Search Results (891)

A multilayer linear response model (MLRM) is proposed to generate time-series data based on linear response theory. The proposed MLRM is designed to generate data for anomalous dynamics by extending the conventional single-layer linear response model (SLRM) into multiple layers. While the SLRM is a linear equation with respect to external forces, the MLRM introduces nonlinear interactions, enabling the generation of a wider range of dynamics. The MLRM is applicable to various fields, such as finance, as it does not rely on machine learning techniques and maintains interpretability. We investigated whether the MLRM could generate anomalous dynamics, such as those observed during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, using pre-pandemic data. Furthermore, an analysis of the log returns and realized volatility derived from the MLRM-generated data demonstrated that both exhibited heavy-tailed characteristics, consistent with empirical observations. These results indicate that the MLRM can effectively reproduce the extreme fluctuations and tail behavior seen during high-volatility periods. Full article

Redwood (Sequoia sempervirens (Lamb. ex D. Don) Endl.) is a fast-growing, long-lived conifer native to a narrow coastal zone along the western seaboard of the United States. Redwood can accumulate very high amounts of carbon in plantation settings and continuous cover forestry (CCF) represents a highly profitable option, particularly for small-scale forest growers in the North Island of New Zealand. We evaluated the profitability of conceptual CCF regimes using two case study forests: Blue Mountain (109 ha, Taranaki Region, New Zealand) and Spring Creek (467 ha, Manawatu-Whanganui Region, New Zealand). We ran a strategic harvest scheduling model for both properties and used its results to guide a tactical-spatially explicit model harvesting small 0.7 ha units over a period that spanned 35 to 95 years after planting. The internal rates of return (IRRs) were 9.16 and 10.40% for Blue Mountain and Spring Creek, respectively, exceeding those considered robust for other forest species in New Zealand. The study showed that small owners could benefit from carbon revenue during the first 35 years after planting and then switch to a steady annual income from timber, maintaining a relatively constant carbon stock under a continuous cover forestry regime. Implementing adjacency constraints with a minimum green-up period of five years proved feasible. Although small coupes posed operational problems, which were linked to roading and harvesting, these issues were not insurmountable and could be managed with appropriate operational planning. Full article

Frequency analysis is essential for designing hydraulic structures and managing water resources, as it helps assess hydrological extremes. However, changes in river basins can impact their accuracy, complicating the link between discharge and return periods. This study aims to comprehensively assess the probability characteristics of long-term M-day maximum/minimum discharges in the Carpathian region of Slovakia. We analyze the long-term data from 26 gauging stations covering 90 years of observation. Slovak rivers show considerable intra-annual variability, especially between the summer–autumn (SA) and winter–spring (WS) seasons. To allow consistent comparisons, we apply a uniform methodology to estimate T-year daily maximum and minimum specific discharges over durations of 1 and 7 days for both seasons. Our findings indicate that 1-day maximum specific discharges are generally higher during the SA season compared to the WS season. The 7-day minimum specific discharges are lower during the WS season compared to the SA season. Slovakia’s diverse orographic and climatic conditions cause significant spatial variability in extreme discharges. However, the estimated T-year 7-day minimum and 1-day maximum specific discharges, based on the mean specific discharge and the altitude of the water gauge, exhibit certain nonlinear dependences. These relationships could support the indirect estimation of T-year M-day discharges in regions with similar runoff characteristics. Full article

