Beyond the Backbone: A Quantitative Review of Deep-Learning Architectures for Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting

Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks is critical for disaster preparedness and risk mitigation. While traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have long served as the backbone of operational forecasting, they face limitations in computational cost and sensitivity to initial conditions. In recent years, deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising alternative, offering data-driven modeling capabilities for capturing nonlinear spatiotemporal patterns. This paper presents a comprehensive review of DL-based approaches for TC track forecasting. We categorize all DL-based TC tracking models according to the architecture, including recurrent neural networks (RNNs), convolutional neural networks (CNNs), Transformers, graph neural networks (GNNs), generative models, and Fourier-based operators. To enable rigorous performance comparison, we introduce a Unified Geodesic Distance Error (UGDE) metric that standardizes evaluation across diverse studies and lead times. Based on this metric, we conduct a critical comparison of state-of-the-art models and identify key insights into their relative strengths, limitations, and suitable application scenarios. Building on this framework, we conduct a critical cross-model analysis that reveals key trends, performance disparities, and architectural tradeoffs. Our analysis also highlights several persistent challenges, such as long-term forecast degradation, limited physical integration, and generalization to extreme events, pointing toward future directions for developing more robust and operationally viable DL models for TC track forecasting. To support reproducibility and facilitate standardized evaluation, we release an open-source UGDE conversion tool on GitHub.