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Keywords = historic floods

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14 pages, 8139 KiB  
Article
Flooded Historical Mines of the Pitkäranta Area (Karelia, Russia): Heavy Metal(loid)s in Water
by Evgeniya Sidkina and Artem Konyshev
Water 2025, 17(16), 2418; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17162418 - 15 Aug 2025
Abstract
Mining activities have long-term impacts on the environment even after the active stage. Historical mines developed in the 19th and 20th centuries for tin, copper, and mainly iron ore are located in the Pitkäranta area (Karelia, Russia). These objects are considered in our [...] Read more.
Mining activities have long-term impacts on the environment even after the active stage. Historical mines developed in the 19th and 20th centuries for tin, copper, and mainly iron ore are located in the Pitkäranta area (Karelia, Russia). These objects are considered in our research as natural–anthropogenic sites of long-term water–rock interaction. Waters from flooded mines are the subject of this research. Redox conditions, pH, dissolved oxygen content, conductivity, and water temperature were determined during field work. The chemical composition of natural waters was determined by ICP-MS, ICP-AES, ion chromatography, potentiometric titration, and spectrophotometry. Our investigation showed that the mine waters are fresh and predominantly calcium–magnesium hydrocarbonate; most samples showed elevated sulfate ion contents. Circumneutral pH values and the absence of extremely high concentrations of heavy metals indicate neutral mine drainage. However the calculation of the accumulation coefficient showed the highest levels for siderophile elements relative to the corresponding data of the geochemical regional background. Moreover, zinc has the highest content in the series of heavy metal(loid)s considered. The maximum concentration of zinc was determined in the water of one of the shafts of the Lupikko mine, i.e., 5205 µg/L. The accumulation of heavy metals occurs in the process of long-term interaction of water–rock–organic matter under conductive redox conditions. Overall, the research highlighted the relevance of investigating the geochemistry of historical mines in the Pitkäranta area both from the perspective of environmental safety and the preservation of mining sites for scientific and educational purposes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Water Quality and Contamination)
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25 pages, 1040 KiB  
Review
Establishing a Sea Level Rise-Adjusted Design Flood Elevation for Buildings: A Comparative Study of Methods
by Wendy Meguro, Josephine I. Briones, Eric Teeples and Charles H. Fletcher
Water 2025, 17(16), 2376; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17162376 - 11 Aug 2025
Viewed by 319
Abstract
Coastal high tide flooding doubled in the U.S. between 2000 and 2022 and sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change will dramatically increase exposure and vulnerability to flooding in the future. However, standards for elevating buildings in flood hazard areas, such as [...] Read more.
Coastal high tide flooding doubled in the U.S. between 2000 and 2022 and sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change will dramatically increase exposure and vulnerability to flooding in the future. However, standards for elevating buildings in flood hazard areas, such as base flood elevations set by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, are based on historical flood data and do not account for future SLR. To increase flood resilience in flood hazard areas, federal, state, regional, and municipal planning initiatives are developing guidance to increase elevation requirements for occupied spaces in buildings. However, methods to establish a flood elevation that specifically accounts for rising sea levels (or sea level rise-adjusted design flood elevation (SLR-DFE)) are not standardized. Many municipalities or designers lack clear guidance on developing or incorporating SLR-DFEs. This study compares guidance documents, policies, and methods for establishing an SLR-DFE. The authors found that the initiatives vary in author, water level measurement starting point, SLR scenario and timeframe, SLR adjustment, freeboard, design flood elevation, application (geography and building type), and whether it is required or recommended. The tables and graph compare the different initiatives, providing a useful summary for policymakers and practitioners to develop SLR-DFE standards. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Risk Management, Sea Level Rise and Coastal Impacts)
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29 pages, 16159 KiB  
Article
Living with the River: The Role of Bridges in Shaping Valencia’s Urban Form Until 1957
by María-Montiel Durá-Aras, Eric Gielen, José-Sergio Palencia-Jiménez and Stergios-Aristoteles Mitoulis
Land 2025, 14(8), 1625; https://doi.org/10.3390/land14081625 - 11 Aug 2025
Viewed by 209
Abstract
This study offers a novel perspective on the role of bridges as agents of urban transformation by examining their influence on the morphological development of Valencia (Spain) from the 13th century to the catastrophic flood of 1957. Traditionally viewed as mere connective infrastructure, [...] Read more.