Background/Objective: In-hospital cardiac arrest has high incidence and poor survival rates, posing a significant healthcare challenge. It is important to intervene in the hours before the cardiac arrest to prevent poor outcomes. The modified early warning score (MEWS) is a validated tool for identifying a deteriorating patient. It is an aggregate of vital signs and level of consciousness. We retrospectively evaluated MEWS for trends that might predict patient outcomes. Methods: We performed a single-center, one-year, retrospective study. A comprehensive review was conducted for patients aged 18 years and above who experienced a cardiac arrest. Cases that occurred within an intensive care unit, emergency department, during a procedure, or outside the hospital were excluded. A total of 87 cases met our predefined inclusion criteria. We collected data at 12 h, 6 h and 1 h time periods prior to the cardiac arrest. A trend analysis using a linear model with analysis of variance with Bonferroni correction was performed. Results: Out of 87 patients included in the study, 59 (67.8%) had an immediate return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). Among those who achieved ROSC, 41 (69.5%) died during the admission. Only 20.7% of the patients that sustained a cardiac arrest survived to discharge. A significant increase in the average MEWS was noted from the 12 h period (MEWS = 3.95 ± 2.4) to the 1 h period (MEWS = 5.98 ± 3.5) (p ≤ 0.001) and the 6 h period (4.65 ± 2.6) to the 1 h period (5.98 ± 3.5) (p = 0.023) prior to cardiac arrest. Conclusions: An increase in the MEWS may be a valuable tool in identifying at-risk patients and provides an opportunity to intervene at least 6 h before a cardiac arrest event. Further research is needed to validate the results of our study. Full article

Osteochondritis Dissecans (OCD) is a joint condition characterized by damage to the surface of the joint and the underlying subchondral bone, leading to early-onset osteoarthritis. It predominantly affects the knee, elbow, and ankle, with higher prevalence in juveniles actively participating in sports, which complicates the condition due to slow healing processes and prolonged restrictions on physical activities. This review aims to summarize current knowledge on OCD in athletes, with emphasis on sport-specific risk factors, diagnosis, and treatment, to support clinical decision-making and future research. We conducted searches in the PubMed and Embase databases, covering the period from 2014 to 2024. The keywords used in the search covered most common sports in combination with term osteochondritis dissecans. This review examines the impacts of various sports on the development of OCD, analyzing prevalence and risk factors, with a focus on sports-specific risks across athletic disciplines like football, basketball, baseball, and gymnastics. The significance of early detection, intervention, and sport-specific conditioning is underscored to prevent the condition and manage it effectively. Moreover, the review highlights the positive prognosis for athletes, particularly adolescents, recovering from OCD, with a high rate of return to sport. Understanding the sports-specific risks, ensuring early intervention, and adopting a cautious, stepwise return to sport are critical for managing OCD effectively, thereby safeguarding the health and careers of athletes. Full article

Crop fidelity is a desirable trait for managed pollinators and is influenced by factors like competing forage sources and colony knowledge of the surrounding environment. In European honey bees (Apis mellifera L.), colonies deployed when the crop is flowering display the highest fidelity. We tested for a similar outcome using a stingless bee species that is being increasingly used as a managed pollinator in Australian macadamia orchards. We observed Tetragonula carbonaria (Smith) colonies deployed in macadamia orchards at three time points: (1) before crop flowering (“permanent”), (2) early flowering (“early”), and (3) later in the flowering period (“later”). We captured returning pollen foragers weekly and estimated crop fidelity from the proportion of macadamia pollen they collected, using light microscopy. Pollen foraging activity was also assessed via weekly hive entrance filming. The early and later introduced colonies initially exhibited high fidelity, collecting more macadamia pollen than the permanent colonies. In most cases, the permanent colonies were already collecting diverse pollen species from the local environment and took longer to shift over to macadamia. Pollen diversity increased over time in all colonies, which was associated with an increase in the proportion of pollen foragers. Our results indicate that stingless bees can initially prioritize a mass-flowering crop, even when flowering levels are low, but that they subsequently reduce fidelity over time. Our findings will inform pollinator management strategies to help growers maximize returns from pollinator-dependent crops like macadamia. Full article

