Search Results (1,043)

This paper investigates the macro-financial consequences of recent monetary policy tightening cycles, focusing on the distinction between soft and hard landings. Using an OLS regression framework applied to U.S. and Euro Area data from 1994 to 2023, we analyze the response of equity and bond markets, inflation, and GDP growth to central bank interest rate hikes. The findings suggest that, in most past tightening episodes, central banks succeeded in engineering soft landings without severe disruptions to market conditions or economic growth. However, the current post-pandemic context may lead to a two-stage adjustment, as inflation persistence and geopolitical shocks alter standard transmission dynamics. The study contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the timing and intensity of rate hikes, offering historical insights and empirical evidence from capital market signals. Full article

As the installed power of wind turbines increases, new challenges for the implementation of wind energy in the national power system emerge. Several hours of high energy productivity from wind turbines, together with the periodic occurrence of relatively low energy consumption (at a national scale), sometimes result in the need to stop their operation and, much more often, result in very low revenues for electricity. One of the ways to reduce these phenomena, from a technical and economic point of view, is to use energy storage. However, managing such energy storage poses many challenges due to the unpredictably different duration of favorable and unfavorable wind conditions. Based on historical data on wind turbine energy generation and market data on electricity prices, the impact of using an energy storage with an effective capacity of 2.4 MWh (total 4 MWh) with a maximum charging and discharging power (set parameter) of 1.2 MW in cooperation with a wind turbine (capacity 3 MW) was analyzed. Using simulation methods for energy production and price data from 34,964 h (4 years), the potential additional revenue for the energy storage installed at the wind turbine was calculated. The developed model considered various values: minimum charging power, maximum charging power; and as elements of price signals: price averaging period, level of price deviation from the average electricity price. Full article

Investors face the challenge of how to incorporate economic and financial forecasts into their investment strategy, especially in times of financial crisis. To model this situation, we consider a financial market consisting of a risk-free asset with a constant interest rate as well as a risky asset whose drift and volatility is influenced by a stochastic process indicating the probability of potential market downturns. We use a dynamic portfolio optimization approach in continuous time to maximize the expected utility of terminal wealth and solve the corresponding HJB equations for the general class of HARA utility functions. The resulting optimal strategy can be obtained in closed form. It corresponds to a CPPI strategy with a stochastic multiplier that depends on the information from the crisis indicator. In addition to the theoretical results, a performance analysis of the derived strategy is implemented. The specified model is fitted using historic market data and the performance is compared to the optimal portfolio strategy obtained in a Black–Scholes framework without crisis information. The new strategy clearly dominates the BS-based CPPI strategy with respect to the Sharpe Ratio and Adjusted Sharpe Ratio. Full article

In recent years, computational intelligence techniques have significantly contributed to the automation and optimization of trading strategies. Despite the increasing sophistication of predictive models, classical technical indicators such as dual Simple Moving Averages (2-SMA) remain popular due to their simplicity and interpretability. This work proposes an adaptive trading system that combines the 2-SMA strategy with a learning-based metaheuristic optimizer known as the Learning-Based Linear Balancer ($L{B}^2$). The objective is to dynamically adjust the strategy’s parameters to maximize returns in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market. The proposed system is evaluated through simulations using historical data of the BTCUSDT futures contract from the Binance platform, incorporating real-world trading constraints such as transaction fees. The optimization process is validated over 34 training/test splits using overlapping 60-day windows. Results show that the $L{B}^2$-optimized strategy achieves an average return on investment (ROI) of 7.9% in unseen test periods, with a maximum ROI of 17.2% in the best case. Statistical analysis using the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test confirms that our approach significantly outperforms classical benchmarks, including Buy and Hold, Random Walk, and non-optimized 2-SMA. This study demonstrates that hybrid strategies combining classical indicators with adaptive optimization can achieve robust and consistent returns, making them a viable alternative to more complex predictive models in crypto-based financial environments. Full article

