Search Results (661)

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in developed countries. Predicting its progression is crucial for preventing late-stage AMD, as it is an irreversible retinal disease. Both genetic factors and retinal images are instrumental in diagnosing and predicting AMD progression. Previous studies have explored automated diagnosis using single fundus images and genetic variants, but they often fail to utilize the valuable longitudinal data from multiple visits. Longitudinal retinal images offer a dynamic view of disease progression, yet standard Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models assume consistent time intervals between training and testing, limiting their effectiveness in real-world settings. To address this limitation, we propose time-varied Long Short-Term Memory (TV-LSTM), which accommodates irregular time intervals in longitudinal data. Our innovative approach enables the integration of both longitudinal fundus images and AMD-associated genetic variants for more precise progression prediction. Our TV-LSTM model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.9479 and an AUC-PR of 0.8591 for predicting late AMD within two years, using data from four visits with varying time intervals. Full article

Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks is critical for disaster preparedness and risk mitigation. While traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have long served as the backbone of operational forecasting, they face limitations in computational cost and sensitivity to initial conditions. In recent years, deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising alternative, offering data-driven modeling capabilities for capturing nonlinear spatiotemporal patterns. This paper presents a comprehensive review of DL-based approaches for TC track forecasting. We categorize all DL-based TC tracking models according to the architecture, including recurrent neural networks (RNNs), convolutional neural networks (CNNs), Transformers, graph neural networks (GNNs), generative models, and Fourier-based operators. To enable rigorous performance comparison, we introduce a Unified Geodesic Distance Error (UGDE) metric that standardizes evaluation across diverse studies and lead times. Based on this metric, we conduct a critical comparison of state-of-the-art models and identify key insights into their relative strengths, limitations, and suitable application scenarios. Building on this framework, we conduct a critical cross-model analysis that reveals key trends, performance disparities, and architectural tradeoffs. Our analysis also highlights several persistent challenges, such as long-term forecast degradation, limited physical integration, and generalization to extreme events, pointing toward future directions for developing more robust and operationally viable DL models for TC track forecasting. To support reproducibility and facilitate standardized evaluation, we release an open-source UGDE conversion tool on GitHub. Full article

With the increasing scale of industrial devices and the growing complexity of multi-source heterogeneous sensor data, traditional methods struggle to address challenges in fault detection, data security, and trustworthiness. Ensuring tamper-proof data storage and improving prediction accuracy for imbalanced anomaly detection for potential deployment in the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) remain critical issues. This study proposes a blockchain-powered Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM)–Attention hybrid model: an LSTM-based Encoder–Attention–Decoder (LEAD) for industrial device anomaly detection. The model utilizes an encoder–attention–decoder architecture for processing multivariate time series data generated by industrial sensors and smart contracts for automated on-chain data verification and tampering alerts. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that the LEAD achieves an $F_{0.1}$ score of 0.96, outperforming baseline models (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN): 0.90; LSTM: 0.94; and Bi-directional LSTM (Bi-LSTM, 0.94)). We simulate the system using a private FISCO-BCOS network with a multi-node setup to demonstrate contract execution, anomaly data upload, and tamper alert triggering. The blockchain system successfully detects unauthorized access and data tampering, offering a scalable solution for device monitoring. Full article

Selecting an appropriate model for discharge simulation remains a fundamental challenge in modeling. While artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely accepted due to detecting streamflow patterns, they require large datasets for efficient training. However, when short-term datasets are available, training ANNs becomes problematic. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models offer a promising alternative; however, severe volatility, nonlinearity, and trends in hydrological time series can still lead to significant errors. To address these challenges, this study introduces a new adaptive hybrid model, ARIMA-iGARCH, designed to account volatility, variance inconsistency, and nonlinear behavior in short-term hydrological datasets. We apply the model to four hourly discharge time series from the Schwarzbach River at the Nauheim gauge in Hesse, Germany, under the assumption of normally distributed residuals. The results demonstrate that the specialized parameter estimation method achieves lower complexity and higher accuracy. For the four events analyzed, R² values reached 0.99, 0.96, 0.99, and 0.98; RMSE values were 0.031, 0.091, 0.023, and 0.052. By delivering accurate short-term discharge predictions, the ARIMA-iGARCH model provides a basis for enhancing water resource planning and flood risk management. Overall, the model significantly improves modeling long memory, nonlinear, nonstationary shifts in short-term hydrological datasets by effectively capturing fluctuations in variance. Full article