This study offers a novel perspective on the role of bridges as agents of urban transformation by examining their influence on the morphological development of Valencia (Spain) from the 13th century to the catastrophic flood of 1957. Traditionally viewed as mere connective infrastructure, bridges are reframed here as key structuring elements that shaped urban expansion, resilience strategies, and socio-spatial dynamics. Through an innovative classification based on stages of bridges, the research integrates historical cartography, cadastral data, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to trace how successive waves of bridge construction aligned with distinct socio-political, environmental, and technological contexts. The study demonstrates that bridge development not only facilitated territorial connectivity but also directed urban growth patterns, enabled functional zoning, and responded adaptively to flood risk and demographic pressure. The case of Valencia is particularly significant in light of contemporary challenges in climate adaptation and sustainable urban planning. By unveiling bridges as morphological and functional drivers of urban form, this research offers transferable insights for cities worldwide grappling with the legacy of riverine geographies and the pressures of resilient transformation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Morphology: A Perspective from Space (Second Edition))
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15 pages, 2033 KiB  
Article
Human-Induced Shifts in Yellow River Flooding: Population Threshold Effects in the Loess Plateau’s Primary Sediment Source Area (934 CE)
by Tao Huang and Yabin Li
Hydrology 2025, 12(8), 210; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology12080210 - 11 Aug 2025
Viewed by 265
Abstract
Flooding frequency in the lower Yellow River (YR) exhibited an abrupt increase post-934 CE, causing catastrophic societal disruptions. However, the quantitative relationship between this abrupt increase and the intensification of human activity in the midstream Loess Plateau (LP)’s Primary Sediment Source Area (PSSA) [...] Read more.
Flooding frequency in the lower Yellow River (YR) exhibited an abrupt increase post-934 CE, causing catastrophic societal disruptions. However, the quantitative relationship between this abrupt increase and the intensification of human activity in the midstream Loess Plateau (LP)’s Primary Sediment Source Area (PSSA) remains uncertain. This study systematically evaluates the threshold effects of human activities on YR flooding through multi-proxy historical records, GIS-based spatial analysis, and nonparametric statistical tests. The results show that from 934 to 1102 CE, the population density in the PSSA surged from 1.3 to 19.8 persons/km2 (a 14.2-fold increase, p = 0.005). A 2400-year-scale comparison using 934 CE as the breakpoint revealed that the mean population density in this region increased from 5.2 to 51 persons/km2 (a 9.8-fold increase). This dramatic population surge drove a 1.4-fold increase in the cultivation rate (from 8.6% to 20.5%), leading to a 5.4-fold rise in sediment yield (1.6 × 108 → 1.02 × 109 t/yr, p = 0.035), a 10-fold acceleration in downstream sedimentation rate (0.3 → 3.3 cm/yr, p = 0.001), and ultimately a 5.5-fold escalation in flooding frequency (from 1.6 to 10.4 events per 20 years, p < 0.0001). The study identifies 19.8 persons/km2 as the ecological pressure threshold. It proposes converting population density to ecological pressure equivalents adjusted for soil–water conservation coverage (e.g., terracing/afforestation). When the equivalent ecological pressure exceeds 19.8 persons/km2, pre-defined sediment control measures (e.g., tillage restrictions/afforestation mandates) should be enforced in the PSSA. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Water Resources and Risk Management)
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33 pages, 42384 KiB  
Article
Simulated Biogeochemical Effects of Seawater Restoration on Diked Salt Marshes, Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts, U.S.
by Craig J. Brown
Soil Syst. 2025, 9(3), 89; https://doi.org/10.3390/soilsystems9030089 - 8 Aug 2025
Viewed by 356
Abstract
Efforts have been underway worldwide to reintroduce seawater to many historically diked salt marshes for restoration of tidal flow and associated estuarine habitat. Seawater restoration to a diked Cape Cod marsh was simulated using the computer program PHREEQC based on previously conducted microcosm [...] Read more.
