Search Results (5,047)

Emotion analysis based on electroencephalogram (EEG) sensors is pivotal for human–machine interaction yet faces key challenges in spatio-temporal feature fusion and cross-band and brain-region integration from multi-channel sensor-derived signals. This paper proposes MB-MSTFNet, a novel framework for EEG emotion recognition. The model constructs a 3D tensor to encode band–space–time correlations of sensor data, explicitly modeling frequency-domain dynamics and spatial distributions of EEG sensors across brain regions. A multi-scale CNN-Inception module extracts hierarchical spatial features via diverse convolutional kernels and pooling operations, capturing localized sensor activations and global brain network interactions. Bi-directional GRUs (BiGRUs) model temporal dependencies in sensor time-series, adept at capturing long-range dynamic patterns. Multi-head self-attention highlights critical time windows and brain regions by assigning adaptive weights to relevant sensor channels, suppressing noise from non-contributory electrodes. Experiments on the DEAP dataset, containing multi-channel EEG sensor recordings, show that MB-MSTFNet achieves 96.80 ± 0.92% valence accuracy, 98.02 ± 0.76% arousal accuracy for binary classification tasks, and 92.85 ± 1.45% accuracy for four-class classification. Ablation studies validate that feature fusion, bidirectional temporal modeling, and multi-scale mechanisms significantly enhance performance by improving feature complementarity. This sensor-driven framework advances affective computing by integrating spatio-temporal dynamics and multi-band interactions of EEG sensor signals, enabling efficient real-time emotion recognition. Full article

The uncertainties arising from high renewable energy penetration on both the generation and demand sides pose significant challenges to distribution network security. Smart microgrids are considered an effective way to solve this problem. Existing studies exhibit limitations in prediction accuracy, Alternating Current (AC) power flow modeling, and integration with optimization frameworks. This paper proposes a closed-loop technical framework combining high-confidence interval prediction, second-order cone convex relaxation, and robust optimization to facilitate renewable energy integration in distribution networks via smart microgrid technology. First, a hybrid prediction model integrating Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Quantile Regression (QR) is designed to extract multi-frequency characteristics of time-series data, generating adaptive prediction intervals that accommodate individualized decision-making preferences. Second, a second-order cone relaxation method transforms the AC power flow optimization problem into a mixed-integer second-order cone programming (MISOCP) model. Finally, a robust optimization method considering source–load uncertainties is developed. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed approach reduces prediction errors by 21.15%, decreases node voltage fluctuations by 16.71%, and reduces voltage deviation at maximum offset nodes by 17.36%. This framework significantly mitigates voltage violation risks in distribution networks with large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic systems. Full article

Machine learning modeling is a valuable tool for gap-filling or prediction, and its performance is typically evaluated using standard metrics. To enable more precise assessments for time-series data, this study emphasizes the importance of considering time-series consistency, which can be evaluated through amplitude—specifically, the interquartile range and the lower bound of the band in gap-filled time series. To test this hypothesis, a gap-filling technique was applied using long-term (~6 years) high-frequency flux and meteorological data collected at four different levels (1.5, 60, 140, and 300 m above sea level) on a ~300 m tall flux tower. This study focused on turbulent kinetic energy among several variables, which is important for estimating sensible and latent heat fluxes and net ecosystem exchange. Five ensemble machine learning algorithms were selected and trained on three different datasets. Among several modeling scenarios, the stacking model with a dataset combined with derivative data produced the best metrics for predicting turbulent kinetic energy. Although the metrics before and after gap-filling reported fewer differences among the scenarios, large distortions were found in the consistency of the time series in terms of amplitude. These findings underscore the importance of evaluating time-series consistency alongside traditional metrics, not only to accurately assess modeling performance but also to ensure reliability in downstream applications such as forecasting, climate modeling, and energy estimation. Full article