This study analyzes air pollution time-series big data to assess stationarity, seasonal patterns, and the performance of machine learning models in forecasting PM2.5 concentrations. Fifty-two low-cost sensors (LCS) were deployed across Krakow city and its surroundings (Poland), collecting hourly air quality data and generating nearly 20,000 observations per month. The network captured both spatial and temporal variability. The Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) test confirmed trend-based non-stationarity, which was addressed through differencing, revealing distinct daily and 12 h cycles linked to traffic and temperature variations. Additive seasonal decomposition exhibited time-inconsistent residuals, leading to the adoption of multiplicative decomposition, which better captured pollution outliers associated with agricultural burning. Machine learning models—Ridge Regression, XGBoost, and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) neural networks—were evaluated under high spatial and temporal variability (winter) and low variability (summer) conditions. Ridge Regression showed the best performance, achieving the highest $R^2$ (0.97 in winter, 0.93 in summer) and the lowest mean squared errors. XGBoost showed strong predictive capabilities but tended to overestimate moderate pollution events, while LSTM systematically underestimated PM2.5 levels in December. The residual analysis confirmed that Ridge Regression provided the most stable predictions, capturing extreme pollution episodes effectively, whereas XGBoost exhibited larger outliers. The study proved the potential of low-cost sensor networks and machine learning in urban air quality forecasting focused on rare smog episodes (RSEs). Full article

This paper presents the flow field reconstruction and prediction of powder fuel transport systems based on representative feature extraction from scattering images using deep learning techniques. A laboratory-built powder fuel supply system was used to conduct scattering spectroscopy experiments on boron-based fuel under various flow rate conditions. Based on the acquired scattering images, a prediction and reconstruction method was developed using a deep network framework composed of a Stacked Autoencoder (SAE), a Backpropagation Neural Network (BP), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. The proposed framework enables accurate classification and prediction of the dynamic evolution of flow structures based on learned representations from scattering images. Experimental results show that the feature vectors extracted by the SAE form clearly separable clusters in the latent space, leading to high classification accuracy under varying flow conditions. In the prediction task, the feature vectors predicted by the LSTM exhibit strong agreement with ground truth, with average mean square error, mean absolute error, and r-square values of 0.0027, 0.0398, and 0.9897, respectively. Furthermore, the reconstructed images offer a visual representation of the changing flow field, validating the model’s effectiveness in structure-level recovery. These results suggest that the proposed method provides reliable support for future real-time prediction of powder fuel mass flow rates based on optical sensing and imaging techniques. Full article

In this paper, MXene nanosheets were used as nano additives for the preparation of MXene-modified polyvinyl chloride (PVC) mixed max membranes (MMMs) for the rejection of lead (Pb²⁺) ions from wastewater. MXene nanosheets were introduced into the PVC matrix to enhance membrane performance, hydrophilicity, contact angle, porosity, and resistance to fouling. Modeling and optimization techniques were used to examine the effects of important operational and fabrication parameters, such as pH, contaminant concentration, nanoadditive (MXene) content, and operating pressure. Predictive models were developed using experimental data to assess the membranes’ performance in terms of flux and Pb²⁺ rejection. The ideal circumstances that struck a balance between long-term operating stability and high removal efficiency were found through multi-variable optimization. The optimized conditions for the best rejection of Pb²⁺ ions and the most stable permeability over time among the membranes that were manufactured were the initial metal ions concentration (2 mg/L), pH (7.89), pressure (2.99 bar), and MXene mass (0.3 g). The possibility of combining MXene nanoparticles with methodical optimization techniques to create efficient membranes for the removal of heavy metals in wastewater treatment applications is highlighted by this work. Full article

Mobile Charging Robots (MCRs), essentially high-voltage batteries mounted on mobile platforms, offer a flexible solution for electric vehicle (EV) charging, particularly in environments like supermarket parking lots with photovoltaic (PV) generation. Unlike fixed charging stations, MCRs must be strategically dispatched and recharged to maximize operational efficiency and revenue. This study investigates a Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) to coordinate MCR charging and movement, accounting for the additional complexity that EVs can park at arbitrary locations. The performance impact of EV arrival and demand forecasts is evaluated, comparing perfect foresight with data-driven predictions using long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. A slack variable method is also introduced to ensure timely recharging of the MCRs. Results show that incorporating forecasts significantly improves performance compared to no prediction, with perfect forecasts outperforming LSTM-based ones due to better-timed recharging decisions. The study highlights that inaccurate forecasts—especially in the evening—can lead to suboptimal MCR utilization and reduced profitability. These findings demonstrate that combining MPC with predictive models enhances MCR-based EV charging strategies and underlines the importance of accurate forecasting for future smart charging systems. Full article

