Search Results (89)

This study investigates pre-seismic ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) disturbances preceding the Mw 6.9 Northern Aegean Sea earthquake of 24 May 2014 using observations from 13 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations. A pronounced negative TEC disturbance was identified on 22 May 2014, approximately two days before the earthquake, under comparatively quiet solar and geomagnetic conditions. Station-wise Z-score analysis, which expresses the TEC departure from the reference mean in units of standard deviation, revealed significant negative deviations across the network, while inter-station correlations indicated a temporally coherent but spatially heterogeneous ionospheric response. To characterize the disturbance beyond peak-based measures, the TEC Anomaly Significance Index (TASI) was developed by integrating the mean absolute Z-score, coefficient of variation, and Shannon entropy. TASI showed strong agreement with the maximum absolute Z-score ranking (Spearman’s $\rho =0.89$, $p<0.001$) while providing greater sensitivity to cumulative and persistent anomaly behaviour. It exhibited stronger associations than maximum $\mid Z\mid$ for six of the seven evaluated temporal descriptors, particularly those representing anomaly duration and consecutive persistence. Among the analyzed GNSS stations, KASI recorded the highest TASI despite not being the nearest station to the epicenter, indicating that anomaly significance was not governed solely by epicentral distance. The proposed framework provides a multidimensional, network-based approach for characterizing potential pre-seismic ionospheric disturbances and establishes a basis for future multi-event and control-period validation. Full article

Identifying reliable earthquake precursors remains a major challenge in geophysics. Among the most widely investigated candidates are seismicity-based indicators, such as the Gutenberg–Richter $b$-value, and ionospheric disturbances expressed through Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies. However, these observables are commonly investigated independently, and their quantitative spatial relationship remains poorly constrained. This study investigates the spatio-temporal evolution of $b$-values and GNSS-derived TEC anomalies preceding the 2019 Ridgecrest (Mw 7.1) and 2010 Baja California (Mw 7.2) earthquakes. Temporal analyses reveal progressive reductions in $b$-values prior to both earthquakes, while spatial mapping identifies localized low-$b$ regions with thresholds of $b\le 0.88$ for Ridgecrest and $b\le 0.83$ for Baja California. Independent TEC analyses reveal negative ionospheric anomalies of approximately 2.34 TECU and 4.27 TECU, occurring 9–10 days and ~2 days before the respective mainshocks under geomagnetically quiet conditions. A multi-scale centroid-based spatial validation framework, incorporating both global and local low-$b$ centroids together with Monte Carlo randomization tests, demonstrates that the dominant low-$b$ regions consistently exhibit the closest spatial correspondence with the TEC depletion. The observed centroid separations occupied only a limited fraction of the theoretical earthquake preparation zone, with normalized distances of 0.33 and 0.24 for the global centroids, decreasing to 0.32 and 0.17, respectively, for the dominant local low-$b$ regions. Overall, the results support a stress-conditioned lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling framework and demonstrate that integrating long-term seismic stress evolution with GNSS-derived ionospheric observations provides an objective multi-parameter framework for investigating the spatial organization of earthquake preparation processes. Full article