Vegetation dynamics are complexly influenced by multiple factors such as climate, human activities, and topography. In recent years, the frequency, intensity, and diversity of human activities have increased, placing substantial pressure on the growth of vegetation. Arid and semi-arid regions are particularly sensitive to climate change, and climate change and large-scale ecological restoration have led to significant changes in the dynamic of dryland vegetation. However, few studies have explored the nonlinear relationships between these factors and vegetation dynamic. In this study, we integrated trend analysis (using the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen estimation) and machine learning algorithms (XGBoost-SHAP model) based on long time-series remote sensing data from 2001 to 2020 to quantify the nonlinear response patterns and threshold effects of bioclimatic variables, topographic features, soil attributes, and anthropogenic factors on vegetation dynamic. The results revealed the following key findings: (1) The kNDVI in the study area showed an overall significant increasing trend (p < 0.01) during the observation period, of which 26.7% of the area showed a significant increase. (2) The water content index (Bio 23, 19.6%), the change in land use (15.2%), multi-year average precipitation (pre, 15.0%), population density (13.2%), and rainfall seasonality (Bio 15, 10.9%) were the key factors driving the dynamic change of vegetation, with the combined contribution of natural factors amounting to 64.3%. (3) Among the topographic factors, altitude had a more significant effect on vegetation dynamics, with higher altitude regions less likely to experience vegetation greening. Both natural and anthropogenic factors exhibited nonlinear responses and interactive effects, contributing to the observed dynamic trends. This study provides valuable insights into the driving mechanisms behind the condition of vegetation in arid and semi-arid regions of China and, by extension, in other arid regions globally. Full article

The highly stochastic nature of rainfall presents significant challenges for the accurate prediction of its time series. To enhance the prediction performance of non-stationary rainfall time series, this study proposes a hybrid deep learning forecasting framework—VMD-IWMA-BiLSTM—that integrates Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), Improved Whale Migration Algorithm (IWMA), and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory network (BiLSTM). Firstly, VMD is employed to decompose the original rainfall series into multiple modes, extracting Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) with more stable frequency characteristics. Secondly, IWMA is utilized to globally optimize multiple hyperparameters of the BiLSTM model, enhancing its ability to capture complex nonlinear relationships and long-term dependencies. Finally, experimental validation is conducted using daily rainfall data from 2020 to 2024 at the Xinzheng National Meteorological Observatory. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms traditional models such as LSTM, ARIMA, SVM, and LSSVM in terms of prediction accuracy. This research provides new insights and effective technical pathways for improving rainfall time series prediction accuracy and addressing the challenges posed by high randomness. Full article

Amidst the escalating demand for high-precision structural health monitoring in large-scale engineering applications, carbon fiber-reinforced polymer fiber Bragg grating (CFRP-FBG) sensors have emerged as a pivotal technology for fatigue life evaluation, owing to their exceptional sensitivity and intrinsic immunity to electromagnetic interference. A time-series predictive architecture based on long short-term memory (LSTM) networks is developed in this work to facilitate intelligent fatigue life assessment of structures subjected to complex cyclic loading by capturing and modeling critical spectral characteristics of CFRP-FBG sensors, specifically the side-mode suppression ratio and main-lobe peak-to-valley ratio. To enhance model robustness and generalization, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to isolate the most salient spectral features, followed by data preprocessing via normalization and model optimization through the integration of the Adam optimizer and Dropout regularization strategy. Relative to conventional Backpropagation (BP) neural networks, the LSTM model demonstrated a substantial improvement in predicting the side-mode suppression ratio, achieving a 61.62% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) and a 34.99% decrease in root mean squared error (RMSE), thereby markedly enhancing robustness to outliers and ensuring greater overall prediction stability. In predicting the peak-to-valley ratio, the model attained a notable 24.9% decrease in mean absolute error (MAE) and a 21.2% reduction in root mean squared error (RMSE), thereby substantially curtailing localized inaccuracies. The forecasted confidence intervals were correspondingly narrower and exhibited diminished fluctuation, highlighting the LSTM architecture’s enhanced proficiency in capturing nonlinear dynamics and modeling temporal dependencies. The proposed method manifests considerable practical engineering relevance and delivers resilient intelligent assistance for the seamless implementation of CFRP-FBG sensor technology in structural health monitoring and fatigue life prognostics. Full article