With the growing global demand for clean energy, the accuracy of wind-power forecasting plays a vital role in ensuring the stable operation of power systems. However, wind-power generation is significantly influenced by meteorological conditions and is characterized by high uncertainty and multiscale fluctuations. Traditional recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models, although capable of handling sequential data, struggle with modeling long-term temporal dependencies due to the vanishing gradient problem; thus, they are now rarely used. Recently, Transformer models have made notable progress in sequence modeling compared to RNNs and LSTM models. Nevertheless, when dealing with long wind-power sequences, their quadratic computational complexity (O(L²)) leads to low efficiency, and their global attention mechanism often fails to capture local periodic features accurately, tending to overemphasize redundant information while overlooking key temporal patterns. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a wind-power forecasting method based on dimension-transformed collaborative multidimensional multiscale attention (DTCMMA). This method first employs fast Fourier transform (FFT) to automatically identify the main periodic components in wind-power data, reconstructing the one-dimensional time series as a two-dimensional spatiotemporal representation, thereby explicitly encoding periodic features. Based on this, a collaborative multidimensional multiscale attention (CMMA) mechanism is designed, which hierarchically integrates channel, spatial, and pixel attention to adaptively capture complex spatiotemporal dependencies. Considering the geometric characteristics of the reconstructed data, asymmetric convolution kernels are adopted to enhance feature extraction efficiency. Experiments on multiple wind-farm datasets and energy-related datasets demonstrate that DTCMMA outperforms mainstream methods such as Transformer, iTransformer, and TimeMixer in long-sequence forecasting tasks, achieving improvements in MSE performance by 34.22%, 2.57%, and 0.51%, respectively. The model’s training speed also surpasses that of the fastest baseline by 300%, significantly improving both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. This provides an efficient and accurate solution for wind-power forecasting and contributes to the further development and application of wind energy in the global energy mix. Full article

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as the dominant mode of decadal sea surface temperature variability in the North Pacific, exhibits both interannual and decadal fluctuations that significantly influence global climate. The complexity associated with PDO changes poses challenges for accurate predictions. This study develops a BiLSTM-WOA-MMD (BWM) model, which integrates a bidirectional long short-term memory network with a whale optimization algorithm (WOA) and multiple modal decomposition (MMD), to forecast PDO at both interannual and decadal time scales. The model successfully predicts monthly/annual average PDO index of up to 15 months/5 years in advance, achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.56/0.55. By utilizing the WOA to effectively optimize hyperparameters, the model enhances the PDO prediction skill compared to existing deep learning PDO prediction models, improving the correlation coefficient from 0.47 to 0.68 at a 6-month lead time. The combination of MMD and WOA further minimizes prediction errors and extends the forecasting effective time to 15 months by capturing essential modes. The BWM model can be employed for future PDO prediction and the predicted PDO will remain in its cool phase in the next year both using the PDO index from NECI and derived from near-time satellite data. This proposed model offers an effective way to advance the prediction skill of climate variability on multiple time scales by utilizing all kinds of data available including satellite data, and provides a large-scale background to monitor marine heatwaves. Full article

In the automotive industry, the supply of service parts—such as bumpers, batteries, and aero parts—is required even after the end of vehicle production, as customers need them for maintenance and repairs. To earn customer confidence, manufacturers must ensure timely availability of these parts while managing inventory efficiently. An excess of inventory can increase warehousing costs, while stock shortages can lead to supply delays. Accurate demand forecasting is essential to balance these factors, considering the changing demand characteristics over time, such as long-term trends, seasonal fluctuations, and irregular variations. This paper introduces a novel method for time series forecasting that employs Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to analyze service part demand. EEMD decomposes historical order data into multiple modes, and DMD is used to predict transitions within these modes. The proposed method demonstrated an approximately 30% reduction in forecasting error compared to comparative methods, showcasing its effectiveness in accurately predicting service parts demand across various patterns. Full article

Aiming at the problem that the aggravation of the wheel tread wear of high-speed trains leads to the deterioration of train operation performance and an increase in re-profiling times, a multi-objective data-driven optimization design method for the wheel profile is proposed. Firstly, the chaotic map is introduced into the population initialization process of the golden jackal algorithm. In the later stage of the algorithm iteration, random disturbance is introduced with optimization algebra as the switching condition to obtain an improved optimization algorithm, and the performance index of the optimization algorithm is verified to be superior to other algorithms. Secondly, the improved multi-objective optimization algorithm and data-driven model are used to optimize the tread coordinates and obtain an optimized profile. The vehicle dynamics performance of the optimized profile and the wheel wear evolution after long-term service are compared. The results show that the tread wear index of the left and right wheels in a straight line is reduced by 62.4% and 62.6%, respectively, and the wear index of the left and right wheels in a curved line is reduced by 26.5% and 5.5%, respectively. The stability and curve passing performance of the optimized profile are improved. Under the long-term service conditions of the train, the wear amount of the optimized profile is greatly reduced. After the wear prediction of 200,000 km, the wear amount of the optimized profile is reduced by 60.1%, and it has better curve-passing performance. Full article