In order to investigate possible ionospheric anomalies before a magnitude 7.6 earthquake (EQ) in the Japanese Noto Peninsula on 1 January 2024, we used oblique ionosonde data sounding at Wakkanai and Yamagawa with an assumed one-hop reflection point (ORP) only 169 km away from the EQ epicenter, which was not covered by vertical ionosonde observation. The NmF2 at ORP was analyzed. We found a long-lasting negative anomaly from the preceding day to the EQ occurrence, which was 3.37 standard deviations below the previous 30-day mean. We also found a positive anomaly 2 days before the EQ. In addition, we observed a new type of NmF2 anomaly around midday, which has not yet been reported in the literature. The midday NmF2 was anomalous for 10, 8 days, and a few hours before the EQ, implying possible pre-seismic modifications of the mesospheric meridional neutral wind. On the other hand, we also found NmF2 anomalies 3 and 4 days before a major aftershock on 9 January, revealing that the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) remained active, as seismic activity continued some days after the EQ mainshock. Since both positive and negative anomalies were observed before the EQ, pre-seismic atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) activity is the main agent driving LAIC processes. The present study not only reports pre-seismic anomalies before the 2024 Noto Peninsula EQ but also demonstrates the utility of oblique ionosondes on the ionospheric monitoring over Japan, especially for pre-seismic studies. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive multi-parameter analysis of seismo-ionospheric responses to the Mw 7.7 Myanmar earthquake on 28 March 2025, using GNSS-based Total Electron Content (TEC) data, seismic b-value trends, and acoustic gravity wave (AGW) signatures. A significant negative TEC anomaly (~30 TECU below the statistical threshold) was detected on 25 March, three days before the mainshock under geomagnetically quiet conditions, indicating a lithospheric origin. Concurrent variations in the Ionospheric Disturbance Index (IDI) and Rate of TEC Index (ROTI) indicate pronounced background departures and enhanced short-term variability during the preparation phase. Temporal b-value analysis shows a consistent decline from 1.12 to 0.58 across the 30-year to 6-month windows, with the lowest values clustering near the epicenter, indicating progressive stress accumulation. Spatial b-value mapping further reveals a low b-value zone overlapping the region of TEC depletion, while the Relative Seismic Hazard Index (RSHI) highlights high-hazard zones aligned with the epicentral area. Kernel density estimation (KDE) supports this coupling by showing a dominant low-b, low-vTEC cluster, consistent with linked lithospheric stress and ionospheric depletion. Overall, the integrated GNSS and seismic analyses demonstrate the value of multi-domain observations for characterizing earthquake preparation processes, highlighting a coherent physical linkage between crustal stress accumulation and ionospheric depletion that can enhance short-term seismic hazard assessment. Full article

Global Positioning System (GPS)-derived ionospheric electron concentration measurements provide a powerful observational framework for seismo-electromagnetic studies, enabling quantitative investigation of lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling processes through statistically detectable perturbations in ionospheric electron concentration. We analyze GPS-derived Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) variations associated with the 14 August 2021 Haiti earthquake ($M_w$ 7.2) and the 11 January 2022 Cyprus earthquake ($M_w$ 6.6) using data from nearby International GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) Service (IGS) stations located within their respective earthquake preparation zones. VTEC time series spanning 45 days before and 7 days after each event are processed to remove the diurnal component, yielding residuals that isolate short-term ionospheric variability. Anomaly detection is performed using three statistical frameworks: a Gaussian mean, standard deviation model, a robust median/median absolute deviation (MAD) model, and a distribution-free quantile-based model. Daily “occurrence” and “energy” indices are constructed to quantify the frequency and cumulative strength of detected anomalies, respectively. While the indices exhibit similar temporal patterns across all methods, they indicate frequent anomaly detection, limiting statistical selectivity. To address this, both indices are normalized by their median values and filtered using a 95% quantile threshold, retaining only extreme deviations. This procedure substantially reduces background fluctuations and isolates a small number of statistically significant anomaly peaks. For both earthquakes, enhanced anomaly activity is identified in the weeks preceding the events, whereas post-event peaks coincide with periods of elevated meteorological and geomagnetic activity. The results demonstrate that normalization combined with robust statistical methods is essential for discriminating significant ionospheric TEC anomalies from background variability. Full article

Earthquake prediction remains one of the central unsolved problems in geophysics, and ionospheric variability offers a promising yet debated window into the earthquake preparation process through lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling. Progress has been hindered by methodological limitations in prior studies, including the use of inappropriate performance metrics for highly imbalanced seismic data, the reliance on geographically and temporally narrow data, and inclusion of inherent spatial or temporal features that artificially inflate model performance while preventing the discovery of genuine ionospheric precursors. To address these challenges, we introduce a global, temporally validated machine learning framework grounded in thirty-eight years of ionospheric observations from more than a hundred ionosonde stations. We eliminate lookahead bias through strict temporal partitioning, prevent overlapping precursor windows across samples to eliminate autocorrelation artifacts and apply sophisticated feature selection to exclude spatial and temporal identifiers, enabling prevention of data leakage and coincidence effects. We investigate whether spatiotemporally invariant ionospheric precursors exist across diverse seismic regions, addressing the field’s reliance on geographically isolated case studies. Cross-regional validation shows that our models yield modest classification skill above chance levels, with our best-performing model achieving a weighted F1 score of 71% though performance exhibits pronounced sensitivity to temporal validation configuration, suggesting these results represent an upper bound on operational accuracy. While multimodal fusion with complementary precursor channels could possibly improve performance, our focus remains on establishing whether ionospheric observations alone contain learnable, region-independent seismic signatures. These findings suggest that ionospheric precursors, if they exist as universal phenomena, exhibit weaker cross-regional consistency than previously reported in case studies, raising questions about their standalone utility for earthquake prediction while indicating potential value as one component within multimodal observation systems. Full article

