Search Results (2,078)

Massachusetts Bay in the northeastern United States is highly vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA) due to reduced buffering capacity from significant freshwater inputs. We hypothesize that acidification varies across temporal and spatial scales, with short-term variability driven by seasonal biological respiration, precipitation–evaporation balance, and river discharge, and long-term changes linked to global warming and river flux shifts. These patterns arise from complex nonlinear interactions between physical and biogeochemical processes. To investigate OA variability, we applied the Northeast Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Model (NeBEM), a fully coupled three-dimensional physical–biogeochemical system, to Massachusetts Bay and Boston Harbor. Numerical simulation was performed for 2016. Assimilating satellite-derived sea surface temperature and sea surface height improved NeBEM’s ability to reproduce observed seasonal and spatial variability in stratification, mixing, and circulation. The model accurately simulated seasonal changes in nutrients, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, and pH. The model results suggest that nearshore areas were consistently more susceptible to OA, especially during winter and spring. Mechanistic analysis revealed contrasting processes between shallow inner and deeper outer bay waters. In the inner bay, partial pressure of pCO₂ (pCO₂) and aragonite saturation (Ω_a) were influenced by sea temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and total alkalinity (TA). TA variability was driven by nitrification and denitrification, while DIC was shaped by advection and net community production (NCP). In the outer bay, pCO₂ was controlled by temperature and DIC, and Ω_a was primarily determined by DIC variability. TA changes were linked to NCP and nitrification–denitrification, with DIC also influenced by air–sea gas exchange. Full article

Atmospheric warming results in increase in temperatures for the mean, the coldest, and the hottest day of the year, season, or month. Global warming leads to a large increase in the atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. Using the GISS-E2.1 climate model, we present the future changes in the coldest and hottest daily temperatures as well as in extreme precipitation indices (under four main Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)). The increase in the wet-day precipitation ranges between 6% and 15% per 1 °C global surface temperature warming. Scaling of the 95th percentile versus the total precipitation showed that the sensitivity for the extreme precipitation to the warming is about 10 times stronger than that for the mean total precipitation. For six precipitation extreme indices (Total Precipitation, R95p, RX5day, R10mm, SDII, and CDD), the histograms of probability density functions become flatter, with reduced peaks and increased spread for the global mean compared to the historical period of 1850–2014. The mean values shift to the right end (toward larger precipitation and intensity). The higher the GHG emission of the SSP scenario, the more significant the increase in the index change. We found an intensification of precipitation over the globe but large uncertainties remained regionally and at different scales, especially for extremes. Over land, there is a strong increase in precipitation for the wettest day in all seasons over the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. There is an enlargement of the drying patterns in the subtropics including over large regions around Mediterranean, southern Africa, and western Eurasia. For the continental averages, the reduction in total precipitation was found for South America, Europe, Africa, and Australia, and there is an increase in total precipitation over North America, Asia, and the continental Russian Arctic. Over the continental Russian Arctic, there is an increase in all precipitation extremes and a consistent decrease in CDD for all SSP scenarios, with the maximum increase of more than 90% for R95p and R10 mm observed under SSP5–8.5. Full article

Change in sea level (SL) is an important indicator of global warming, since it reflects alterations in several components of the climate system at once. The main factors behind this phenomenon are the melting of glaciers and thermal expansion of ocean water, with the latter contributing about 40% to the overall rise in SL. Rising SL indirectly indicates an increase in ocean heat content and, consequently, its surface temperature. Previous studies have found that tropical sea surface temperature (SST) is critical to regulating the Earth’s climate and weather patterns in high and mid-latitudes. For this reason, SST and SL in the tropics can be considered as precursors of both global climate change and the emergence of climate anomalies in extratropical latitudes. Although SST has been used in this capacity in a number of studies, similar research regarding SL had not been conducted until recently. In this paper, we examine the links between SL in the tropical North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans and surface air temperature (SAT) at mid- and high latitudes, with the aim of assessing the potential of SL as a predictor in forecasting SAT anomalies. To identify similarities between the variability of tropical SL and SST and that of SAT in high- and mid-latitude regions, as well as to estimate possible time lags, we applied factor analysis, clustering, cross-correlation and cross-spectral analyses. The results reveal a structural similarity in the internal variability of tropical SL and extratropical SAT, along with a significant lagged relationship between them, with a time lag of several years. Full article