Accurate reservoir outflow simulation is crucial for water resource management. However, traditional machine learning-based simulation methods have not sufficiently considered the physical constraints of reservoir operation, which may lead to unrealistic issues such as negative outflows or water levels exceeding the reservoir’s own limitations. This study integrates physical constraints into the random forest (RF) model using the Sigmoid function, constructing a physics-constrained random forest model (PC-RF) for cascade reservoir outflow simulation. A stratified sampling strategy based on hydrological year types is used to create the training and validation datasets. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) are used to evaluate the model’s performance for medium- to long-term predictions of reservoir outflows on a 10-day time scale. Additionally, the mean decrease in impurity method is used to assess the importance of input features, thereby enhancing the model’s interpretability. The application the Yalong River cascade reservoir indicates that (1) compared to traditional RF, the PC-RF achieved significant breakthroughs, with an increase of 37.13% in the R² and a decrease of 60.04% in the RMSE when simulating outflows from the Lianghekou Reservoir, with all reservoirs maintaining an R² above 0.95, with no instances of unrealistic outcomes; (2) PC-RF effectively integrated historical operational patterns with top three features being previous period outflow, current inflow, and previous period inflow, providing interpretable insights for operational decision-making. The PC-RF model demonstrates high accuracy and practical potential in cascade reservoir outflow simulation, providing valuable applications for cascade reservoir management and water resource optimization. Full article

In actual service, asphalt pavement is subjected to freeze–thaw cycles and ultraviolet radiation (UV) over the long term, which can easily lead to mixture aging, enhanced brittleness, and structural damage, thereby reducing pavement durability. This study focuses on the influence of freeze–thaw cycles and ultraviolet aging on the performance of recycled asphalt mixtures. Systematic indoor road performance tests were carried out, and a fatigue prediction model was established to explore the comprehensive effects of recycled asphalt pavement (RAP) content, environmental action (ultraviolet radiation + freeze–thaw cycle), and other factors on the performance of recycled asphalt mixtures. The results show that the high-temperature stability of recycled asphalt mixtures decreases with the increase in environmental action days, while higher RAP content contributes to better high-temperature stability. The higher the proportion of old materials, the more significant the environmental impact on the mixture; both the flexural tensile strain and flexural tensile strength decrease with the increase in environmental action time. When the RAP content increased from 30% to 50%, the bending strain continued to decline. With the extension of environmental action days, the decrease in the immersion Marshall residual stability and the freeze–thaw splitting strength became more pronounced. Although the increase in RAP content can improve the forming stability, the residual stability decreases, and the freeze–thaw splitting strength is lower than that before the freeze–thaw. Based on the fatigue test results, a fatigue life prediction model with RAP content and freeze–thaw cycles as independent variables was constructed using the multiple nonlinear regression method. Verification shows that the established prediction model is basically consistent with the change trend of the test data. The research results provide a theoretical basis and optimization strategy for the performance improvement and engineering application of recycled asphalt materials. Full article

This study investigates the influence of chromatic dispersion on the performance of Brillouin optical time-domain analysis (BOTDA) sensors, particularly under high-pump-power conditions, where nonlinear effects become significant. By incorporating dispersion terms into the coupled amplitude equations of stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS), we theoretically analyzed the dispersion-induced pulse broadening effect and its impact on the Brillouin gain spectrum (BGS). Numerical simulations revealed that dispersion leads to a moderate broadening of pump pulses, resulting in slight changes to BGS characteristics, including increased peak power and reduced linewidth. To explore the interplay between dispersion and nonlinearity, we built a gain-based BOTDA experimental system and tested two types of fibers, namely standard single-mode fiber (SMF) with anomalous dispersion and dispersion-compensating fiber (DCF) with normal dispersion. Experimental results show that SMF is more prone to modulation instability (MI), which significantly degrades the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the BGS. In contrast, DCF effectively suppresses MI and provides a more stable Brillouin signal. Despite SMF exhibiting narrower BGS linewidths, DCF achieves a higher SNR, aligning with theoretical predictions. These findings highlight the importance of fiber dispersion properties in BOTDA design and suggest that using normally dispersive fibers like DCF can improve sensing performance in long-range, high-power applications. Full article