Search Results (347)

The relationship between ecosystem services (ESs) and human well-being (HWB) is a central issue of sustainable development. However, current research often relies on qualitative frameworks or indicator-based assessments, limiting a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between natural environment and human acquisition, which still needs to be strengthened. As an element transferred in the natural–society coupling system, carbon can assist in characterizing the dynamic interactions within coupled human–natural systems. Carbon, as a fundamental element transferred across ecological and social spheres, offers a powerful lens to characterize these linkages. This study develops and applies a novel analytical framework that integrates carbon flow as a unifying metric to quantitatively assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of the land use and land cover change (LUCC)–ESs–HWB nexus in Guizhou Province, China, from 2000 to 2020. The results show that: (1) Ecosystem services in Guizhou showed distinct trends from 2000 to 2020: supporting and regulating services declined and then recovered, and provisioning services steadily increased, while cultural services remained stable but varied across cities. (2) Human well-being generally improved over time, with health remaining stable and the HSI rising across most cities, although security levels fluctuated and remained low in some areas. (3) The contribution of ecosystem services to human well-being peaked in 2010–2015, followed by declines in central and northern regions, while southern and western areas maintained or improved their levels. (4) Supporting and regulating services were positively correlated with HWB security, while cultural services showed mixed effects, with strong synergies between culture and health in cities like Liupanshui and Qiandongnan. Overall, this study quantified the coupled dynamics between ecosystem services and human well-being through a carbon flow framework, which not only offers a unified metric for cross-dimensional analysis but also reduces subjective bias in evaluation. This integrated approach provides critical insights for crafting spatially explicit land management policies in Guizhou and offers a replicable methodology for exploring sustainable development pathways in other ecologically fragile karst regions worldwide. Compared with conventional ecosystem service frameworks, the carbon flow approach provides a process-based, dynamic mediator that quantifies biogeochemical linkages in LUCC–ESs–HWB systems, which is particularly important in fragile karst regions. However, we acknowledge that further empirical comparison with traditional ESs metrics could strengthen the framework’s generalizability. Full article

The Eastern Huang–Huai region of China is a representative mining area with a high groundwater level. High-intensity underground mining activities have not only induced land cover and land use changes (LUCC) but also significantly changed the watershed hydrological behavior. This study integrated the land use prediction model PLUS and the hydrological simulation model MIKE 21. Taking the Bahe River Watershed in Huaibei City, China, as an example, it simulated the hydrological response trends of the watershed in 2037 under different land use scenarios. The results demonstrate the following: (1) The land use predictions for each scenario exhibit significant variation. In the maximum subsidence scenario, the expansion of water areas is most pronounced. In the planning scenario, the increase in construction land is notable. Across all scenarios, the area of cultivated land decreases. (2) In the maximum subsidence scenario, the area of high-intensity waterlogging is the greatest, accounting for 31.35% of the total area of the watershed; in the planning scenario, the proportion of high-intensity waterlogged is the least, at 19.10%. (3) In the maximum subsidence scenario, owing to the water storage effect of the subsidence depression, the flood peak is conspicuously delayed and attains the maximum value of 192.3 m³/s. In the planning scenario, the land reclamation rate and ecological restoration rate of subsidence area are the highest, while the regional water storage capacity is the lowest. As a result, the total cumulative runoff is the greatest, and the peak flood value is reduced. The influence of different degrees of subsidence on the watershed hydrological behavior varies, and the coal mining subsidence area has the potential to regulate and store runoff and perform hydrological regulation. The results reveal the mechanism through which different land use scenarios influence hydrological processes, which provides a scientific basis for the territorial space planning and sustainable development of coal mining subsidence areas. Full article

