analysis lead quantitative practice in liberalised-market studies; the hybrid Monte Carlo-System Dynamics (MC-SD) combination appears in fewer than 4% of studies despite its conceptual suitability for single-buyer contexts. Five research gaps are identified. Findings advance SDG 7, SDG 13, and SDG 9, with direct governance relevance for Indonesia/PLN and comparable Global South economies. Full article

Background/Objectives: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used by the public to seek health information, yet their accuracy in addressing common vaccine myths remains unclear. Sycophantic LLM behavior, where models align with rather than correct user-stated beliefs, poses specific risks in health contexts. Methods: We conducted an exploratory multi-vendor evaluation of three LLMs (GPT-5, Gemini 2.5 Flash, Claude Sonnet 4) using officially curated vaccination myths from Germany’s public health institution and two realistic user framings (curious skeptic, convinced believer). All model responses were independently evaluated by two blinded medical experts for misconception addressal (binary criterion applied to the response text), scientific accuracy, and communication clarity (5-point Likert scales). Additionally, blinded marketing experts ranked models for lay communication clarity. Flesch Reading Ease scores were computed for all outputs. Results: Across all myths, framings, and models (66 response items), both medical raters judged that all responses refuted the targeted misconception; no response affirmed or ignored a myth, including under the adversarial convinced believer framing. Scientific accuracy and clarity ratings were high and tightly clustered (median 4.0–4.5), with no combined score below 3 and substantial inter-rater agreement. Marketing experts independently ranked Gemini 2.5 Flash and GPT-5 highest for lay clarity. Readability analysis revealed generally low accessibility, particularly for the convinced believer framing and for Claude Sonnet 4 outputs. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that general-purpose LLMs can produce scientifically accurate, on-topic rebuttals to widely documented vaccine myths under realistic default conditions, although linguistic complexity and framing-sensitive style may limit accessibility. Whether such outputs change beliefs or behavior in hesitant individuals was not tested. With readability optimization, these outputs could serve as building blocks for myth-debunking tools, given prospective evaluation with behavioral endpoints. Full article

Carbon pricing is central to China’s low-carbon transition, and its effectiveness is tied to the carbon market’s links with commodities. This paper examines state-dependent return connectedness between China’s national carbon emission allowance (CEA) market and 20 representative commodity futures. Using daily data from July 2021 to February 2026, we combined quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) connectedness, the Baruník–Křehlík frequency decomposition, and wavelet-based coherence and quantile-based correlation methods to characterize return transmission across market states and frequencies. We obtained four findings. First, total connectedness is almost identical at the lower and upper tails (around 92%) and far higher than at the median (around 59%)—tail symmetry with median heterogeneity—and is dominated by the short-term band. Second, the CEA is largely decoupled from the commodity system under normal conditions and is drawn in only at the tails as a net receiver. Third, the two tails exhibit distinct event contexts, with downside episodes associated with external financial shocks and upside episodes associated with domestic policy expectations. Fourth, the CEA tends to precede high-emission commodities at long horizons. These results suggest that institutional and policy factors continue to play an important role in shaping CEA price dynamics, with implications for carbon market regulation and cross-market hedging. Full article

Currently, a major challenge for European economies is the volatility of electricity prices, which affects costs borne by households and firms, as well as inflation, economic competitiveness, and energy security. Although the literature has analysed various determinants of electricity prices, there is still limited evidence on the comparative short- and long-term effects of fiscal factors, the natural gas market, and the transition to renewable energy within the Member States of the European Union. This paper analyses the relationship between household electricity prices and a set of economic, climate, and fiscal determinants in EU countries over the period 2017–2025, using panel data econometric methods. The methodology includes pooled OLS models, fixed and random effects estimators, unit root tests, cross-sectional dependence (Pesaran CD) tests, cointegration analysis, and a Panel ARDL-PMG framework, complemented by robustness checks using FMOLS and DOLS-type estimators. The results indicate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between the analysed variables, as well as significant cross-sectional dependence among countries, reflecting common shocks and interconnected dynamics in EU energy markets. Fixed effects models are used as the baseline specification, while PMG-ARDL and other dynamic estimators are employed for robustness analysis. The results are consistent across different econometric specifications. The conclusions highlight the dominant role of Household Gas Prices as the main determinant of electricity prices, while energy productivity shows a positive association with electricity price levels. Climate variables exhibit weak and unstable effects, and environmental taxes do not show statistically significant impacts within the sample period. Overall, the findings underline the importance of energy market dynamics, structural factors, and the ongoing energy transition in shaping electricity price developments in the European Union. Full article