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of pre- and co-seismic ionospheric disturbances associated with the 2023 Ms6.2 Jishishan earthquake by leveraging the unique observational strengths of BDS, particularly its high-orbit satellites. A multi-parameter space weather index was employed to effectively isolate seismogenic signals from geomagnetic disturbances, confirming that the main shock occurred during geomagnetically quiet conditions. Statistical analysis of 41 historical earthquakes (Mw ≥ 5.5) reveals that 47.2% were associated with detectable Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies. An inverse correlation between earthquake magnitude and anomaly detectability within a 31-day window suggests prolonged precursor durations for larger events may produce longer-duration precursory signals, which challenge conventional detection methods. The synergistic capabilities of BDS Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) and Inclined Geosynchronous Orbit (IGSO) satellites were demonstrated: GEO satellites provide unprecedented temporal stability for continuous TEC monitoring, while IGSO satellites enable high-resolution spatial mapping of Co-seismic Ionospheric Disturbances (CIDs). The detected CIDs propagated at velocities below 1.6 km/s, consistent with acoustic gravity wave (AGW) mechanisms. A case study during a geomagnetically active period further reveals modulated CID propagation characteristics, indicating potential coupling between seismic forcing and space weather. Our findings validate BDS as a powerful and precise tool for ionospheric seismology and provide critical insights into Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) dynamics. Full article

A series of multi-parameter, multi-layer observations was conducted to study possible electromagnetic precursors associated with the M 6.7 earthquake that struck Iburi, Hokkaido, Japan, at 18:07:59 UT on 5 September 2018. The most significant observation is seismogenic lower-ionospheric perturbations in the propagation anomalies of sub-ionospheric VLF/LF signals recorded in Japan and Russia. Other substantial observations include the GIM-TEC irregularities, the intensification of stratospheric atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs), and the satellite and ground monitoring of air temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), atmospheric chemical potential (ACP), and surface latent heat flux (SLHF). We have found that there were very remarkable VLF/LF anomalies indicative of lower-ionospheric perturbations observed on 4 and 5 September just before the EQ date and even after it from the observations in Japan and Russia. In particular, the anomaly was detected for a particular propagation path from the JJY transmitter (Fukushima) to a VLF station at Wakkanai one day before the EQ, i.e., on 4 September, and is objectively confirmed by machine/deep learning analysis. An anomaly in TEC occurred only on 5 September, but it is unclear whether it is related to a pre-EQ effect or a minor geomagnetic storm. We attempted to determine whether any seismo-related atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) activity occurred in the stratosphere. Although numerous anomalies were detected, they are most likely associated with convective weather phenomena, including a typhoon. Finally, the Earth’s surface parameters based on satellite monitoring seem to indicate some anomalies from 29 August to 3, 4, and 5 September, a few days prior to EQ data, but the ground-based observation close to the EQ epicenter has indicated a clear T/RH and ACP on 2 September with fair weather, but no significant data on subsequent days because of severe meteorological activities. By integrating multi-layer observations, the LAIC (lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling) process for the Hokkaido earthquake appears to follow a slow diffusion-type channel, where ionospheric perturbations arise a few days after ground thermal anomalies. This study also provides integrated evidence linking concurrent lower-ionospheric, atmospheric, and surface thermal anomalies, emphasizing the diagnostic value of such multi-parameter observations in understanding EQ-associated precursor signatures. Full article

We present a comprehensive multi-parametric analysis of Lithosphere– Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) processes associated with the M = 8.8 earthquake that struck offshore Kamchatka, Russia, on 30 July 2025 (29 July 2015; 23:24:52 UTC). Thermal observations revealed coherent pre-seismic irregularities in near-surface air temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric chemical potential (ACP), with maximum intensification occurring 1–2 days before the event, followed by rapid co-seismic dissipation and post-seismic recovery. Acoustic channel analysis revealed considerable enhancements in atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) potential energy, as computed from ERA5 reanalysis datasets, 3–5 days prior to the earthquake, with a co-seismic peak and weaker post-seismic irregularities at higher altitudes. Electromagnetic signatures manifested in both lower and upper ionospheric layers. Very-Low-Frequency (VLF) sub-ionospheric propagation from the NPM transmitter, continuously monitored at the PTK (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky) station in Kamchatka, Russia, exhibited both positive and negative deviations in amplitude and phase during the preparatory phase. VLF amplitude exhibited wavelike deviations consistent with AGW periods, peaking one day prior to the earthquake. Ionospheric Vertical Total electron content (VTEC) showed coherent pre-seismic maxima 2–3 days before the main shock. Together, these thermal, acoustic, and electromagnetic observations strongly suggest a consistent pre-seismic build-up, co-seismic dissipation, and post-seismic recovery, providing a robust multi-channel imprint of the Kamchatka earthquake and highlighting the importance of integrated multi-parameter approaches for understanding earthquake preparatory dynamics. Full article