Societies are aiming to have a higher ecological consciousness in wastewater treatment operations and achieve a more sustainable future. With this said, global demands for larger quantities of resources and the consequent waste generated will inevitably lead to the exhaustion of current municipal wastewater treatment works. The utilization of biosolids (particularly microbial proteins) from wastewater treatment operations could generate a sustainable bio-adhesive for the wood industry, reduce carbon footprint, mitigate health concerns related to the use of carcinogenic components, and support a more circular economic option for wastewater treatment. A techno-economic analysis for three 10 MGD wastewater treatment operations producing roughly 11,300 dry pounds of biosolids per day, in conjunction with co-feedstock defatted soy flour protein at varying ratios (i.e., 0%, 15%, and 50% wet weight), was conducted. Aspen Capital Cost Estimator V12 was used to design and estimate installed equipment additions for wastewater treatment plant integration into an urban biorefinery process. Due to the mechanical attributes and market competition, the chosen selling prices of each adhesive per pound were set for analysis as USD 0.75 for Plant Option P1, USD 0.85 for Plant Option P2, and USD 1.00 for Plant Option P3. Over a 20-year life, each plant option demonstrated economic viability with high NPVs of USD 107.9M, USD 178.7M, and USD 502.2M and internal rates of return (IRRs) of 24.0%, 29.0%, and 44.2% respectively. The options examined have low production costs of USD 0.14 and USD 0.19 per pound, minimum selling prices of USD 0.42–USD 0.51 per pound, resulting in between 2- and 4-year payback periods. Sensitivity analysis shows the effects biosolid production fluctuations, raw material market price, and adhesive selling price have on economics. The results proved profitable even with large variations in the feedstock and raw material prices, requiring low market selling prices to reach the hurdle rate of examination. This technology is economically enticing, and the positive environmental impact of waste utilization encourages further development and analysis of the bio-adhesive process. Full article

Non-Newtonian debris flows represent a critical challenge for hydraulic infrastructure in mountainous regions, often causing significant damage and service disruption. However, current models typically simplify these flows as Newtonian, leading to inaccurate design assumptions. This study addresses this gap by comparing the hydraulic behavior of Newtonian and non-Newtonian flows in an alluvial fan, using the Amoray Gully in Apurímac, Peru, as a case study. This gully intersects the Interoceánica Sur national highway via a low-water crossing (baden), making it a relevant site for evaluating debris flow impacts on critical road infrastructure. The methodology integrates hydrological analysis, rheological characterization, and hydraulic modeling. QGIS 3.16 was used for watershed delineation and extraction of physiographic parameters, while a high-resolution topographic survey was conducted using an RTK drone. Rainfall-runoff modeling was performed in HEC-HMS 4.7 using 25 years of precipitation data, and hydraulic simulations were executed in HEC-RAS 6.6, incorporating rheological parameters and calibrated with the footprint of a historical event (5-year return period). Results show that traditional Newtonian models underestimate flow depth by 17% and overestimate velocity by 54%, primarily due to unaccounted particle-collision effects. Based on these findings, a multi-barrel circular culvert was designed to improve debris flow management. This study provides a replicable modeling framework for debris-prone watersheds and contributes to improving design standards in complex terrain. The proposed methodology and findings offer practical guidance for hydraulic design in mountainous terrain affected by debris flows, especially where infrastructure intersects active alluvial fans. Full article

Straw mulching is an important strategy for regulating soil moisture, nutrient availability, and thermal conditions in agricultural systems. However, the mechanisms by which the mulching period, thickness, and planting density interact to influence yield formation in wheat–soybean rotation systems remain insufficiently understood. In this study, we systematically examined the combined effects of straw mulching at the seedling and jointing stages of winter wheat, as well as varying mulching thicknesses and soybean planting densities, on soil properties and crop yields through field experiments. The experimental design included straw mulching treatments during the seedling stage (T₁) and the jointing stage (T₂) of winter wheat, with soybean planting densities classified as low (D₁, 1.8 × 10⁵ plants·ha⁻¹) and high (D₂, 3.6 × 10⁵ plants·ha⁻¹). Mulching thicknesses were set at low (S₁, 2830.19 kg·ha⁻¹), medium (S₂, 8490.57 kg·ha⁻¹), and high (S₃, 14,150.95 kg·ha⁻¹), in addition to a no-mulch control (CK) for each treatment. The results demonstrated that (1) straw mulching significantly increased soil water content in the order S₃ > S₂ > S₁ > CK and exerted a temperature-buffering effect. This resulted in increases in soil organic carbon, available phosphorus, and available potassium by 1.88−71.95%, 1.36−165.8%, and 1.92−36.34%, respectively, while decreasing available nitrogen content by 1.42−17.98%. (2) The T₁ treatments increased wheat yields by 1.22% compared to the control, while the T₂ treatments resulted in a 23.83% yield increase. Soybean yields increased by 23.99% under D₁ and by 36.22% under D₂ treatments. (3) Structural equation modeling indicated that straw mulching influenced yields by modifying interactions among soil organic carbon, available nitrogen, available phosphorus, available potassium, bulk density, soil temperature, and soil water content. Wheat yields were primarily regulated by the synergistic effects of soil temperature, water content, and available potassium, whereas soybean yields were determined by the dynamic balance between organic carbon and available potassium. This study provides empirical evidence to inform the optimization of straw return practices in wheat–soybean rotation systems. Full article