As Zen Buddhism continues into its second century in the United States, the practices and philosophies transmitted have gone through major, though necessary transformations. At present, the vast majority of Zen temples and centers are “convert” communities that have over time adjusted language, ritual, and tradition to suit pastoral and theological needs. This article lays out a blueprint for a Zen public “theology” by discussing the transformation of the exoteric, physical practice of Zen to an esoteric practice that governs inner conduct and community cohesion. For this piece, esoteric is used less in a mystical capacity, but more in terms of referring to a closed community of practitioners and initiates. The transformation from a historically exoteric practice in Japan to a generally esoteric practice in the United States reconfigured the priorities for longstanding Zen communities, who were (and still tend to be) diffuse and dependent on lineage bearing. The esoteric character of Zen practice in the U.S. is a response to several challenges in a “western” market economy- informed society. Challenges from the mindfulness industry, its minority status in a broadly Abrahamic society, and the struggle to understand the notion of tradition while in dialog with the main Soto Zen tradition in Japan present unique hermeneutical categories for Zen in America, prompting a reckoning with the fundamental principles of Mahayana Buddhism and the tenuous pluralism operative in American society. Full article

With the continued growth in wind power installed capacity and electricity generation, accurate wind power forecasting has become increasingly critical for power system stability and economic operations. Currently, short-term wind power forecasting often employs deep learning models following modal decomposition of wind power time series. However, the optimal length of the time series used for decomposition remains unclear. To address this issue, this paper proposes a short-term wind power forecasting method that integrates improved modal decomposition with deep learning techniques. First, the historical wind power series is segmented using the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) method. Next, the segmented series is decomposed using an enhanced Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN) to extract multiple modal components. High-frequency oscillatory components are then further decomposed using Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), and the resulting modes are clustered using the K-means algorithm. The reconstructed components are subsequently input into a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network for prediction, and the final forecast is obtained by aggregating the outputs of the individual modes. The proposed method is validated using historical wind power data from a wind farm. Experimental results demonstrate that this approach enhances forecasting accuracy, supports grid power balance, and increases the economic benefits for wind farm operators in electricity markets. Full article

Economic systems face critical challenges, including widening income inequality, unemployment driven by automation, mounting public debt, and environmental degradation. This study introduces Economocracy as a transformative framework aimed at addressing these systemic issues by integrating democratic principles into economic decision-making to achieve social equity, economic efficiency, and environmental sustainability. The research focuses on two core mechanisms: Economic Productive Resets (EPRs) and Economic Periodic Injections (EPIs). EPRs facilitate proportional redistribution of resources to reduce income disparities, while EPIs target investments to stimulate job creation, mitigate automion-related job displacement, and support sustainable development. The study employs a theoretical and analytical methodology, developing mathematical models to quantify the impact of EPRs and EPIs on key economic indicators, including the Gini coefficient for inequality, unemployment rates, average wages, and job displacement due to automation. Hypothetical scenarios simulate baseline conditions, EPR implementation, and the combined application of EPRs and EPIs. The methodology is threefold: (1) a mathematical–theoretical validation of the Cycle of Money framework, establishing internal consistency; (2) an econometric analysis using global historical data (2000–2023) to evaluate the correlation between GNI per capita, Gini coefficient, and average wages; and (3) scenario simulations and Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimates to test the systemic impact of implementing EPR/EPI policies on inequality and labor outcomes. The models are further strengthened through tools such as OLS regression, and Impulse results to assess causality and dynamic interactions. Empirical results confirm that EPR/EPI can substantially reduce income inequality and unemployment, while increasing wage levels, findings supported by both the theoretical architecture and data-driven outcomes. Results demonstrate that Economocracy can significantly lower income inequality, reduce unemployment, increase wages, and mitigate automation’s effects on the labor market. These findings highlight Economocracy’s potential as a viable alternative to traditional economic systems, offering a sustainable pathway that harmonizes growth, social justice, and environmental stewardship in the global economy. Economocracy demonstrates potential to reduce debt per capita by increasing the efficiency of public resource allocation and enhancing average income levels. As EPIs stimulate employment and productivity while EPRs moderate inequality, the resulting economic growth expands the tax base and alleviates fiscal pressures. These dynamics lead to lower per capita debt burdens over time. The analysis is situated within the broader discourse of institutional economics to demonstrate that Economocracy is not merely a policy correction but a new economic system akin to democracy in political life. Full article