It has recently been recognized that the ionosphere is highly sensitive to pre-seismic effects, and the detection of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes (EQs) is one of the most promising candidates for short-term EQ prediction. In this review, we focus on a possible use of VLF/LF (very low frequency (3–30 kHz)/low frequency (30–300 kHz)) radio sounding of seismo-ionospheric perturbations to study seismogenic effects. Because an understanding of the early history in any area will provide a lot of crucial insights to the readers (especially to young scientists) working in the field of seismo-electromagnetics, we provide a brief history (mainly results reported by a Russian group of scientists) of the initial application of subionospheric VLF/LF propagation for the study of ionospheric perturbations associated with EQs, and then we present our first convincing evidence on the ionospheric perturbation for the disastrous Kobe EQ in 1995, with a new analysis method based on the shifts in terminator times in VLF/LF diurnal variations (minima in the diurnal variations in amplitude and phase). We then summarize our latest results on further evidence of seismo-ionospheric perturbations. Firstly, we present a few statistical studies on the correlation between VLF/LF propagation anomalies and EQs based on long-term data. Secondly, we showcase studies for a few large, recent EQs (including the 2011 Tohoku EQ). Building on those EQ precursor studies, we demonstrate scientific topics and the underlying physics that can be studied using VLF/LF data, highlighting recent achievements including the revolutionary perspective of lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) (or how the ionosphere is perturbed due to the lithospheric pre-EQ activity), modulation in VLF/LF data by atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs), Doppler-shift observation, satellite observation of VLF/LF transmitter signals, etc., together with the recommendation of the application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and critical analysis to VLF/LF analysis. Finally, we want to emphasize again the essential significance of the information on lower-ionospheric perturbations within LAIC studies. Full article

This study reports, for the first time, the discovery and systematic characterization of a distinct electromagnetic phenomenon—the parallel stacked structure signal—in the VLF band using CSES-01 satellite electric field data. Its main contribution lies in defining this novel signal, characterized by transversely aligned and longitudinally clustered high-energy regions, and revealing its unique spatiotemporal patterns. We find these signals exhibit a pronounced Southern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude preference (40° S–65° S), a strong seasonal dependence (peak in winter and autumn), and a remarkable nightside dominance (86.4%). Analysis shows these patterns are not primarily governed by routine solar (F10.7) or geomagnetic (SME) activity, indicating a more complex generation mechanism. This work provides a foundational classification and analysis, offering a new and significant observable for future investigations into space weather and Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling processes. Full article

This study investigates pre-seismic ionospheric anomalies preceding the 2023 Jishishan Ms6.2 earthquake using total electron content (TEC) data derived from BDS geostationary orbit (GEO) satellites. Multi-scale analysis integrating Butterworth filtering and wavelet transforms resolved TEC disturbances into three distinct frequency regimes: (1) high-frequency perturbations (0.56–3.33 mHz) showed localized disturbances (amplitude ≤ 4 TECU, range < 300 km), potentially associated with near-field acoustic waves from crustal stress adjustments; (2) mid-frequency signals (0.28–0.56 mHz) exhibited anisotropic propagation (>1200 km) with azimuth-dependent N-shaped waveforms, consistent with the characteristics of acoustic–gravity waves (AGWs); and (3) low-frequency components (0.18–0.28 mHz) demonstrated phase reversal and power-law amplitude attenuation, suggesting possible lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere (LAI) coupling oscillations. The stark contrast between near-field residuals and far-field weak fluctuations highlighted the dominance of large-scale atmospheric gravity waves over localized acoustic disturbances. Geometry-based velocity inversion revealed incoherent high-frequency dynamics (5–30 min) versus anisotropic mid/low-frequency traveling ionospheric disturbance (TID) propagation (30–90 min) at 175–270 m/s, aligning with theoretical AGW behavior. During concurrent G1-class geomagnetic storm activity, spatial attenuation gradients and velocity anisotropy appear primarily consistent with seismogenic sources, providing insights for precursor discrimination and contributing to understanding multi-scale coupling in seismo-ionospheric systems. Full article