Located on the northern side of the China–Pakistan Highway in the Pamir Plateau, Laqi Gully represents a typical rainfall–meltwater coupled debris flow gully. During 2020–2024, seven debris flow events occurred in this area, four of which disrupted traffic and posed significant threats to the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The hazard assessment of debris flows constitutes a crucial component in disaster prevention and mitigation. However, current research presents two critical limitations: traditional models primarily focus on single precipitation-driven debris flows, while low-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) inadequately characterize the topographic features of alpine narrow valleys. Addressing these issues, this study employed GF-7 satellite stereo image pairs to construct a 1 m resolution DEM and systematically simulated debris flow propagation processes under 10–100-year recurrence intervals using a coupled rainfall–meltwater model. The results show the following: (1) The mudslide develops rapidly in the gully section, and the flow velocity decays when it reaches the highway. (2) At highway cross-sections, maximum velocities corresponding to 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals measure 2.57 m/s, 2.75 m/s, 3.02 m/s, and 3.36 m/s, respectively, with maximum flow depths of 1.56 m, 1.78 m, 2.06 m, and 2.52 m. (3) Based on the hazard classification model of mudslide intensity and return period, the high-, medium-, and low-hazard sections along the highway were 58.65 m, 27.36 m, and 24.1 m, respectively. This research establishes a novel hazard assessment methodology for rainfall–meltwater coupled debris flows in narrow valleys, providing technical support for debris flow mitigation along the CPEC. The outcomes demonstrate significant practical value for advancing infrastructure sustainability under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Full article

Under the frequent occurrence of urban waterlogging disasters globally, underground spaces, due to their unique environmental conditions and structural vulnerabilities, are facing growing flood pressure, resulting in substantial economic losses that hinder sustainable urban development. This study focused on a high-density urban area in China, investigating surface waterlogging conditions under rainfall characteristics as the primary driver of flooding. Focusing on the main nodes—entrances and exits—within the waterlogging disaster chain of underground garages, a risk assessment framework was constructed that encompasses three key dimensions: the attributes of extreme rainfall, the structural characteristics of entrances/exits, and emergency response capacities. Subsequently, a waterlogging risk assessment was conducted for selected underground garages in the study area under a 100-year return period extreme rainfall scenario. The results revealed that the flood depth at entrances/exits and the structural height of entrances/exits are the primary factors influencing flood risk in urban underground garages. Under this simulation scenario, 37.5% of the entrances and exits exhibited varying degrees of flood risk. The assessment framework and indicator system developed in this study provide valuable insights for flood risk evaluation in underground garage systems and offer decision-makers a more scientific and robust foundation for formulating improvement measures. Full article