A just and sustainable energy transition in historically coal-dependent regions like Kentucky requires more than the adoption of new technologies and market-based solutions. This study uses a stated preferences approach to evaluate public support for various attributes of energy transition programs, revealing broad backing for moving away from coal, as indicated by a negative willingness to pay (WTP) for the status quo (–USD 4.63). Key findings show strong bipartisan support for solar energy, with Democrats showing the highest WTP at USD 8.29, followed closely by Independents/Others at USD 8.22, and Republicans at USD 8.08. Wind energy also garnered support, particularly among Republicans (USD 4.04), who may view it as more industry-compatible and less ideologically polarizing. Job creation was a dominant priority across political affiliations, especially for Independents (USD 9.07), indicating a preference for tangible, near-term economic benefits. Similarly, preserving cultural values tied to coal received support among Independents/Others (USD 4.98), emphasizing the importance of place-based identity in shaping preferences. In contrast, social support programs (e.g., job retraining) and certain post-mining land uses (e.g., recreation and conservation) were less favored, possibly due to their abstract nature, delayed benefits, and political framing. Findings from Kentucky offer insights for other coal-reliant states like Wyoming, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Illinois. Ultimately, equitable transitions must integrate local voices, address cultural and economic realities, and ensure community-driven planning and investment. Full article

In the Italian intra-day electricity market (MI-XBID), where energy positions can be adjusted up to one hour before delivery, imbalance charges due to forecast errors from non-programmable renewable sources represent a critical issue. This work focuses on photovoltaic (PV) systems, whose production variability makes them particularly sensitive to forecast accuracy. To address these challenges, a comprehensive methodology for assessing and mitigating imbalance penalties by integrating a short-term PV forecasting model with a battery energy storage system is proposed. Unlike conventional approaches that focus exclusively on improving statistical accuracy, this study emphasizes the economic and regulatory impact of forecast errors under the current Italian imbalance settlement framework. A hybrid physical-artificial neural network is developed to forecast PV power one hour in advance, combining historical production data and clear-sky irradiance estimates. The resulting imbalances are analyzed using regulatory tolerance thresholds. Simulation results show that, by adopting a control strategy aimed at maintaining the battery’s state of charge around 50%, imbalance penalties can be completely eliminated using a storage system sized for just over 2 equivalent hours of storage capacity. The methodology provides a practical tool for market participants to quantify the benefits of storage integration and can be generalized to other electricity markets where tolerance bands for imbalances are applied. Full article

As the world’s largest developing and carbon-emitting country, China is accelerating its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction process, and it is of vital importance in achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. This paper examines the historical development and current operation of China’s carbon emissions trading market (CETM). The current progress of research on the implementation of carbon emissions trading policy (CETP) is described in four dimensions: environment, economy, innovation, and society. The results show that CETP generates clear environmental and social benefits but exhibits mixed economic and innovation effects. Furthermore, this paper analyses the challenges of China’s carbon market, including the green paradox, the low carbon price, the imperfections in cap setting and allocation of allowances, the small scope of coverage, and the weakness of the legal supervision system. Ultimately, this paper proposes recommendations for fostering China’s CETM with the anticipation of offering a comprehensive outlook for future research. Full article

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is a key metric widely applied in market risk assessment and regulatory compliance under the Basel III framework. This study compares two Monte Carlo-based VaR models using publicly available equity data: a return-based model calibrated to historical portfolio volatility, and a CAPM-style factor-based model that simulates risk via systematic factor exposures. The two models are applied to a technology-sector portfolio and evaluated under historical and rolling backtesting frameworks. Under the Basel III backtesting framework, both initially fall into the red zone, with 13 VaR violations. With rolling-window estimation, the return-based model shows modest improvement but remains in the red zone (11 exceptions), while the factor-based model reduces exceptions to eight, placing it into the yellow zone. These results demonstrate the advantages of incorporating factor structures for more stable exception behavior and improved regulatory performance. The proposed framework, fully transparent and reproducible, offers practical relevance for internal validation, educational use, and model benchmarking. Full article