Land cover, topography, precipitation, and socio-economic factors exert both direct and indirect influences on urban land surface temperatures. Within the broader context of global climate change, these influences are magnified by the escalating intensity of the urban heat island effect. However, the interplay and underlying mechanisms of natural and socio-economic determinants of land surface temperatures remain inadequately explored, particularly in the context of cold-region cities located in the northern temperate zone of China. This study focuses on Changchun City, employing multispectral remote sensing imagery to derive and spatially map the distribution of land surface temperatures and topographic attributes. Through comprehensive analysis, the research identifies the principal drivers of temperature variations and delineates their seasonal dynamics. The findings indicate that population density, night-time light intensity, land use, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), relief, and elevation exhibit positive correlations with land surface temperature, whereas slope demonstrates a negative correlation. Among natural factors, the correlations of slope, relief, and elevation with land surface temperature are comparatively weak, with determination coefficients (R²) consistently below 0.15. In contrast, socio-economic factors exert a more pronounced influence, ranked as follows: population density (R² = 0.4316) > GDP (R² = 0.2493) > night-time light intensity (R² = 0.1626). The overall hierarchy of the impact of individual factors on the temperature model, from strongest to weakest, is as follows: population, night-time light intensity, land use, GDP, slope, relief, and elevation. In examining Changchun and analogous cold-region cities within the northern temperate zone, the research underscores that socio-economic factors substantially outweigh natural determinants in shaping urban land surface temperatures. Notably, human activities catalyzed by population growth emerge as the most influential factor, profoundly reshaping the urban thermal landscape. These activities not only directly escalate anthropogenic heat emissions, but also alter land cover compositions, thereby undermining natural cooling mechanisms and exacerbating the urban heat island phenomenon. Full article

Amidst the intensification of global climate change and the increasing impacts of human activities, ecosystem patterns and processes have undergone substantial transformations. The distribution and evolutionary dynamics of mountain ecosystems have become a focal point in ecological research. The Surkhan River Basin is located in the transitional zone between the arid inland regions of Central Asia and the mountain systems, where its unique physical and geographical conditions have shaped distinct patterns of vertical zonation. Utilizing Landsat imagery, this study applies a hierarchical classification approach to derive land cover classifications within the Surkhan River Basin. By integrating the NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) and DEM (digital elevation model (30 m SRTM)), an “NDVI-DEM-Land Cover” scatterplot is constructed to analyze zonation characteristics from 1980 to 2020. The 2020 results indicate that the elevation boundary between the temperate desert and mountain grassland zones is 1100 m, while the boundary between the alpine cushion vegetation zone and the ice/snow zone is 3770 m. Furthermore, leveraging DEM and LST (land surface temperature) data, a potential energy analysis model is employed to quantify potential energy differentials between adjacent zones, enabling the identification of ecological transition areas. The potential energy analysis further refines the transition zone characteristics, indicating that the transition zone between the temperate desert and mountain grassland zones spans 1078–1139 m with a boundary at 1110 m, while the transition between the alpine cushion vegetation and ice/snow zones spans 3729–3824 m with a boundary at 3768 m. Cross-validation with scatterplot results confirms that the scatterplot analysis effectively delineates stable zonation boundaries with strong spatiotemporal consistency. Moreover, the potential energy analysis offers deeper insights into ecological transition zones, providing refined boundary identification. The integration of these two approaches addresses the dimensional limitations of traditional vertical zonation studies, offering a transferable methodological framework for mountain ecosystem research. Full article

Today, urban areas have started to grow and expand with the urbanization and industrialization processes brought about by rapid population growth. The increase in urban density brought about by this growth process has led to the destruction of natural areas and created surfaces such as concrete, asphalt, etc., that absorb solar energy. The expansion/proliferation of impervious surfaces in the city has changed the urban climate in the direction of temperature increase compared to the surrounding rural areas. When this change is combined with the temperature increases due to global climate change, it creates urban heat islands, especially in high density areas, and directly affects land surface temperatures. In this study, ground surface temperature analysis for the years 2012–2022 was carried out in order to determine the temperature changes in Denizli city. As a result of the analysis, eight urban textures with different characteristics with very high and high temperature increase were determined. Analyses were made in the context of urban heat island criteria in the determined textures, and the effect of the settlement pattern on urban heat island formation was examined by making use of the analysis results and related literature findings. Full article