In the context of intelligent coal mine safety monitoring, an integrated prediction and early-warning method named MTGNN-Bayesian-IF-DBSCAN (Multi-Task Graph Neural Network–Bayesian Optimization–Isolation Forest–Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise) is proposed to address the challenges of gas concentration prediction and anomaly detection in coal mining faces. The MTGNN (Multi-Task Graph Neural Network) is first employed to model the spatiotemporal coupling characteristics of gas concentration and wind speed data. By constructing a graph structure based on sensor spatial dependencies and utilizing temporal convolutional layers to capture long short-term time-series features, the high-precision dynamic prediction of gas concentrations is achieved via the MTGNN. Experimental results indicate that the MTGNN outperforms comparative algorithms, such as CrossGNN and FourierGNN, in prediction accuracy, with the mean absolute error (MAE) being as low as 0.00237 and the root mean square error (RMSE) maintained below 0.0203 across different sensor locations (T0, T1, T2). For anomaly detection, a Bayesian optimization framework is introduced to adaptively optimize the fusion weights of IF (Isolation Forest) and DBSCAN (Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise). Through defining the objective function as the F1 score and employing Gaussian process surrogate models, the optimal weight combination (w_if = 0.43, w_dbscan = 0.52) is determined, achieving an F1 score of 1.0. By integrating original concentration data and residual features, gas anomalies are effectively identified by the proposed method, with the detection rate reaching a range of 93–96% and the false alarm rate controlled below 5%. Multidimensional analysis diagrams (e.g., residual distribution, 45° diagonal error plot, and boxplots) further validate the model’s robustness in different spatial locations, particularly in capturing abrupt changes and low-concentration anomalies. This study provides a new technical pathway for intelligent gas warning in coal mines, integrating spatiotemporal modeling, multi-algorithm fusion, and statistical optimization. The proposed framework not only enhances the accuracy and reliability of gas prediction and anomaly detection but also demonstrates potential for generalization to other industrial sensor networks. Full article

In recent years, Transformer-based methods have shown full potential in power load forecasting problems. However, their computational cost is high, while it is difficult to capture the global characteristics of the time series. When the forecasting time length is long, the overall shift of the forecasting trend often occurs. Therefore, this paper proposes a gray relation analysis–frequency-enhanced decomposition transformer (GRA-FEDformer) method for forecasting power loads in power systems. Firstly, considering the impact of different weather factors on power loads, the correlation between various factors and power loads was analyzed using the GRA method to screen out the high-correlation factors as model inputs. Secondly, a frequency decomposition method for long short-time-scale components was utilized. Its combination with the transformer-based model can give the deep learning model an ability to simultaneously capture the fluctuating behavior of the short time scale and the overall trend of changes in the long time scale in power loads. The experimental results show that the proposed method had better forecasting performance than the other methods for a one-year dataset in a region of Morocco. In particular, the advantages of the proposed method were more obvious in the forecasting task with a longer forecasting length. Full article

Wind power output sequences exhibit strong randomness and intermittency characteristics; traditional single forecasting models struggle to capture the internal features of sequences and are highly susceptible to interference from high-frequency noise and predictive accuracy is still notably poor at the peaks where the power curve undergoes abrupt changes. To address the poor fitting at peaks, a short-term wind power forecasting method based on the improved Informer model is proposed. First, the temporal convolutional network (TCN) is introduced to enhance the model’s ability to capture regional segment features along the temporal dimension, enhancing the model’s receptive field to address wind power fluctuation under varying environmental conditions. Next, a discrete cosine transform (DCT) is employed for adaptive modeling of frequency dependencies between channels, converting the time series data into frequency domain representations to extract its frequency features. These frequency domain features are then weighted using a channel attention mechanism to improve the model’s ability to capture peak features and resist noise interference. Finally, the Informer generative decoder is used to output the power prediction results, this enables the model to simultaneously leverage neighboring temporal segment features and long-range inter-temporal dependencies for future wind-power prediction, thereby substantially improving the fitting accuracy at power-curve peaks. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model; compared with other models, the proposed approach reduces MAE by 9.14–42.31% and RMSE by 12.57–47.59%. Full article