Efforts have been underway worldwide to reintroduce seawater to many historically diked salt marshes for restoration of tidal flow and associated estuarine habitat. Seawater restoration to a diked Cape Cod marsh was simulated using the computer program PHREEQC based on previously conducted microcosm experiments to better understand the associated timing and sequence of multiple biogeochemical reactions and their implications to aquatic health. Model simulations show that acidic, reducing waters with high concentrations of sorbed ferrous iron (Fe[II]), aluminum (Al), sulfide (S2−), ammonia (NH4+ + NH3), and phosphate (PO43−) are released through desorption and sediment weathering following salination that can disrupt aquatic habitat. Models were developed for one-dimensional reactive transport of solutes in diked, flooded (DF) marsh sediments and subaerially exposed, diked, drained (DD) sediments by curve matching porewater solute concentrations and adjusting the sedimentary organic matter (SOM) degradation rates based on the timing and magnitude of Fe(II) and S2− concentrations. Simulated salination of the DD sediments, in particular, showed a large release of Al, Fe(II), NH4+, and PO43−; the redox shift to reductive dissolution provided higher rates of SOM oxidation. The sediment type, iron source, and seasonal timing associated with seawater restoration can affect the chemical speciation and toxicity of constituents to aquatic habitat. The constituents of concern and their associated complex biogeochemical reactions simulated in this study are directly relevant to the increasingly common coastal marsh salination, either through tidal restoration or rising sea level. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Adsorption Processes in Soils and Sediments)
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23 pages, 11564 KiB  
Article
Cloud-Based Assessment of Flash Flood Susceptibility, Peak Runoff, and Peak Discharge on a National Scale with Google Earth Engine (GEE)
by Ivica Milevski, Bojana Aleksova, Aleksandar Valjarević and Pece Gorsevski
Atmosphere 2025, 16(8), 945; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16080945 - 7 Aug 2025
Viewed by 771
Abstract
Flash floods, exacerbated by climate change and land use alterations, are among the most destructive natural hazards globally, leading to significant damage and loss of life. In this context, the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI), which is a terrain and land surface-based model, [...] Read more.
Flash floods, exacerbated by climate change and land use alterations, are among the most destructive natural hazards globally, leading to significant damage and loss of life. In this context, the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI), which is a terrain and land surface-based model, and Google Earth Engine (GEE) were used to assess flood-prone zones across North Macedonia’s watersheds. The presented GEE-based assessment was accomplished by a custom script that automates the FFPI calculation process by integrating key factors derived from publicly available sources. These factors, which define susceptibility to torrential floods, include slope (Copernicus GLO-30 DEM), land cover (Copernicus GLO-30 DEM), soil type (SoilGrids), vegetation (ESA World Cover), and erodibility (CHIRPS). The spatial distribution of average FFPI values across 1396 small catchments (10–100 km2) revealed that a total of 45.4% of the area exhibited high to very high susceptibility, with notable spatial variability. The CHIRPS rainfall data (2000–2024) that combines satellite imagery and in situ measurements was used to estimate peak 24 h runoff and discharge. To improve the accuracy of CHIRPS, the data were adjusted by 30–50% to align with meteorological station records, along with normalized FFPI values as runoff coefficients. Validation against 328 historical river flood and flash flood records confirmed that 73.2% of events aligned with moderate to very high flash flood susceptibility catchments, underscoring the model’s reliability. Thus, the presented cloud-based scenario highlights the potential of the GEE’s efficacy in scalability and robustness for flash flood modeling and regional risk management at national scale. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Biosphere/Hydrosphere/Land–Atmosphere Interactions)
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20 pages, 2731 KiB  
Article
Flood Hazard Assessment and Monitoring in Bangladesh: An Integrated Approach for Disaster Risk Mitigation
by Kashfia Nowrin Choudhury and Helmut Yabar
Earth 2025, 6(3), 90; https://doi.org/10.3390/earth6030090 - 5 Aug 2025
Viewed by 485
Abstract
Floods are among the most devastating hydrometeorological natural disasters worldwide, causing massive infrastructure and economic loss in low-lying, flood-prone developing countries like Bangladesh. Effective disaster mitigation relies on organized and detailed flood damage information to facilitate emergency evacuation, coordinate relief distribution, and formulate [...] Read more.