The long-term trend of coastal upwelling under global warming has been a research focus in recent years. Based on datasets including sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface wind, air–sea heat fluxes, ocean currents, and sea level pressure, this study explores the long-term trend and underlying mechanisms of the Oman coastal upwelling intensity in summer during 1993–2018. The results indicate a persistent decrease in SST within the Oman upwelling region during this period, suggesting an intensification trend of Oman upwelling. This trend is primarily driven by the strengthened positive wind stress curl (WSC), while the enhanced net shortwave radiation flux at the sea surface partially suppresses the SST cooling induced by the strengthened positive WSC, and the effect of horizontal oceanic heat transport is weak. Further analysis revealed that the increasing trend in the positive WSC results from the nonuniform responses of sea level pressure and the associated surface winds to global warming. There is an increasing trend in sea level pressure over the western Arabian Sea, coupled with decreasing atmospheric pressure over the Arabian Peninsula and the Somali Peninsula. This enhances the atmospheric pressure gradient between land and sea, and consequently strengthens the alongshore winds off the Oman coast. However, in the coastal region, wind changes are less pronounced, resulting in an insignificant trend in the alongshore component of surface wind. Consequently, it results in the increasing positive WSC over the Oman upwelling region, and sustains the intensification trend of Oman coastal upwelling. Full article

Creating a comfortable microclimate in the premises of buildings is currently becoming one of the priorities in the field of architecture, construction and engineering systems. The increased attention from the scientific community to this topic is due not only to the desire to ensure healthy and favorable conditions for human life but also to the need for the rational use of energy resources. This area is becoming particularly relevant in the context of global challenges related to climate change, rising energy costs and increased environmental requirements. Practice shows that any technical solutions to ensure comfortable temperature, humidity and air exchange in rooms should be closely linked to the concept of energy efficiency. This allows one not only to reduce operating costs but also to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby contributing to sustainable development and environmental safety. In this connection, this study presents a parametric assessment of the influence of climatic and geometric factors on the aerodynamic characteristics of the air cavity, which affect the heat exchange process in the ventilated layer of curtain wall systems. The assessment was carried out using a combined analytical calculation method that provides averaged thermophysical parameters, such as mean air velocity ($V_s$), average internal surface temperature ($t_{in.s}^{av}$), and convective heat transfer coefficient (${\alpha }_s$) within the air cavity. This study resulted in empirical average values, demonstrating that the air velocity within the cavity significantly depends on atmospheric pressure and façade height difference. For instance, a 10-fold increase in façade height leads to a 4.4-fold increase in air velocity. Furthermore, a three-fold variation in local resistance coefficients results in up to a two-fold change in airflow velocity. The cavity thickness, depending on atmospheric pressure, was also found to affect airflow velocity by up to 25%. Similar patterns were observed under ambient temperatures of +20 °C, +30 °C, and +40 °C. The analysis confirmed that airflow velocity is directly affected by cavity height, while the impact of solar radiation is negligible. However, based on the outcomes of the analytical model, it was concluded that the method does not adequately account for the effects of solar radiation and vertical temperature gradients on airflow within ventilated façades. This highlights the need for further full-scale experimental investigations under hot climate conditions in South Kazakhstan. The findings are expected to be applicable internationally to regions with comparable climatic characteristics. Ultimately, a correct understanding of thermophysical processes in such structures will support the advancement of trends such as Lightweight Design, Functionally Graded Design, and Value Engineering in the development of curtain wall systems, through the optimized selection of façade configurations, accounting for temperature loads under specific climatic and design conditions. Full article

Under global warming, persistent extreme heat events (PHEs) in China have increased significantly in both frequency and intensity, posing severe threats to agriculture and socioeconomic development. Combining observational analysis (1961–2019) and numerical simulations, this study investigates the distinct impacts of Northwest Pacific (NWP) and North Atlantic (NA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on PHEs over China. Key findings include the following: (1) PHEs exhibit heterogeneous spatial distribution, with the Yangtze-Huai River Valley as the hotspot showing the highest frequency and intensity. A regime shift occurred post-2000, marked by a threefold increase in extreme indices (+3σ to +4σ). (2) Observational analyses reveal significant but independent correlations between PHEs and SST anomalies in the tropical NWP and mid-high latitude NA. (3) Numerical experiments demonstrate that NWP warming triggers a meridional dipole response (warming in southern China vs. cooling in the north) via the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern, characterized by an eastward-retreated and southward-shifted sub-tropical high (WPSH) coupled with an intensified South Asian High (SAH). In contrast, NA warming induces uniform warming across eastern China through a Eurasian Rossby wave train that modulates the WPSH northward. (4) Thermodynamically, NWP forcing dominates via asymmetric vertical motion and advection processes, while NA forcing primarily enhances large-scale subsidence and shortwave radiation. This study elucidates region-specific oceanic drivers of extreme heat, advancing mechanistic understanding for improved heatwave predictability. Full article