Accurate prediction of landslide-induced displacement is essential for the structural integrity and operational safety of buildings and infrastructure situated in geologically unstable regions. This study introduces a novel hybrid predictive framework that synergistically integrates Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with Temporal Convolutional Neural Networks (TCNs), herein referred to as the GTCN model, to forecast displacement at building monitoring points subject to landslide activity. The proposed methodology is validated using time-series monitoring data collected from the slope adjacent to the Zhongliang Reservoir in Wuxi County, Chongqing, an area where slope instability poses a significant threat to nearby structural assets. Experimental results demonstrate the GTCN model’s superior predictive performance, particularly under challenging conditions of incomplete or sparsely sampled data. The model proves highly effective in accurately characterizing both abrupt fluctuations within the displacement time series and capturing long-term deformation trends. Furthermore, the GTCN framework outperforms comparative hybrid models based on Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and GPR, with its advantage being especially pronounced in data-limited scenarios. It also exhibits enhanced capability for temporal feature extraction relative to conventional imputation-based forecasting strategies like forward-filling. By effectively modeling both nonlinear trends and uncertainty within displacement sequences, the GTCN framework offers a robust and scalable solution for landslide-related risk assessment and early warning applications. Its applicability to building safety monitoring underscores its potential contribution to geotechnical hazard mitigation and resilient infrastructure management. Full article

For effective groundwater resource management, it is essential to model the dynamic behaviour of aquifers in response to rainfall. Here, a methodological approach using a recurrent neural network, specifically a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, is used to model groundwater levels of the shallow porous aquifer in Southern Italy. This aquifer is recharged by local rainfall, which exhibits minimal variation across the catchment in terms of volume and temporal distribution. To gain a deeper understanding of the complex interactions between precipitation and groundwater levels within the aquifer, we used water level data from six wells. Although these wells were not directly correlated in terms of individual measurements, they were geographically located within the same shallow aquifer and exhibited a similar hydrogeological response. The trained model uses two variables, rainfall and groundwater levels, which are usually easily available. This approach allowed the model, during the training phase, to capture the general relationships and common dynamics present across the different time series of wells. This methodology was employed despite the geographical distinctions between the wells within the aquifer and the variable duration of their observed time series (ranging from 27 to 45 years). The results obtained were significant: the global model, trained with the simultaneous integration of data from all six wells, not only led to superior performance metrics but also highlighted its remarkable generalization capability in representing the hydrogeological system. Full article

Apiculture is among the most weather-dependent sectors of agriculture; however, quantifying the impact of meteorological factors remains challenging. Beehive weight has long been recognized as an important indicator of colony health, strength, and food availability, as well as foraging activity. Atmospheric influences on hive weight dynamics have been a subject of research since the early 20th century. This study aims to estimate hourly hive weight variation by applying linear time-series models to hive weight data collected from active apiaries during intensive foraging periods, considering atmospheric predictors. We employed a rolling 24 h forward ARIMAX and SARIMAX model, incorporating meteorological variables as exogenous factors. The median estimates for the study period resulted in model RMSE values of 0.1 and 0.3 kg/h. From numerous meteorological variables, the hourly maximum temperature was found to be the most significant predictor. ARIMAX model results also exhibited a strong diurnal cycle, pointing out the weather-driven seasonality of hive weight variations. Full article