Floods are among the most devastating hydrometeorological natural disasters worldwide, causing massive infrastructure and economic loss in low-lying, flood-prone developing countries like Bangladesh. Effective disaster mitigation relies on organized and detailed flood damage information to facilitate emergency evacuation, coordinate relief distribution, and formulate an effective disaster management policy. Nevertheless, the nation confronts considerable obstacles due to insufficient historical flood damage data and the underdevelopment of near-real-time (NRT) flood monitoring systems. This study addresses this issue by developing a replicable methodology for flood damage assessment and NRT monitoring systems. Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, we analyzed flood events from 2019 to 2023, integrating geospatial layers such as roads, cropland, etc. Analysis of flood events over the five-year period revealed substantial impacts, with 21.60% of the total area experiencing inundation. This flooding affected 6.92% of cropland and 4.16% of the population. Furthermore, 18.10% of the road network, spanning over 21,000 km within the study area, was also affected. This system has the potential to enhance emergency response capabilities during flood events and inform more effective disaster mitigation policies. Full article
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19 pages, 5404 KiB  
Article
Combined Effects of Flood Disturbances and Nutrient Enrichment Prompt Aquatic Vegetation Expansion: Sediment Evidence from a Floodplain Lake
by Zhuoxuan Gu, Yan Li, Jingxiang Li, Zixin Liu, Yingying Chen, Yajing Wang, Erik Jeppesen and Xuhui Dong
Plants 2025, 14(15), 2381; https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14152381 - 2 Aug 2025
Viewed by 498
Abstract
Aquatic macrophytes are a vital component of lake ecosystems, profoundly influencing ecosystem structure and function. Under future scenarios of more frequent extreme floods and intensified lake eutrophication, aquatic macrophytes will face increasing challenges. Therefore, understanding aquatic macrophyte responses to flood disturbances and nutrient [...] Read more.
Aquatic macrophytes are a vital component of lake ecosystems, profoundly influencing ecosystem structure and function. Under future scenarios of more frequent extreme floods and intensified lake eutrophication, aquatic macrophytes will face increasing challenges. Therefore, understanding aquatic macrophyte responses to flood disturbances and nutrient enrichment is crucial for predicting future vegetation dynamics in lake ecosystems. This study focuses on Huangmaotan Lake, a Yangtze River floodplain lake, where we reconstructed 200-year successional trajectories of macrophyte communities and their driving mechanisms. With a multiproxy approach we analyzed a well-dated sediment core incorporating plant macrofossils, grain size, nutrient elements, heavy metals, and historical flood records from the watershed. The results demonstrate a significant shift in the macrophyte community, from species that existed before 1914 to species that existed by 2020. Unlike the widespread macrophyte degradation seen in most regional lakes, this lake has maintained clear-water plant dominance and experienced continuous vegetation expansion over the past 50 years. We attribute this to the interrelated effects of floods and the enrichment of ecosystems with nutrients. Specifically, our findings suggest that nutrient enrichment can mitigate the stress effects of floods on aquatic macrophytes, while flood disturbances help reduce excess nutrient concentrations in the water column. These findings offer applicable insights for aquatic vegetation restoration in the Yangtze River floodplain and other comparable lake systems worldwide. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Aquatic Plants and Wetland)
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25 pages, 3746 KiB  
Article
Empirical Modelling of Ice-Jam Flood Hazards Along the Mackenzie River in a Changing Climate
by Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, Sergio Gomez, Jad Saade, Brian Perry and Apurba Das
Water 2025, 17(15), 2288; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152288 - 1 Aug 2025
Viewed by 307
Abstract
This study introduces a novel methodology for assessing ice-jam flood hazards along river channels. It employs empirical equations that relate non-dimensional ice-jam stage to discharge, enabling the generation of an ensemble of longitudinal profiles of ice-jam backwater levels through Monte-Carlo simulations. These simulations [...] Read more.