In recent years, China has experienced growing impacts from extreme weather events, emphasizing the importance of understanding regional atmospheric moisture dynamics, particularly Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), to support sustainable environmental and urban planning. This study utilizes ten years (2013–2022) of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations in typical cities in eastern China and proposes a comprehensive multiscale frequency-domain analysis framework that integrates the Fourier transform, Bayesian spectral estimation, and wavelet decomposition to extract the dominant PWV periodicities. Time-series analysis reveals an overall increasing trend in PWV across most regions, with notably declining trends in Beijing, Wuhan, and southern Taiwan, primarily attributed to groundwater depletion, rapid urban expansion, and ENSO-related anomalies, respectively. Frequency-domain results indicate distinct latitudinal and coastal–inland differences in the PWV periodicities. Inland stations (Beijing, Changchun, and Wuhan) display annual signals alongside weaker semi-annual components, while coastal stations (Shanghai, Kinmen County, Hong Kong, and Taiwan) mainly exhibit annual cycles. High-latitude stations show stronger seasonal and monthly fluctuations, mid-latitude stations present moderate-scale changes, and low-latitude regions display more diverse medium- and short-term fluctuations. In the short-term frequency domain, GNSS stations in most regions demonstrate significant PWV periodic variations over 0.5 days, 1 day, or both timescales, except for Changchun, where weak diurnal patterns are attributed to local topography and reduced solar radiation. Furthermore, ERA5-derived vertical temperature profiles are incorporated to reveal the thermodynamic mechanisms driving these variations, underscoring region-specific controls on surface evaporation and atmospheric moisture capacity. These findings offer novel insights into how human-induced environmental changes modulate the behavior of atmospheric water vapor. Full article

Under the dual pressures of global climate warming and rapid urbanization, the Yangtze River Basin, as the world’s largest urban agglomeration, is facing intensifying thermal environmental stress. Although river ecosystems demonstrate significant thermal regulation functions, their spatial thresholds of cooling effects and multiscale driving mechanisms have remained to be systematically elucidated. This study retrieved land surface temperature (LST) using the split window algorithm and quantitatively analyzed the changes in the river cold island effect and its driving mechanisms in the Yangtze River Basin by combining multi-ring buffer analysis and the optimal parameter-based geographical detector model. The results showed that (1) forest land is the main land use type in the Yangtze River Basin, with built-up land having the largest area increase. Affected by natural, socioeconomic, and meteorological factors, the summer temperatures displayed a spatial pattern of “higher in the east than the west, warmer in the south than the north”. (2) There are significant differences in the cooling magnitude among different land types. Forest land has the maximum daytime cooling distance (589 m), while construction land has the strongest cooling magnitude (1.72 °C). The cooling effect magnitude is most pronounced in upstream areas of the basin, reaching 0.96 °C. At the urban agglomeration scale, the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration shows the greatest temperature reduction of 0.90 °C. (3) Elevation consistently demonstrates the highest explanatory power for LST spatial variability. Interaction analysis shows that the interaction between socioeconomic factors and elevation is generally the strongest. This study provides important spatial decision support for formulating basin-scale ecological thermal regulation strategies based on refined spatial layout optimization, hierarchical management and control, and a “natural–societal” dual-dimensional synergistic regulation system. Full article

Atmospheric climate science lacks the capacity to integrate thermodynamics with the gravitational potential of air in a classical quantum theory. To what extent can we identify Carnot’s ideal heat engine cycle in reversible isothermal and isentropic phases between dual temperatures partitioning heat flow with coupled work processes in the atmosphere? Using statistical action mechanics to describe Carnot’s cycle, the maximum rate of work possible can be integrated for the working gases as equal to variations in the absolute Gibbs energy, estimated as sustaining field quanta consistent with Carnot’s definition of heat as caloric. His treatise of 1824 even gave equations expressing work potential as a function of differences in temperature and the logarithm of the change in density and volume. Second, Carnot’s mechanical principle of cooling caused by gas dilation or warming by compression can be applied to tropospheric heat–work cycles in anticyclones and cyclones. Third, the virial theorem of Lagrange and Clausius based on least action predicts a more accurate temperature gradient with altitude near 6.5–6.9 °C per km, requiring that the Gibbs rotational quantum energies of gas molecules exchange reversibly with gravitational potential. This predicts a diminished role for the radiative transfer of energy from the atmosphere to the surface, in contrast to the Trenberth global radiative budget of ≈330 watts per square metre as downwelling radiation. The spectral absorptivity of greenhouse gas for surface radiation into the troposphere enables thermal recycling, sustaining air masses in Lagrangian action. This obviates the current paradigm of cooling with altitude by adiabatic expansion. The virial-action theorem must also control non-reversible heat–work Carnot cycles, with turbulent friction raising the surface temperature. Dissipative surface warming raises the surface pressure by heating, sustaining the weight of the atmosphere to varying altitudes according to latitude and seasonal angles of insolation. New predictions for experimental testing are now emerging from this virial-action hypothesis for climate, linking vortical energy potential with convective and turbulent exchanges of work and heat, proposed as the efficient cause setting the thermal temperature of surface materials. Full article