The mapping and monitoring of coastal regions are critical to ensure their sustainable use and viability in the long term. Delineation of coastlines is becoming increasingly important in the light of climate change and rising sea levels. However, many coastlines are highly dynamic; therefore, mono-temporal assessments of coastal ecosystems and coastlines are mere snapshots of limited practical value for space-based planning. Understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of coastal ecosystem boundaries is important to inform ecosystem management but also for a meaningful delineation of the high-water mark, which is used as a benchmark for coastal spatial planning in South Africa. This research aimed to use hyper-temporal Sentinel-2 imagery to extract ecological zones on the coast of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 613 images, collected between 2019 and 2023, were classified into four distinct coastal ecological zones—vegetation, bare, surf, and water—using a Random Forest model. Across all classifications, the percentage of each of the four classes’ occurrence per pixel over time was determined. This enabled the identification of ecosystem locations, spatially static ecosystem boundaries, and the occurrence of ecosystem boundaries with a more dynamic location over time, such as the non-permanent vegetation zone of the foredune area as well as the intertidal zone. The overall accuracy of the model was 98.13%, while the Kappa coefficient was 0.975, with user’s and producer’s accuracies ranging between 93.02% and 100%. These results indicate that cloud-based analysis of Sentinel-2 time series holds potential not just for delineating coastal ecosystem boundaries, but also for enhancing the understanding of spatio-temporal dynamics between them, to inform meaningful environmental management, spatial planning, and climate adaptation strategies. Full article

Dams play a vital role in securing water and electricity supplies for households and industry, and they contribute significantly to flood protection. Regular monitoring of dam deformations holds fundamental socio-economic and ecological importance. Traditionally, this has relied on time-consuming in situ techniques that offer either high spatial or temporal resolution. Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) addresses these limitations, enabling high-resolution monitoring in both domains. Sensors such as TerraSAR-X (TSX) and Sentinel-1 (S-1) have proven effective for deformation analysis with millimeter accuracy. Combining TSX and S-1 datasets enhances monitoring capabilities by leveraging the high spatial resolution of TSX with the broad coverage of S-1. This improves monitoring by increasing PS point density, reducing revisit intervals, and facilitating the detection of environmental deformation drivers. This study aims to investigate two objectives: first, we evaluate the benefits of a spatially and temporally densified PS time series derived from TSX and S-1 data for detecting radial deformations in individual dam segments. To support this, we developed the TSX2StaMPS toolbox, integrated into the updated snap2stamps workflow for generating single-master interferogram stacks using TSX data. Second, we identify deformation drivers using water level and temperature as exogenous variables. The five-year study period (2017–2022) was conducted on a gravity dam in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, which was divided into logically connected segments. The results were compared to in situ data obtained from pendulum measurements. Linear models demonstrated a fair agreement between the combined time series and the pendulum data ($R^2$ = 0.5; MAE = 2.3 mm). Temperature was identified as the primary long-term driver of periodic deformations of the gravity dam. Following the filling of the reservoir, the variance in the PS data increased from 0.9 mm to 3.9 mm in RMSE, suggesting that water level changes are more responsible for short-term variations in the SAR signal. Upon full impoundment, the mean deformation amplitude decreased by approximately 1.7 mm toward the downstream side of the dam, which was attributed to the higher water pressure. The last five meters of water level rise resulted in higher feature importance due to interaction effects with temperature. The study concludes that integrating multiple PS datasets for dam monitoring is beneficial particularly for dams where few PS points can be identified using one sensor or where pendulum systems are not installed. Identifying the drivers of deformation is feasible and can be incorporated into existing monitoring frameworks. Full article

In this paper, we aim to provide a new algorithm for managing financial risk in portfolios containing multiple high-volatility assets. We assess the variability of volatility with the Volterra model, and we construct an estimator of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) function using quantile regression. Because of its long-memory property, the Volterra model is particularly useful in this domain of financial time series data analysis. It constitutes a good alternative to the standard approach of Black–Scholes models. From the weighted asymmetric loss function, we construct a new estimator of the VaR function usable in Multi-Functional Volterra Time Series Model (MFVTSM). The constructed estimator highlights the multi-functional nature of the Volterra–Gaussian process. Mathematically, we derive the asymptotic consistency of the estimator through the precision of the leading term of its convergence rate. Through an empirical experiment, we examine the applicability of the proposed algorithm. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of the estimator through an application to real financial data. Full article