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Artificial Intelligence for Earthquake Prediction

A special issue of Applied Sciences (ISSN 2076-3417). This special issue belongs to the section "Earth Sciences".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 20 November 2025 | Viewed by 2562

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Guest Editor
Department of Cartographic Engineering, Geodesy and Photogrammetry, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain
Interests: artificial intelligence applications in GNSS; deformation monitoring; GNSS algorithms; robust estimation and optimization problems in cartographic sciences

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The flourishing of artificial intelligence in its various forms, from deep learning to generative artificial intelligence, has made it possible in recent years to perform tasks that previously seemed out of reach or completely impossible. Its immense potential for accelerating scientific discovery cannot be ignored in any branch of scientific research today.

One of the topics considered as an impossible task for centuries is the prediction of a future earthquake based on some possible earthquake precursors. Strange animal behaviors prior to large earthquakes have, however, been documented for many decades, and it seems plausible that these anomalous behaviors could be triggered by certain changes in the environment that are perceptible in the earth's surface, the water, and the atmosphere. Inspired by this idea, some researchers have attained a relative degree of success in analyzing certain earthquake precursors. Many successful detection cases have been published in recent years; however, a method producing consistent results in the long run is still missing.

With these partial successes and the accelerated development of artificial intelligence, consistent earthquake prediction seems to have increasingly become a matter of near development rather than impossibility. We may not yet understand the underlying processes exactly, but it may be that the predictive essences can still be captured. Science is starting to accept that, perhaps, earthquake prediction is only as impossible as weather forecasting was considered some centuries ago.

In the current Special Issue, we welcome contributions from all AI disciplines focusing on earthquake prediction from data sources including, but not limited to, anomalies in the Total Electron Content (TEC) of the ionosphere or other ground- or space-based recorded anomalies of electromagnetic nature, b-values and other estimators from the seismic data catalog, crustal strain variations, geomagnetic data, and geoacoustics signals.

We especially encourage contributions that aim to produce a robust forecasting system with broad geographic application over time.

Dr. Sergio Baselga
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • earthquake forecast
  • artificial intelligence
  • machine learning
  • deep learning
  • artificial neural networks (ANN)
  • random forests
  • support vector machines (SVM)
  • ionospheric anomalies
  • total electron content (TEC)
  • historical seismicity

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Published Papers (1 paper)

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12 pages, 2652 KiB  
Article
Artificial Intelligence for Earthquake Prediction: A Preliminary System Based on Periodically Trained Neural Networks Using Ionospheric Anomalies
by Sergio Baselga
Appl. Sci. 2024, 14(23), 10859; https://doi.org/10.3390/app142310859 - 23 Nov 2024
Viewed by 2108
Abstract
There is increasing evidence that anomalies in the ionosphere could appear a few days before large earthquakes. Many significant successes with using anomalies for predictions have been reported, although they are usually limited, both in space, to a specific geographic area, and in [...] Read more.
There is increasing evidence that anomalies in the ionosphere could appear a few days before large earthquakes. Many significant successes with using anomalies for predictions have been reported, although they are usually limited, both in space, to a specific geographic area, and in time, to one or a few events. To date, no solution has been presented that consistently yields the location and magnitude of future earthquakes and thus can be used to develop a warning service. The purpose of this research is to improve on the possible use of Global Ionospheric Maps for earthquake prediction. The use of three-dimensional data matrices, having spatiotemporal information to feed a convolutional neural network, is proposed in this contribution. This network was trained on all large earthquakes occurring from the beginning of the year 2011 to the beginning of October 2024 but it is proposed that it be periodically retrained with new data. This network has reached an accuracy of around 60% in the validation data for a division into eight categories of different earthquake magnitudes. Nevertheless, this percentage increases considerably if the classification into neighboring categories is also accepted, something that could be clearly admissible for the purposes of a warning system. The author believes that success in this endeavor has to come from a collaborative effort. For this reason, the training and validation data with three-dimensional matrices (latitude/longitude/time) of total electron content values along with the subsequent earthquake magnitudes are provided in this paper along with the trained network. Researchers are strongly encouraged to improve on the current neural network with or without the inclusion of additional information. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Artificial Intelligence for Earthquake Prediction)
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