Under the background of the steady advancement of the dual-carbon goal and the increasing improvement of the green financial system, green supply chain finance is like a bridge that closely links the capital of the financial market and the low-carbon transformation of the real economy. The following article chooses A-shares traded enterprises from 2014 to 2024 as the study sample, adopts multi-dimensional empirical methods to study the association in green supply chain finance along with corporate emission levels, and analyzes its transmission mechanisms and heterogeneity. The findings demonstrate that green supply chain finance has a substantial inhibitory impact with enterprise emission levels, a finding that remains robust across a series of tests, including parallel trend tests, placebo tests, and propensity score matching (PSM). Mechanism analysis demonstrates that green supply chain finance can indirectly reduce carbon emission intensity by improving both financing levels and supply chain stability. Looking at heterogeneity, we find that the emission-reducing effect tends to be stronger among state-owned firms, non-heavy polluters, enterprises with higher total factor productivity, and enterprises that are more financially oriented. Our theoretical value lies in clarifying the direct relationship between green supply chain finance and micro-enterprise carbon emissions, identifying two differentiated intermediary transmission paths, and defining the boundary conditions of the policy role across multiple dimensions, thereby better coordinating and promoting the digital and low-carbon transformation of enterprises. Full article

Marine ecosystem degradation may reduce state revenues, increase recovery spending, and weaken fiscal sustainability, yet Indonesia does not yet have a routine governance mechanism that links marine natural capital valuation to fiscal-risk assessment in the State Budget Financial Note. This article develops a governance design, Blue Natural Capital Value at Risk (BNC-VaR), to translate changes in marine ecosystem conditions into fiscal-exposure signals for Indonesian public finance. Ecological condition indicators, such as fish-stock status, coral-reef condition, and mangrove extent, are converted into traceable valuation parameters and then into structured outputs, including fiscal-exposure scenarios, budget-relevance notes, and medium-term fiscal-sustainability readings across revenue, expenditure, deficit, and financing channels. The design treats ecological change as affecting the fiscal position through mediated and disclosable pathways rather than automatic causal effects. It adapts Value at Risk as a risk logic for public fiscal governance rather than as a conventional market-based probabilistic measure. Using theory synthesis and a model-paper approach across six analytical stages, the study produces five design principles, four formal propositions, and a five-component institutional architecture, with the Directorate General of State Assets Management positioned as a valuation custodian. As a conceptual contribution, BNC-VaR offers an operational architecture and implementation roadmap for future empirical testing in Indonesia and other archipelagic or marine-resource-dependent fiscal systems. Full article

Drug recall is a critical regulatory mechanism implemented to protect public health by removing defective, unsafe, or non-compliant pharmaceutical products from the market. Despite stringent regulatory approval processes, issues related to manufacturing defects, contamination, labeling errors, stability failures, and post-marketing safety concerns may lead to drug recalls. Regulatory authorities across the world, including the Central Drugs Standard Control Organization (CDSCO), the United States Food and Drug Administration (US FDA), the European Medicines Agency (EMA), and other national agencies, have developed structured recall guidelines and rapid alert systems to ensure timely withdrawal of defective products. Drug recalls are typically classified based on the level of health risk and may be executed at different levels of the distribution chain, including wholesale, retail, and consumer levels. Effective recall management involves risk assessment, recall communication, product traceability, documentation, and recall effectiveness checks. Pharmacovigilance systems also play an important role in identifying adverse drug reactions and quality defects that may lead to product recalls. This review article provides a comprehensive overview of drug recall systems, including causes of recalls, regulatory frameworks in India and other countries, recall classification, recall procedures, rapid alert systems, and global recall trends. The article also discusses challenges in recall implementation and provides recommendations to strengthen drug recall systems and regulatory coordination worldwide. The review additionally summarizes major official sources of recall information, including recall alerts, safety communications, and regulatory databases maintained by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), EMA, CDSCO, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), and World Health Organization (WHO), and provides a comparative global perspective on contemporary pharmaceutical recall practices. Full article