Anthropogenic activities and climate change have significantly altered runoff generation in the upper Han River basin, posing a challenge to the water supply sustainability for the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Land use/cover changes (LUCCs) affect hydrological processes by modifying evapotranspiration, infiltration and soil moisture content. Based on hydro-meteorological data from 1961 to 2023 and LUCC data series from 1985 to 2023, this study aimed to identify the temporal trend in hydro-meteorological variables, to quantify the impacts of underlying land surface and climate factors at different time scales and to clarify the effects of LUCCs and basin greening on the runoff generation process. The results showed that (1) inflow runoff declined at a rate of −1.71 mm/year from 1961 to 2023, with a marked shift around 1985, while potential evapotranspiration increased at a rate of 2.06 mm/year within the same time frame. (2) Annual climate factors accounted for 61.01% of the runoff reduction, while underlying land surface contributed 38.99%. Effective precipitation was the dominant climatic factor during the flood season, whereas potential evapotranspiration had a greater influence during the dry season. (3) From 1985 to 2023, the LUCC changed significantly, mainly manifested by the increasing forest area and decreasing crop land area. The NDVI also showed an upward trend over the years; the actual evapotranspiration increased by 1.163 billion m³ due to the LUCC. This study addresses the climate-driven and human-induced hydrological changes in the Danjiangkou Reservoir and provides an important reference for water resource management. Full article

The reducing streamflow is a major concern in the Yilong Lake Basin (YLB), which supplies water for agriculture and the growing population in the basin and to maintain the health of the regional ecosystem. The YLB has experienced remarkable land use/land cover change (LUCC) and climate change (CC) in recent years. To understand the drivers of the streamflow change in this basin, the effects of the land use change and climate variation on the temporal flow variability were studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT simulated the streamflow well. Then the streamflow responses to the land use change between 2010 and 2020 and climate change with future climate projections (SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) were evaluated. Results showed that the LUCC in the YLB caused a marginal decline in the annual streamflow at the whole basin scale but significantly altered rainfall–runoff relationships and intra-annual discharge patterns; e.g., monthly streamflows decreased by up to 3% in the dry season under the surface modification, with subbasins of the YLB exhibiting divergent responses attributed to spatial heterogeneity in land surface transitions. Under future climate scenarios, streamflow projections revealed general declining trends with significant uncertainties, particularly under high-emission pathways, e.g., SSP370 and SSP585, in which the streamflow could be projected to reduce by up to 5.9% in the mid-future (2031–2045). In addition, droughts were expected to intensify, exacerbating seasonal water stress in the future. It suggests that integrated water governance should synergize climate-resilient land use policies with adaptive infrastructure to address regional water resources challenges. Full article

In agro-pastoral transitional zones, monitoring vegetation fraction coverage (FVC) and understanding its relationship with land use and climate change are crucial for comprehending how complex land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) improves ecological restoration and land management. This study focuses on the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Inner Mongolia, aiming to analyze vegetation cover changes from 2000 to 2020 using the Mann–Kendall (MK) significance test, Theil–Sen median trend analysis, and coefficient of variation (CV) analysis. Additionally, the study explores the impacts of LUCC, precipitation, and temperature on vegetation cover using methods such as geo-detector, pixel-based statistical analysis, and univariate linear regression. Based on the PLUS land-use prediction model and linear regression results, vegetation cover was simulated under different land-use scenarios for the future. The main findings are as follows: first, from 2000 to 2020, the spatial distribution of vegetation cover in the study area showed a distinct pattern of higher vegetation cover in the east compared to the west, with significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Although the overall vegetation cover slightly increased, there were notable differences in the trend across regions, with some areas experiencing a decrease in FVC. Second, LUCC is the most significant explanatory factor for vegetation cover changes, and the interactions between LUCC and other factors have a particularly notable impact on vegetation cover. Third, scenario simulations based on the PLUS model indicate that, by 2040, vegetation cover will perform optimally under the farmland protection and sustainable development scenarios. Particularly under the farmland protection scenario, the conversion of cropland, forestland, and grassland is notably suppressed. In contrast, the unmanaged natural development scenario will lead to a decline in vegetation cover. The results of this study show that vegetation cover in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Inner Mongolia exhibits substantial fluctuations due to land-use change. Future ecological restoration policies should incorporate land-use optimization to promote vegetation recovery and address ecological degradation. Full article