This study evaluates the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality REITs using multi-factor asset pricing models and downside risk measures with the aim of assessing their diversification potential and crisis sensitivity. Unlike prior studies that examine REITs in aggregate, this study isolates Hospitality REITs to explore their unique cyclical and macroeconomic sensitivities. This study looks at the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in relation to more general REIT indexes and the S&P 500 Index. The study reveals that monthly returns of Hospitality REITs increasingly move in tandem with the stock markets during financial crises, which reduces their historical function as portfolio diversifiers. Investing in Hospitality REITs exposes one to the hospitality sector; however, these investments carry notable risks and provide little protection, particularly during economic upheavals. Furthermore, the study reveals that Hospitality REITs underperform on a risk-adjusted basis relative to benchmark indexes. The monthly returns of REITs show significant volatility during the post-COVID-19 era, which causes return-to-risk ratios to be below those of benchmark indexes. Estimates from multi-factor models indicate negative alpha values across conditional models, indicating that macroeconomic variables cause unremunerated risks. This industry shows great sensitivity to market beta and size and value determinants. Hospitality REITs’ susceptibility comes from their showing the most possibility for exceptional losses across asset classes under Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CvaR) downside risk assessments. The findings have implications for investors and portfolio managers, suggesting that Hospitality REITs may not offer consistent diversification benefits during downturns but can serve a tactical role in procyclical investment strategies. Full article

Organic farming represents a paradigm that emphasises a balance between production and environmental sustainability. In the European Union (EU), organic farming has evolved into a global production system with harmonised standards and increasing market demand. Compared with conventional agriculture, it produces greater environmental benefits. The European Green Deal and the Farm to Fork (F2F) strategy highlight the role of organic farming in achieving the EU’s climate and environmental goals, aiming to use at least 25% of the total agricultural area for organic farming by 2030. This research assesses the contributions of Member States towards achieving the objectives of the European Green Deal and F2F strategy and increasing the number of organic farming areas in the future. The research assessed the performance of EU Member States during the period of 2018–2022 and for the projected period up to 2030, using indicators outlined in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) Strategic Plan. EU Member States were classified by their historical growth in organic farming areas and their required future performance to meet targets. The results showed that the increase in organic farming areas across the EU is a sign of a shift towards more sustainable farming, although performance varied among Member States. Overall, performance tended to improve in seventeen Member States, remained stable in nine, and declined in only one. Full article

The escalating global crisis of antimicrobial resistance, responsible for approximately 1.27 million deaths in 2019, has catalyzed renewed interest in bacteriophage therapy as a viable therapeutic alternative. With projections indicating that drug-resistant bacteria could cause over 39 million deaths worldwide by 2050, developing alternative antimicrobial strategies has become critically urgent. This comprehensive review examines the scientific foundation of bacteriophage therapy, traces its historical development from early Soviet applications through contemporary regulatory frameworks, and provides strategic guidance for developers seeking FDA approval for bacteriophage-based therapeutics. We analyze the current regulatory landscape across major jurisdictions, including manufacturing requirements and clinical development pathways essential for successful market authorization. Approximately 90 clinical trials involving bacteriophages are ongoing worldwide, with 41 studies in the United States demonstrating significant momentum in this field. Full article

The study relies on an extensive dataset (≈1.86 million news headlines) to investigate the heterogeneity and predictive power of explicit sentiment signals (TextBlob, VADER, and FinBERT) and implied sentiment (VIX) for stock market trends. We find that news content predominantly consists of objective or neutral information, with only a small portion carrying subjective or emotive weight. There is a structural market bias toward upswings (bullish market states). Market behavior appears anticipatory rather than reactive: forward-looking implied sentiment captures a substantial share (≈45–50%) of the variation in stock returns. By contrast, sentiment scores, even when disaggregated into firm- and non-firm-specific subscores, lack robust predictive power. However, weekend and holiday sentiment contains modest yet valuable market signals. Algorithm-wise, Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) stands out in both classification (bullish vs. bearish) and regression tasks. Neither FinBERT news sentiment, historical returns, nor implied volatility offer a consistently exploitable edge over market efficiency. Thus, our findings lend empirical support to both the weak-form and semi-strong forms of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. In the realm of exploitable trading strategies, markets remain an enigma against systematic alpha. Full article