This study introduces a novel methodology for assessing ice-jam flood hazards along river channels. It employs empirical equations that relate non-dimensional ice-jam stage to discharge, enabling the generation of an ensemble of longitudinal profiles of ice-jam backwater levels through Monte-Carlo simulations. These simulations produce non-exceedance probability profiles, which indicate the likelihood of various flood levels occurring due to ice jams. The flood levels associated with specific return periods were validated using historical gauge records. The empirical equations require input parameters such as channel width, slope, and thalweg elevation, which were obtained from bathymetric surveys. This approach is applied to assess ice-jam flood hazards by extrapolating data from a gauged reach at Fort Simpson to an ungauged reach at Jean Marie River along the Mackenzie River in Canada’s Northwest Territories. The analysis further suggests that climate change is likely to increase the severity of ice-jam flood hazards in both reaches by the end of the century. This methodology is applicable to other cold-region rivers in Canada and northern Europe, provided similar fluvial geomorphological and hydro-meteorological data are available, making it a valuable tool for ice-jam flood risk assessment in other ungauged areas. Full article
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18 pages, 392 KiB  
Article
Semantic Restoration of Snake-Slaying in Chan Buddhist Koan
by Yun Wang and Yulu Lv
Religions 2025, 16(8), 973; https://doi.org/10.3390/rel16080973 - 27 Jul 2025
Viewed by 395
Abstract
In the Chan Buddhism koan (gong’an 公案) tradition, the act of “slaying the snake” functions as a signature gesture imbued with complex, historically layered cultural meanings. Rather than merely examining its motivations, this paper emphasizes tracing the semantic transformations that this motif has [...] Read more.
In the Chan Buddhism koan (gong’an 公案) tradition, the act of “slaying the snake” functions as a signature gesture imbued with complex, historically layered cultural meanings. Rather than merely examining its motivations, this paper emphasizes tracing the semantic transformations that this motif has undergone across different historical contexts. It argues that “snake-slaying” operated variously as an imperial narrative strategy reinforcing ruling class ideology; as a form of popular resistance by commoners against flood-related disasters; as a dietary practice among aristocrats and literati seeking danyao (elixirs) 丹藥 for reclusion and transcendence; and ultimately, within the Chan tradition, as a method of spiritual cultivation whereby masters sever desires rooted in attachment to both selfhood and the Dharma. More specifically, first, as an imperial narrative logic, snake-slaying embodied exemplary power: both Liu Bang 劉邦 and Guizong 歸宗 enacted this discursive strategy, with Guizong’s legitimacy in slaying the snake deriving from the precedent set by Liu Bang. Second, as a folk strategy of demystification, snake-slaying acquired a moral aura—since the snake was perceived as malevolent force, their slaying appeared righteous and heroic. Finally, as a mode of self-cultivation among the aristocracy, snake-slaying laid the groundwork for its later internalization. In Daoism, slaying the snake was a means of cultivating the body; in Chan Buddhism, the act is elevated to a higher plane—becoming a way of cultivating the mind. This transformation unfolded naturally, as if predestined. In all cases, the internalization of the snake-slaying motif was not an overnight development: the cultural genes that preceded its appearance in the Chan tradition provided the fertile ground for its karmic maturation and discursive proliferation. Full article
15 pages, 68949 KiB  
Article
Hydraulic Modeling of Extreme Flow Events in a Boreal Regulated River to Assess Impact on Grayling Habitat
by M. Lovisa Sjöstedt, J. Gunnar I. Hellström, Anders G. Andersson and Jani Ahonen
Water 2025, 17(15), 2230; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152230 - 26 Jul 2025
Viewed by 359
Abstract
Climate change is projected to significantly alter hydrological conditions across the Northern Hemisphere, with increased precipitation variability, more intense rainfall events, and earlier, rain-driven spring floods in regions like northern Sweden. These changes will affect both natural ecosystems and hydropower-regulated rivers, particularly during [...] Read more.