With accelerating climate change and urbanization, regional carbon balance faces increasing uncertainty. Terrestrial carbon sinks play a crucial role in advancing China’s sustainable development under the dual-carbon strategy. This study quantitatively modeled China’s terrestrial carbon sink capacity and analyzed the multidimensional relationships between impact factors and carbon sinks. After preprocessing multi-source raster data, we introduced kernel normalized the difference vegetation index (kNDVI) to the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model, together with a heterotrophic respiration (R_h) empirical equation, to simulate pixel-level net ecosystem productivity (NEP) across China. A light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) model, optimized via Bayesian algorithms, was trained to regress NEP drivers, categorized into atmospheric components (O₃, NO₂, and SO₂) and subsurface properties (a digital elevation model (DEM), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), soil moisture (SM)), and human activities (land use/cover change (LUCC), POP, gross domestic product (GDP)). Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values were used for model interpretation. The results reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in NEP across geographic and climatic contexts. The pixel-level mean and total NEP in China were 268.588 gC/m²/yr and 2.541 PgC/yr, respectively. The north tropical zone (NRZ) exhibited the highest average NEP (828.631 gC/m²/yr), while the middle subtropical zone (MSZ) and south subtropical zone (SSZ) demonstrated the most stable NEP distributions. LightGBM achieved high simulation accuracy, further enhanced by Bayesian optimization. SHAP analysis identified EVI as the most influential factor, followed by SM, NO₂, DEM, and POP. Additionally, LightGBM effectively captured nonlinear relationships and variable interactions. Full article

Balancing ecological conservation with development pressures remains a critical challenge in regions hosting mega-events like the Winter Olympics. This study evaluates the ecological impacts of pre-Olympic construction in Chongli, China (2016–2021), through the integrated analysis of ecosystem service value (ESV) and landscape ecological risk (LERI). Using Sentinel-2 imagery and spatial statistics, we quantified land-use changes, applied benefit transfer methods for ESV assessment, and calculated the LERI using landscape pattern indices. The results revealed a 4.6% increase in the total ESV (266.4 to 278.7 million CNY), which was driven by afforestation initiatives that expanded the area of shrub-grassland and forests. Concurrently, the proportion of high/moderate LERI areas decreased by 12.3%, indicating reduced ecological vulnerability. Spatial correlation analysis demonstrated significant negative relationships between the ESV and LERI, particularly in zones that were undergoing ecological restoration. However, urban expansion weakened these synergies locally. The findings of this study highlight that strategic greening effectively enhanced ecosystem services while mitigating landscape risks during preparations for the Olympics. We propose an adaptive zoning framework that emphasizes dynamic ESV-LERI monitoring, tourism carrying capacity regulation, and payment for ecosystem service mechanisms to optimize post-event management. This integrated approach provides a transferable model for ecological governance in ecologically sensitive areas facing rapid development pressures, demonstrating the value of dual assessment methodologies in sustainable spatial planning. Full article

Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use/cover change (LUCC) and landscape ecological risk (LER), and understanding their coupling mechanisms are crucial for sustainable development in ecologically vulnerable areas. This study examines the Wanzhou–Dazhou–Kaizhou (WDK) region from 1980 to 2020, employing intensity analysis, comprehensive index of land use intensity (LUI), and landscape index models to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of LUCC and LER systematically. A coupling research framework based on optimal evaluation scales was constructed to reveal the interactive mechanisms between LUI and LER. The results indicate that over the 40 years, the main land use categories were Crop and Forest. Crop was the primary stable source for the expansion of Built. LUI and LER exhibited a clear geographic gradient, higher in the south and lower in the north, with agricultural and urban areas showing higher risk levels. The coupling coordination degree between LUI and LER was generally moderate, spatially manifesting as a “strong coupling–weak coordination” pattern. Moderately unbalanced areas increased, with environmental improvements observed in some regions. However, typical ecological degradation zones also emerged. This study can provide a basis for environmental management and land use planning in the WDK region. Full article

As a typical karst landform region, the Lijiang River Basin, located in Southwest China, is characterized by both soil erosion and ecological fragility. The transformation of land use, driven by long-term intensive human activities, has exacerbated the degradation of ecosystem services, threatening the region’s carbon sink function. To clarify the coupling mechanism between land use and land cover change (LUCC) and carbon storage, this paper integrates complex network theory with the PLUS-InVEST model framework. Based on land use data from five periods, i.e., 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016, and 2021, the key transformation types are identified, and the evolution of carbon storage from 2021 to 2041 is simulated under three scenarios, namely, inertial scenario, ecological protection scenario, and urban development scenario. The paper finds that (1) land use transformation in the basin exhibits spatial heterogeneity and network complexity, as evidenced by a significant negative correlation between the node clustering coefficient and the average path length, revealing that land type transitions possess small-world network characteristics. (2) The forested land experienced a net decrease of 196.73 km² from 2001 to 2021, driving a 3.03% decline in carbon storage. This highlights the inhibitory effect of unregulated urban expansion on carbon sink capacity. (3) Scenario simulations indicate that the carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario will be 1.0% higher than under the inertial scenario and 1.5% higher than under the urban development scenario. These suggest that restricting impervious land expansion and promoting forest and grassland restoration can enhance carbon sink capacity. Therefore, this paper provides a quantitative basis for optimizing territorial spatial planning and coordinating the “dual carbon” goals in karst regions. Full article