Stable interactions among electricity, carbon allowance, and fossil fuel markets are essential for sustainable energy transition, because excessive cross-market risk transmission may affect energy affordability, carbon-price credibility, and low-carbon investment signals. This study provides comparative evidence on dynamic connectedness, tail-state shock responses, and return-based complexity in representative Chinese and European benchmark markets. Using daily market data from the Wind database for November 2021–January 2026, the empirical framework combines time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR), quantile vector autoregression and quantile impulse response functions (QVAR/QIRFs), and rolling multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA). The results show that the European benchmark system has a higher absolute connectedness level than the Chinese benchmark system: the full-sample mean total connectedness index (TCI) is 18.75 in Europe and 5.63 in China, while the crisis-period mean TCIs are 25.19 and 12.12, respectively. Post-peak adjustment depends on the reversion metric used: China shows a faster initial half-life decline from the crisis peak, whereas reversion to lower region-specific connectedness thresholds depends on the selected benchmark. Natural-gas-shock QIRFs indicate stronger upper-tail persistence in Europe, whereas China is characterized mainly by short-run directional divergence; supplementary coal-, oil-, and carbon-shock checks show that response patterns are shock-source-dependent. Electricity-return multifractal spectrum width (MFW) does not show stable full-sample explanatory power for TCI, but it provides stage-dependent auxiliary diagnostic information. These findings provide a comparative diagnostic framework for monitoring cross-market systemic risk and supporting sustainability-oriented energy-market governance under low-carbon transition. Full article

This article analyses the transformation of the competitiveness of the European Union in the context of geopolitical fragmentation, geo-economic rivalry and the growing importance of economic security in contemporary economic governance. The article argues that the traditional efficiency-oriented understanding of competitiveness, associated primarily with productivity growth, market efficiency and trade openness, is increasingly complemented by a resilience-oriented governance framework that emphasizes strategic autonomy, technological capabilities, economic security and long-term adaptive resilience. Using a conceptually oriented qualitative research design based on interpretive analysis and analytically focused comparison, we integrate knowledge from studies of competitiveness, political economy, geo-economics and European economic governance. The research draws on academic literature primarily available in the Web of Science and Scopus databases, EU strategic documents and legislation, and selected aggregated indicators related to productivity, innovation, trade openness, technological development and sustainability. The findings show that geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain vulnerabilities, technological competition and strategic dependencies are increasingly changing the structural foundations of European competitiveness. Innovation and technological capabilities remain key determinants of long-term competitiveness, but their strategic importance is increasingly linked to resilience, technological sovereignty and economic security. The results also show that the European Union is gradually moving towards a hybrid governance model that combines market openness with strategic coordination, industrial policy and resilience-oriented adaptation. At the same time, significant asymmetries between Member States continue to limit the EU’s ability to adapt in a coordinated manner. The article contributes to current debates on competitiveness by establishing an integrated analytical framework linking competitiveness, resilience, economic security, strategic autonomy and sustainable development in the context of geo-economic transformation. Full article