Climate change is projected to significantly alter hydrological conditions across the Northern Hemisphere, with increased precipitation variability, more intense rainfall events, and earlier, rain-driven spring floods in regions like northern Sweden. These changes will affect both natural ecosystems and hydropower-regulated rivers, particularly during ecologically sensitive periods such as the grayling spawning season in late spring. This study examines the impact of extreme spring flow conditions on grayling spawning habitats by analyzing historical runoff data and simulating high-flow events using a 2D hydraulic model in Delft3D FM. Results show that previously suitable spawning areas became too deep or experienced flow velocities beyond ecological thresholds, rendering them unsuitable. These hydrodynamic shifts could have cascading effects on aquatic vegetation and food availability, ultimately threatening the survival and reproductive success of grayling populations. The findings underscore the importance of integrating ecological considerations into future water management and hydropower operation strategies in the face of climate-driven flow variability. Full article
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24 pages, 6552 KiB  
Article
Assessing Flooding from Changes in Extreme Rainfall: Using the Design Rainfall Approach in Hydrologic Modeling
by Anna M. Jalowska, Daniel E. Line, Tanya L. Spero, J. Jack Kurki-Fox, Barbara A. Doll, Jared H. Bowden and Geneva M. E. Gray
Water 2025, 17(15), 2228; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152228 - 26 Jul 2025
Viewed by 476
Abstract
Quantifying future changes in extreme events and associated flooding is challenging yet fundamental for stormwater managers. Along the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) is frequently exposed to catastrophic floods from extreme rainfall that is typically associated with tropical cyclones. This study [...] Read more.
Quantifying future changes in extreme events and associated flooding is challenging yet fundamental for stormwater managers. Along the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) is frequently exposed to catastrophic floods from extreme rainfall that is typically associated with tropical cyclones. This study presents a novel approach that uses rainfall data from five dynamically and statistically downscaled (DD and SD) global climate models under two scenarios to visualize a potential future extent of flooding in ENC. Here, we use DD data (at 36-km grid spacing) to compute future changes in precipitation intensity–duration–frequency (PIDF) curves at the end of the 21st century. These PIDF curves are further applied to observed rainfall from Hurricane Matthew—a landfalling storm that created widespread flooding across ENC in 2016—to project versions of “Matthew 2100” that reflect changes in extreme precipitation under those scenarios. Each Matthew-2100 rainfall distribution was then used in hydrologic models (HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS) to simulate “2100” discharges and flooding extents in the Neuse River Basin (4686 km2) in ENC. The results show that DD datasets better represented historical changes in extreme rainfall than SD datasets. The projected changes in ENC rainfall (up to 112%) exceed values published for the U.S. but do not exceed historical values. The peak discharges for Matthew-2100 could increase by 23–69%, with 0.4–3 m increases in water surface elevation and 8–57% increases in flooded area. The projected increases in flooding would threaten people, ecosystems, agriculture, infrastructure, and the economy throughout ENC. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Water and Climate Change)
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22 pages, 4836 KiB  
Article
Time-Variant Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph Based on Machine Learning Pretraining and Rainfall Spatiotemporal Patterns
by Wenyuan Dong, Guoli Wang, Guohua Liang and Bin He
Water 2025, 17(15), 2216; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152216 - 24 Jul 2025
Viewed by 348
Abstract
The hydrological response of a watershed is strongly influenced by the spatiotemporal dynamics of rainfall. Rainfall events of similar magnitude can produce markedly different flood processes due to variations in the spatiotemporal patterns of rainfall, posing significant challenges for flood forecasting under complex [...] Read more.