Modeling changes in ecosystem service value (ESV) resulting from land use/cover change (LUCC) in coastal regions play a crucial role in promoting regional sustainability and guiding policymaking. This study focuses on the Chaoshan region of China and analyzes the impact of land use changes in 2000, 2010, and 2020 on ESV. The Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate LUCC for 2030 under three different scenarios: natural development (ND), urban development (UD), and ecological protection (EP). The spatial distribution and aggregation degree of ESV were assessed to explore the intrinsic relationship between land use and ecosystem service value in the Chaoshan region. The results showed the following: (1) The cropland area in the Chaoshan region has significantly decreased, with the per capita cropland area dropping to 113.34 m² (0.028 acres) by 2020. The continuous expansion of construction land has been mainly concentrated in Shantou, Jieyang, and Chaozhou, with an increasingly evident trend of urban integration among these three cities. By 2030, the growth rate of construction land in the EP scenario is expected to decline, indicating a slowdown in urban expansion. (2) Between 2000 and 2020, Shantou was the only city in the region to experience a decline in total ESV. Low ESV values in the Chaoshan region are primarily concentrated in the southeastern area. As urban integration progresses, ESV values in this region are expected to continue to decline. (3) The ongoing trend of urban integration between Shantou, Chaozhou, and Jieyang may result in the region becoming an ecologically vulnerable area. Close monitoring of potential ecological risks in this area is crucial to ensure a balance between urban development and ecological protection. This study will provide important guidance for land use policies and sustainable development in the Chaoshan region, as well as in similar coastal cities globally. Full article

Human activities exert considerable influence on ecosystem health, a cornerstone for fostering sustainable regional growth, largely through their effects on land use transformations. This study integrates a system dynamics (SD) model with the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and the VORS (vigor–organization–resilience–ecosystem services) model to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/cover change (LUCC) and assess ecosystem health in the Chengdu Metropolitan Area (CMA) from 2020 to 2035. These projections were conducted under three distinct scenarios: the ecological protection scenario (EPS), the natural development scenario (NDS), and the economic development scenario (EDS). The findings indicate the following: (1) Under EPS, NDS, and EDS, both cultivated land and grassland areas decline, and construction land expands by 40.68%, 54.76%, and 75.01%, respectively. (2) Across all three scenarios, ecosystem health demonstrates improvement, and it shifts from “poor” to “moderate.” (3) Ecosystem health levels in the CMA demonstrate significant spatial heterogeneity; they exhibit “low” levels in the central city, while generally stable levels are observed throughout the surrounding region. These results offer a strong scientific foundation for cultivating sustainable land management strategies and protecting ecosystem health in the CMA. Full article

The construction of ecological networks and the optimization of ecological spatial layouts are essential for maintaining regional ecological security and promoting sustainable development, especially in high-population-density urban agglomerations. This study employs the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA) as a case study to establish an ecological network through a quantitative assessments of land use/cover change (LUCC) and ecosystem service value (ESV), utilizing the morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) methods and tools such as Linkage Mapper to further optimize ecological spatial layouts. The findings reveal the following: (1) The land use structure within the CPUA experienced notable shifts. The magnitude of land use changes ranked as follows: construction land > cultivated land > grassland > waterbody > forest > bare land. (2) The southwestern mountainous and hilly regions, designated as high ESV areas, primarily rely on water conservation and soil retention functions. In contrast, the central and western regions, characterized by low ESVs, are dominated by construction land and cultivated land, and are significantly influenced by urbanization and agricultural activities. (3) An ecological network system was developed based on the region’s natural geographic features, incorporating 20 ecological sources covering approximately 21,434.70 km², and 36 ecological corridors with a combined length of around 2795.19 km. This network extends in a north–south direction through the central and western parts of the CPUA. (4) Considering the spatial changes in land use/cover and ESVs, an optimized ecological spatial layout of “five belts, six zones, multiple clusters, and corridors” was proposed, along with differentiated restoration strategies tailored to address specific ecological issues in different regions. This study aims to harmonize regional ecological protection with economic development, providing a scientific foundation and valuable reference for ecological conservation and sustainable spatial planning policies. Full article