The propagation of seismo-traveling ionospheric disturbances (STIDs) is generally observed at one specific altitude layer. On 2 April 2024, a Mw 7.4 earthquake struck Hualien, which was the biggest earthquake since the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in the Taiwan region. In this study, a co-located vertical monitoring system combined with the observation of two horizontal layers in the ionosphere was utilized to study the STIDs associated with the Hualien earthquake. The vertical monitoring system can capture disturbances from the ground surface up to a height of ~350 km. In addition, changes in electric currents and the TEC (total electron content) at two horizontal layers, ~100 km and ~350 km, were monitored by permanent geomagnetic stations and a ground-based GNSS (global navigation satellite system) receivers network, respectively. The observations from this four-dimensional (4D) monitoring network show that the STIDs at a height of ~100 km associated with Rayleigh waves can propagate as far as 2000 km from the epicenter, while at an altitude of ~350 km, they can only propagate to about 1000 km. At an altitude of about 200 km, STIDs were also captured by a high-frequency Doppler sounder in a vertical monitoring system, which was consistent with the results in the geomagnetic field. The results from the 4D monitoring network suggest that the STIDs associated with Rayleigh waves exhibit different propagation ranges at various altitudes and prefer to propagate at low ionosphere layers. The vertical propagating waves typically only reach the bottom of the ionosphere and struggle to propagate to higher regions over long distances. Full article

Atmospheric responses to earthquakes or volcanic eruptions have become an interesting topic and can potentially contribute to future forecasting of these events. Extensive anomalies of the total electron content (TEC) are most often linked with geomagnetic storms or Earth-dependent phenomena, like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or nuclear explosions. This study extends rarely discussed, but very frequent, interactions between tectonic plate boundaries and the ionosphere. Our investigations focus on the very frequent occurrence of TEC enhancements not exclusively linked with individual seismic phenomena but located over tectonic plate boundaries. The objective of this study is to provide a review of the global spatiotemporal distribution of TEC anomalies, facilitating the discussion of their potential relations with tectonic activity. We apply a Kriging-based UPC-IonSAT quarter-of-an-hour time resolution rapid global ionospheric map (UQRG) from the Polytechnic University of Catalonia (UPC) IonSAT group for the detection of relative vertical TEC (VTEC) changes. Our study describes global relative and normalized VTEC variations, which have spatial and temporal behaviours strongly indicating their relationship both with geomagnetic changes and the tectonic plate system. The variations in geomagnetic fields, including the storms, disturb the ionosphere and amplify TEC variations persisting for several hours over tectonic plate boundaries, mostly over the diverging ones. The seismic origin of the selected parts of these TEC enhancements and depletions and their link with tectonic plate edges are suspected from their duration, shape, and location. The changes in TEC originating from both sources can be observed separately or together, and therefore, there is an open question about the directions of the energy transfers. However, the importance of geomagnetic field lines seems to be probable, due to the frequent common occurrence of both types of TEC anomalies. This research also proves that permanent observation of global lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) is also important in time periods without strong earthquake or volcanic events. The occurrence of TEC variations over diverging tectonic plate boundaries, sometimes combined with travelling anomalies of geomagnetic origin, can add to the studies on earthquake precursors and forecasting. Full article

Focusing on major earthquakes (EQs; MS ≥ 7) in Western China, this study primarily analyzes the fluctuation in Atmospheric Chemical Potential (ACP) before and after the Wenchuan, Yushu, Lushan, Jiuzhaigou, and Maduo EQs via Climatological Analysis of Seismic Precursors Identification (CAPRI). The distribution of vertical ACP revealed distinct altitude-dependent characteristics. The ACP at lower atmospheric layers (100–2000 m) exhibited a high correlation, and this correlation decreased with increasing altitude. Anomalies were detected within one month prior to each of the five EQs studied, with the majority occurring 14 to 30 days before the events, followed by a few additional anomalies. The spatial distribution of anomalies is consistent with the distribution of fault zones, with noticeable fluctuation in surrounding areas. The ACP at an altitude of 200 m gave a balance between sensitivity to seismic signals and minimal surface interference and proved to be optimal for EQ monitoring in Western China. The results offer a significant reference for remote sensing studies related to EQ monitoring and the Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, thereby advancing our understanding of pre-seismic atmospheric variations in Western China. Full article