Under China’s dual carbon goals, low-carbon transition risk has become an important source of corporate sustainability risk and climate-related financial risk. This study treats the carbon emissions trading pilot (CETP) as a quasi-natural experiment and uses panel data of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2006 to 2024 to examine whether carbon trading reduces corporate low-carbon transition risk (CTR). CTR is measured as the sensitivity of firm stock returns to return shocks from a stranded-asset portfolio, thereby capturing market-implied exposure to high-carbon asset revaluation risk. The results show that the CETP significantly reduces corporate CTR. Economically, the fully controlled DID coefficient is about one tenth of the standard deviation of CTR, indicating a meaningful decline in firms’ exposure to stranded-asset shocks. The conclusion remains robust after using alternative CTR measures, shortening the sample period, applying staggered DID based on actual pilot launch years, controlling for province-level time-varying factors and province-specific trends, controlling for concurrent green policies, conducting placebo tests, applying PSM-DID, and retaining the instrumental-variable test. Mechanism tests provide evidence consistent with a carbon performance channel. Evidence on capital expenditure is interpreted cautiously because Capex is a broad proxy for investment intensity and asset adjustment rather than a direct measure of green upgrading. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the risk-reducing effect is stronger among non-state-owned firms, high-tech firms, and firms located in eastern China. These findings suggest that carbon pricing can serve not only as an emissions-reduction instrument but also as a mechanism for mitigating climate-related financial risk. Full article

This study examines how client ESG performance affects supplier total factor productivity (TFP) from a knowledge spillover perspective, using matched client–supplier–year data for Chinese A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2023. The results show that client ESG significantly improves supplier TFP; specifically, a one-unit increase in client ESG is associated with an average increase of approximately 8.3% in supplier TFP. These results remain robust across a series of robustness tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that client ESG enhances supplier productivity through three knowledge spillover channels: technical assistance, management sharing, and innovation induction. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that this positive effect is more pronounced in long-term cooperative relationships, among clients with stronger market power, for state-owned suppliers, and when clients and suppliers have aligned ownership structures. Further analysis shows that the positive effect of client ESG persists for at least three fiscal years and is more pronounced in industries characterized by lower volatility. These findings suggest that policymakers and firms should strengthen supply chain ESG governance to promote knowledge spillovers and improve productivity. Full article

Vertically linked commodity markets—global futures, regional spot, and farm-gate prices—transmit information through directed cross-market channels whose strength varies with latent volatility regimes. Standard deep learning forecasters absorb both the directed cross-market dependence and the regime dependence of intrinsic-mode-aligned latent components into shared model weights, with no explicit architectural mechanism that exposes either as an inspectable structure. This paper proposes HVB-RA, a modular framework that combines two such mechanisms with a per-tier Variational Mode Decomposition and bidirectional LSTM backbone: (i) a directed cross-market attention layer in which the upstream-to-downstream topology is supplied from domain knowledge and the time-varying upstream-source attention intensities at the farm-gate tier (the regional-spot tier, with a single upstream key, reduces algebraically to a fixed residual upstream fusion) are extracted from data, and (ii) a regime-informed modal-weighting layer that mixes two trainable softmax weight profiles over IMF-aligned latent components through a filtered Markov-switching state probability fitted in a separate stage. An auxiliary post hoc projection enforces an exact linear constraint defined by long-run sample-mean ratios across tiers; the paper does not claim that these descriptive ratios are cointegrating relations or equilibrium coefficients. The framework is evaluated on three tiers of daily natural-rubber prices spanning 2038 trading days, against three external benchmarks (random walk, ARIMA(2,0,2), and an exogenous-only LSTM) and a contemporary neural hierarchical-interpolation forecaster (NHITS). Root mean squared error is reported per tier-horizon cell; a decision-aware income-smoothing metric quantifies the operational value of $h=5$ farm-gate forecasts under a 5-day selling rule; and a within-method comparison evaluates the marginal contribution of the auxiliary constraint projection. On the present single-regime test window, HVB-RA attains a lower point error than the contemporary NHITS baseline at every tier-horizon cell, while no method—including HVB-RA—improves on the random-walk floor at most cells; the regime-conditional components of the architecture are not identifiable because every calibration and test origin is classified as a high-volatility regime by the trained Markov-switching model. The paper contributes to machine learning and knowledge extraction by demonstrating how time-varying upstream-source attention intensities at the farm-gate tier and regime-dependent latent-component-weight profiles—two forms of latent structure typically absorbed into model weights—can be exposed as explicit, inspectable, and individually testable components of a multi-tier forecasting architecture, and by providing a reproducibility package documenting the conditions under which each component is expected to be identifiable. Full article