The Jinghe River flows through the gully area of the Loess Plateau, where soil erosion is relatively severe. With the intensification of human activities, quantitatively evaluating the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on runoff is of paramount importance. This study is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) models, and quantitatively analyzes the effect of LUCC on runoff in the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) through land use data from 2000 to 2020 and predicted scenarios for 2030 that encourage development, farmland protection, and ecological protection. The results show that reductions in farmland, grassland, and forest areas promote runoff, while increases in construction land similarly contribute to greater runoff. In all 2030 scenarios, the JRB is dominated by farmland and grassland. The mean annual runoff of LUCC under the three simulated prediction scenarios shows an increasing trend compared to LUCC in 2020, and the distribution of mean annual runoff depth is roughly the same. In addition, there is a strong interconnection between land use types and runoff in their dynamic relationship. Within the LUCC scenario, the decrease in farmland and forest land, along with the growth of construction land area promote runoff, while grassland plays a suppressive role in runoff. The results can offer a scientific foundation for improving soil erosion as well as optimizing land use patterns in the JRB. Full article

With the rapid acceleration of global urbanization, the impact of land use/cover change (LUCC) on the environment and ecosystems has become increasingly prominent, particularly in terms of air quality, which has emerged as a significant issue demanding attention. Focusing on the coastal city of Lianyungang, the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/cover changes were explored by utilizing land use dynamic degree and land use transfer matrix methods. By integrating a comprehensive historical dataset, multiple linear regression analysis was used to analyze the driving mechanism of land use conversion and to explore the effect of LUCC on the variations in PM₁₀ levels. The results showed an overall decreasing trend in PM₁₀ levels over the 24-year period from 2000 to 2023, with distinct seasonal fluctuations, showing higher concentrations in winter and lower concentrations in summer. The impact of land use on PM₁₀ variations can be categorized into three stages: initial (2000–2006), transitional (2007–2013), and deepening development (2014–2022). Notably, during the third stage, with the involvement of policy interventions and industrial upgrading, a strong negative correlation of −0.97 was identified between urban land expansion and the decrease in PM₁₀ levels. The correlation between LUCC and PM₁₀ levels was insignificant over shorter periods, but the analysis of data from 2000 to 2022 revealed a significant positive correlation of 0.77, emphasizing the importance of adopting a long-term perspective to accurately assess the impact of LUCC on air quality. This research provides valuable insights into the implications of LUCC on air quality during urbanization and establishes a scientific foundation for developing air pollution management strategies in Lianyungang and similar regions. Full article

Historically, the Wei River has served as part of the Yongji Canal section of the Grand Canal, playing a crucial role in connecting northern and southern China. However, with the acceleration of urbanization in China, issues such as excessive land development and ecological landscape fragmentation have emerged. Exploring the mechanisms of landscape fragmentation evolution in the Wei River basin and proposing optimization strategies is of significant importance for land use and ecological stability within small- to medium-sized river basins. This study selected land use data from the Weihe River basin between 2000 and 2020, using landscape pattern indices to analyze the trend of landscape fragmentation. The principal component analysis (PCA) and geographical detector methods were employed to explore the distribution characteristics and driving factors of landscape fragmentation. The research results indicate that: (1) The degree of landscape fragmentation in the Wei River basin has progressively intensified over time. The edge density index (ED), the landscape division index (DIVISION), the landscape shape index (LSI), and the Shannon diversity index (SHDI) have increased annually, while the contagion index (CONTAG) and area-weighted mean patch size (Area_AM) have continuously decreased; (2) Landscape fragmentation in the Wei River basin is characterized by stable changes in the source and tributary fragmentation areas, a concentrated distribution of fragmentation in the tributaries, and a significant increase in fragmentation in the main stream; (3) The analysis using the geographic detector method indicates that vegetation coverage (FVC), human activity intensity (HAI), and land use/land cover change (LUCC) are the main driving factors of landscape fragmentation in the Wei River basin. The findings explore the mechanisms of landscape fragmentation in the basin and provide a reference for land use planning and ecological restoration in the region. Full article