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as the dominant mode of decadal sea surface temperature variability in the North Pacific, exhibits both interannual and decadal fluctuations that significantly influence global climate. The complexity associated with PDO changes poses challenges for accurate predictions. This study develops a BiLSTM-WOA-MMD (BWM) model, which integrates a bidirectional long short-term memory network with a whale optimization algorithm (WOA) and multiple modal decomposition (MMD), to forecast PDO at both interannual and decadal time scales. The model successfully predicts monthly/annual average PDO index of up to 15 months/5 years in advance, achieving a correlation coefficient of 0.56/0.55. By utilizing the WOA to effectively optimize hyperparameters, the model enhances the PDO prediction skill compared to existing deep learning PDO prediction models, improving the correlation coefficient from 0.47 to 0.68 at a 6-month lead time. The combination of MMD and WOA further minimizes prediction errors and extends the forecasting effective time to 15 months by capturing essential modes. The BWM model can be employed for future PDO prediction and the predicted PDO will remain in its cool phase in the next year both using the PDO index from NECI and derived from near-time satellite data. This proposed model offers an effective way to advance the prediction skill of climate variability on multiple time scales by utilizing all kinds of data available including satellite data, and provides a large-scale background to monitor marine heatwaves. Full article

Metallic nanofoams with amorphous structures demonstrate exceptional properties and significant potential for diverse applications. However, their mechanical properties at different temperatures are still unclear. By using molecular dynamics simulation, this study investigates the mechanical responses of representative CuZr amorphous metallic nanofoam (AMNF) under uniaxial tension and compression at various temperatures. Our results reveal that the mechanical properties, such as Young’s modulus, yield stress, and maximum stress, exhibit notable temperature sensitivity and tension–compression asymmetry. Under tensile loading, the Young’s modulus, yield strength, and peak stress exhibit significant reductions of approximately 30.5%, 33.3%, and 32.9%, respectively, as the temperature increases from 100 K to 600 K. Similarly, under compressive loading, these mechanical properties experience even greater declines, with the Young’s modulus, yield strength, and peak stress decreasing by about 34.5%, 38.0%, and 41.7% over the same temperature range. The tension–compression asymmetry in yield strength is temperature independent. Interestingly, the tension–compression asymmetry in elastic modulus becomes more pronounced at elevated temperatures, which is attributed to the influence of surface energy effects. This phenomenon is further amplified by the increased disparity in surface-area-to-volume ratio variations between tensile and compressive loading at higher temperatures. Additionally, as the temperature rises, despite material softening, the structural resistance under large tensile strains improves due to delayed ligament degradation and more uniform deformation distribution, delaying global failure. Full article

Global warming raises surface water temperatures, impacting fish alongside pollutants, such as ubiquitous xenoestrogens. Combined stressor effects are poorly studied but likely to worsen impacts and hinder biota adaptation, warranting further research. Unadapted fish face heightened risks. The liver is a vital metabolic organ, sensitive to temperature and xenoestrogens, eventually adjusting hepatocyte size and number to ensure survival, growth, and reproduction. This study assessed, for the first time, the impact of exposure (45 days) to thermal stress (29 °C versus 26 °C) and ethinylestradiol (EE2, 5 ng/L) on male guppies, primarily on body and quantitative liver morphology. Higher temperature reduced body mass (14%) and standard length (3.6%) gain. EE2 exposure reduced body mass increase (14%), hepatosomatic index (20%), and the volumes of the liver (32%), hepatocytes (16%), and their nuclei (17%). The nucleus-to-cytoplasm ratio and total hepatocyte number remained stable. No histopathological lesions existed. Guppies appear to have adapted to stressors by reducing hepatocyte size and utilizing lipid reserves, yet they exhibited deficits in body growth and hepatosomatic index. Gonadal maturation was unaffected. Only under EE2 at 29 °C did hepatocytes show minimal lipid droplet content (less vacuolation). This indicated exhausted reserves, reinforcing how heat and toxicants interact to exacerbate impacts. Full article