With rising energy costs and the need for sustainable power solutions in urban South African settings, grid-tied renewable energy systems have become viable alternatives for reducing dependence on traditional grid supply. This study investigates the techno-economic feasibility of a grid-connected hybrid photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage system designed for a commercial facility located in Johannesburg, South Africa—an area characterized by a subtropical highland climate. We conducted the analysis using the HOMER Grid software and evaluated the performance of the proposed PV/battery system against the baseline grid-only configuration. Simulation results indicate that the optimal systems, comprising 337 kW of flat-plate PV and 901 kWh of lithium-ion battery storage, offers a significant reduction in electricity expenditure, lowering the annual utility cost from $39,229 to $897. The system demonstrates a simple payback period of less than two years and achieves a net present value (NPV) of approximately $449,491 over a 25-year project lifespan. In addition to delivering substantial cost savings, the proposed configuration also enhances energy resilience. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of variables such as inflation rate, discount rate, and load profile fluctuations on system performance and economic returns. The results affirm the suitability of hybrid grid-tied PV/battery systems for cost-effective, sustainable urban energy solutions in climates with high solar potential. Full article

Urban growth has intensified the generation of solid waste, particularly in densely populated and vulnerable neighborhoods, leading to environmental degradation and public health risks. This study presents a multidisciplinary methodology to estimate the mass of macroplastic litter mobilized from urban surfaces into nearby watercourses during storm events. Focusing on the Villa Páez neighborhood in Cordoba, Argentina—a data-scarce and flood-prone urban basin—the approach integrates socio-environmental surveys, field observations, Google Street View analysis, and hydrologic modeling using EPA SWMM 5.2. Macroplastic accumulation on streets was estimated based on observed waste density, and its transport under varying garbage collection intervals and rainfall intensities was simulated using a conceptual pollutant model. Results indicate that plastic mobilization increases substantially with storm intensity and accumulation duration, with the majority of macroplastic mass transported during high-return-period rainfall events. The study highlights the need for frequent waste collection, improved monitoring in vulnerable urban areas, and scenario-based modeling tools to support more effective waste and stormwater management. Full article

This study evaluates and compares centralized and distributed reactive power compensation strategies using Static Var Compensators (SVCs) to enhance the performance of a high-voltage transmission system in the Caribbean region of Colombia. The methodology comprises four stages: system characterization, assessment of the uncompensated condition under peak demand, definition of four SVC-based scenarios, and steady-state analysis through power flow simulations using DIgSILENT PowerFactory. SVCs were modeled as Thyristor-Controlled Devices (“SVC Type 1”) operating as PV nodes for voltage regulation. The evaluated scenarios include centralized SVCs at the Slack node, node N4, and node N20, as well as a distributed scheme across load nodes N51 to N55. Node selection was guided by power flow analysis, identifying voltage drops below 0.9 pu and overloads above 125%. Technically, the distributed strategy outperformed the centralized alternatives, reducing active power losses by 37.5%, reactive power exchange by 46.1%, and improving node voltages from 0.71 pu to values above 0.92 pu while requiring only 437 MVAr of compensation compared to 600 MVAr in centralized cases. Economically, the distributed configuration achieved the highest annual energy savings (36 GWh), the greatest financial return (USD 5.94 M/year), and the shortest payback period (7.4 years), highlighting its cost-effectiveness. This study’s novelty lies in its system-level comparison of SVC deployment strategies under real operating constraints. The results demonstrate that distributed compensation not only improves technical performance but also provides a financially viable solution for enhancing grid reliability in infrastructure-limited transmission systems. Full article

The objective of this paper is to analyse profitability and risk through the return on equity (ROE) measure of the open economy insurance sector in a non-stable economic period with an economic shock chain, during the years 2018–2022, characterised by an overheating economy, the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and a high-inflation wave. The ROE pyramid decomposition structure is proposed, along with the detailed CARAMEL version. A static and risk (dynamic) decomposition deviation analysis is used. The yearly non-stable drivers of insurance sector profitability deviation were confirmed. Despite this, the most influential were the earnings ratio deviations in either increasing or decreasing ROE alternatives. Solvency positively influenced the ROE deviation. It turned out that earnings and asset quality enormously increase the risk of the insurance sector. Conversely, risk is decreased mainly by liquidity and management. Simultaneously, significant, influential factors were identified. The results can serve as a background for carrying out operations, strategic analysis, and decision-making. Full article