The hydrological response of a watershed is strongly influenced by the spatiotemporal dynamics of rainfall. Rainfall events of similar magnitude can produce markedly different flood processes due to variations in the spatiotemporal patterns of rainfall, posing significant challenges for flood forecasting under complex rainfall scenarios. Traditional methods typically rely on high-resolution or synthetic rainfall data to characterize the scale, direction and velocity of rainstorms, in order to analyze their impact on the flood process. These studies have shown that storms traveling along the main river channel tend to exert the greatest impact on flood processes. Therefore, tracking the movement of the rainfall center along the flow direction, especially when only rain gauge data are available, can reduce model complexity while maintaining forecast accuracy and improving model applicability. This study proposes a machine learning-based time-variable instantaneous unit hydrograph that integrates rainfall spatiotemporal dynamics using quantitative spatial indicators. To overcome limitations of traditional variable unit hydrograph methods, a pre-training and fine-tuning strategy is employed to link the unit hydrograph S-curve with rainfall spatial distribution. First, synthetic pre-training data were used to enable the machine learning model to learn the shape of the S-curve and its general pattern of variation with rainfall spatial distribution. Then, real flood data were employed to learn the actual runoff routing characteristics of the study area. The improved model allows the unit hydrograph to adapt dynamically to rainfall evolution during the flood event, effectively capturing hydrological responses under varying spatiotemporal patterns. The case study shows that the improved model exhibits superior performance across all runoff routing metrics under spatiotemporal rainfall variability. The improved model increased the simulation qualified rate for historical flood events, with significant rainfall center movement during the event from 63% to 90%. This study deepens the understanding of how rainfall dynamics influence watershed response and enhances hourly-scale flood forecasting, providing support for disaster early warning with strong theoretical and practical significance. Full article
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19 pages, 8896 KiB  
Article
Future Residential Water Use and Management Under Climate Change Using Bayesian Neural Networks
by Young-Ho Seo, Jang Hyun Sung, Joon-Seok Park, Byung-Sik Kim and Junehyeong Park
Water 2025, 17(15), 2179; https://doi.org/10.3390/w17152179 - 22 Jul 2025
Viewed by 280
Abstract
This study projects future Residential Water Use (RWU) under climate change scenarios using a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) model that quantifies the relationship between observed temperatures and RWU. Eighteen Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) scenario were used [...] Read more.
This study projects future Residential Water Use (RWU) under climate change scenarios using a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) model that quantifies the relationship between observed temperatures and RWU. Eighteen Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) scenario were used to assess the uncertainties across these models. The findings indicate that RWU in Republic of Korea (ROK) is closely linked to temperature changes, with significant increases projected in the distant future (F3), especially during summer. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, RWU is expected to increase by up to 10.3% by the late 21st century (2081–2100) compared to the historical baseline. The model achieved a root mean square error (RMSE) of 11,400 m3/month, demonstrating reliable predictive performance. Unlike conventional deep learning models, the BNN provides probabilistic forecasts with uncertainty bounds, enhancing its suitability for climate-sensitive resource planning. This study also projects inflows to the Paldang Dam, revealing an overall increase in future water availability. However, winter water security may decline due to decreased inflow and minimal changes in RWU. This study suggests enhancing summer precipitation storage while considering downstream flood risks. Demand management strategies are recommended for addressing future winter water security challenges. This research highlights the importance of projecting RWU under climate change scenarios and emphasizes the need for strategic water resource management in ROK. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Water and Climate Change)
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34 pages, 24111 KiB  
Article
Natural and Anthropic Constraints on Historical Morphological Dynamics in the Middle Stretch of the Po River (Northern Italy)
by Laura Turconi, Barbara Bono, Carlo Mambriani, Lucia Masotti, Fabio Stocchi and Fabio Luino
Sustainability 2025, 17(14), 6608; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17146608 - 19 Jul 2025
Viewed by 574
Abstract
Geo-historical information deduced from geo-iconographical resources, derived from extensive research and the selection of cartographies and historical documents, enabled the investigation of the natural and anthropic transformations of the perifluvial area of the Po River in the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy). This territory, significant [...] Read more.
Geo-historical information deduced from geo-iconographical resources, derived from extensive research and the selection of cartographies and historical documents, enabled the investigation of the natural and anthropic transformations of the perifluvial area of the Po River in the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy). This territory, significant in terms of its historical, cultural, and environmental contexts, for centuries has been the scene of flood events. These have characterised the morphological and dynamic variability in the riverbed and relative floodplain. The close relationship between man and river is well documented: the interference induced by anthropic activity has alternated with the sometimes-damaging effects of river dynamics. The attention given to the fluvial region of the Po River and its main tributaries, in a peculiar lowland sector near Parma, is critical for understanding spatial–temporal changes contributing to current geo-hydrological risks. A GIS project outlined the geomorphological aspects that define the considerable variations in the course of the Po River (involving width reductions of up to 66% and length changes of up to 14%) and its confluences from the 16th to the 21st century. Knowledge of anthropic modifications is essential as a tool within land-use planning and enhancing community awareness in risk-mitigation activities and strategic management. This study highlights the importance of interdisciplinary geo-historical studies that are complementary in order to decode river dynamics in damaging flood events and latent hazards in an altered river environment. Full article
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